OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[KD35Brah]

I checked BBall ref and looked at the Drtgs of all the players in games after Serge went down.

Does it matter much that Kanter had the 5th worst Drtg out of everyone else?

In order:

Dion(starter) - 116
Augustin - 114
Singler(starter) - 112
Morrow - 112


Kanter 110

Westbrook 108(this is without playing any defense what so ever; allowing transition pooints off volume TOs and allowing penetration while gambling all the time).

This changes drastically with KD, Roberson, and Ibaka in the lineup, along with Russ actually playing defense.

It's obvious that Donovan and Presti know about the defensive struggles last year and with Kanter. So expect them to work on it(especially with Donovan being a defensive 1st guy who drills defense into his players every practice).

[Soonerule]

I checked BBall ref and looked at the Drtgs of all the players in games after Serge went down.

Does it matter much that Kanter had the 5th worst Drtg out of everyone else?

In order:

Dion(starter) - 116
Augustin - 114
Singler(starter) - 112
Morrow - 112


Kanter 110

Westbrook 108(this is without playing any defense what so ever; allowing transition pooints off volume TOs and allowing penetration while gambling all the time).

This changes drastically with KD, Roberson, and Ibaka in the lineup, along with Russ actually playing defense.

It's obvious that Donovan and Presti know about the defensive struggles last year and with Kanter. So expect them to work on it(especially with Donovan being a defensive 1st guy who drills defense into his players every practice).

I sure hope that post was not designed to make me feel better. At least four out of 5 of those defensive stiffs will be our second team this season. oi vey

[dgonz424]

[quote=]
I'm just a guy on the internet, but my cubiclemate worked with the girlfriend of one of the Thunder players. He said she told him in the summer, before any of the Harden trade stuff came out, that Harden wanted out.

FWIW.[/quote]

What if he wanted out because the owner was so cheap and the coach wasn't that great? Could also be that he just wanted to be the man and get paid like the man. Anyway, the past is the past. I checked out Kanter's stats and he produced very well for your guys but in a relatively small sample size. Idk if his defense will improve though.

I believe you guys will make it back to the WCF and possibly the Finals if you guys stay healthy. I'm concerned about KD's foot injury though. Big guy + foot injury = no good.

I'd love to see a rematch of the Thunder vs Heat. It'll make for a heck of a story after injury plagued seasons for both.

Edit: Idk how the heck to reduce the quote. You know what I mean lol.

[Marcus50]

I checked BBall ref and looked at the Drtgs of all the players in games after Serge went down.

Does it matter much that Kanter had the 5th worst Drtg out of everyone else?

In order:

Dion(starter) - 116
Augustin - 114
Singler(starter) - 112
Morrow - 112


Kanter 110

Westbrook 108(this is without playing any defense what so ever; allowing transition pooints off volume TOs and allowing penetration while gambling all the time).

This changes drastically with KD, Roberson, and Ibaka in the lineup, along with Russ actually playing defense.

It's obvious that Donovan and Presti know about the defensive struggles last year and with Kanter. So expect them to work on it(especially with Donovan being a defensive 1st guy who drills defense into his players every practice).

Serge does not change Kanters numbers in any meaningful way but Kanter sure changes Serges

[bondom34]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/royceyoung/status/620399827109543940[/tweet]

Hey, I've stated my piece, but he is, for better or worse "our boy" ...for however long. So go get'em kid! I'm a Thunder fan, I'm sure not going to root against him.... talk about him? that's another story all together... but never root against him.

Maybe I have the kid all wrong and he will work on his defense. At this point he can't defend a brick, but I'm sure with hard work he will upgrade his skills and be able to guard the little old ladies from the Edmond rest home by the end of the season lol I kid, I'm sure he'll be able to stone those little old men too, at least the one's on oxygen.....

Pretty much how I feel, he's a Thunder now, and I'm standing with him til he proves otherwise.

[bondom34]

More reason for hope...


Kanter's D APM is bad, but not completely awful (close to Al Jefferson and bizarrely better than Adams was), and he played w Burke a ton, who is awful per gotbuckets. People said Harden was a bad defender, and it took him til this year to get better, Kanter certainly can, and for all his attitude issues I think Harden had some too. He's still young, and was in a bad spot. Here's to hoping OKC is better for him. That said, RAPM doesn't like him at all.

[KD35Brah]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2014/3/18/5488394/ncaa-tournament-florida-gators-defense-stats

How Donovan had an elite defense in Florida without a traditional shot blockign center. Obviously the NBA is different and Donovan knows this so he will adjust.

[spearsy23]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2014/3/18/5488394/ncaa-tournament-florida-gators-defense-stats

How Donovan had an elite defense in Florida without a traditional shot blockign center. Obviously the NBA is different and Donovan knows this so he will adjust.

... We're gonna see a similar defense to what Brooks was running and get killed from 3 again aren't we?

[KD35Brah]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2014/3/18/5488394/ncaa-tournament-florida-gators-defense-stats

How Donovan had an elite defense in Florida without a traditional shot blockign center. Obviously the NBA is different and Donovan knows this so he will adjust.

... We're gonna see a similar defense to what Brooks was running and get killed from 3 again aren't we?

Possibly. Maybe not.

Donovan has always been an aggressive type of defensive coach. We might see something closer to the 2015 Bucks defense than Brooks' defense.

We have the athleticism and length for it.

Here's an article on Donovan's defense since the 90s up until now.

http://www.scout.com/story/1542562-how-billy-donovan-fits-with-the-okc-thunder


This excerpt is how the Author thinks Donovan's will mesh with the Thunder.

In recent years, Billy Donovan allowed his Florida teams - which were often bigger at the 3, 4, and 5 positions than the teams they played - to switch between bigs and pack the paint, dropping on pick-and-rolls and staying down on shot fakes.
As the tallest starting lineup in the NBA, the Thunder match up well personnel-wise with those Florida teams. Stylistically, though, they're much more like the early Florida teams - wanting to block every shot and get every steal while relying on their length to recover - than the newer versions.

Donovan's always wanted to be aggressive on the defensive end of the ball, and unless a more experienced NBA assistant convinces him otherwise, it's likely that he'll use the Thunder's athleticism to trap and trade on defense. In certain lineups, it wouldn't be impossible for Oklahoma City to switch 3-5 or 1-4, and we should see more of that this year.
We'll also see more full-court pressure - particularly with Oklahoma City's secondary unit - but it will probably consist mostly of a man-to-man defense.

[Soonerule]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2014/3/18/5488394/ncaa-tournament-florida-gators-defense-stats

How Donovan had an elite defense in Florida without a traditional shot blockign center. Obviously the NBA is different and Donovan knows this so he will adjust.

thanks, I will definitely study that link more closely when I get time.

[KD35Brah]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2014/3/18/5488394/ncaa-tournament-florida-gators-defense-stats

How Donovan had an elite defense in Florida without a traditional shot blockign center. Obviously the NBA is different and Donovan knows this so he will adjust.

thanks, I will definitely study that link more closely when I get time.

These are great articles too.

How Donovan fits the Thunder(offense and defense). A huge article talking about the Gators' offense and defense since the 90s up until now.
http://www.scout.com/story/1542562-how-billy-donovan-fits-with-the-okc-thunder


"Billy Donovan, Florida's ferocious and efficient defense, and why the Gators might win it all"(article on the 2013 Gators' defense)
http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2013/2/28/4040312/billy-donovan-florida-gators-efficiency-stats-defense-offense?_ga=1.113933955.503352685.1418458409

[bondom34]

Good stuff man, I'm gaining optimism w/ Kanter honestly.

[KD35Brah]

Good stuff man, I'm gaining optimism w/ Kanter honestly.

From the 2nd article. Answers your question about giving up 3s.

Florida's defense succeeds because it does the things great basketball defenses do: It limits easy shots, prevents threes as much as possible, and forces turnovers that short-circuit offense.

Florida's opponents shoot just 61 percent at the rim, which was the average shooting percentage at the rim in 2011-12, according to hoop-math, but just 26 percent of opponents' shots come at the rim, a stingy figure compared even to Louisville's 29 percent in 2002-13, and a downright miserly one compared to the national average of 35 percent in 2011-12. Neither Young nor Murphy is as good inside as Kentucky's Anthony Davis or Kansas' Jeff Withey, but they combine to protect the rim well, and Wilbekin and Boynton are both superb at preventing penetration. The Gators also play great defense on two-point jumpers, allowing opponents to shoot just 30 percent on them.

Florida pays for that great interior defense, to a degree, as opponents take a greater percentage of their shots as threes — 35 percent of Florida opponents' shots have been threes this season, above the 33 percent 2011-12 average. But Florida defends those threes exceptionally well, allowing opponents to shoot only 30 percent from three. Only six defenses allowing 30 percent or under from three see more threes as a percentage of shots as Florida's does, and, of those teams, only Virginia and Pittsburgh tend toward man-to-man defense as much as Florida does.

[Andre Roberstan]

Good stuff man, I'm gaining optimism w/ Kanter honestly.

From the 2nd article. Answers your question about giving up 3s.

Florida's defense succeeds because it does the things great basketball defenses do: It limits easy shots, prevents threes as much as possible, and forces turnovers that short-circuit offense.

Florida's opponents shoot just 61 percent at the rim, which was the average shooting percentage at the rim in 2011-12, according to hoop-math, but just 26 percent of opponents' shots come at the rim, a stingy figure compared even to Louisville's 29 percent in 2002-13, and a downright miserly one compared to the national average of 35 percent in 2011-12. Neither Young nor Murphy is as good inside as Kentucky's Anthony Davis or Kansas' Jeff Withey, but they combine to protect the rim well, and Wilbekin and Boynton are both superb at preventing penetration. The Gators also play great defense on two-point jumpers, allowing opponents to shoot just 30 percent on them.

Florida pays for that great interior defense, to a degree, as opponents take a greater percentage of their shots as threes — 35 percent of Florida opponents' shots have been threes this season, above the 33 percent 2011-12 average. But Florida defends those threes exceptionally well, allowing opponents to shoot only 30 percent from three. Only six defenses allowing 30 percent or under from three see more threes as a percentage of shots as Florida's does, and, of those teams, only Virginia and Pittsburgh tend toward man-to-man defense as much as Florida does.

Very interesting, but I'd caution against taking anything about college defenses as gospel on how Donovan will run things. College teams don't tend to be as good at exploiting the cracks in defenses as pro teams, so you'll see things like presses and zones that are rarely used or only situationally used in the NBA. I think you can get a sense of Donovan's tendencies, but as far as specifics the pro game is different.

Even in terms of spacing it's different. Ettore Messina today was talking about how flare screens are much more effective in Euroleague (and probably college) than in the NBA because of the shorter 3pt line—in the NBA the big man defender will stand at the nail instead of further out. (OT, but Amin Elhassan is tweeting out coaching advice from Messina and D'Antoni right now and it's fantastic).

Just the 3pt line difference is huge in terms of how team defenses run. It's more ground to cover, more angles for you to slip passes through.

Not saying that Donovan's defense won't have the same tendencies. Just...let's be careful before we say that's exactly how things will run. Stevens is on record as saying he had to adjust his thinking on some things when he came to the NBA because he couldn't run them at the higher level.

EDIT: I know you mentioned in your earlier comment that he might have to change things up. Just reinforcing it in case people take this and run with it too far.

[Kizz Fastfists]

The defense will run off the same theory. Make your opponents take mid range jumpers. Keep them out of the paint and press them at the 3 point line. The goal is to force inefficient shots. The Spurs have done a good job of this over the years.

[slick_watts]

I'm not so thrilled they matched. Royce Young was interacting some on the DailyThunder comments section and mentioned that he believes Kanter will come off the bench. He added that "this isn't just a hunch". If that's the case, I feel a little bit better. But in either case, the Thunder are going to have to either find a way to improve Kanter's defensive impact or discover a way to cover for him.

One thing I hope they do is change their coverage on the PnR, which usually involves aggressive hedging by our big men. We should adopt a style like Tom Thibodeau has always used with the Bulls where you ICE the PnR. Coach Nick (I know..) has a good video on the basic principles:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te4svk4vm1I[/youtube]

Bulls have successfully fielded productive defenses with weak front court defensive players such as Carlos Boozer involved in the past. Russell Westbrook is going to have to be a lot more disciplined on his PnR defense -- and the team as a whole more communicative, if Kanter is going to be playing big minutes and our defense is to stay productive.

Another thing to do is control pace. Our pace was a bit out of control this year with Westbrook on the court.

It's an awkward position to be in having to pay this kind of money to Kanter and I guess Presti felt he could help the team. I hope he's right.

[slick_watts]

I checked BBall ref and looked at the Drtgs of all the players in games after Serge went down.

Does it matter much that Kanter had the 5th worst Drtg out of everyone else?

In order:

Dion(starter) - 116
Augustin - 114
Singler(starter) - 112
Morrow - 112


Kanter 110

Westbrook 108(this is without playing any defense what so ever; allowing transition pooints off volume TOs and allowing penetration while gambling all the time).

This changes drastically with KD, Roberson, and Ibaka in the lineup, along with Russ actually playing defense.

It's obvious that Donovan and Presti know about the defensive struggles last year and with Kanter. So expect them to work on it(especially with Donovan being a defensive 1st guy who drills defense into his players every practice).

Individual DRTG is kind of a weak indicator.

[slick_watts]

The defense will run off the same theory. Make your opponents take mid range jumpers. Keep them out of the paint and press them at the 3 point line. The goal is to force inefficient shots. The Spurs have done a good job of this over the years.

The Spurs have one of the best defensive players of all time.

[Marcus50]

Should come back a bit stronger. Been working with his sister and her coach in Switzerland it seems as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TJvKllc9Fk

[bondom34]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TJvKllc9Fk[/youtube]