Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VIII

[Floater]

We were in a position where we couldn't screw this pick up, and we didn't. That might have happened with Noel. We guaranteed to have a player whose floor is a solid role player. He'll help this team for years and will make the Wizards an even more unselfish and efficient team.

Rice can be a nice backup SG option IF his shot is falling in training camp and preseason. If not, he'll be gone. I'm not sure about his defense but he seems like an upgrade over Temple.

I'd like to add another rebounder up front if we can find one for cheap/trade Singleton or Ves for. Still like to see Webster back. As for backup PG, I wouldn't spend too much money on that. Probably Price will fill that role again.

There are a few nice undrafted options but let's be honest, it's rare that they make an NBA team but that doesn't mean we shouldn't bring any into camp. I don't expect the Wizards to but it'll be nice to see them bring in Carmichael. There might have been some undrafted players that have already sign for all I know.

[Dark Faze]

I'd hate to lose Ariza. I think he's a big part of our defense. Would rather lose Webster any day of the week.

I wouldn't. Webster is a more reliable offensive player and he's a locker room leader. Ariza never seemed to totally buy in here, is a streaky shooter, and a shaky finisher that sometimes struggled to make open lay ups. He's a superior defender, but Porter and Webster are credible defenders and Porter has the ability to grow into an elite defender IMO.

I get the feeling Ariza would rather go back to the West Coast and compete for a starting job somewhere. Webster wants to be here and believes in what we're doing.

I think it would be best for both parties if we dealt Ariza out West soon. He gets his money from opting into his final year and he gets to play somewhere he wants and we clear out a temporary log jam and get something in return for it.

I wonder if the Lakers would be interested in some sort of deal for Pau Gasol?

Good post and I agree with all of that except the Gasol thing. Not sure how he helps us and he's going to want an extension. His salary is also so large that we'd have to move a lot of talent to get him.

I think Ariza for Williams straight up could work. Wolves are in win now mode and Ariza probably helps them more than D-Will in regards to that.

[Wizardspride]

I'd hate to lose Ariza. I think he's a big part of our defense. Would rather lose Webster any day of the week.

I wouldn't. Webster is a more reliable offensive player and he's a locker room leader. Ariza never seemed to totally buy in here, is a streaky shooter, and a shaky finisher that sometimes struggled to make open lay ups. He's a superior defender, but Porter and Webster are credible defenders and Porter has the ability to grow into an elite defender IMO.

I get the feeling Ariza would rather go back to the West Coast and compete for a starting job somewhere. Webster wants to be here and believes in what we're doing.

I think it would be best for both parties if we dealt Ariza out West soon. He gets his money from opting into his final year and he gets to play somewhere he wants and we clear out a temporary log jam and get something in return for it.

I wonder if the Lakers would be interested in some sort of deal for Pau Gasol?

What are you proposing?

[sfam]

I'd hate to lose Ariza. I think he's a big part of our defense. Would rather lose Webster any day of the week.

I wouldn't. Webster is a more reliable offensive player and he's a locker room leader. Ariza never seemed to totally buy in here, is a streaky shooter, and a shaky finisher that sometimes struggled to make open lay ups. He's a superior defender, but Porter and Webster are credible defenders and Porter has the ability to grow into an elite defender IMO.

I get the feeling Ariza would rather go back to the West Coast and compete for a starting job somewhere. Webster wants to be here and believes in what we're doing.

I think it would be best for both parties if we dealt Ariza out West soon. He gets his money from opting into his final year and he gets to play somewhere he wants and we clear out a temporary log jam and get something in return for it.

I wonder if the Lakers would be interested in some sort of deal for Pau Gasol?

I think Ariza takes a serious pay cut after this year, which is why he extended even though he wanted to play somewhere else. If we could trade Ariza out for a Pau Gasol, that would definitely be interesting. The problem of course would be Gasol's salary. The advantage would be Gasol might change the perception of FAs coming to Washington. Still though, I don't see us taking back that amount of salary. How would you see that work?

[sfam]

Good post and I agree with all of that except the Gasol thing. Not sure how he helps us and he's going to want an extension. His salary is also so large that we'd have to move a lot of talent to get him.

I think Ariza for Williams straight up could work. Wolves are in win now mode and Ariza probably helps them more than D-Will in regards to that.

I'd be for that trade, although I don't know that the Wolves think highly enough of Ariza to pull the trigger there.

[The Consiglieri]

This draft is a mess. It's like every lottery team but the Wizards and possibly the Cavs are trying to make the playoffs next season.

The wizards move was a pure short term move. The long term move would have been Noel. Instead they took the guy just about everybody said was the most ready to step in now and play, and E.G. wants to save his arse before he gets s canned four years after he should have been s canned. It was a pure, b.s., all about me, not about the franchise move. Even if you don't feel that incendiary, there's no denying the wizards move was 100% about making the playoffs next year.

This is just complete and total pants on the head nonsense. There was nobody on the board that was going to make a statistically relevant difference in our 2014 win total aside from maybe a few four year players like McCollum.

Trading the pick would have been the move that created the maximum short term impact.

Total and complete bollocks. Otto Porter was consistently referred to as the most NBA ready pick in this draft period. He was a blatantly obvious address need, and quick fix instantly move. Sure you could say trade, but we weren't talking about trade, and for the record, EG was supposedly 100% behind trading the pick before landing the pick, and supposedly still very interested in trading the pick until no offers worthy materialized. His targets were 1 a trade for a vet who could help now or 1b, the most NBA ready player available that doesn't play PG or SG.

Porter was the most NBA ready player available amongst any and every player ranked inside the top tier 1-6 (Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Len, Bennett), the only play close was Oladipo and he was nixed because he didn't want to come AND we just landed Beal last year.

You may love the pick, fine, but don't sell me on the idea that this pick was pure long term, building for the future, genius because it wasn't. The long shot, upside, 10 years down the road picks were Noel, Len and Bennett, they carried more risk, but also more long term upside.

EG didn't want to risk it for blatantly obvious reasons.

You love Porter, fine, but don't rewrite what he represents because you don't like my argument because my argument is spot on.

The only quibbles that can be made for it, and are reasonable are these:

1.) Noel injured his knee for a second time in the past couple of years, like in baseball, GM's are gun shy about drafting players that are injured, even moreso if the prospects are big men that have knee/feet injuries. Long term, an investment in a guy whose already injured now, and has repeatedly injured his knees in a short window of time in the past coulple of years is very worrisome.

That's a reasonable argument against picking him and for taking Porter and...

2.) At least one metrics analyst actually loves Porter and has him 1b to Noels 1A (Pelton), and believes he has a lot of upside based on his improved between early '12 and early '13, and his youth (only 19) and measurables. Other analysts think at worst, he'll become an above average to good 3.

That's another reasonable argument about Porter having some upside, and while not having Noel's Ceiling, may have a much more reasonable chance of both reaching it, and lifting his floor as well.

I can cede those arguments and would do so.

I'm not backing Earnie, however, on the idea that his moves were long term, they were anything but, they were immediate need/immediate quick fix, eschewing any and all trades for prospects, drafting the most NBA ready blue chipper, and probably one of, and maybe THE most NBA ready 2nd rounder.

Everything he's done in the last calendar year plus a week has been about short term rebuilding, not long term. It's just fortunate that these short term moves in the case of Beal/Porter/Rice JR, we're all much much much smarter than some of his past quick fix moves (AJ trade, '09 trade, the refusal to amnesty the right player, and destroy our cap trade for Okariza last year etc).

The right picks in my mind at slot were Noel, and Mitchell or Rice JR or Wolters, Porter's a fine runner up trophy, but it's also a move that guarantees this team will never win squat unless it uses the team design and Wall/Beal/Porter combo effectively to lure a primo free agent like the '14/'15 equivalent of LeBron/Howard etc.

And that in the end is my biggest indictment. FA big men and franchise players cost 20x as much on their contract for us to acquire as Noel, a potential franchise player, unlike Porter, whose relative positional, and personal FA value based on expectations and potential ceiling will be far less.

We'll see how it plays out.

My projection: we make the playoffs as a 5 or 6 seed next year barring serious injury to key players (something that was a lock no matter what we did in this draft as long as Webster came back and we stayed healthy), we either make a big time trade, or make a big time run at a mega free agent or RFA in '15/'16, and maybe in '14.

[rockymac52]

Ariza + Vesely + Seraphin + Singleton adds up to enough salary to trade for Gasol. We'd probably have to add in a draft pick, likely the 2014 1st. Assuming Dwight leaves, that might be enough, but the whole Kobe looming in the background thing could be an issue where htey don't want to give up their only other good player in Gasol.

[stevemcqueen1]

I liked Noel and had him #1 on my board the entire year. I never expected him to be there at our pick.

But when our pick came up and he was, I got a bad feeling about it. I can talk a big game about wanting to go BPA, but when it came time to pick, I just didn't feel good about him. "Wait a second, why the hell is he dropping?"

I probably wouldn't have taken Noel either had I been in Ernie's shoes. Knowing our history with injuries, our history of developing raw young bigs, picking Noel was just asking for trouble. Seeing that picture of his knee all jacked up. Seeing that his thighs were more skinny than his knees and his ankles more slender than my wrists was demoralizing.

Porter was our man. He has been the whole time. Even if Noel thrives in Philly we're in great shape with Porter because he's going to be good for us. I've got no regrets about passing on Noel.

[truwizfan4evr]

Ariza + Vesely + Seraphin + Singleton adds up to enough salary to trade for Gasol. We'd probably have to add in a draft pick, likely the 2014 1st. Assuming Dwight leaves, that might be enough, but the whole Kobe looming in the background thing could be an issue where htey don't want to give up their only other good player in Gasol.

Why you guys want Gasol? I would not give up a 2014 pick for this guy he's on the downside of his career now and has a massive contract ......No thanks!

[sfam]

The right picks in my mind at slot were Noel, and Mitchell or Rice JR or Wolters, Porter's a fine runner up trophy, but it's also a move that guarantees this team will never win squat unless it uses the team design and Wall/Beal/Porter combo effectively to lure a primo free agent like the '14/'15 equivalent of LeBron/Howard etc.

And that in the end is my biggest indictment. FA big men and franchise players cost 20x as much on their contract for us to acquire as Noel, a potential franchise player, unlike Porter, whose relative positional, and personal FA value based on expectations and potential ceiling will be far less.

We'll see how it plays out.

My projection: we make the playoffs as a 5 or 6 seed next year barring serious injury to key players (something that was a lock no matter what we did in this draft as long as Webster came back and we stayed healthy), we either make a big time trade, or make a big time run at a mega free agent or RFA in '15/'16, and maybe in '14.

This is exactly why I wanted Bennett or Noel. I don't think Porter gives us enough to become a contender, whereas one of those two "might" have. If there were serious concerns over Noel's knee though, I totally get passing on them. If instead though the reason was we just wanted to play it safe, than EG will deserve all the criticism he gets when Noel goes off on us and the rest of the league.

Its pretty rare that you get this high a pick when the rest of the team is already playoff quality. If Noel didn't have red flags on his knee, we should have picked him. But if Phoenix really did vote "No" for reasons of knee concerns, I'm totally fine with the Porter pick. But we still do need another impact player in order to contend. Now it will have to come via FA, unless anyone here believes EG can find that player in the middle of the draft.

[sfam]

Ariza + Vesely + Seraphin + Singleton adds up to enough salary to trade for Gasol. We'd probably have to add in a draft pick, likely the 2014 1st. Assuming Dwight leaves, that might be enough, but the whole Kobe looming in the background thing could be an issue where htey don't want to give up their only other good player in Gasol.

Why you guys want Gasol? I would not give up a 2014 pick for this guy he's on the downside of his career now and has a massive contract ......No thanks!

absolutely NO THANKS on giving up the 2014 pick for Gasol.

[rockymac52]

Consiglieri, I completely disagree with you.

You are right that Porter and Rice are widely regarded as two of the most NBA-ready prospects in this year's draft class. However, that doesn't mean we are in win-now mode just because we drafted them.

All other things equal, would you rather draft a player that will be a positive contributor from day one as a rookie or a player who won't be ready to contribute for a few years? The choice is obvious.

You are confusing NBA-ready with overall potential. A lot of people fall into this trap. They assume that the players who are NBA-ready are the guys who have lower ceilings as well. Sometimes that may be the case, but it's not always the truth. I have read some scouting reports that labeled Porter as having a lower ceiling, but I don't think they're correct at all. He can absolutely develop into a very very good player. He was the Big East Player of the Year for a good reason. He is a hell of a basketball player, and he's already shown incredible improvement in college. Why should we assume that he's not going to continue to improve just because he already improved once? That's completely counter-intuitive.

You are also making the false assumption that the players who are raw projects, who are also perceived as having very very high ceilings, are definitely going to reach their full potential. That couldn't be more incorrect. If you're a top 5 pick in any draft, and you are so raw and undeveloped that you aren't ready to contribute much at all your rookie year, then no matter how much potential you have, the reality is that there's a very decent chance that you never improve significantly. But an NBA-ready player has the floor of where he's already at, which is a contributing player. So worst case scenario, you're still getting something of value. And the NBA-ready player still can have more room to grow.

Porter is a fantastic fit on this team, both short-term and long-term. If it was a short-term pick, we wouldn't be drafting a SF, let alone 2 SFs, because we already have Ariza and most likely Webster. We would have tried to address one of our other bigger needs. We expect Porter to be here for the next decade. He is absolutely a long-term investment. He is now the 3rd member of our true core. The fact that he's good enough to help us win some games as a rookie should not be held against him, that's beyond ridiculous.

Quit hatin'.

[MDStar]

So here's my take and my opinion, which means basically nothing. I absolutely love this draft. It shows a commitment to structured basketball, acquiring not only talent but skill. It shows that the team has not completely given up on Vesely and/or Seraphin, which I’m okay with for one more year. We have a foundation of good to great young wing players, with Wall (our version of a superstar), Beal (2nd fiddle, offensive sharpshooter) and now Porter (2 way all-around wing, with size and maturity). Now I know that Vesely and Seraphin have both fallen out of favor with many of us, me included, but selecting a PF or Center, would effectively have spelled the end of those investments. However, with Nene and Okafor still on the roster, it wasn't a decision that we had to make just yet.

Overall, by selecting Porter, we balance out our roster with young players throughout the positions.

PG -Wall
SG - Beal
SF - Porter
PF - Vesely
C - Seraphin

The latter two get an opportunity to see if they can actually improve, while backing up two established starters. If they don’t show up, then we move on and select a big man next year in the 1st round. If they do, then we already have someone ready to step in and take a starting spot. This plan allows for further development, while not sacrificing the success of the team, which should be playoff caliber.

On a scale of 0-10 (10 being Lebron/Durant) of being a great player in the NBA, Porter has a range of 5-8. No chance of him being a superstar but at worst he's a average starter who does his job. Now for Noel or Len, i got their range being a 3-9. They could be all-star centers but they could be the next Pauchillia (reserve), Bogut (potential but injury prone), or even Thabeet (colossal bust). Just so much uncertainty with them and in my opinion not worth the risk in a time where we are trying to elevate out of the doldrums of the league and into respectability and title contending.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'd hate to lose Ariza. I think he's a big part of our defense. Would rather lose Webster any day of the week.

I wouldn't. Webster is a more reliable offensive player and he's a locker room leader. Ariza never seemed to totally buy in here, is a streaky shooter, and a shaky finisher that sometimes struggled to make open lay ups. He's a superior defender, but Porter and Webster are credible defenders and Porter has the ability to grow into an elite defender IMO.

I get the feeling Ariza would rather go back to the West Coast and compete for a starting job somewhere. Webster wants to be here and believes in what we're doing.

I think it would be best for both parties if we dealt Ariza out West soon. He gets his money from opting into his final year and he gets to play somewhere he wants and we clear out a temporary log jam and get something in return for it.

I wonder if the Lakers would be interested in some sort of deal for Pau Gasol?

I think Ariza takes a serious pay cut after this year, which is why he extended even though he wanted to play somewhere else. If we could trade Ariza out for a Pau Gasol, that would definitely be interesting. The problem of course would be Gasol's salary. The advantage would be Gasol might change the perception of FAs coming to Washington. Still though, I don't see us taking back that amount of salary. How would you see that work?

I think you would have to build a deal around either Nene or Okafor in order to get the salaries to work.

If it's Okafor and Ariza, I don't see a ton of incentive in that for LA since they're just swapping one expiring deal for two expritings of cumulatively similar value. Maybe they just want to dump Gasol, but they'd probably be able to find better return value. So we'd probably have to throw in draft picks or a young player. I'd be willing to include either, but since Gasol is an expiring, and he is coming off his worst season in the NBA, I wouldn't give up anything significant.

Nene is a more interesting scenario. On the one hand, we'd be taking a huge risk going to an old front court that's expiring. We could go from having two solid vet big men to no solid vet big men next year. On the other hand, LA would be taking on a big risk from acquiring a multi year 13 million dollar salary commitment.

If they keep Dwight, then that doesn't seem like a huge issue. I think Nene would pair very well with Dwight. But if they lose Dwight, not sure what they'll do. They'll probably want maximum flexibility.

The potential rewards would be good. We could take a chance on a bounce back year from Gasol and have a TON of cap space going into 2014. Maybe can entice a good FA here for once. Maybe max out DeMarcus Cousins and force SAC to match, which they might not want to do. Or maybe we keep it low key and bring back Oak and Gasol at reduced cost? We'd have a lot of options.

[The Consiglieri]

Cleveland has a lot of work to do, but I like their roster better than any other non playoff team in the East save ours. They're going to be a big rival once each of our respective cores mature. Philly could be good in a few years if their gambles pay off but they are a long ways away. And Charlotte is slowly, painstakingly turning themselves around. Indiana's ceiling was this year's finals appearance, their guards blow and they don't have the money or draft picks to get better here. Chicago is a beatable contender. Boston, Atlanta, and Milwaukee are done for. Toronto is a mess. Orlando still has a long way to go right now. Miami as we know it today has an expiration date. The Knicks and Nets are screwed--inflexible and not good enough to contend. Detroit's roster is a mess.

The East is a one to two team conference and it should be pretty open for the next few years. I think Cleveland and Washington fill the void sooner than later.

If Cleveland had taken Valunciunas instead of Thompson (as I said at the time), I would have regarded their foundation as the best in the east in terms of youth movements by a wide margin, as is, it's still better than ours, and they have plenty of booty for the amazing '14 draft as well. They will be in better position than us, and already have a better long term roster.

I disagree. I think Wall is better than Irving, Beal is better than Waiters, and Porter is at least as good as Bennett, if not better. We don't have a Tristan Thompson long term. But in the short term, Nene is better than him. And he's a true seven footer.

Cleveland is going to have size issues as currently constructed. Both Bennett and Thompson are a tad short for the 4 and 5 and Irving and Waiters is a smallish back court. They're very athletic, but they'll have defensive problems most likely. They need a big bodied 7 footer long term.

Let's forget what we think, and go with what the scouts think:

Irving > Wall

Scouts like Irving better, pretty much everyone except some Wiz fans. You and I think Wall has a higher ceiling because he's pass first, but Irving is definitely better right now.

Waiters < Beal

Beal is better right now, but it's fairly close.

Karasev =< Porter

Scouts like Porter better but not by as much as you may think, there was and is a ton of love for Karasev, and a view that Karasev has more long term upside in some circles. Being reasonable though, Porter deserves the slight nod.

Thompson/Bennett > Nene/Booker/Vesely

Thompson/Bennett easily trump the foundation pieces we have at 4, and probably in the short term as well considering Nene's health and wish to retire during this past season.

Speights/Zeller/Varajeo >Seraphin/Okafor expiring

Speights and Varajeo aren't probably long for the Cavs, neither is Okafor long for the Wiz, and so in a Zeller Seraphin match up I go w/the higher rated prospect in Zeller, even though neither are foundation pieces.

+ the Cavs have '14 Kings first rounder (top 12 protected), '14 Heat's first rounder (top 10 protected), Magic's '14 2nd rounder (likely top 35), and Grizz 2nd rounder (likely 50th-60th).

So essentially Cleveland has at worst, 2 first rounders, and 3 second rounders in the best draft in at least a decade next year, and if the Kings can put together a reasonable season (38 wins), 3 first rounders.

Cleveland has a slight nod in the here and now in terms of foundation pieces, and a huge advantage in the long term considering the bushel of draft picks they've acquired over the past few years.

Cleveland will likely be consistently ahead of us going forward like they were a decade ago barring our ability to lure a top 5-10 player in the league FA in '14, '15 or '16. The one advantage we have on Cleveland is that it's Cleveland, especially if the LeBron pipe dream doesn't play out for Cleveland. Cleveland, like Milwaukee, isn't anyones FA destination. While Washington is basically a hazardous waste dump in terms of FA targeted real estate/history for NBA players deciding where to go, Golden State and the Clippers have shown us just how quickly a market can become attractive to FA's and that is our trump card on Cleveland. D.C. is a great city, obviously not L.A. or my home town the bay area, but its still a great, top 5-10 non NBA related city in the country, and if we experienced an exciting player based renaissance like that undergone w/the clippers in spite of their racist scum bag owner, or the warriors in spite of their past 20 years of miserable failure ('06 and '13 exempted), whose history is eerily similar to our own (last legit contenders in the late seventies, 1 period in the past 30 years in which they were consistently good (Warriors about '89-'94, Wizards, '96-'98, and '05-'08)), and w/their new arena, new ownership, and youth movement, have become the 2nd most exciting team in the west ahead of the clippers. Well, there's no reason we can't do the same, parlaying D.C. passion, the great city, and the foundation with Wall/Beal/Porter/vet-Nene which is a Spurs-esque cohesive identity/mentality team based on high BBIQ, self-lessness, defense and personal chemistry.

That's our 1 trump card on Cleveland. The combo of our players and city will be far more attractive to move to then a dump like Cleveland. Without drawing that FA though, Cleveland will hold the advantage going forward for the next decade unless we somehow pulled a franchise player out of the 15-25 slot (it has happened before, just rarely, especially amongst big men).

[Dark Faze]

What do you guys think about Okafor and a 2014 1st (top 3 protected) for Cousins at the deadline?

I'm not a Cousins supporter by any means but its definitely intriguing.

[The Consiglieri]

Very hard to pass on the potential Noel has shown, but I'm happy w/ the pick of Porter who is likely to be a good player for a dozen years (barring injury) and maybe better than "good."

The only other question about the pick is whether taking Noel and then trading down w/ him would have been better. OTOH I'm not a big Jrue Holiday fan (and think he's overpaid too), so that's not the path I'd have taken.

I don't know why I should think Rice is a better prospect than Wolters; Ernie has no interest in late round 2 guys and didn't want 3 rookies, so in his mind he didn't give anything up to get the guy he preferred. But, in fact he gave up Arselan Kazemi, the best rebounding PF in the NCAA last year (and a 60% shooter too). Lets see whether he makes the league.

The undrafted guy I'd most like to see on our SL team and in camp is D.J. Stephens.

Not a disastrous draft like 2011. Not a demonstration of great GM skills either.

Rice has NBA skills, length, and athleticism, not sure if Wolters has those qualities for his position, and has proven to be up to the task at a higher level of competition as well. I think they're near dead even prospects but I do think Rice JR has a clear advantage, and has a much lower chance of being a flat out bust in the NBA.

[The Consiglieri]

3. Noel dropped, but dropped past PHX which as far as I'm concerned means I have fewer qualms about missing him. Detroit and Pheonix have the best medical/training staff in the league, if either or both think he's a risk for future problems then I'm happy our staff is not given this problem to examine. Our injury record is the bar none worst in the league over the past 10 years as far as games lost to injury. My conscience wouldn't wish the questionable Wiz medical team on that poor kid.

This is a great point, and perhaps the reason he fell. If everyone heard that Phoenix redflagged the knee, teams like the Wizards would probably have stayed away. In this case, perhaps it made sense to take the Battier type, especially because he fits in to what we're doing. I'm disapointed that Bennett was off the board, but hey, such is life.

I honestly doubt it has anything to do with phoenix red flagging anything, and everything to do with simply using a top draft pick on a player currently injured, and even worse, a player whose already had two serious knee injuries before he even turned 20. Remember Adrian Peterson dropped from #1 overall to out of the top 7 entirely in the '07 NFL draft because of a mildly bothersome knee problem, in baseball, any injury automatically drops a players value substantially, Anthony Rendon was rated #1 in terms of the '11 MLB draft, then had ankle and shoulder issues and dropped to the Nats at 6. He's now raking, doing everything he'd done to earn the 1st overall tag in the winter of '10-'11 and may be a franchise piece for the Nats, stolen from the rest of the league, and in general in baseball, anybody injured drops to basically half their prospect value, particularly pitchers.

You simply don't want to use these kinds of assets on players with serious injuries ever, because if it happens once, it dramatically ups the chance of repeated injury in the future, an issue that a player like Porter with a clean history did not have. Not sure why the same wasn't true of Bennett whose also had repeated injuries.

In the end I think Noel fell because he was injured like Bennett, but much worse than Bennett, he was a big man, with repeated leg injuries, which is a massive red flag when it comes to men so dependent on their legs (nearly 15 years ago one of the highest rated OL's in the draft was in our sites, I think it was '99 or thereabouts, the guy was massive, about 350 or 360, and at the time, I argued that a LT with that kind of weight would have chronic health issues, and unreliable knees, it was way way too risky, we passed, ended up with Bailey if memory serves, and Detroit took him after other teams passed-said player ended up having chronic knee and leg issues).

Phoenix liking or not liking the guy probably didn't matter at all nearly so much as the simple track record, which as an apoplectic Noel booster when he was available, I can totally own.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Consig, you still haven't come clean on this embarrassing tin-foil hat rant and addressed my reply below.

The wizards move was a pure short term move. The long term move would have been Noel. Instead they took the guy just about everybody said was the most ready to step in now and play, and E.G. wants to save his arse before he gets s canned four years after he should have been s canned. It was a pure, b.s., all about me, not about the franchise move. Even if you don't feel that incendiary, there's no denying the wizards move was 100% about making the playoffs next year.

The position you put forward is by far the most unreasonable interpretation of what we did with the third pick on this board.

I'm calling you on it again as it really bothers me. The bolded text is spectacularly off base and unfair in addition to being obnoxiously vitriolic. You either need to find some way to defend that position - good luck there - or admit that you were wrong about the decision making within the Wizards. A less biased observer would conclude that the front office did in fact make a long term pick; maybe not for the guy that many wanted, but a long term pick nonetheless.

You make many good points in assorted posts, but your position as a draftnik first and basketball fan second gets you into trouble sometimes as you evaluate absolutely everything through the lens of the draft. This is one of those times.

Total and complete bollocks. Otto Porter was consistently referred to as the most NBA ready pick in this draft period. He was a blatantly obvious address need, and quick fix instantly move. Sure you could say trade, but we weren't talking about trade, and for the record, EG was supposedly 100% behind trading the pick before landing the pick, and supposedly still very interested in trading the pick until no offers worthy materialized. His targets were 1 a trade for a vet who could help now or 1b, the most NBA ready player available that doesn't play PG or SG.

Porter was the most NBA ready player available amongst any and every player ranked inside the top tier 1-6 (Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Len, Bennett), the only play close was Oladipo and he was nixed because he didn't want to come AND we just landed Beal last year.

None of this follows as you're ignoring the idea that Porter is not a purely additive component and will instead be playing in lieu of well established and effective veteran small forwards. He's not a win now player based on how he compares to the other prospects, he's a win now player (or not) based on how he compares to our incumbents at his position.

82 games positional rankings had us 11th in entire NBA at small forward last season, actually being our strongest position over the complete season statistically. If Porter went to Cleveland with the 26th ranked SF rotation and displaced some from amongst Gee, Miles, Casspi and Walton, OK, he brings a win now element, but you're entirely ignoring the contextual aspect of what a rookie small forward means to a team that's established at his slot.

The idea that a 20 year old rookie is going to come in and steal minutes from a 28 year old Trevor Ariza with this even being a break even exchange is highly questionable. If Ernie needed to win a game tomorrow, I'm about 99% sure he'd go with Ariza or Webster, so I don't see how you're interpretation of the FO's thinking holds up.

Most of the people disappointed with Porter are arguing from a 180 degree contrary position from what you're saying; their opinion is that "Porter doesn't bring enough in the long term or the short term". That is a defensible critique of the pick, but I believe you're pretty well the lone outlier with the view that this offers a substantive short term spike in overall on-court competitiveness with this being the deciding factor in the selection.

Another statement I have a big problem with that feeds into the above is this:

The problem is that if the scouts are right about what will happen with these guys, than Noel will develop into a defensive powerhouse, at worst a Mutombo.....

The problem here really speaks for itself and would best be answered with a one of those snappy "not sure if serious" gifs that the kids fancy these days. "The Scouts" were talking about Noel as Marcus Camby or Theo Ratliff, not Mutombo, who was probably the best defensive player I ever saw. If Noel turns into "at worst a Mutombo", nobody will be more surprised than than "The Scouts".

This skewed evaluation feeds into the first argument as you've created a narrative of wildly diverging upsides that fuels the below the belt, tin-foil hat criticism offered in that first post.

[The Consiglieri]

I don't think its that, I think the team views him as a 2/3.

I suspect they envision, if they can pull it off:

PG: Wall, random scrub off the scrap heap
SG: Beal, Rice Jr
SF: Webster, Porter, Ariza, Rice Jr

and a year from now, Webster, Porter, Rice Jr.

I think the thought is that PG/SG/SF will be manned by Wall, Beal, Porter, Webster, Rice Jr and a mystery guy or two by winter '14-'15.

I think Satoransky comes over now. But if I'm Webster, I'm asking my agent to find me a place where I have a chance at starting. I don't see if with Porter and Ariza, and then no backup minutes at the 2 guard, assuming Rice gets some play.

Rice isn't going to displace Webster. He's a long shot to make the team and would have the least secure position of anyone.

Personally, I would prefer to deal Ariza and roll with Webster, Beal, and Porter as my primary wings. I'd probably go with Temple in that two guard rotation somewhere because he can also play PG. Price as the primary back up PG for now. Don't know if Sato is ready to handle that role, and if he's not, I would leave him in Europe probably. GRJR would be an end of the bench type guy early in his career and earn his way onto the court in time. Or if Porter or Webster get hurt, then he's got a decent opportunity to earn minutes early in his career.

I like that our roster finally has enough quality players that playing time will be earned. Like a real team. Getting on the court won't be on the job training any more.

I hope Porter earn's the starting SF job right away though. Like Beal did. Webster is fine coming off the bench as the 6th man and would be our second line leader and shooter.

The situation at PF and C is harder to figure out. I'd guess Booker and Seraphin are the primary backups. Singleton and Vesely aren't going to get any burn. Seems like it's time to move one or both.

I think our top priority from here on out is to find a long term starting C, or, failing that, a PF that can shoot. Nene is going to move into a diminished minutes role sooner than later I bet. Who knows what Okafor is planning? Is he even picking up his option next season? Booker and Porter getting a ton of minutes at PF is a risk. Seraphin getting a ton of minutes at C makes me uncomfortable.

Everything would be so much easier for us if the lightbulb turns on for Vesely and he comes back from this summer 250 pounds and swole and confident and becomes a rim protecting, floor running 5 like Serge Ibaka.

As that has a 2% chance of happening, I think you have to try and figure out how to cobble assets like Ariza into a trade package for a credible C. Maybe someone out there is desperate to dump good players for 2014 draft positioning?

Rice is not a long shot to make the team. I see your reasoning, as that tag line would be true 7 or 8 times out of 10 in year 1 with a 2nd rounder, but Rice JR had a 20th-35th overall grade, and is an unusual 2nd rounder in terms of his combo of athleticism and skill. The guy is a virtual lock to land the gig as Beal's back up, and to be in the running to get some minutes at SF when necessary. He's already got a year of pro ball under him, and flashed a ton of talent, especially on the offensive end, where he was an excellent jump shooter, and catch and shoot option, and an outstanding rebounder for a swing man who splits time between the 2 and the 3. His only liabilities are not surprisingly, over reliance on athleticism, and work rate/BBIQ on the defensive side where he shows Bennett-lite issues.

I would put him as a 90% lock to make the team, maybe 95%, and Id put him as a 75-85% chance at landing a second contract as a starter, or first Swing man off the bench with us or someone else.

The team is a lock going forward to be:

3: Porter/Ariza/Rice JR
2. Beal/Rice Jr
PG: Wall and ?

If Webster comes back, Ariza will either be dealt now, or at the deadline in the winter. Rice JR is going to slot in basically as the 2nd option at the 2, and third option semi long term at the 3, or second option if we can't bring back Webster.

Rice JR is basically a foundation piece/foundation rotational reserve/trade piece

He's not remotely a long shot to make the team/have value. That's precisely why I LOVED the pick/trade.