Way too early NBA draft thread 2021

[Ayman78]

Daishen Nix seems likely to be available when the Bulls draft im the second round. His scouting report indicates that he would fit very well offensively with the team. He's a player that the team can develop behind a player like Mike Connley or Kyle Lowry for a season or two.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/daishen-nix/

[Almost Retired]

Daishen Nix seems likely to be available when the Bulls draft im the second round. His scouting report indicates that he would fit very well offensively with the team. He's a player that the team can develop behind a player like Mike Connley or Kyle Lowry for a season or two.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/daishen-nix/

I just listed to a week old podcast of Chad Ford talking with Brian Shaw the coach of G League Ignite. Shaw was pretty high on Nix. Said his conditioning took a while to recover from a bout with Covid. But that he's lost 8 pounds since the season ended. Shaw said that Nix sees the floor and understands the game at a higher level than his other more publicized players. He went on to say that at the next level he'd have to get less reluctant to shoot to keep defenses honest. His nature is to be a pass first set up type PG and not a personal scorer. But that the NBA requires you to be a 3 level threat even from the PG position or it allows unfavorable double teaming on your offense. I'm not really high on Nix. I'd much rather have his teammate Isaiah Todd who Shaw was also very high on. Shaw said that even at 6-10" Todd worked out every day with the guards, working on his handles, etc. I think for the first 2 or 3 years Todd could play SF even at 6-10", and he'd create tremendous mismatches offensively because the kid can shoot. He's streaky, but he can shoot. And unlike PAW I don't think Donovan would have to beg Todd to take an open shot. Todd is my Number 1 target for our pick in the 2nd round. I think he'd give us the most value at that slot.

[Am2626]

Daishen Nix seems likely to be available when the Bulls draft im the second round. His scouting report indicates that he would fit very well offensively with the team. He's a player that the team can develop behind a player like Mike Connley or Kyle Lowry for a season or two.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/daishen-nix/

I just listed to a week old podcast of Chad Ford talking with Brian Shaw the coach of G League Ignite. Shaw was pretty high on Nix. Said his conditioning took a while to recover from a bout with Covid. But that he's lost 8 pounds since the season ended. Shaw said that Nix sees the floor and understands the game at a higher level than his other more publicized players. He went on to say that at the next level he'd have to get less reluctant to shoot to keep defenses honest. His nature is to be a pass first set up type PG and not a personal scorer. But that the NBA requires you to be a 3 level threat even from the PG position or it allows unfavorable double teaming on your offense. I'm not really high on Nix. I'd much rather have his teammate Isaiah Todd who Shaw was also very high on. Shaw said that even at 6-10" Todd worked out every day with the guards, working on his handles, etc. I think for the first 2 or 3 years Todd could play SF even at 6-10", and he'd create tremendous mismatches offensively because the kid can shoot. He's streaky, but he can shoot. And unlike PAW I don't think Donovan would have to beg Todd to take an open shot. Todd is my Number 1 target for our pick in the 2nd round. I think he'd give us the most value at that slot.

Shaw is going to be high on all the Select Team guys as his job was to develop them and get them ready for the NBA. Doesn’t mean what he is saying is true. Didn’t watch much of either guy so don’t know really how good either guy is.

[Rose2Boozer]

TOP 5 SECOND ROUND PROSPECTS FOR THE BULLS

Isaiah Todd

Watch on YouTube

RaiQuan Gray

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JT Thor

Watch on YouTube

Luka Garza

Watch on YouTube

Matthew Mayer

Watch on YouTube

[LateNight]

TOP 5 SECOND ROUND PROSPECTS FOR THE BULLS

Isaiah Todd
RaiQuan Gray
Matthew Mayer

Very intrigued by those guys

[MrSparkle]

This is going to be a grab-the-hard-liquor kind of a draft. When's the last time we had this many close calls in the top-8?

HOU - 48% chance lose their #5-6 to OKC
MIN - 60% lose their #5-8 to GS
CHI - 75% we give #7-10 to ORL

About 6 teams really hoping for luck of the draw; 3 of them will be major losers. GS needs that draft asset to get into some kind of contending position. HOU and MIN playing a dangerous game of luck.

Play-in losers and NOP/SAC also have a reasonable chance (7-14%), so it's gonna be a wild June 22.

Not counting on anything at all, but I'm glad the Bulls have a 25% shot at top-4 (which is actually on par with the old system's chance of a last-place team winning the #1 pick). We participate in the lucky draw. I really hope they play Felicio and let Patrick run PG against Milwaukee, cause that is a must-lose to avoid any ties with NOP and SAC.

[gf2020hotmail]

Not counting on anything at all, but I'm glad the Bulls have a 25% shot at top-4 (which is actually on par with the old system's chance of a last-place team winning the #1 pick). We participate in the lucky draw. I really hope they play Felicio and let Patrick run PG against Milwaukee, cause that is a must-lose to avoid any ties with NOP and SAC.

It's so messed up that Brooklyn and Milwaukee don't play at the same time, even if there is zero chance that Brooklyn is losing tomorrow.

[Wingy]

This is going to be a grab-the-hard-liquor kind of a draft. When's the last time we had this many close calls in the top-8?

HOU - 48% chance lose their #5-6 to OKC
MIN - 60% lose their #5-8 to GS
CHI - 75% we give #7-10 to ORL

About 6 teams really hoping for luck of the draw; 3 of them will be major losers. GS needs that draft asset to get into some kind of contending position. HOU and MIN playing a dangerous game of luck.

Play-in losers and NOP/SAC also have a reasonable chance (7-14%), so it's gonna be a wild June 22.

Not counting on anything at all, but I'm glad the Bulls have a 25% shot at top-4 (which is actually on par with the old system's chance of a last-place team winning the #1 pick). We participate in the lucky draw. I really hope they play Felicio and let Patrick run PG against Milwaukee, cause that is a must-lose to avoid any ties with NOP and SAC.

Agree this is one of the most interesting lotteries I can remember...maybe the most.

Disagree on our 25% chance. We’ll surely figure out a way to win tonight and reduce those odds. It’ll be sooooo Bulls.

[Wingy]

This is a total hot take, knee jerk, highlights-based observation, so don’t take it to be meaningful, but...

Is it just me or do the top 3 2022 guys look pretty bad? It’s not just cause of 2021 either. They didn’t jump out favorably to me even vs 2020. They have a year to improve of course. I am a big believer in the eye test, and those guys aren’t doing it for me at all.

One could say that’s bad since we’ve got our pick. I’ll look at the bright side and point out that makes it more likely the best player is farther back, and maybe in our range.

[sco]

Just so people can put it on their calendars:

June 22, 2021: NBA Draft Lottery (7:30 p.m. CT), which ESPN will broadcast.

July 29: NBA Draft (7 p.m. CT), which ESPN will broadcast.

[Wingy]

TOP 5 SECOND ROUND PROSPECTS FOR THE BULLS

Isaiah Todd
RaiQuan Gray
Matthew Mayer

Very intrigued by those guys

What does Kispert give that Mayer doesn't? Another knee jerk "analysis" on my part, but I see more offensive tools in brief highlights of Mayer. Of course it seems Kispert shoots a better 3p%, and there's probably a reason Mayer gets comparatively little playing time (horrid defense? stacked Baylor roster?). In the "Wingy Don't Take It Too Serious Draft" - I'd MUCH rather grab a guy like Mayer in the 2nd than spend a lotto on Kispert (as projected).

[ChettheJet]

Yes we'd all like to see a miracle happen and everything fall into place to get a top 4 pick. Until they unwrap the gift wrapped candy box look at plans A thru E and see what to do. They could possibly manage to trade their expiring contracts like Young and Satoransky, maybe find a S&T partner for Markkanen and come up with a late first. Even two which I honestly think is as likely as moving up to the top 4.

They're at #39 in the second round. If they fill out the 5-12 spots with veterans they have or that they figure to be the rotation what about the last 2-3 spots? They took the Euro guy last year because they had no place for a second round pick this year. Now they might need some guys for the end of the bench.

Teams at the end of the first round include Phil 25, BRK at 27 and LAC 28. They all can't advance deep into the playoffs so maybe they think they could go a step farther with a veteran on an expiring contract rather than drafting a rookie at the end of the bench. HOU and 19 & 24, might look for an expiring veteran to hold a place until they can get to next years' draft. PHO at 29 might want to look short term while they have Chris Paul.

Or. Plenty of teams have multiple second round picks. IND and CHA 2, OKC, DET, BRK 3, and NO 4. Maybe buy one or two of them to get some potential at the end of the roster, two way contracts or G league assignments.

[Almost Retired]

Yes we'd all like to see a miracle happen and everything fall into place to get a top 4 pick. Until they unwrap the gift wrapped candy box look at plans A thru E and see what to do. They could possibly manage to trade their expiring contracts like Young and Satoransky, maybe find a S&T partner for Markkanen and come up with a late first. Even two which I honestly think is as likely as moving up to the top 4.

They're at #39 in the second round. If they fill out the 5-12 spots with veterans they have or that they figure to be the rotation what about the last 2-3 spots? They took the Euro guy last year because they had no place for a second round pick this year. Now they might need some guys for the end of the bench.

Teams at the end of the first round include Phil 25, BRK at 27 and LAC 28. They all can't advance deep into the playoffs so maybe they think they could go a step farther with a veteran on an expiring contract rather than drafting a rookie at the end of the bench. HOU and 19 & 24, might look for an expiring veteran to hold a place until they can get to next years' draft. PHO at 29 might want to look short term while they have Chris Paul.

Or. Plenty of teams have multiple second round picks. IND and CHA 2, OKC, DET, BRK 3, and NO 4. Maybe buy one or two of them to get some potential at the end of the roster, two way contracts or G league assignments.

There are going to be players at the top of the 2nd Round with First Round potential. And even deep into the 2nd round there are some intriguing draft and stash European players. I look at a kid like Ariel Hukporti. Athletically he looks like he has the potential to be a beast down low. But he's clearly a few years away from sniffing an NBA lineup even as a backup. But he's only 19. Draft him in the mid 2nd Round and let him develop in Europe for 2 seasons. Some other Euro players that have Stash potential are Vrenz Bleijenbergh of Belgium, Amar Sylla, Khalifa Diop and Ibou Badgi of Senegal, Rokas Jokubaitis, Neemias Queta, Sandro Mamukelaschvili, Filip Petrusev if he doesn't go in the late 1st, Malcolm Cazalon, Juhann Begarin, and Carlos Alocen.

[rtblues]

When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome, I will be very interested to see exactly who ORL selects at the 7-10 range, and who else goes around that pick, and after it. I'm going to go ahead and say that whoever that player is, he ain't gonna be someone worth all the bitching and moaning about losing the pick in the Vuc deal. People are getting really worked up about an unknown player with a finite ceiling, or convinced that there is some outlier out there that they will now miss out on.

There's also that much lower probability outcome of getting lucky AF and snaking a TOP-4 pick through the luck of the lottery gods. It's happened before, pretty sure I don't need to remind anyone here about the #1 pick/Rose and those odds of happening. So, like an actual lottery, the chances are slim yet they do exist. If it doesn't go their way, that's a hefty sum saved on a TOP-4 pick contract they won't be paying that could then go towards alternative use like F/As.

But, if you got a rabbit's foot or some other good luck charm, break it out.

[coldfish]

When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome, I will be very interested to see exactly who ORL selects at the 7-10 range, and who else goes around that pick, and after it. I'm going to go ahead and say that whoever that player is, he ain't gonna be someone worth all the bitching and moaning about losing the pick in the Vuc deal. People are getting really worked up about an unknown player with a finite ceiling, or convinced that there is some outlier out there that they will now miss out on.

There's also that much lower probability outcome of getting lucky AF and snaking a TOP-4 pick through the luck of the lottery gods. It's happened before, pretty sure I don't need to remind anyone here about the #1 pick/Rose and those odds of happening. So, like an actual lottery, the chances are slim yet they do exist. If it doesn't go their way, that's a hefty sum saved on a TOP-4 pick contract they won't be paying that could then go towards alternative use like F/As.

But, if you got a rabbit's foot or some other good luck charm, break it out.

I have always been surprised by how difficult humans find it to process statistical odds. Things are binary to us. They either happen or they don't. When it comes to "might" happen, people have difficulty differentiating between a 0.1% chance or a 1.7% chance or a 21% chance.

Regardless, more likely than not the Bulls will be conveying the 10 or 11 pick to Orlando.

I believe this is current:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[MrSparkle]

Fear not gang: what's gonna happen is ORL will get #1 and CHI will go #2, with HOU and DET rounding out 3 & 4.

[rtblues]

When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome, I will be very interested to see exactly who ORL selects at the 7-10 range, and who else goes around that pick, and after it. I'm going to go ahead and say that whoever that player is, he ain't gonna be someone worth all the bitching and moaning about losing the pick in the Vuc deal. People are getting really worked up about an unknown player with a finite ceiling, or convinced that there is some outlier out there that they will now miss out on.

There's also that much lower probability outcome of getting lucky AF and snaking a TOP-4 pick through the luck of the lottery gods. It's happened before, pretty sure I don't need to remind anyone here about the #1 pick/Rose and those odds of happening. So, like an actual lottery, the chances are slim yet they do exist. If it doesn't go their way, that's a hefty sum saved on a TOP-4 pick contract they won't be paying that could then go towards alternative use like F/As.

But, if you got a rabbit's foot or some other good luck charm, break it out.

I have always been surprised by how difficult humans find it to process statistical odds. Things are binary to us. They either happen or they don't. When it comes to "might" happen, people have difficulty differentiating between a 0.1% chance or a 1.7% chance or a 21% chance.

Regardless, more likely than not the Bulls will be conveying the 10 or 11 pick to Orlando.

I believe this is current:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Yeah, the first sentence in my post says, "When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome..."
So, I've processed the statistical odds. Not sure exactly what you're saying here or who you're saying it to.

[coldfish]

When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome, I will be very interested to see exactly who ORL selects at the 7-10 range, and who else goes around that pick, and after it. I'm going to go ahead and say that whoever that player is, he ain't gonna be someone worth all the bitching and moaning about losing the pick in the Vuc deal. People are getting really worked up about an unknown player with a finite ceiling, or convinced that there is some outlier out there that they will now miss out on.

There's also that much lower probability outcome of getting lucky AF and snaking a TOP-4 pick through the luck of the lottery gods. It's happened before, pretty sure I don't need to remind anyone here about the #1 pick/Rose and those odds of happening. So, like an actual lottery, the chances are slim yet they do exist. If it doesn't go their way, that's a hefty sum saved on a TOP-4 pick contract they won't be paying that could then go towards alternative use like F/As.

But, if you got a rabbit's foot or some other good luck charm, break it out.

I have always been surprised by how difficult humans find it to process statistical odds. Things are binary to us. They either happen or they don't. When it comes to "might" happen, people have difficulty differentiating between a 0.1% chance or a 1.7% chance or a 21% chance.

Regardless, more likely than not the Bulls will be conveying the 10 or 11 pick to Orlando.

I believe this is current:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Yeah, the first sentence in my post says, "When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome..."
So, I've processed the statistical odds. Not sure exactly what you're saying here or who you're saying it to.

I was agreeing with you.

Just in general, I have seen a lot of posts on the Bulls board that either overestimate or underestimate the odds of jumping in the lottery. For example, that 1.7% Derrick Rose was a once in 60 years type jump but people reference it like you can expect it regularly. OTOH, many of the tankers are still stuck in a world where the worst records have an overwhelming chance of getting the top picks.

My post was aimed at those various groups of people or perhaps just discussing them. I got the impression that yours was too.

[Repeat 3-peat]

2021 NBA Draft Order Reportedly to Be Decided by Tiebreaker Coin Flips Tuesday

According to Jonathan Givony of ESPN, the league will conduct coin flips as tiebreakers for the NBA draft order at some point in the early afternoon (ET). The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied for the fourth-best lottery odds, and the Orlando Magic (via the Chicago Bulls), New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings are tied for the eighth-best odds

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10002931-2021-nba-draft-order-reportedly-to-be-decided-by-tiebreaker-coin-flips-tuesday

[rtblues]

I have always been surprised by how difficult humans find it to process statistical odds. Things are binary to us. They either happen or they don't. When it comes to "might" happen, people have difficulty differentiating between a 0.1% chance or a 1.7% chance or a 21% chance.

Regardless, more likely than not the Bulls will be conveying the 10 or 11 pick to Orlando.

I believe this is current:
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Yeah, the first sentence in my post says, "When the Bulls draft pick conveys to ORL, the most likely statistical outcome..."
So, I've processed the statistical odds. Not sure exactly what you're saying here or who you're saying it to.

I was agreeing with you.

Just in general, I have seen a lot of posts on the Bulls board that either overestimate or underestimate the odds of jumping in the lottery. For example, that 1.7% Derrick Rose was a once in 60 years type jump but people reference it like you can expect it regularly. OTOH, many of the tankers are still stuck in a world where the worst records have an overwhelming chance of getting the top picks.

My post was aimed at those various groups of people or perhaps just discussing them. I got the impression that yours was too.

Okay, got ya... Yeah, when hope is all people left they grab on to it...