Eaves: C's felt Fultz was NOT the best prospect

[Slartibartfast]

Eh... Smart was a pretty gifted offensive player in college. A more advanced ball-handler and passer for sure.

Would have to revisit, but not sure I agree. I remember Marcus being able to do the Tyreke Evans thing, driving straight to the rim and laying it up over defenders from superior strength. Doesn't work in the NBA.

Jackson is a better handler and passer, his shot is probably better than Smart's, and he's got longer arms, so finishing at the rim, floaters etc are not bad. It's his ISO ability, breaking down defenders off the dribble where he's weak.

The difference between Smart/Jackson in the NBA is explosion. Jackson may not have the handles/footwork to take advantage of it yet, but he has the quick-twitch explosion to beat his man. Smart just bullied guys in college and physically overwhelmed them. In the NBA he can't do that against most NBA guards, and he isn't quick enough to get by them.

Jackson likely won't be your primary ISO scorer, but he's plenty athletic enough to crush a defense that is just a bit off-kilter. My bigger issue with him is his shot and how he/Brown could work together, as I think they're very similar players overall. Jaylen is a better shooter, a bit more physical, Jackson is a better passer, but they're generally a similar archetype of a player.

Yep. I like Jaylen's ability to function in a Tatum style role of mid-post scorer better with his powerful frame, quick first step and finishing ability. But both of these guys would be below average perimeter playmakers on the wing - both heavily dependent on either themselves or their defenders being in motion on the catch.

Similar problems to AB/Jae. More athleticism attacking the rim and better size defensively but the same perimeter/PNR playmaking deficiencies.

[Slartibartfast]

Would have to revisit, but not sure I agree. I remember Marcus being able to do the Tyreke Evans thing, driving straight to the rim and laying it up over defenders from superior strength. Doesn't work in the NBA.

Jackson is a better handler and passer, his shot is probably better than Smart's, and he's got longer arms, so finishing at the rim, floaters etc are not bad. It's his ISO ability, breaking down defenders off the dribble where he's weak.

Jackson is not a better handler or passer than Smart. That's crazy.

He's above-average for a 4, as he was in college, but his handle is mediocre to poor for a wing. Smart has a pretty decent handle and very good vision/passing ability. He just has no explosion to take advantage of it.

I agree with the Smart thing. For me, the biggest difference between Bradley and Smart is Smart's ability to play PG. Bradley has very little ability to run the offense, while Smart actually can. Of course, the shooting is where he goes south, but he's got some handle.

But I disagree with Jackson's handle. Maybe he doesn't have a PG handle, but from what I've seen this season, he was a surprisingly good ball handler.

He's like Jaylen - he's got good handles in space, but they break down under pressure. Josh just looked better in college because he played on a team with amazing spacing and multiple NBA perimeter talents letting him play to his strengths.

[Spin Move]

Ainge sucks drafting?

Why? Because he passed on Giannis? I reject this. He found Sullinger, Rondo, Jefferson after pick 15.

Ainge and the talent evaluators are fine.

I completely agree. This false narrative on this board is mind boggling. You don't call someone a bad drafter because he missed on a player who surpassed all expectations and was passed on by another 28 teams. Go back and look at the drafts, then do a re-draft arranged by how those players rank now as NBA players. Ainge's picks, more often than not, rank higher than they're original spot. This is how you judge a drafter.

For a GM who got late first rounders and second rounders for the better part of his tenure here he's done a solid job.

Jefferson and sullenger both slipped. We're projected top 10 picks. Ainge gets no credit for them imo.

Rondo I'll give him. I remember Ainge saying he had a guy on his radar who no one was talking about and he would get him.

That is silly, they slipped becuase other GM's chose not to take them, the GM that did decide to take them should get the credit.
I do agree with your general point that Ainge is not a bad drafter, you are going to have hits and misses, think of how many misses the patriots have had in the draft, or if you want to go NBA think of how many times Jerry west or pat Rielly missed in the draft.

[The Corey's]

I completely agree. This false narrative on this board is mind boggling. You don't call someone a bad drafter because he missed on a player who surpassed all expectations and was passed on by another 28 teams. Go back and look at the drafts, then do a re-draft arranged by how those players rank now as NBA players. Ainge's picks, more often than not, rank higher than they're original spot. This is how you judge a drafter.

For a GM who got late first rounders and second rounders for the better part of his tenure here he's done a solid job.

Jefferson and sullenger both slipped. We're projected top 10 picks. Ainge gets no credit for them imo.

Rondo I'll give him. I remember Ainge saying he had a guy on his radar who no one was talking about and he would get him.

That is silly, they slipped becuase other GM's chose not to take them, the GM that did decide to take them should get the credit.
I do agree with your general point that Ainge is not a bad drafter, you are going to have hits and misses, think of how many misses the patriots have had in the draft, or if you want to go NBA think of how many times Jerry west or pat Rielly missed in the draft.

Both had weight problems and sullenger had the back.

Maybe silly but that's the grub

[threrf23]

I wonder if our guys thought that Fultz lost explosiveness as a result of offseason weight/muscle gain, or was otherwise hiding an injury?

We'll see how this plays out. Tweets taken at face value, I think a lack of explosiveness is a very deluded reason to pass up on a guy like Fultz. I wasn't sold on Fultz initially, but I talked myself into him, and my main worry now is that we have a front office that would value DSJ over Fultz mainly because he is quicker or more explosive or more athletic.

Not to mention, depending on where we pick next year, Luka is my dude. And if Fultz isn't explosive enough...

[Jingles]

Would be pretty wild if Ainge were right on this. My read of Fultz is that, yes, he is more of a Harden-level athlete than a Wade-level (and certainly below Wall/Westbrook)

Harden isn't the typical run-and-jump athlete you see in the NBA, but he does have one elite athletic trait - deceleration.

When I talked to Marcus Elliott of P3 Applied Sports Science last month, he was quick to mention the peculiar gifts of the Rockets star. “Harden is barely average in almost every metric we look at related to athleticism, except for deceleration metrics,” Elliott told me. “And in those he’s one of the best athletes we’ve ever measured in any sport — in soccer, football, or basketball.”

https://theringer.com/james-hardens-brilliance-is-a-two-way-mirror-b158d1bf2e22

I think Fultz may be a better vertical and lateral athlete than Harden but I'm not sure he's elite at any one thing athletically.

This is good stuff. Deceleration = something you see in Harden but have no way to describe until you see it in front of you like this. I think this is probably the main aspect of JH that has caused me to describe him in the past as Messi-esque in his preternatural ability to lull defenders to sleep, get them to shift one way with a dribble or step in one direction and blow by them when they inevitably lunge at the ball. Never really seen anybody who draws defenders in close in the same way by design. It also happens to be part of why he turns it over so much—Messi turns it over plenty too but his turnovers are 80 yards from his own goal so nobody really cares.

[Slartibartfast]

Would be pretty wild if Ainge were right on this. My read of Fultz is that, yes, he is more of a Harden-level athlete than a Wade-level (and certainly below Wall/Westbrook)

Harden isn't the typical run-and-jump athlete you see in the NBA, but he does have one elite athletic trait - deceleration.

When I talked to Marcus Elliott of P3 Applied Sports Science last month, he was quick to mention the peculiar gifts of the Rockets star. “Harden is barely average in almost every metric we look at related to athleticism, except for deceleration metrics,” Elliott told me. “And in those he’s one of the best athletes we’ve ever measured in any sport — in soccer, football, or basketball.”

https://theringer.com/james-hardens-brilliance-is-a-two-way-mirror-b158d1bf2e22

I think Fultz may be a better vertical and lateral athlete than Harden but I'm not sure he's elite at any one thing athletically.

This is good stuff. Deceleration = something you see in Harden but have no way to describe until you see it in front of you like this. I think this is probably the main aspect of JH that has caused me to describe him in the past as Messi-esque in his preternatural ability to lull defenders to sleep, get them to shift one way with a dribble or step in one direction and blow by them when they inevitably lunge at the ball. Never really seen anybody who draws defenders in close in the same way by design. It also happens to be part of why he turns it over so much—Messi turns it over plenty too but his turnovers are 80 yards from his own goal so nobody really cares.

Fultz being so well-rounded athletically actually made me like him a little more than Harden, who I think gets a little overrated because so much of his game is spamming his elite attribute and he can look terrible on the rare occasions it's not working.

With Fultz, I don't think he's 30+ scorer on crazy efficiency like Harden, but I think he may end up being more stable. And funner to watch because he's so unpredictable - I find Harden/Westbrook some of the most tiresome stars to watch.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Jackson is not a better handler or passer than Smart. That's crazy.

He's above-average for a 4, as he was in college, but his handle is mediocre to poor for a wing. Smart has a pretty decent handle and very good vision/passing ability. He just has no explosion to take advantage of it.

I agree with the Smart thing. For me, the biggest difference between Bradley and Smart is Smart's ability to play PG. Bradley has very little ability to run the offense, while Smart actually can. Of course, the shooting is where he goes south, but he's got some handle.

But I disagree with Jackson's handle. Maybe he doesn't have a PG handle, but from what I've seen this season, he was a surprisingly good ball handler.

He's like Jaylen - he's got good handles in space, but they break down under pressure. Josh just looked better in college because he played on a team with amazing spacing and multiple NBA perimeter talents letting him play to his strengths.

College Smart wasn't a great dribbler, was underexposed. Jackson isn't as capable as Smart in general, but for his position, I think he's further along. You're right, though - and Kansas did have such great spacing, it's possible Jackson's point forward ability is overrated. Definitely think his later season scoring is - didn't think to measure his handles against the same facts.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Would be pretty wild if Ainge were right on this. My read of Fultz is that, yes, he is more of a Harden-level athlete than a Wade-level (and certainly below Wall/Westbrook)

Harden isn't the typical run-and-jump athlete you see in the NBA, but he does have one elite athletic trait - deceleration.

When I talked to Marcus Elliott of P3 Applied Sports Science last month, he was quick to mention the peculiar gifts of the Rockets star. “Harden is barely average in almost every metric we look at related to athleticism, except for deceleration metrics,” Elliott told me. “And in those he’s one of the best athletes we’ve ever measured in any sport — in soccer, football, or basketball.”

https://theringer.com/james-hardens-brilliance-is-a-two-way-mirror-b158d1bf2e22

I think Fultz may be a better vertical and lateral athlete than Harden but I'm not sure he's elite at any one thing athletically.

This is good stuff. Deceleration = something you see in Harden but have no way to describe until you see it in front of you like this. I think this is probably the main aspect of JH that has caused me to describe him in the past as Messi-esque in his preternatural ability to lull defenders to sleep, get them to shift one way with a dribble or step in one direction and blow by them when they inevitably lunge at the ball. Never really seen anybody who draws defenders in close in the same way by design. It also happens to be part of why he turns it over so much—Messi turns it over plenty too but his turnovers are 80 yards from his own goal so nobody really cares.

Yeah, so LBF could tell us how up our scouts are on this kind of testing, and how much of it is hyping a reinvented wheel - but as a fan GM, I'm as interested in this kind of information as I am basic combine numbers.

[amory87]

we should've known Fultz wasn't the pick when Danny took him "out to dinner" and they went to B Good.

Read on Twitter

"You can get anything you want after that workout, Markelle. Just as long as it's under $5, that's all I have on me."

[Absinthe]

Dennis Smith is going to be the best PG in the draft, in my opinion. He's the most explosive and the best shooter. If not for his ACL injury he'd be the top pick, no question.

Ball will be a great floor general like Kidd, but I can't see him being an elite scorer. Fultz's ceiling is maybe someone like Kemba Walker and his floor is someone like Jeremy Lin. Which means he's going to be a lower tier all star on a mediocre team or a fringe starter ceiling/floor wise.

[cpower]

Ainge loves athletic guy, so I think Jackson might be it.

[sam_I_am]

Dennis Smith is going to be the best PG in the draft, in my opinion. He's the most explosive and the best shooter. If not for his ACL injury he'd be the top pick, no question.

Ball will be a great floor general like Kidd, but I can't see him being an elite scorer. Fultz's ceiling is maybe someone like Kemba Walker and his floor is someone like Jeremy Lin. Which means he's going to be a lower tier all star on a mediocre team or a fringe starter ceiling/floor wise.

Smith is best athlete in draft and probably has the highest upside offensively (but he has a long way to go to reach it unlike Fultz who has much greater skill ). Last year prior to ACL injury his HS highlight videos were jaw dropping. His 6-3 wingspan makes him a defensive liability to average at best. If Danny gets pick 7 from Minny I wouldn't be sad to see us pick him.

[soxfan2003]

From what I saw, I agree that Jackson at KU had much better spacing than let's say Wiggins as KU especially when Embiid was healthy. But I would still say, he displayed better dribbling/passing than Wiggins who at least does seem to be slowly improving in those areas. I would bet against Jackson being a truly great offensive point forward but I think he can be a good ballhander for a 3.

I am just really concerned right now that Ainge trades the right to Jackson for Butler. 25 year old Butler with healthy knees, I can understand it. Soon to be 28 year old Butler with shaky knees and just 2 years left on his contract, I really question it given the gap with Golden State is so wide. And Jackson will probably be ready to contribute quite a bit by year 2 since he is a bit older for his draft class.

I only believe Butler is worth like the 5th pick in this years draft. Just don't think his game is going to age that great given recent injury history. Boston would be bailing out the Bulls and I suspect just bidding against themselves.

[soxfan2003]

Ainge loves athletic guy, so I think Jackson might be it.

I hope so. I don't think Jackson will be this big time star but I suspect he will contribute quickly and be young Iggy like in terms of impact which is a real nice asset to have given the Celtics other assets. That isn't bad when there doesn't appear to be any Duncan/Lebron or even Curry/Leonard/Davis type players in the top 3.

[sam_I_am]

One reason I like Jackson is that it gives us an avenue to compete with GSW. Fultz or Tatum and Hayward are not going to turn us into a shooting team to match the Warriors. But maybe with a bad boy team with physical versatile defenders like Smart, JJ and JB supplementing Al, IT and GH we can beat them up and gain an advantage.

[sully00]

Celtics draft evaluation sucks. They will draft a SF that can't shoot, a backup role player, over a game changing 25ppg all-star guard.

Wrong. Fultz may put up empty stats on a losing philly team next year, that doesnt make him an sll star guard.

Fultz may have thought Celtics drafting him was a given, and maybe didn't show up for his workout with the Cs, but Magic thought his workout with Lakers was exceptional, so did Philly. All the scouts project this kid to be a super star, with a floor of an all-star in a few years.

Magic gave Danny leverage he needed to make the trade, you need to pay attention. There was no reason for Magic to do what he did, as far fawning over Fultz and making an offer to move up. PHI was the only team that could give Ainge what he wanted, that had picks that look like a top 5 pick. Ainge was very well could have been screwed and stuck in a situation where he was either going to burn the #1 pick on a player he had ranked 4th or 5th on his board or more likely take a player at #1 that he could get with a 3-5 pick.

The workout was Fultz opportunity to show Ainge and Co. they were wrong. That he wasn't they guy who scored 25 ppg while his team lost by 20. That he was more explosive than he looks on tape and he just wasn't able to do it.

I would much rather a guy stick with his evaluation than cower to the hype and pressure. Doesn't hurt that I felt the same way all season/

[Slartibartfast]

Wrong. Fultz may put up empty stats on a losing philly team next year, that doesnt make him an sll star guard.

Fultz may have thought Celtics drafting him was a given, and maybe didn't show up for his workout with the Cs, but Magic thought his workout with Lakers was exceptional, so did Philly. All the scouts project this kid to be a super star, with a floor of an all-star in a few years.

Magic gave Danny leverage he needed to make the trade, you need to pay attention. There was no reason for Magic to do what he did, as far fawning over Fultz and making an offer to move up. PHI was the only team that could give Ainge what he wanted, that had picks that look like a top 5 pick. Ainge was very well could have been screwed and stuck in a situation where he was either going to burn the #1 pick on a player he had ranked 4th or 5th on his board or more likely take a player at #1 that he could get with a 3-5 pick.

The workout was Fultz opportunity to show Ainge and Co. they were wrong. That he wasn't they guy who scored 25 ppg while his team lost by 20. That he was more explosive than he looks on tape and he just wasn't able to do it.

I would much rather a guy stick with his evaluation than cower to the hype and pressure. Doesn't hurt that I felt the same way all season/

You a Tatum guy, Sully?

[soxfan2003]

Well there it is then. Still think they should've gotten more in the trade. No need to do it this early unless there's another follow up move.

There was several reasons to do it early. Celtics can persuade more players to do workouts. In addition, Ainge may have liked Josh Jackson a little more than Fultz and if that is the case, you do the deal ASAP since you don't want to risk taking a player at #1 that you don't even want and Philly goes in another direction.

I am happy with the trade as long as Ainge takes Josh Jackson. JJ I believe has a better chance of being a very good player that JBrown.

Trade is a gamble for both teams but I like the odds on Boston's side since I think there is perhaps a 60% chance Boston gets a top 2-7 pick out out of it. If Lakers get PG, I expect those odds to go down since perhaps Kings get better than expected or end up with the #1 pick in 2019 that remains in Philly's hands.

[Ben-N1ce]

One reason I like Jackson is that it gives us an avenue to compete with GSW. Fultz or Tatum and Hayward are not going to turn us into a shooting team to match the Warriors. But maybe with a bad boy team with physical versatile defenders like Smart, JJ and JB supplementing Al, IT and GH we can beat them up and gain an advantage.

GS basically had the best defense and offense in the league. Celtics aren't any closer with Jackson or Tatum. They need multiple top 20 players on the roster. They might have one right now who is injured and 5'9.