2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[WarriorGM]

Double.

[WarriorGM]

The poll reset is just another gimmick used to argue what should be the plain as day truth that Curry should be the MVP.

"Curry is in a slump."

"Curry has been awful lately."

"So and so are ahead in all these advanced metrics."

But Curry still leads in raw plus-minus which should be recognized as the most basic most readily understandable and least adulterated measure of impact. If this is what a slumping Curry is then what was he when he wasn't slumping? You guys can create threads for how other players were robbed of awards but Curry is the player who would have the most legitimate gripe for multiple such awards being bizarrely given to someone else.

So, have a similar place for raw +/- in my MVP consideration, but wouldn't take it this far.

Last year Gobert was the one who would be MVP by this logic, and while I wouldn't call you crazy if you named him your MVP and I personally considered him quite seriously, I did end up siding with Jokic then, and frankly would probably side with Jokic again now.

Aside from all the general caveats about raw +/- being a very noisy measure of impact, I think the case becomes trickier when your team stops being the #1 seed. Well and good if you can say that your raw +/- lead means that you've led to more wins than everyone else, but that's not actually the case for Curry at this point. Gobert, despite playing in less games on a team that's won less games, has had a positive +/- more times than Curry.

Curry has his raw +/- then due to all the blowout wins he's had, which while they are impressive, they end up counting just the same as the close ones. And this leads me to a similar position with Curry to which I was last year:

When Curry and his team were grooving, I thought he was the most valuable player in the world...but they very clearly haven't done this all season in either season.

All this to say then that while I still consider Curry a very strong contender for my hypothetical MVP vote at the moment, the slump has certainly hurt his candidacy for me, and will keep hurting him if the Warriors keep falling back in the standings.

But as you say Gobert has played in less games and the Jazz have less wins. That would counter your argument that Curry's bigger wins aren't as impressive as Gobert's smaller ones. Having more of them overall counts in my book. The tendency you show also suggests that Curry has potentially greater impact in deciding games in much the same way that the tennis player who is hitting most of the winners and unforced errors is generally dictating the game.

[Ballerhogger]

Voted for Giannis hes been overall best player so far this year.

[Doctor MJ]

The poll reset is just another gimmick used to argue what should be the plain as day truth that Curry should be the MVP.

"Curry is in a slump."

"Curry has been awful lately."

"So and so are ahead in all these advanced metrics."

But Curry still leads in raw plus-minus which should be recognized as the most basic most readily understandable and least adulterated measure of impact. If this is what a slumping Curry is then what was he when he wasn't slumping? You guys can create threads for how other players were robbed of awards but Curry is the player who would have the most legitimate gripe for multiple such awards being bizarrely given to someone else.

So, have a similar place for raw +/- in my MVP consideration, but wouldn't take it this far.

Last year Gobert was the one who would be MVP by this logic, and while I wouldn't call you crazy if you named him your MVP and I personally considered him quite seriously, I did end up siding with Jokic then, and frankly would probably side with Jokic again now.

Aside from all the general caveats about raw +/- being a very noisy measure of impact, I think the case becomes trickier when your team stops being the #1 seed. Well and good if you can say that your raw +/- lead means that you've led to more wins than everyone else, but that's not actually the case for Curry at this point. Gobert, despite playing in less games on a team that's won less games, has had a positive +/- more times than Curry.

Curry has his raw +/- then due to all the blowout wins he's had, which while they are impressive, they end up counting just the same as the close ones. And this leads me to a similar position with Curry to which I was last year:

When Curry and his team were grooving, I thought he was the most valuable player in the world...but they very clearly haven't done this all season in either season.

All this to say then that while I still consider Curry a very strong contender for my hypothetical MVP vote at the moment, the slump has certainly hurt his candidacy for me, and will keep hurting him if the Warriors keep falling back in the standings.

But as you say Gobert has played in less games and the Jazz have less wins. That would counter your argument that Curry's bigger wins aren't as impressive as Gobert's smaller ones. Having more of them overall counts in my book. The tendency you show also suggests that Curry has potentially greater impact in deciding games in much the same way that the tennis player who is hitting most of the winners and unforced errors is generally dictating the game.

I think I wasn't clear before.

Here are Curry & Gobert's relative "personal records" where a positive +/- counts as a win, and everything else is a loss:

Curry 30-9
Gobert 31-7

Now, there remain arguments for Curry over Gobert to be sure - I personally would still rank Curry ahead of Gobert on my current list - but the idea that the Warriors have done more winning with Curry than the Jazz have with Gobert is highly debatable.

[kazyv]

Joker once again was +5 in a game they've lost by 20, with a 25/15/14 TD. It's so ridiculous how little help he gets from his teammates.

Worth noting again that 4 of the starters were +. Malone seems to have a vendetta against staggering minutes and Jokic spends essentially no time playing with the bench unit. And it’s a bench unit that could really, really use his help. I have no clue why he thinks this is the winning strat.

he spends plenty of time playing with bench unit players. they just happen to be starting for the nuggets. they are playing like 8 deep. who do you want him to play with? campazzo?

[WarriorGM]

So, have a similar place for raw +/- in my MVP consideration, but wouldn't take it this far.

Last year Gobert was the one who would be MVP by this logic, and while I wouldn't call you crazy if you named him your MVP and I personally considered him quite seriously, I did end up siding with Jokic then, and frankly would probably side with Jokic again now.

Aside from all the general caveats about raw +/- being a very noisy measure of impact, I think the case becomes trickier when your team stops being the #1 seed. Well and good if you can say that your raw +/- lead means that you've led to more wins than everyone else, but that's not actually the case for Curry at this point. Gobert, despite playing in less games on a team that's won less games, has had a positive +/- more times than Curry.

Curry has his raw +/- then due to all the blowout wins he's had, which while they are impressive, they end up counting just the same as the close ones. And this leads me to a similar position with Curry to which I was last year:

When Curry and his team were grooving, I thought he was the most valuable player in the world...but they very clearly haven't done this all season in either season.

All this to say then that while I still consider Curry a very strong contender for my hypothetical MVP vote at the moment, the slump has certainly hurt his candidacy for me, and will keep hurting him if the Warriors keep falling back in the standings.

But as you say Gobert has played in less games and the Jazz have less wins. That would counter your argument that Curry's bigger wins aren't as impressive as Gobert's smaller ones. Having more of them overall counts in my book. The tendency you show also suggests that Curry has potentially greater impact in deciding games in much the same way that the tennis player who is hitting most of the winners and unforced errors is generally dictating the game.

I think I wasn't clear before.

Here are Curry & Gobert's relative "personal records" where a positive +/- counts as a win, and everything else is a loss:

Curry 30-9
Gobert 31-7

Now, there remain arguments for Curry over Gobert to be sure - I personally would still rank Curry ahead of Gobert on my current list - but the idea that the Warriors have done more winning with Curry than the Jazz have with Gobert is highly debatable.

Interesting way to look at it, but to clarify that record you present is one based on positive and negative plus-minus and extrapolating them to wins and losses not the actual record which is

Warriors when Curry has played 30-9
Jazz when Gobert has played 28-10

Something to think about Curry is that even if he had minus minutes given the way he plays that may still affect opponents even when he isn't on. A defender's fatigue after chasing him around still lingers.

That still leaves Gobert looking far better relative to Curry than a closer look at the plus-minus numbers would show. One of the disadvantages with using raw plus-minus is the collinearity that develops with teammates. Sometimes it is difficult to ascertain the true drivers of the plus minutes when teammates play together. With the 2015 and 2016 Warriors Draymond and Klay were putting up large plus-minus as well but was that because they were almost equally significant contributors to it or because they were riding on Curry's coattail? Later years have more clearly shown that Curry is the driver of plus minutes on the Warriors.

Gobert is joined by 4 other Jazz teammates among the top plus-minus players before Draymond shows up as a Curry teammate 206 plus minutes behind Curry which is less than half of Curry's total. Gobert's teammates are likely driving a larger contribution to Gobert's plus minutes than Curry's teammates are to his.

[BoatsNZones]

Joker once again was +5 in a game they've lost by 20, with a 25/15/14 TD. It's so ridiculous how little help he gets from his teammates.

Worth noting again that 4 of the starters were +. Malone seems to have a vendetta against staggering minutes and Jokic spends essentially no time playing with the bench unit. And it’s a bench unit that could really, really use his help. I have no clue why he thinks this is the winning strat.

he spends plenty of time playing with bench unit players. they just happen to be starting for the nuggets. they are playing like 8 deep. who do you want him to play with? campazzo?

It’s just odd that the only starter he really staggers with the bench is Barton (it's pretty ridiculous to have 3 starters with a >10 +/- and be a .500 level team). Yes I’d have him playing more with Camp. But with Jokers minutes down with the injuries I do get it. He’s effectively throwing the season and prioritizing health.

[Kurtz]

MVP odds changed quite drastically once KD went down.

Giannis went from +600 to +325
Joker went from around +1200 to +600
Embiid from +4000 to +1200

Interestingly, Curry stayed put at +125.

[BelgradeNugget]

Joker once again was +5 in a game they've lost by 20, with a 25/15/14 TD. It's so ridiculous how little help he gets from his teammates.

I wouldn't agree that Joker is getting no help. He is getting all the help his team is able to provide right now. Problem is simple - Barton and Gordon should have been Nuggets 4th/5th options on offense and they could have been great in that role. They're forced to be 2nd/3th without Murray/MPJ, and they're not capable of being great in that roles. They're giving 110%, unfortunately not enough for Denver to win more games. Morris is one of the best backup PG's that is asked to replace Murray. Not possible. 35 yo Jeff Green is averaging 11.4 ppg on 55/41/83 as a starter, what else can we expect from him? Bones should have been in g-league developing, jet he is forced to be focal point of bench unit on offense, creating for himself and others. Nuggets are playing to the best of their abilities right now. A plan is simple - survive until cavaliers arrive (hope not too late).

[rzzzzz]

One new thing I’d argue for Embiid is that he not only is carrying the team on his back, but he’s started to encourage younger talent on the roster Jimmy Butler style. Maxey and Matisse seem to have responded to it. Plus he seems to have heard the criticism about pick and roll, and is now making strides developing that. All I want is for the big lug to be healthy for the playoffs.

[eyeatoma]

MVP odds changed quite drastically once KD went down.

Giannis went from +600 to +325
Joker went from around +1200 to +600
Embiid from +4000 to +1200

Interestingly, Curry stayed put at +125.

Very interesting!

Curry's odds will eventually fall if he continues to **** the bed and GS keeps losing. No Draymond is going to be tough.

[GSP]

Bucks 4-9 without Jrue now including that 40pt mutilation by the Heat in week 1

[Infinite Llamas]

Draymond the stealth Warriors MVP…
Jrue the stealth Bucks MVP??

[Jurassic_Park]

Embiid loss. Giannis loss. Does anyone want this mvp? If curry had anywhere near his normal numbers he would run away with it

[ahmetmekin]

Draymond the stealth Warriors MVP…
Jrue the stealth Bucks MVP??

Draymond's on/off is +3.4, Curry's +20.2 but Dray is somehow MVP. Sure.

[eyeatoma]

Embiid loss. Giannis loss. Does anyone want this mvp? If curry had anywhere near his normal numbers he would run away with it

Sixers also just beat the Heat, and Nets in recent weeks. They should have won this game, but it was the 3rd game in 4 days, and an afternoon game to boot. Philly also missing Thybulle and Green. They have had one of the best records in the league the last month and a half. If they start playing .500 ball you have a point, but the door is open for them to grab a top 2 seed.

[NirvanaFC]

Bucks have now lost 6 of 8. They won't be good enough for Giannis' MVP

[Statlanta]

Curry's gonna get an AI/D-Rose type MVP the way this season is going.

[hisairness]

Switched my vote from Giannis to Jokic. Jokic is doing way more with way less and now teams are almost even in losses.

[GSP]

Embiid loss. Giannis loss. Does anyone want this mvp? If curry had anywhere near his normal numbers he would run away with it

Jokic coming through the backdoor and going b2b w/o Murray or Mpj would be insanity