Assessing Expectations for Trae in Year 2

The problems behind Trae Young's signature plays

Despite the fact that Young is putting up eye-popping numbers, his individual success hasn't been contagious. The Hawks are an atrocious 19-44, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. If Young and the Hawks expect to be playing meaningful games at this point next season, they'll need to get a lot better on both ends of the floor.

Spoiler:
The fact that the offense is so bad is most surprising, because their primary ball handler is one of the most talented young playmakers in the game. When Young is on the court, the Hawks score at league-average rates, putting up 111 points per 100, and that number surges up to 115 on possessions that begin with Young bringing up the ball.

That supporting cast absolutely collapses without Young. When Young sits, Atlanta scores only 94 points per 100 possessions, a number so low it's almost 10 points worse than the worst overall offense in the NBA...

That gargantuan on/off differential demonstrates how potent Young's offense can be. When he's on the court he has the power to transform a hideous offense into an average one. Imagine if he had better teammates. But Young is not blameless here. The Hawks' defense is their biggest problem, and Young is a major component of that issue.

Looking at the data, the best two offenses in the NBA are the Dallas Mavericks and whichever team is playing against Young and the Hawks. Doncic and the Mavs lead the NBA by scoring 116.1 points per 100 possessions. When Young is on the court, Hawks opponents are also pouring in 116.1 per 100. Oof.
And just as Atlanta's offensive on/off numbers reveal how important Young is on that end of the floor, the team's defensive numbers have an opposite plotline. With Young on the bench, the Hawks' defensive rating is 106.8, which would rank just below the Clippers for sixth best in the NBA.

When Young misses a 3-point shot, opponents should start licking their chops. Other teams turn Young's missed 3s into points at freakishly high rates.

Young misses 64% of his 3s, and opponents grab defensive boards on about 75% of those misses. On the ensuing possessions, as those defenses turn into offenses, they rack up a wild 127 points per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum tracking data. Folks, the league average offensive efficiency following a missed 3 is 112.

In other words, the Hawks play historically bad defense after their best player misses his signature shot.

The Hawks struggle with every phase of the game, but their defensive awakening has to start with Young.

ESPN

Post #133 » by **Jamaaliver** » Thu Mar 5, 2020 12:56 am

Read on Twitter

Post #134 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:03 pm

The legend continues...

Read on Twitter

jayu70 · Post #135 » by **jayu70** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:14 am

If it's over...

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Post #136 » by **Jamaaliver** » Fri Apr 3, 2020 5:06 pm

Every NBA Team's Best Surprise This Season

Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young's Advanced Craftiness

Foul-drawing is a skill that rubs some fans the wrong way, as it often crosses the invisible line that separates gamesmanship from flopping.

However you feel about Trae Young's efforts to embellish contact—particularly his penchant for feigning whiplash whenever touched on drives—you have to admit he's developed a knack for preventing defenders from trying to physically overpower his slight 6'1", 180-pound frame.

As a rookie in 2018-19, Young's free-throw rate (the ratio of foul shots to field-goal attempts) was 33.3 percent. That's a good number, particularly for a first-year guard. It ranked 39th all time among rookies who attempted at least 15 shots per game.

He took his craft to another level this season, upping his free-throw rate to 44.8 percent. James Harden, basically the king of foul-drawing, is the only active guard to top that figure in a season. If you're looking for reasons Young was the sole source of offense in Atlanta, this ability deserves prime consideration.

Everyone knew Young was a threat from long range, and 2018-19 also taught us he was grossly underrated as a passer coming out of college. But few could have expected the remarkable, efficiency-boosting trickery he'd use to sucker opponents into putting him on the line so often.

Bleacher Report

Post #137 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Apr 7, 2020 2:23 pm

Read on Twitter

Spoiler:

jayu70 · Post #138 » by **jayu70** » Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:24 pm

What was interesting during this talk with Schlenk is he admitted that he didn’t foresee Young’s massive production rise from Year 1 to Year 2 happening, which could explain why Schlenk didn’t fill the roster with better complementary pieces. He wants Young to continue getting better with his decision-making, limiting turnovers and working off the ball more because he’s one of the best catch-and-shoot 3-point shooters in the league. Young shot an absurd 46.6 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s this season, but only 8.6 percent of all his attempts came off the catch. That number needs to increase to help Young’s overall efficiency. He didn’t mention Young’s defense but did mention that the Hawks “obviously” need to improve on that end of the floor. Some of that is certainly personnel based, and some of that is just natural internal growth, but it’s clearly an issue that needs to be addressed moving forward.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

jayu70 · Post #139 » by **jayu70** » Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:40 pm

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Post #140 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:03 am

jayu70 wrote:

Read on Twitter

This is an incredibly in-depth read on Trae and his fit in our offense.

Thanks for this link, Jaybird.