My response:
Noah has the better body of work x100.
The reason the Suns say 'no' is for a number of reasons. None of which are that Len //IS// a better player than Noah.
Here are my reasons:
1) The Suns with Noah in an ultra competitive West are not going to contend. There is no guarantee they make the playoffs at this juncture either even with Noah. We would have to make other moves with this and if those are not out there then there is no reason to move forward.
2) Noah's salary. The Suns have Goran Dragic to resign or trade. Taking Noah would hamper our ability to do that. If we don't find a trade partner for Dragic where we get value back we will want to retain him.
3) McDonough valued Len as a top two pick in the draft. We attempted to get an earlier pick to acquire him or Oladipo. Len is in the eyes of management a statement of franchise direction and opportunity. This was our lowest pick in a draft (even if a poor one) and the Suns have taken tremendous heat for our sending off of our picks. (Nash/Rondo/etc.)
4) Noah's inevitable decline is upon us:
Percent decline of NBA player's by Age: (Keep in mind for a Center this is likely far more dramatic)
29 to 30 -11%
30 to 31 -17%
31 to 32 -22%
32 to 33 -35%
33 to 34 -57%
34 to 35 -146%
Source:
http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/ 5) Len's contract. He is still on his rookie deal for two more years. If Noah declines as expected Len will be producing where he is at a fraction of the cost. Further the Suns can resign Len when his rookie deal is up. Look at the statistics of where a team that can offer longer contracts loses a player they want to keep and resign.
6 Noah's contract. Noah will have the ability to go to a contending team or a large market team when his contract expires. See the percentage of players that remain on non-contending teams in this scenario with the draw Noah has. Likely the Suns get Noah for two years and then would have to overpay a rapidly declining player to retain him.
It isn't because Len's last run of games that makes him equal to Noah why the suns say no. It is all the reasons mentioned above. Len is not equal to Noah right now. But in two years his production will be better than Noah and that's when the Suns with their young players will be reaching many of their 'peak' years. The Suns will be in their prime in about two years if they don't shake up the roster. Getting Noah now hinders that progress. Len will be in his third year (missing the first) when statistically big men show a leap forward in production.
