Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

[Cramer]

It's foolish to base a team's offense on a fast break attack. Fast breaks are rarely available in the playoffs when it matters. Opponents are too well-rested and they scout better.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

heads up to anybody with D.Williams at #1 in the contest, lol...

The Cavs are committed to taking Duke PG Kyrie Irving No. 1 overall in Thursday's draft, sources tell ESPN.com

[J-Blaze]

am i the only one here who really thinks somehow we will end up with derrick williams on thursday?

[Severn Hoos]

Back in 2003, our intrepid leader and founder (jro, rest his soul - oh wait, he's not actually dead. Sorry about that, Jason) was crazy - or desperate - enough to let some of the regulars write columns for the site. Leading up to the 2003 Draft Lottery, I wrote one that Jason then sent to David Stern - and knock me over with a feather, got a response! Well, I was stumbling through some old files and found it today. Fun trip down memory lane (well, for me anyway. Most of you probably won't care.) Pretty long, but hope you enjoy - or just pretend it's a WizD post. (I kid, WD - I kid.)



At the end of the 1982-83 season, the Houston Rockets were finishing a very disappointing season. Less than three years removed from the NBA Finals, the Rockets were in contention for the League’s worst record. The light at the end of the tunnel? By finishing so poorly, the Rockets “earned” the opportunity to draft the much-heralded Ralph Sampson with the first overall pick in the 1983 draft.

But then a funny thing happened. The Rockets did not get much better during the ’83-84 season, and found themselves once more out of the playoffs as the season wound down. They continued to lose, and their record dropped toward the bottom of the League yet again. Were they worn out from another disappointing season? Give up on their coach? Or did they figure out that another season with the worst record would give them the top pick yet again, and the chance to install the ultimate “Twin Towers”, Sampson and Akeem Olajuwon?

Regardless of the Rockets’ motivation (or lack thereof), they did indeed get the top pick again, and selected hometown hero Olajuwon (we won’t bring up the shooting guard that went third to the Bulls that year…). Fans, sportswriters, and even casual observers all wondered if the late-season losing trend that the Rockets endured could possibly have had anything to do with the chance to draft Olajuwon. The NBA saw a definite problem – by simply giving the top pick to the team that finishes with the worst record, they reward a team for losses, and inadvertently provide incentive for bad teams to lose games on purpose. The integrity of the League suffered from these whispers, and the NBA decided to do something about it.

Enter the Draft Lottery. It seemed like a perfect solution. Give all the teams that don’t make the playoffs an equal chance at the top pick. This would eliminate the incentive for non-playoff teams to lose intentionally, and restore credibility to the process. Yeah, that’s it - the Lottery will restore credibility. Plus, it’s a made-for-TV event that will hold the interest of NBA fans, even if the teams involved have long since gone fishing for the summer.

The Lottery was put in place in time for the 1985 draft. This was fortunate, because 1985 saw the arrival of perhaps the best Big Man prospect in a generation. Most felt that Patrick Ewing would be better than Sampson and Olajuwon, maybe better than any big man since Wilt, Russell, and Alcindor. Without a Lottery, it would be a disaster to watch teams fall all over themselves to lose on purpose, trying to get the worst record and the right to draft Ewing.

So which team won that first lottery, with the guaranteed championships that would accompany Ewing’s arrival? By an amazing coincidence, the team from the nation’s biggest market – the New York Knicks – won that lottery. And this despite the fact that they had the best record among non-playoff teams, indicating that they were the least needy of the original Lottery 7. The team with the worst record? The Golden State Warriors, who fell all the way to #7 – the lowest possible pick.

You didn’t have to be Oliver Stone to see a dark conspiracy behind the whole event. The best prospect in a generation, a new procedure put in place by the NBA, and the top market wins the prize. Stories abounded that the League placed the Knicks’ envelope in a freezer prior to the event, ensuring that David Stern would know which one to pick, and that the Knicks would return to their glory days.

But it doesn't stop there - many years have had a "story" from the lottery. That is, a plausible scenario that would indicate why a team moved up to the top of the draft board. Consider the following:

1986: Boston and Philadelphia, the two premier Eastern Conference rivals of the 1980's, each acquire another team's lottery pick. Amazingly, they come up 1 and 2 in the lottery - a convenient influx of young talent to replace the old guard, or so it was thought. As it turned out, neither team ever suited up the players picked #1 & #2. The #1 pick (Brad Daugherty) was traded to Cleveland before the draft, and of course, the #2 pick was Len Bias.

1989: The first year of a growing trend. When the top of the draft looks like a load of dreck, give the pick to the wobegone franchises so that they don't complain as much when the really valuable players get sent to the important teams. Sacramento & the LA Clippers get the top two picks. Pervis Ellison and Danny Ferry. Yippee. (To add further insult, Ferry refuses to play for the Clipps, demanding a trade - while Pervis is sent to the Bermuda Triangle, I mean the Bullets, after only one year).

1990: The top pick goes to a team on the periphery of the largest market (NJ Nets). Unfortunately, the Nets pick Derrick Coleman over Gary Payton. Gary Coleman would have been as effective in bringing the Nets a championship as Derrick was.

1991: The start of another trend: Build up the preferred expansion teams. The NBA was desperate to have pro basketball thrive in the hotbed of College Basketball, North Carolina. Conveniently, the 2-year old Charlotte Hornets get the first pick (Larry Johnson). Then, for added measure, the league awards the #2 pick to the Nets. Several other back-to-back top 2 picks will follow, as the league tries to give some teams 2 shots to catch lightning in a bottle. The Nets go for the all-Head Case team and pick Kenny Anderson.

1992: Another preferred expansion team gets the top pick (Shaq to the Magic), while the Hornets find another present under the tree, in the form of the second pick (Alonzo Mourning). The black sheep of the lottery, the Minnesota Timberwolves, have to settle for the door prize, Dream Teamer Christian Laettner.

1993: For the first time, a team wins the Lottery in consecutive years, as the Magic beat the 1-in-66 odds. Despite having the best record among lottery teams, Orlando gets to reload even further. They go one step further and trade the top pick (Chris Webber) for the third pick (Penny Hardaway) and 3 future #1s. Meanwhile, the hapless 76ers receive their third top 3 pick in 7 years, but waste it on Shawn Bradley. Shortly after this lottery, the league changes the "rules" to make it more difficult for the better lottery teams to move up to the top.

1995: Fresh off the Chris Webber/Don Nelson fiasco, the Golden State Warriors are reeling. In steps David Stern to provide them with the #1 pick. Yet the Warriors pass on Garnett, McDyess, and Rasheed Wallace to take Joe Smith. They're still in the lottery to this day. The 76ers get their 4th top 3 pick in 9 years, and take our good friend Jerry Stackhouse. Someday they'll get it right…

1996: At long last, the 76ers finally do get it right. With their 5th top 3 pick in a decade, they take The Answer, Allen Iverson. David Stern never had to work so hard to force a successful draft upon a franchise.

1997: San Antonio suffers through an awful year as David Robinson goes down with an injury. Stern always had a soft spot for Robinson - League MVP, active volunteer, ideal spokesman, and all-around good guy. So what's more natural than pairing him with the next "nice guy" superstar? Mr. Robinson, meet Mr. Duncan. Philly gets another top 3 pick (surprise!), and gets essentially nothing out of it (bigger surprise!), as they take Keith Van Horn, then trade him (with a load of driftwood) for Tim Thomas (and a ham sandwich).

1998: Time to pay off the bad teams again. The draft has a lot of question marks, as Michael Olowakandi, Mike Bibby, and Raef Lafrentz line up as the top 3 picks. Since they don't look like anything special, those picks go to the Clippers, Grizzlies, and Nuggets. The irony is that the real All-Stars were hiding in the next 8 picks. Jamison, Carter, Nowitzki, Pierce, and Bonzi Wells all went between 4 and 11.

1999: Year 1 post-MJ finds the league suffering from a lockout and decreased attendance. But nowhere was the hit felt as hard as Chicago. Even if Jerry Krause did run off the dynasty, the Bulls were the most popular team for a decade, and Chicago is still the 3rd largest market. Gotta have a good team there - hence, the #1 pick. Meanwhile, Charlotte looks to be in trouble. Attendance is declining, the owner is threatening to move. But the new rules give a team with the best non-playoff record (as the Hornets had) just a 5-in-1000 chance to move to the top. No problem, it will look less suspicious if the come in 3rd. And they'll still get Baron Davis.

2000: Stern's former assistant Rod Thorn takes a job running the NJ Nets. The team is a perennial lottery team in need of help. No problem! How about the #1 pick? Kenyon Martin's a nice addition to start the rebuilding process. And since there's not much behind him (Stromile Swift, Darius Miles), why not throw a bone to the Grizzlies and Clippers?

2001: NBA attendance and ratings are down. MJ is talking about returning to the court. The Wizards get the top pick. Any questions?

2002: Everyone has this one penciled in for Yao Ming to go to either the Knicks or the Warriors, two large market teams with significant Chinese populations. But Houston? Hmm, must be a red herring to throw all us conspiracy hunters off the trail. Of course, giving the #2 pick (Jay Williams) to the Bulls....

So what will it be in 2003? Obviously, LeBron is the Grand Prize to be awarded Thursday night, but 2nd and 3rd aren’t too shabby, with Carmelo Anthony and Darko Milicic available. But when the top pick is perhaps the truest contender to the “Next Jordan” label, there will be a lot of interested parties vying for his services. So who will come out on top?

Maybe the Knicks, since they've been out of the playoffs for too long (2 years!) and the League needs a strong team in the Big Apple. The Cavs, to keep LeBron close to home, his Mama, and his Hummer? Coulda been the Wiz, as a going away/thank you present to MJ, but alas... Pat Riley has done a lot in the NBA, but his frosty relationship with the NBA office may just cause them to think twice about rewarding him with the next superstar. Maybe the Raptors, to help keep basketball alive and well in Canada – after all, Mr. Stern wants a truly international game.

My prediction? I believe the League will reward The Logo for his 4 decades of excellent service to the League. Jerry West is a champion on the court and in the Front Office. By all appearances, he is a decent person, who represents the League well (literally, in the form of his silhouette, which graces the NBA logo). He stepped in to run a dreadful Memphis franchise that hasn’t seen the light of day since its arrival into the league almost a decade ago. And to make matters worse, he’s handcuffed by a bad deal he inherited, in which he loses his first round pick unless it is the top overall selection.

You heard it here first – when Jerry West strolls across the floor to shake David Stern’s hand, you’ll know that the NBA has pulled it off again. After all, why else would West even bother going to the Lottery, when the “odds” say he has a 94% chance of leaving empty-handed, his valuable pick the property of the Pistons? No, this is the year the League finally decides the Grizzlies are worth supporting, and LeBron will have to get used to barbeque and country music. Of course, if it’s another team, I’ll be ready with the theory that explains it all.

[7-Day Dray]

OMG! I was watching the 2003 Draft yesterday on NBA TV, and when the Wizards were picking 10th, the ESPN Insider said that there was supposedly a 3-way deal between put in place between Washington, Seattle, and Miami. I believe he said Seattle would've gotten 2 draft picks, Miami would've gotten Kwame Brown, and that we would've gotten the #5 pick, but EFJ said he wanted to keep Kwame Brown! OMFG! We could've had DWYANE WADE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Him and Gil would've been very dynamic.

[LyricalRico]

OMG! I was watching the 2003 Draft yesterday on NBA TV, and when the Wizards were picking 10th, the ESPN Insider said that there was supposedly a 3-way deal between put in place between Washington, Seattle, and Miami. I believe he said Seattle would've gotten 2 draft picks, Miami would've gotten Kwame Brown, and that we would've gotten the #5 pick, but EFJ said he wanted to keep Kwame Brown! OMFG! We could've had DWYANE WADE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Him and Gil would've been very dynamic.

Yep, EFJ cost us Wade and Thibs. Despite the hate he gets from most, Ernie really was trying. But EFJ was Abe's guy and that limited what Ernie could do. Oh what could have been...

[Dat2U]

OMG! I was watching the 2003 Draft yesterday on NBA TV, and when the Wizards were picking 10th, the ESPN Insider said that there was supposedly a 3-way deal between put in place between Washington, Seattle, and Miami. I believe he said Seattle would've gotten 2 draft picks, Miami would've gotten Kwame Brown, and that we would've gotten the #5 pick, but EFJ said he wanted to keep Kwame Brown! OMFG! We could've had DWYANE WADE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Him and Gil would've been very dynamic.

I remember that. However I think Wes Unseld & La Sooz had their sights set on Michael Sweetney who went 9 that year if I remember correctly. Not sure if Wade was someone we would have considered especially since Abe had just given a nice sized extension to Jerry Stackhouse. Not to mention we had Larry Hughes on the roster as well.

[Dat2U]

OMG! I was watching the 2003 Draft yesterday on NBA TV, and when the Wizards were picking 10th, the ESPN Insider said that there was supposedly a 3-way deal between put in place between Washington, Seattle, and Miami. I believe he said Seattle would've gotten 2 draft picks, Miami would've gotten Kwame Brown, and that we would've gotten the #5 pick, but EFJ said he wanted to keep Kwame Brown! OMFG! We could've had DWYANE WADE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Him and Gil would've been very dynamic.

Yep, EFJ cost us Wade and Thibs. Despite the hate he gets from most, Ernie really was trying. But EFJ was Abe's guy and that limited what Ernie could do. Oh what could have been...

Ernie was drafting for Milwaukee at that time (he selected T.J. Ford). Wes Unseld was running the show for us with input from EFJ and probably others in the front office. Ernie was hired after the draft.

[hands11]

Brooks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v8W2pumHX8

I want this kid on the team. I think he would run great with Wall. A more mature Nick Young. I think most would agree that would be a great asset. Wall wants to be a PG more than a Derrick Rose type. And I think Crawford is the perfect hybrid back up PG who can also score when needed as a PG/SG. You need a solid SG who can shoot with range if you want to win and Brooks could be a star. He was a PG so he has handles.

That would make Nick, who is a great talent, trade bait this year or next if they want. I side with keeping him another year and storing up his trade value.

Wall, Brooks and Crawford would have a **** load of talent at the 1 and 2. And maybe for one year, you have Wall, Nick, Crawford and Brooks while Brooks learns the ropes. That would be sick.

I am leaning toward trading down the 6th or if they can purchase a pick so they can get another mid round pick so we can load up. They are not looking to win it all next year so load up.

There is lots of talent in this draft that I would like to see on this team and if we get the right players, it should help them trade or transition from other assets they already have such as Lewis, maybe Nick and maybe Dray. Doing this, in 2012 I see tons of assets and a great cap.

Tobias Harris seems like the perfect work horse glue guy multi position player. A sure value his projected slot.

Vucevic would be a good complement to help at center and some power forward.

Then add a pure shooter at SF in Harper.

Wall, Crawford
Nick, Brooks
Booker, Tobias, Harper
Dray, Lewis, Serpahin
McGee, Vucevic

Hamady, Jeffers and Tyler if you can get him by purchasing a pick.

Then you can transition from Lewis or trade Nick if it makes sense moving forward but until then, Lewis is insurance at SF also. Maybe even move Dray if Tyler is a beast. You could get some assets for Dray. Add that to Nick and you can get something good for Dray and Nick.

Captains are Wall and Lewis
Amazing guard play.
Two workers at SF and Tobias has a better shot. Lewis is the vet.
PF is set with Dray being the all around player. Lewis being the vet with long ball and Seraphin beef
Vuc rounds out McGee by putting a mature player down there with size. Plus Dray can play there.

Then you have Hamady growing up in the background as a shot blocking defensive center.
Tyler get to transition in the D league where they can see if he is a PF of the future.

This would be the most talent well rounded team we have had in maybe forever and it would set them up to move forward.

Come on really. I think it pretty hard to imagine that we end up with 4 1st round picks and most mocks have Brooks, Harris, Vucevic, and Harper graded as mid to late 1st rounders. It makes little sense to go into the year with TEN 1st and 2nd year players PLUS immature McGee and Blatche and mostly adolescent NY. That would leave Lewis as the only "adult" on the roster.

I am leaning toward trading down the 6th or if they can purchase a pick so they can get another mid round pick so we can load up. They are not looking to win it all next year so load up.

Maybe there is a pick to buy.

Anyway, it is just playing with the clay. Load up. It is likely to be a short season anyway. Accumulate assets and get ready for the new CBA. We should be able to accumulate vets cheaper later and maybe even have cap space for a home run consolidate or some more bring out the dead.

Longer term strategy. Not a win now one.

[LyricalRico]

Details, Dat. Still doesn't change that EFJ was to blame.

[nate33]

My guess is Leonard does well in Hollinger's statistical analysis because of his ability to rebound. What's troubling to me is the questionable shot AND inability to finish around the rim. I think Leonard might have a fairly long career b/c of his rebounding skill but I question whether he's able to ever bring enough to the table offensively to merit a spot in a starting lineup.

I don't buy the whole notion about "well he's got an improved jumper in workouts". You know how often we here that about draft prospects every single year? I still remember the story of Chad Ford telling us how impressed he was at Hasheem Thabeet's ability to nail turnaround jumpers in workouts. Or how Jordan Hill was automatic out to 15-20 feet. It gets old. What guys can do in the gym by themselves or with a chair means nothing when they are faced with competing in front of 20,000 fans against 5 other elite level athletes. Just because you have a skill in practice, doesn't mean you have that skill in an actual game situation.

These are fair points. All I'm saying is that if Hollinger already has Leonard ranked as the 5th best prospect in this draft, then any offseason improvement Leonard has made is gravy. And I do think it's plausible that Leonard has made a greater-than-normal improvement in shooting because he knows his role in the NBA will be quite a bit different than it was at San Diego State where he was basically a power forward who spent most of his time in the paint.

[pancakes3]

I wrote one that Jason then sent to David Stern - and knock me over with a feather, got a response!

as interesting as your piece was, Sev, stern's response would be tenfold as so.

[Severn Hoos]

Thanks, pancakes. You may recall that despite the long odds, the Grizz jumped into the top 3. So when they cut to commercial and my "prediction" looked like it could come true, I felt a strange measure of excitement and trepidation. After all, what might a powerful guy like Stern do to silence whistleblower like me? Cement shoes and the East River were looking like a real possibility.

Well, the Grizz actually ended up at #2, LeBron went to the Cavs (which would make an obvious case for a conspiracy - hometown team, etc.), Dumars lost his sanity and took Darko, and the rest is history. Sorry, I meant to say that LeBron, Bosh and Wade are history - at least for this year....

Anyway, Jason got a response from dstern's e-mail address along the lines of "Well, you were ALMOST right."

Coolest e-mail I ever got - and it wasn't even addressed to me!

[daSwami]

D.A. has us taking Donatas Motiejunas. He's usually pretty reliable. If so, his buy-out is apparently prohibitively big, which might make him attractive trade bait for a team looking to avoid adding another contract in hopes (maybe) of clearing space for the Dwight sweepstakes in 2012.

[W. Unseld]

Anyone with any pull that could some of the posters on this board back to article writing for the website? Based on my travels to other boards, I believe we are uniquely suited to having our articles published.

Also--still no word on the Vesely workout on Sunday? I can't find any evidence of it anywhere. Did it actually happen?

Finally, I DVR'd the NBA channels one hour, one time special on the draft lottery. Not a team by team draft analysis mind you but one hour on the draft lottery only ie picks 1-14 (at least if the TV guide description can be believed). There should be multiple draft specials that should have started the second the finals ended if not beforehand. The NBA needs to emulate how the NFL does it.

[W. Unseld]

D.A. has us taking Donatas Motiejunas. He's usually pretty reliable. If so, his buy-out is apparently prohibitively big, which might make him attractive trade bait for a team looking to avoid adding another contract in hopes (maybe) of clearing space for the Dwight sweepstakes in 2012.

I know we aren't playoff bound next year but I just can't see Flip or Ernie wanting to add 3 more youngsters to the mix since this is a young/immature team already.

[tontoz]

The Raptors, according to sources, have strong interest in Bismack Biyombo as an athletic defensive presence to pair with Andrea Bargnani.

Biyombo began his North American workouts on Monday, with the Raptors visiting him in New York. Biyombo is scheduled to be in a big workout for the Pistons on Tuesday and then meet with the Knicks back in New York on Wednesday.



Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/21 ... z1PqSmCK6G

[GhostsOfGil]

Thanks, pancakes. You may recall that despite the long odds, the Grizz jumped into the top 3. So when they cut to commercial and my "prediction" looked like it could come true, I felt a strange measure of excitement and trepidation. After all, what might a powerful guy like Stern do to silence whistleblower like me? Cement shoes and the East River were looking like a real possibility.

Well, the Grizz actually ended up at #2, LeBron went to the Cavs (which would make an obvious case for a conspiracy - hometown team, etc.), Dumars lost his sanity and took Darko, and the rest is history. Sorry, I meant to say that LeBron, Bosh and Wade are history - at least for this year....

Anyway, Jason got a response from dstern's e-mail address along the lines of "Well, you were ALMOST right."

Coolest e-mail I ever got - and it wasn't even addressed to me!

thanks for posting, great read! thats actually a pretty funny response from stern.

[queridiculo]

D.A. has us taking Donatas Motiejunas. He's usually pretty reliable. If so, his buy-out is apparently prohibitively big, which might make him attractive trade bait for a team looking to avoid adding another contract in hopes (maybe) of clearing space for the Dwight sweepstakes in 2012.

With what pick?? That would be a colossal waste with our lottery choice since he's not going to come to play in the NBA for a while..

[dobrojim]

DX has us taking him @18

that possibly makes a lot more sense as a draft and stash

can we really add 3 more rookies to the youth we had last
year, especially when you also consider the 'other' youth,
Jeffers and Owens?

Was just on the phone with a question on the conference call
going on now.