#12 Highest Peak of All Time (Walton '77 wins)

[bastillon]

Well for starters, he was All-Defense 1st team. i know, I know, who cares what the coaches think.

Kobe guarding Raja is to be expected, I'm not sure who else he would check on the Suns outside of Barbosa when Smush couldn't handle him. Kobe didn't just guard Bowen, he also took Manu & Parker. For the most part, Phil had Kobe playing safety.

LA didn't really have any defenders outside of Kobe & Kwame on that team, yet still were an average defensive team. A wing isn't going to have the defensive impact that a big will, but I have to ask, if Kobe's All-D 1st team is just reputation....where did their defense come from? Smush? Cook? Mihm? Odom at the SF spot?

I mean people seem to love with & without numbers, but I guess Kobe gets screwed there since he was actually durable and played 80 games. For the year, LA had a 105.7 DRtg for the year, but a 111.6 DRtg(estimate) in the 2 games Kobe missed. Now I don't really care about with/without numbers, but many seem to, so there you go.

So we have the coaches saying he was elite. We have a bad defensive roster still playing defense above the average that year. And we have the Lakers playing crap defense without him.

lmao @ UBF with 2-game sample as any kind of evidence. let's take bigger sample (whole year).

RAPM: offense 5.9, defense -1.2
Kobe was a net negative defender that year.

let's check on/off data then:
on court: 107.8
off court: 101.2

Lakers were elite defensive team when Kobe wasn't playing.

2006 is also the year when he struggled so much vs Raja Bell. in games in which Bell played, Kobe posted like 21 ppg on sub-par TS%. Kobe's postseason was poor to say the least. he was thoroughly outplayed by Steve Nash. his supporting cast was probably better than Nash's. Odom vastly outperformed Marion in that series, while Kwame was beastin in some games as well. Kobe didn't really do much damage to the Suns. Nash played with Boris Diaw at center btw.

there's no way to justify 06 over 08 based on postseason performance. IMO Kobe's peak is either 08 or 09. he wasn't as skilled offensively in 01/03. still a great player but sometimes struggled. older Kobe seemed to find a way somehow.

[An Unbiased Fan]

lmao @ UBF with 2-game sample as any kind of evidence. let's take bigger sample (whole year).

RAPM: offense 5.9, defense -1.2
Kobe was a net negative defender that year.

let's check on/off data then:
on court: 107.8
off court: 101.2

Lakers were elite defensive team when Kobe wasn't playing.

2006 is also the year when he struggled so much vs Raja Bell. in games in which Bell played, Kobe posted like 21 ppg on sub-par TS%. Kobe's postseason was poor to say the least. he was thoroughly outplayed by Steve Nash. his supporting cast was probably better than Nash's. Odom vastly outperformed Marion in that series, while Kwame was beastin in some games as well. Kobe didn't really do much damage to the Suns. Nash played with Boris Diaw at center btw.

there's no way to justify 06 over 08 based on postseason performance. IMO Kobe's peak is either 08 or 09. he wasn't as skilled offensively in 01/03. still a great player but sometimes struggled. older Kobe seemed to find a way somehow.

1) I already said I don't care about with/without numbers and that Kobe played 80 games. I was asked to give points, so I did.

And Kobe was playing 41 MPG, so you're basically talking about that 3-4 minute window when LA's 2nd unit took on the opponent's 2nd unit, and then another 3 or so minutes of garbage time.

let's check Derek Fishe'rs on/off data from last year:
on court: 101.98
off court: 104.84

Well herp derp, I guess 2012 Fisher was a far superior defender than 2006 Kobe....and 2012 Lebron too????
2012 Lebron:
on court: 99.93
off court: 101.59

Please don't bring up APM numbers unless your'e going to use them consistently. For example, do you feel that Hedo had a bigger defensive impact than Dwight did in 2009?

2009 Dwight:
on court: 101.42
off court: 102.51

2009 Hedo:
on court: 100.94
off court: 103.70
^
I mean if you're okay with this fine, if not, then I don't see how you can knock Kobe for a lineup evaluation stat.

The reality is again that LA had only 2 defenders, who were Kobe 7 Kwame. Odom's D at SF is lacking in comparison to the PF spot, and then you have guys like Smush & Cook, and so on.


2) To say Kobe played poorly in the playoffs, suggest you didn't watch them. Kobe averaged 42.5 PPG against PHX in 2006. LA knew that they weren't going to win with Kobe dropping 50 PPG, but rather by exploiting PHX's weakness inside. And that strategy pushed a #2 Sun team to 7 games. It seems a bit unfair that Kobe gets penalized for not having the right team around him, while others escape scrutiny. I mean 2009 Lebron's team lost to a lesser team without their starting PG, and I don't see that preventing people for voting for him. When he or a KG comes up, then support is a factor. Yet, Kobe with isn't worthy despite leading a D-league team to the #7 best SRS, and pushing a superior team to 7 games. Hmmmm....

3) To say Kobe wasn't as skilled offensively as he was in 01/03 makes little sense. His 2006 season was amazing, and by far the best since the days of MJ. He didn't just score 81, or have 62 in 3 quarters, he was putting up numbers we haven't seen since the days of Wilt.

There have only been 3 players in NBA history who have scored 40+ ppg for a month. Wilt has done it something like 21 tiems if I'm correct, Baylor did it once, and Kobe has done it 5 times, think about that.
-In January of 2006, Kobe averaged 43.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.1 apg on 61.1% TS. And remember that LA was playing at a pace of 90.9 that year. That's one of the greatest scoring months in history. He was playing at a videogame level.
-In April he put up 41.6 ppg on 62.1% TS

Kobe had 2 of the greatest scoring months in the history of the NBA, and certainly of the modern era in just ONE season. So when you say things like, "still a great player but sometimes struggled. older Kobe seemed to find a way somehow", I think you're just guessing about 2006 Kobe, and not really speaking from an actual reference.

Kobe had five 50+ point games. He had 27, that's right, 27 40+ pt games. he did this on 56% TS, and again, a pace of just 90.9

4) I'm not saying that Kobe should even go here, I was merely answering JB's question about 2006 vs 2008 Kobe. However, I do think it's a shame that he's held to a different standard than every other player in NBA history. That his defensive achievements are dismissed, while no other gets this. That a season where he puts up 35+ PPG on nearly the same TS% as 1977 Walton, that Kobe is labelled as an inefficient chucker, and Walton an offensive genius. Put 2006 Kobe on any of the 2008-10 teams, and they're all better. He was at an insane offensive peak, still an elite defender, and still extremely athletic. He took a D-league team to the #7 SRS in the league, and took a superior Suns team to 7 games.

Don't want to sidetrack the thread, that's just my 2 cents why 2006 Kobe > any other version of him.

[MisterWestside]

You actually make a couple solid points UAB, but this quote:

He took a D-league team to the #7 SRS in the league, and took a superior Suns team to 7 games.

No one's mistaking Kobe's '06 team as a talented bunch, but you must not have watched a D-league team play. They weren't D-league level. Parker, Cook, Mihm, and Brown provided league average production/on-off that season, and Odom was above average.

[colts18]

lmao @ UBF with 2-game sample as any kind of evidence. let's take bigger sample (whole year).

RAPM: offense 5.9, defense -1.2
Kobe was a net negative defender that year.

let's check on/off data then:
on court: 107.8
off court: 101.2

Lakers were elite defensive team when Kobe wasn't playing.

2006 is also the year when he struggled so much vs Raja Bell. in games in which Bell played, Kobe posted like 21 ppg on sub-par TS%. Kobe's postseason was poor to say the least. he was thoroughly outplayed by Steve Nash. his supporting cast was probably better than Nash's. Odom vastly outperformed Marion in that series, while Kwame was beastin in some games as well. Kobe didn't really do much damage to the Suns. Nash played with Boris Diaw at center btw.

there's no way to justify 06 over 08 based on postseason performance. IMO Kobe's peak is either 08 or 09. he wasn't as skilled offensively in 01/03. still a great player but sometimes struggled. older Kobe seemed to find a way somehow.

There is no chance the Lakers cast was better than the Suns cast. Marion was an all-star caliber player in that era. The rest of Nash's cast fit in well for their role (Bell, Diaw, Thomas, etc.). Look at the on/off numbers. Kobe's team was horrible offensively without him and its indicated in the RAPM numbers. @ any praise for Kwame. Thats like the only time in his life he ever played somewhat respectable. The rest of the time he was a no hands scrub. Just listen to Stephen A. Smith's rant on Kwame. He perfectly captured what Kwame Brown is (a Certified scrub)

[ThaRegul8r]

Don't want to sidetrack the thread

It's too late for that.

[C-izMe]

I really don't see why 07 Kobe isn't mentioned more. I personally take 08 but 07 is definetly his best regular season IMO. I remember that being the only year I thought Kobe was the best in the game.

[Devve]

2006 is also the year when he struggled so much vs Raja Bell. in games in which Bell played, Kobe posted like 21 ppg on sub-par TS%. Kobe's postseason was poor to say the least. he was thoroughly outplayed by Steve Nash. his supporting cast was probably better than Nash's. Odom vastly outperformed Marion in that series, while Kwame was beastin in some games as well. Kobe didn't really do much damage to the Suns. Nash played with Boris Diaw at center btw.

LMAO. Kobe averaged like 43 PPG on 59% TS against the Suns that year.

And he was certainly not outplayed by Nash. 28/6/5/2/59% TS isn't doing damage?

And LMAO @ the likes of Kwame/Smush/Luke/Walton/Odom being better than Nash's supporting cast.

LOL. Delusional.

[Josephpaul]

Kobe Bryant 2009 season was a season where Kobe proved he could win a title without a HOF of the likes of Shaq, a season that propelled him into the top 15. A playoff run where he avg 30.2/ 5AST/5 Trb . In the finals he avg 32.4 points and 7.4 AST , the second player to avg these types of a numbers in the NBA finals. This is the year you can say Kobe Bryant was transcending to different level.

My vote Kobe 09.

Gasol is a HOF

looking back at this are you saying pau is in the same playing field has Shaq or even close to a player like shaq?... i hope not...

[Josephpaul]

2009 and 2006 are in my opinon his best peak years, i give the nod to 09 because he really put it all together and propelled his career to a top 15 status. Was he a top 15 player before the ring? i dont think he was. He really took his career to another level.

[Dr Positivity]

I saw the 100 list tell me how he's a better player than Benard King , melo ? So 18.9 PTs and 9.2 Reb 3.2 is a general statline for HOF?

He's not better than Bernard King was, but King wasn't "King" for very long.

He's certainly better than Melo. Melo has never had a big impact on team success, period. Unfortunately that's moot though because if you're wondering how Gasol will get in the Hall when Melo won't, well, Melo's going to get in the Hall. He shouldn't, but he will.

I think Melo's actually the guy, not Gasol, who wouldn't make the cut if his NBA career had to stand alone but his spectacular NCAA/Intl exploits probably push him over the edge

[therealbig3]

Voting has been really scarce in this thread so far, from a quick glance. I see 2 votes apiece for Walton and Erving, and then 1 vote each for Wade and Kobe.

BTW, I'm still considering whether or not Erving should go over Walton or not. I personally don't see Erving as a clone of LeBron, or so close that "if I voted for LeBron, I have to vote Erving next"...but I do actually somewhat feel like that about Walton in comparison to Hakeem/Duncan/Garnett...and I personally would have gone with those 3 in some order for the last 3 spots.

But Erving was just such a beast...IDK, still leaning Walton ever so slightly.

[ThaRegul8r]

Voting has been really scarce in this thread so far, from a quick glance.

Kobe talk has taken over now, so I'm staying out of it until it passes.

[Doctor MJ]

I saw the 100 list tell me how he's a better player than Benard King , melo ? So 18.9 PTs and 9.2 Reb 3.2 is a general statline for HOF?

He's not better than Bernard King was, but King wasn't "King" for very long.

He's certainly better than Melo. Melo has never had a big impact on team success, period. Unfortunately that's moot though because if you're wondering how Gasol will get in the Hall when Melo won't, well, Melo's going to get in the Hall. He shouldn't, but he will.

I think Melo's actually the guy, not Gasol, who wouldn't make the cut if his NBA career had to stand alone but his spectacular NCAA/Intl exploits probably push him over the edge

Well, I'll put it this way:

The perception of his NCAA career has absolutely everything to do with why he's so overrated, so in that sense, I agree that if he were an unhyped nobody coming into the pros he wouldn't make the Hall. The irony of it all is that people actually grossly exaggerate his NCAA career as well.

This is a guy who scored 22 PPG on 53.7% TS in the year he supposedly took college basketball by storm. And before anyone says "Yeah but he was UNSTOPPABLE in March Madness", dude averaged 16.5 PPG on 54.6% TS in the tourney, only scoring more than 20 points in one game.

The only reason why anyone thinks Melo had a season worth bringing up in a HOF context is that his team happened to win the title. In reality it was nothing compared to guys like Durant, Beasley, Love or Davis.

So yeah, the tale of Melo's epic overrating is an astonishing one because he hit seemingly every possible overrating trigger along the way, and to this point, that's only reason why he'll make the Hall.

However, if someone were to say, "But even with that, that doesn't seem like enough to make the Hall?", while I agree in terms of what I want the Hall to be, the barrier for entry is pretty low. Melo could easily make 10 all-star games by the time he's done. Has anyone ever done that and not been admitted?

[Josephpaul]

Voting has been really scarce in this thread so far, from a quick glance.

Kobe talk has taken over now, so I'm staying out of it until it passes.

so it crime to think hes a top 15 peak?

[Doctor MJ]

Voting has been really scarce in this thread so far, from a quick glance. I see 2 votes apiece for Walton and Erving, and then 1 vote each for Wade and Kobe.

BTW, I'm still considering whether or not Erving should go over Walton or not. I personally don't see Erving as a clone of LeBron, or so close that "if I voted for LeBron, I have to vote Erving next"...but I do actually somewhat feel like that about Walton in comparison to Hakeem/Duncan/Garnett...and I personally would have gone with those 3 in some order for the last 3 spots.

But Erving was just such a beast...IDK, still leaning Walton ever so slightly.

I think a lot of people playing wait-and-see. Myself included. I said a lot relating to Erving last time, so I don't know how much more I can say, and yet I'm also trying to keep my mind open.

That said, yeah Erving's the guy I'm leaning toward, with Walton second.

I'll add one nugget to chew on:

If Philly beats Portland in the '77 Finals we aren't having this discussion, are we?

Philly of course, almost beat Portland as is. If Portland doesn't break serve in Game 5 and then win in Game 6 by one basket, we're at least going to game 7 in Philly. What happened in those 2 games? Erving scored 37 & 40 points respectively. You really think he could have done more? Meanwhile, the other big talent on his team (McGinnis) goes for only 11 in the game where Portland broke serve. What do you think happens if McGinnis plays normal that day?

Heck, what do you think happens if Erving actually has a reasonable fit of a supporting cast replacing McGinnis with a slightly less talented but more complimentary player?

To my mind there's all sorts of scenarios where Philly comes out on top then, and as I said, if that happens we aren't having this debate, right?

[ThaRegul8r]

Voting has been really scarce in this thread so far, from a quick glance.

Kobe talk has taken over now, so I'm staying out of it until it passes.

so it crime to think hes a top 15 peak?

This attitude is exactly why I'm staying out of it. This is not indicative of a constructive conversation. And as I can only control and am responsible for my own actions and not those of anyone else, I'm not even getting into this.

[therealbig3]

@Doctor MJ

I get where you're coming from. I understand that stance, but I'm personally trying to not really even look at the team result there, and I'm trying to specifically look at what Walton's doing for his team.

I don't remember if you broke this down before (you probably did...I know drza did), but if you could give a quick summary...what are your thoughts on Walton vs Garnett? To me, Walton seems to have that same motor, intensity, and IQ on defense, the same tenacity on the boards, the same unselfishness, the same ability to act as an excellent passing hub, an even better outlet passer initiating fast breaks...Garnett was a better scorer, true, Walton was limited in that sense compared to the other big men that have been ranked, even guys not really known for their scoring like TD or Garnett.

But I don't see him as inept as a scorer, I think he's underrated when people say he got dominated by Kareem or that he would get embarrassed by "real" post defenders...I think he had a decent skill set offensively, and he was a decent midrange shooter. And the bottom line is that volume scoring is probably the last thing on his list of priorities, much like it was the case with Garnett.

But of course, you could very well rank Dr. J's peak over or on par with Garnett's as well, in which case, it makes perfect sense for you to take him over Walton as well.

[ThaRegul8r]

I've been going over everything I have on the two over the last couple days, but I still haven't come to a decision on whom I want to vote for first between Walton and J. It's at the point that my vote now will be for one of the two, but I don't know which one yet.

[lorak]

BTW, I'm still considering whether or not Erving should go over Walton or not. I personally don't see Erving as a clone of LeBron, or so close that "if I voted for LeBron, I have to vote Erving next"...but I do actually somewhat feel like that about Walton in comparison to Hakeem/Duncan/Garnett...and I personally would have gone with those 3 in some order for the last 3 spots

(+ others many times said that Walton’s impact on defense was GOAT level)

I don’t agree with that and the more closely I look at Walton, the more I think he is slightly overrated.
Elgee’s research tells us that:

[b]

Portland 1977:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   43-21    113.4    105.1       +8.3
W/O Walton    6-12     105.7    110.0       -4.3       0.26      61%
Total Difference                            +12.6


Portland 1978:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS    %Road Games
With Walton   48-10    110.4    100.4       +10.0
W/O Walton    10-14     101.0    104.3       -3.3      -0.07     58%
Total Difference                            +13.3


If we combine the two seasons and pro-rate the records to 82-games:

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS   %Road Games
With Walton   61-21    112.0    102.9       +9.1
W/O Walton    31-51    103.0    106.7       -3.7       0.07     60%
Total Difference                            +12.6


So based on pure with/without data Blazers defense was better with Walton by -4.9 ppg in 1977 and -3.9 in 1978. Overall -3.8 over these two seasons, and sample is really big, because we have 42 games without Walton.

Of course these result aren’t pace adjusted and that’s the problem. It’s very probable that Blazers played faster with Walton than without him. The only question is how much faster exactly? I have hundreds of with/without players seasons in my data base and the biggest increase in pace without given player is +5.1 (Reggie 1996, 6 games without). Then Price 1989 (7 games w/o), KG 2006 (6) and Price 1995 (34) with +4.1 each.

Among players similar to Walton I have Gasol 2008 (55 games w/o) and Lakers with him played slower than without Pau. The same with Grizzlies 2008 (-2.2). Vareajo 2011 (51 games w/o) also made Cavs play slower (-0.4) and -2.4 in 2008 (34 games w/o) . NYK 1987 also played slightly slower with Ewing (-0.7, 32 games w/o), but in 1998 they played faster with him (+4.0, 55 games w/o). Gasol 2005 (26 games w/o) and Hakeem 1991 (26) are also examples when teams played faster with their star big man, but not much faster: +1.0 each. Similar story with KG 2009 (25 games w/o, +0.1 faster pace) and so on.

So it’s rather unreasonable to assume 77-78 Blazers with Walton would play faster than 2-3 possessions per game. (more reasonable is assumption that pace wouldn't change or would be slower WITH Bill) So lets look how PTB drtg would look like if we assume they pace was slower by 2 possessions without Walton.

In 1977 Blazers pace was 108 and -1.5 drtg (relatively to league average). Assuming 110 pace with Walton PTB drtg during 64 games with Bill was -4.0 and +9.5 in 18 games without him.
In 1978 Blazers pace was 104,2 and -3,7 drtg. Assuming 106,2 pace with Walton Blazers drtg was -6.4 with him and +4.0 without.

So it looks like he transformed the worst defense in the league into the best. But were Blazers really that bad defensively without Walton? In 1979 Blazers drtg was -0.7, so still better than average, despite the fact Walton didn’t play at all and Lucas with Hollins missed many games.

And when we look at Blazers drtg in 77 and 78 with/without Walton without assumption that pace changed we would see that:
1977: -2.2 with, +2.4 without
1978: -7.9 with, -4.3 without

So these results without assumption about changing pace are much more consistent with what happened in 1979. So without a doubt Walton’s impact on defense was positive, but in no way it was GOAT level. For example we all know Russell lifted average, or slightly above average defensive team to -10 drtg during his peak. That’s GOAT level impact. Or 2009 KG +1.2 drtg team (25 games w/o KG, pace slower by 0,1) lifted to -8.1. Or Duncan 2004: from -3.5 (13 games w/o, pace faster by 1.0) to -9.0. Or 2005 Duncan: from -1.1 (16 games w/o, pace faster by 0.9) to -8.0. Or 1992 DRob: from +2.6 (14 games w/o, pace slower by 1.6) to -5.0 drtg. Walton’s defensive impact seems like tier below these 4 players who really had GOAT level defensive impact.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Don't want to sidetrack the thread

It's too late for that.

See I don't get this. I was under the impression that you of all people felt that discussions centered too much around 1 or 2 people in most of these threads. I brought up 10+ names a few pages back, and no one bit on them. Most of my posts in this thread have been about Walton, so I find it strange that a couple of posts discussing Kobe, is considered sidetracking it. Especially when guys like Dirk, Wade, Barkley have come up previously in this project. Oh well.