2025 Blazer Draft Prospects

[Walton1one]

This is an excerpt from Sam Vecenie\The Athletic about the general strength of this draft, it is likely why (IMO) many teams are positioning themselves, b\c while Cooper Flagg (and Dylan Harper) are the prizes at the top, there is a very short list of 3-4 players after that, who are exciting (Bailey, Edgecombe, Jakucionis) and after that, the draft becomes real flat.

In general, scouts are mixed on the class. There are two players at the top in Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Rutgers’ Dylan Harper who receive universal acclaim when I speak with executives across the league. But that mid-lottery zone is a question mark right now, with several players who either display great scoring skill and little else, or a lot of other skills with questionable scoring ability.

Several big men have emerged as intriguing prospects, both old and young. That has actually given the class a bit of depth. But there are questions about the depth of the wing class as the draft stretches on.

Teams are searching high and low for intriguing players in this class. Some are great defensive specialists who have impressed but have questionable offensive talents, whereas others are high-level scorers with flaws beyond that.

The guard group is very young but has a lot of long-term upside depending on who proves themselves worthy of staying in the draft.

Players like Alabama’s Labaron Philon and Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears have created a real degree of excitement. Yet there are seemingly few complete players in this class, and those players may not be quite ready for the highest level.

All told, this is not shaping up to be the monstrous class that was projected in some corners. It looks like a good group of talent that will certainly exceed the production of the 2024 class, but it’s not one of the best classes of the last decade.

[zzaj]

This is an excerpt from Sam Vecenie\The Athletic about the general strength of this draft, it is likely why (IMO) many teams are positioning themselves, b\c while Cooper Flagg (and Dylan Harper) are the prizes at the top, there is a very short list of 3-4 players after that, who are exciting (Bailey, Edgecombe, Jakucionis) and after that, the draft becomes real flat.

In general, scouts are mixed on the class. There are two players at the top in Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Rutgers’ Dylan Harper who receive universal acclaim when I speak with executives across the league. But that mid-lottery zone is a question mark right now, with several players who either display great scoring skill and little else, or a lot of other skills with questionable scoring ability.

Several big men have emerged as intriguing prospects, both old and young. That has actually given the class a bit of depth. But there are questions about the depth of the wing class as the draft stretches on.

Teams are searching high and low for intriguing players in this class. Some are great defensive specialists who have impressed but have questionable offensive talents, whereas others are high-level scorers with flaws beyond that.

The guard group is very young but has a lot of long-term upside depending on who proves themselves worthy of staying in the draft.

Players like Alabama’s Labaron Philon and Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears have created a real degree of excitement. Yet there are seemingly few complete players in this class, and those players may not be quite ready for the highest level.

All told, this is not shaping up to be the monstrous class that was projected in some corners. It looks like a good group of talent that will certainly exceed the production of the 2024 class, but it’s not one of the best classes of the last decade.

Agreed with consensus on the 2025 draft. Outside of the first 3 maybe 4 picks I think it's relatively light. I think last year will be a deeper draft than this one. I think both Fears and Flemming will be AS level talent that get taken too low.

[Walton1one]

Hugo Gonzalez had a big game for Real Madrid in the ACB. An 18yr old kid, putting up this kind of performance in a very tough league (2nd behind NBA?) is impressive. He will be a riser by draft day, not surprised at all if he goes lottery (LY he was viewed as a Top 7 prospect)

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[Walton1one]

Another international player on the rise, picking up steam.

Read on Twitter

[Tim Lehrbach]

Can't say I disagree with the concerns about the quality depth of this draft. I haven't studied too much yet, but from what little I know, a lot of the guys are not impressing me. Still, Flagg and Harper at the top are massive gets for whichever teams are lucky enough to land in the top two.

[Walton1one]

I think what the consensus has been so far is that:

There are clearly 2 players at the top: Flagg, Harper

Then there are 3-4 players in a tier below that: Bailey, Jakucionis for sure, I would add Edgecombe to that list, and after that? Total crapshoot, you could end up with a better player at #20 than the team drafting at #6.

Now some may say, that is great for Cronin\Schmitz, but I would counter that thier record is spotty (and that is being generous) outside of the obvious (Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan) picks that they made. I would not be too trustworthy of a GM\scouting staff that said they had "lottery grades" on Murray\Rupert, both of whom I like BTW, but lottery level players, that is a reach. Oh yeah, and they also passed on multiple rotation players in the 2nd round this year in favor of....cash, which is always a favorite acquisition of cheap\mickey mouse run organizations.

[Norm2953]

It'll be interesting to see if Aday Mara ends up a draft prospect after all.

UCLA vs Oregon play on Thursday and Mara after an injury to their starter, has started to get
PT. Likely needs to get a lot stronger in order to play but is 7-3 240lbs and is blocking shots
and is a double digit scorer and rebounder.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I think what the consensus has been so far is that:

There are clearly 2 players at the top: Flagg, Harper

Then there are 3-4 players in a tier below that: Bailey, Jakucionis for sure, I would add Edgecombe to that list, and after that? Total crapshoot, you could end up with a better player at #20 than the team drafting at #6.

Now some may say, that is great for Cronin\Schmitz, but I would counter that thier record is spotty (and that is being generous) outside of the obvious (Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan) picks that they made. I would not be too trustworthy of a GM\scouting staff that said they had "lottery grades" on Murray\Rupert, both of whom I like BTW, but lottery level players, that is a reach. Oh yeah, and they also passed on multiple rotation players in the 2nd round this year in favor of....cash, which is always a favorite acquisition of cheap\mickey mouse run organizations.

Yeah, I know pre-draft projections are hardly an exact science, but I'm to the point where it's going to be a major disappointment when the Blazers (probably) end up picking outside the top two. Is there likely another star to be had in this draft? Sure. Do we know who he is or have reason to believe the Blazers will pick him at, say, #8? Sure don't.

I do think the draft record you cite above is pretty good, but that's kinda the point: even when you draft well, you may not land great players. You either need luck to climb to the top for a can't-miss prospect, or you need luck to get a breakout star later. Either way, drafting (and rebuilding altogether) is largely luck.

As much as I hate Hinkie, the fundamental logic of taking as many swings as you can is sound once you're already committed to a deep rebuild. Where I depart from Hinkie is on the championship-or-bust, burn it to the ground philosophy, but if your franchise is already there, then you have no choice but to chase draft dreams. The Blazers should not only be tanking hard but should be churning through assets to continually get better (draft) ones. Whatever opportunities we may speculate Cronin has or hasn't had in front of him, we know this much: nothing is happening, and the Blazers have a very poor stock of assets for a team that's been tanking for three seasons already.

[Walton1one]

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I would say VJ Edgecombe, has cemented himself in the top 5. Really coming on strong

last 7 games:

18-4-2 vs CIN
15-4-4 w\2 STL vs ASU
14-7-2 w/2 STL vs ARZ
18-4-4 w\3 STL vs TCU
30-1-3 w\2 STL vs KSU
21-6-3 w/ 2 STL & 2 BLK vs UTA
28-4-5 vs BYU

3pt shooting in those games
2-4
3-6
2-7
1-3
3-7
4-6
6-8

[zzaj]

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I would say VJ Edgecombe, has cemented himself in the top 5. Really coming on strong

last 7 games:

18-4-2 vs CIN
15-4-4 w\2 STL vs ASU
14-7-2 w/2 STL vs ARZ
18-4-4 w\3 STL vs TCU
30-1-3 w\2 STL vs KSU
21-6-3 w/ 2 STL & 2 BLK vs UTA
28-4-5 vs BYU

3pt shooting in those games
2-4
3-6
2-7
1-3
3-7
4-6
6-8

I'm personally still a bit out on VJ. Maybe it's just my decades long distaste from building around 6'3" SGs...

[Walton1one]

I think what the consensus has been so far is that:

There are clearly 2 players at the top: Flagg, Harper

Then there are 3-4 players in a tier below that: Bailey, Jakucionis for sure, I would add Edgecombe to that list, and after that? Total crapshoot, you could end up with a better player at #20 than the team drafting at #6.

Now some may say, that is great for Cronin\Schmitz, but I would counter that thier record is spotty (and that is being generous) outside of the obvious (Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan) picks that they made. I would not be too trustworthy of a GM\scouting staff that said they had "lottery grades" on Murray\Rupert, both of whom I like BTW, but lottery level players, that is a reach. Oh yeah, and they also passed on multiple rotation players in the 2nd round this year in favor of....cash, which is always a favorite acquisition of cheap\mickey mouse run organizations.

Yeah, I know pre-draft projections are hardly an exact science, but I'm to the point where it's going to be a major disappointment when the Blazers (probably) end up picking outside the top two. Is there likely another star to be had in this draft? Sure. Do we know who he is or have reason to believe the Blazers will pick him at, say, #8? Sure don't.

I do think the draft record you cite above is pretty good, but that's kinda the point: even when you draft well, you may not land great players. You either need luck to climb to the top for a can't-miss prospect, or you need luck to get a breakout star later. Either way, drafting (and rebuilding altogether) is largely luck.

As much as I hate Hinkie, the fundamental logic of taking as many swings as you can is sound once you're already committed to a deep rebuild. Where I depart from Hinkie is on the championship-or-bust, burn it to the ground philosophy, but if your franchise is already there, then you have no choice but to chase draft dreams. The Blazers should not only be tanking hard but should be churning through assets to continually get better (draft) ones. Whatever opportunities we may speculate Cronin has or hasn't had in front of him, we know this much: nothing is happening, and the Blazers have a very poor stock of assets for a team that's been tanking for three seasons already.

Completely agree and this is the crux of the problem with Cronin

POR does not have a star\franchise player
POR is not going to be able to get such a player via FA

That leaves two avenues, draft or via trade, and in order to get such a player via trade they are going to need a lot of assets. Enough assets that they can trade for such a player and still have a competitive roster around that player

That is why you trade for picks, you keep swinging, you keep acquiring assets.

Let's say POR does end up getting another 25' pick and they end up at #8 and another pick in the low 20's. You are taking 2 swings at finding a rotation player, either for your own team or as an asset to trade to another team, and yeah if you get very lucky, maybe even one of those players becomes your franchise player.

It is why trading away any asset, even a 2nd round pick, for cash is just dumb. I can understand trading #34 for (3) future 2nd's, even if those 2nd's are not likely to be as good as a #34.

Also why, re-signing Thybulle was dumb (unless he is dealt at the deadline), I can understand retaining him to then trade him for assets, but that cap space $11mil, could have had POR at $15mil under the luxury tax and they could have utilized that space to take a bad contract and gain assets. This is what almost every other team in their position has done or is doing: OKC, HOU, BRK, GS, CHA, UTA, WAS etc...

If Thybulle walks for nothing (declines PO) then it was a complete misuse of POR assets, I'd argue it has been now already. What are they going to get for him? (1) 2nd round pick? Teams are getting multiple picks for using their cap space, so Cronin has already screwed up IMO>

[BlazersBroncos]

With his recent play Ace is pretty clearly cementing himself as #2 in my books.

With his shooting a trio of Camara-Bailey-Avdija could be pretty deadly moving forward.

My issue is IDK what to do w/ Sharpe. Kid has so much talent but I just cant bet on him putting it together. I am extremley wary of paying him. On the other hand, IDK how to value him. I would want a pick in the 8-10 range and another asset - but I can see other teams scoffing at that evaluation.

My dream would be finding a way to turn Sharpe and any/all vets into a second FRP that we can use on Kasparas.

Cooper or Ace + Kasparas would be franchise shifting. Similar to the Roy and LMA draft.

But its a pipe dream and that pipe is filled with the devils lettuce.

[Walton1one]

With his recent play Ace is pretty clearly cementing himself as #2 in my books.

With his shooting a trio of Camara-Bailey-Avdija could be pretty deadly moving forward.

My issue is IDK what to do w/ Sharpe. Kid has so much talent but I just cant bet on him putting it together. I am extremley wary of paying him. On the other hand, IDK how to value him. I would want a pick in the 8-10 range and another asset - but I can see other teams scoffing at that evaluation.

My dream would be finding a way to turn Sharpe and any/all vets into a second FRP that we can use on Kasparas.

Cooper or Ace + Kasparas would be franchise shifting. Similar to the Roy and LMA draft.

But its a pipe dream and that pipe is filled with the devils lettuce.

Yeah probably a pipe dream, but I like the thought.

[Walton1one]

No Ceilings, scout on Asa Newell

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/magic-8-ballers-time-for-a-renewell?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=536361&post_id=155637536&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Some excerpts

His talent, size, and upside were obvious to evaluators, but Newell has never truly featured as a centerpiece for most of the teams he’s been on. However, Newell traded personal glory for wins as he was consistently part of great teams that succeeded at every level.

Newell hasn’t had many chances to get the ball and show out like a star, even though he’s had a star-like impact on the floor.

Where Asa Newell is crushing hearts and dreams for opponents on the offensive end is by the basket. A whopping 166 of Newell’s 211 shot attempts have been two-pointers this year, with one coming on a jumper and just nine on runners. Between hook shots and rim attempts, Newell is surviving and thriving right at the basket due to the various ways that he’s simply better than most SEC defenders that he faces.

No matter how Newell gets his rim attempts, he does it at an elite clip. Per Synergy, Newell is shooting an elite 73.5% at the basket, which, admittedly, is buttressed by his penchant for dunking the basketball. He’s got 42 dunks on the season and has shown no sign of stopping any time soon.

As a cutter, Newell ranks as “Very Good” per Synergy due to his 66.7% shooting and lithe, aggressive darting to the rim. It’s rare to see a big man move with such suddenness, but Newell makes it look routine. He’s also patient, rarely moves out of turn, and springs open quickly for an easy finish.

Newell’s a demon on the offensive glass, with a gargantuan 15.7% offensive rebounding percentage....Newell is patiently putting down his putback attempts at a robust 70.2% clip. The value of putbacks isn’t always noted for offenses, but Newell having a steady way to score at the rim without him creating it in the traditional sense is a feather in his cap.

He’s leading the Bulldogs in scoring but almost entirely off the ball. That’s an odd juxtaposition, given most leading scorers on teams have a more significant hand in initiating possessions, but it’s worked for Georgia and Newell. He’s shown how strong of an off-ball weapon he can be, even if it would show a higher ceiling were he to start doing more with the ball in his hands.

Right now, Newell is a great complementary offensive player. By adding more threatening options to what he does when he rolls or pops, Newell has the chance to deserve serious consideration on more on-ball attempts.

As of today, Newell is much more of a theoretical shooter than an actual one. He’s 12-of-45, or 26.7%, from three this year, taking a modest 2.3 threes a game, all of which are eerily similar to his 41.5% clip on 17-of-41 long bombs from last year at Montverde. Such a small sample size for both indicates that there’s no way to determine how potent of a shooter Newell is, especially when the tape speaks to his inconsistencies.

Security is great for a mid-round draft pick, not a lottery pick. For me, it’s the untapped potential that drives Newell into his deserved lottery status. Right now, he’s a good player; if he can round out his screening, deep shooting, or passing, much less a combination of the three, Newell becomes a different player. That player deserves serious lottery looks as soon as the upper crust of players has been selected.

To fully appreciate Asa Newell on defense, I’ll start with stats. Per BartTorvik, Newell is one of ten freshmen in the country with at least a 4.0% block percentage and a 2.0% steals percentage. If you’ve read something of mine (or really by most No Ceilings members) before, you’ll have heard that each percentage is a reliable statistical indicator of how good a player will be at the next level with said skill.

That’s not where the statistical significance stops, however. When expanded to freshmen with at least a BPM of nine alongside those blocks and steals percentages, we’re left with just Newell and Cooper Flagg this year. When you expand it out to the entire database, it’s a pretty notable set of names:

He’s the ultimate high-floor player, as there just aren’t many things that Newell can’t do on the court.

That’s an odd sell for a player who I have seventh on my personal draft board, but the description undersells Newell’s impact. He’ll step in from day one as a likely starter in the NBA and will only get better. If he stays in his role forever, he’ll solve half of a team’s frontcourt for at least a half-decade, bringing consistent, easy offense and many different defensive solutions.

If he does keep developing, however, the possibility for a late-blooming star turn for Newell is in play.....That outcome is a single-digit percentage at most, but most of Newell’s outcomes are becoming a high-level starter on both ends in the NBA. That’s something that has lottery value for teams, even when there are multiple stars at play. He may not have the same star-sell as some other freshmen. Still, I’ve seen enough (and watched it over a few times) to feel confident in Newell being one of the more productive members of this draft class, regardless of the situation he enters at the next level.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Welp, turning our attention both in this thread and elsewhere to backup plans for this draft is gaining steam. It's still very early, but for the sake of discussion, let's say Flagg, Harper, Bailey, and Edgecombe are off the table when we draft. If we still believe we need to shoot for highest star potential (rather than, say, fit or NBA-readiness), who's our guy?

[Case2012]

I've been landing in the top 3 more than i did at 6 or 7 on tankathon now that we're at 9. Mostly at 3 but sometimes 1. Came here to specifically to talk about Bailey. Flagg is the clear number 1 to me still with Harper a close second but for our team getting Bailey would give us that true superstar we've been tanking for. The problem i have though is trying to figure out how they all fit together. You would think the starting line up after we trade grant,simons,and ayton would go Scoot,Sharpe,Bailey,Deni,Clingan. But Camara has proven to be probably a first team defense player and that ideal 3 and d guy. So then you start thinking.. Ok Maybe it goes Scoot,Bailey,Camara,Deni,Clingan? Leaving Shaedon as a 6th man? There's no way i'm starting him over those other guys who have way higher motors, which has always been Shae's biggest drawback. All that talent and athleticism but no fire.

I think if we lucked out into the top 3 selling high on him to get another top pick might be the best move because i absolutely can see him being an issue if he stays in that 6th man role and asking out. This is all based on whether we even get into the top 3 of course and land one of bailey harper or flagg. Sharpe would be the odd man out i think. Or, honestly I would probably use him to move into the top 3 if possible. 9 plus Shaedon netting you Bailey would be a no brainer for me. Bailey has that it factor and plays with intensity that I've never seen even a fraction of from Shaedon.

As an aside I'm really sour on Clingan's health and conditioning. I think it was insane taking him that high and not getting Edey who
crushed him at the combine and I think has proved everyone wrong by now. I like DC but there's no way he ever averages more than 20-25 minutes a game and plays more than 60 games a year, which puts him firmly in bust territory. I hope I'm wrong, his advanced numbers were crazy at the beginning of the year but he's not nearly as mobile as Edey who's had no issues starting for the second best team in the west. I bring this up because i really don't trust Schmitz as our draft guru.

[BlazersBroncos]

I've been landing in the top 3 more than i did at 6 or 7 on tankathon now that we're at 9. Mostly at 3 but sometimes 1. Came here to specifically to talk about Bailey. Flagg is the clear number 1 to me still with Harper a close second but for our team getting Bailey would give us that true superstar we've been tanking for. The problem i have though is trying to figure out how they all fit together. You would think the starting line up after we trade grant,simons,and ayton would go Scoot,Sharpe,Bailey,Deni,Clingan. But Camara has proven to be probably a first team defense player and that ideal 3 and d guy. So then you start thinking.. Ok Maybe it goes Scoot,Bailey,Camara,Deni,Clingan? Leaving Shaedon as a 6th man? There's no way i'm starting him over those other guys who have way higher motors, which has always been Shae's biggest drawback. All that talent and athleticism but no fire.

I think if we lucked out into the top 3 selling high on him to get another top pick might be the best move because i absolutely can see him being an issue if he stays in that 6th man role and asking out. This is all based on whether we even get into the top 3 of course and land one of bailey harper or flagg. Sharpe would be the odd man out i think. Or, honestly I would probably use him to move into the top 3 if possible. 9 plus Shaedon netting you Bailey would be a no brainer for me. Bailey has that it factor and plays with intensity that I've never seen even a fraction of from Shaedon.

As an aside I'm really sour on Clingan's health and conditioning. I think it was insane taking him that high and not getting Edey who
crushed him at the combine and I think has proved everyone wrong by now. I like DC but there's no way he ever averages more than 20-25 minutes a game and plays more than 60 games a year, which puts him firmly in bust territory. I hope I'm wrong, his advanced numbers were crazy at the beginning of the year but he's not nearly as mobile as Edey who's had no issues starting for the second best team in the west. I bring this up because i really don't trust Schmitz as our draft guru.

I am starting to feel the same way re Sharpe.

Ideal world we could jump in the draft for Ace of Flagg - then potentially move Sharpe for a late lotto pick and another future protected pick - I can see some teams being enamored with him still.

Dont agree regarding DC though. Conditioning is a pretty fixable issue with time. I certainly dont think Clingan is lazy. And I am of mind that if you have a non-generational center leaning into defense is a better call than offense. DC has miles to go offensively, but all advanced metrics have him as an elite defender already. I also think that while its not guaranteed for either, there is a higher chance DC can be playable late in a meaningful game than Edey - who is regularily sat down the stretch since he gets killed on PNR switches.

But back to Sharpe - lets say SAS is willing to trade their 2nd lotto pick (ATL) and a future protected FRP - we jump and snag Ace while using that SAS ATL pick on a combo guard like Ben Saraf - someone that can play alongside both Scoot and whomever we are using at SG (Camara or Deni). Thats a pretty nice outcome IMO.

I am just very scared to pay Sharpe. Pat Williams was much crappier and still got 20M AV - Sharpe could be looking at 30M, and at that cost I am very much out. There isnt a chance we get him for Pat Williams money either IMO.

[zzaj]

Guys that I like in the Blazers' range currently:

Tre Johnson - I think he'll end up a starting SG in the NBA.
Asa Newell - hard for me to guage. A lot I don't like and a lot I like. His face looks exactly like Rupert.
Jeremiah Fears - Kid is a BALLER. Reminds me of Iverson but taller.
Rasheer Fleming - Fleming is going to rocket up boards once people start focusing on the draft and noticing his 7'5" wingspan. IMO, all-star level talent in the correct situation. Reminds me of Kawhi.

[Walton1one]

Right now, POR probably ends up with the 10th or 12th pick. Kind of bad spot to be in this draft.

Doubt Asa Newell is there
There might be (1) of Kneuppel or McNeeley
Possibly 2-3 of some interesting IINTL guys like Traore, Saraf, Penda, Essengue, Gonzalez

No Ceilings latest draft board has:

FLAGG
HARPER
BAILEY
JAKUCIONIS
EDGECOME

1-5, This is pretty much unchanged and consistent among most mock drafts

6 JOHNSON
7 DEMIN
8 NEWELL
9 QUEEN
10 MCNEELEY
11 MALUACH
12 SARAF
13 FEARS
14 MURRAY-BOYLES

Then you have guys like:
15 FLEMING
16 ESSENGUE
17 KNEUPPEL
18 CLIFFORD
19 SORBER
20 KAM JONES

I think they have some guys listed too low, like Traore, Penda, Gonzalez

[Tim Lehrbach]

Just some fanciful thinking but is there a team that would consider trading out of the top three for something like Sharpe, Clingan, and #10? I'm desperate to get into the top three lol.