rpa wrote:Fun bit of data:
From the 2010 to 2018 draft (9 drafts--the final one being the guys that are due for extensions by this summer) I count 12 guards, 12 wings, and 21 bigs* taken in the top 5 picks (so 45 total players).
Of those 12 each the wings and guards yielded 6 all-stars apiece* for an average hit rate of 50%.
Ask me how many of the bigs made the all star team. Go ahead ASK ME!! 5* (that's a 24% hit rate)
Yeah, despite having 75% more total players they yielded fewer allstars. And when you look at that list the first thing that sticks out is that 2 of them were clear #1 picks in their year, a 3rd would have probably gone #1 if not for an injury (Embiid), and a 4th had an argument for #1 but for his attitude (big Cuz). So what's the point? Well, based on recent history you probably shouldn't be drafting a big in the top 5. If you do draft a big in the top 5 it better either be at #1 and/or a guy who has a really clear argument for #1.
* First caveat: Some of the bigs cold possibly go into the wings category since they have an argument for being able to play the 3 (but this isn't many of them.
* Guards: Wall, Kyrie, Beal, Oladipo, Russell, Young; wings: Wiggins, Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Tatum, Doncic
* Bigs: Cousins, Embiid, KAT, Porzingis, Davis
awesome post!