Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VI

[The Consiglieri]

What about Grant Hill as a comparison for Porter?

An off-brand Grant HIll yes.

Before injuries, coming out of Duke, Grant was not only smooth with a mature game (as is Otto Porter) but had above-the-rim athleticism. No way Otto would average ~20ppg as a rookie no matter what team drafted him.

If Grant wasn't kneecapped with injuries then he'd have been a HOF player. Even if he came out as a soph not senior. I don't see Ottomatic as putting up 20/8rb/6ast his first 5 years in the league.

But same mentality and cool demeanor and court awareness and team focus, yes.

I think people forget just how good he was in his prime. This is a guy who would have gone top 2-3 in the Webber draft, in the LeBron Draft etc. This guy is a lock for top 3 pre-injury in virtually any historical draft. If not for the injuries, he would have had a real chance at the Hall.

Porter is nowhere near that. In a deep, elite draft, he's almost certainly not going top 6-8. He'd probably have gone somewhere between 7-12 in most good to great drafts down though the years, in solid-above average drafts, he would have been a classic, 6-9 guy, in a subpar probably 4-6, in a crapper like this one, he's top 3.

I'm happy as hell we jumped from the dregs of the third tier in this draft at #8, to getting a legit starter with upside at #3. I'm happy as hell about that. I'm just not gonna puff up what's available here. Let's remember, Noel is basically a classic top of the draft big man, but with a lot of holes (offensive game and injury history), Porter is a jack of all trades, master of almost none classic solid pick, lacking the upside to be a great pick, Bennett is a great weapon with a horrible injury history and D being liabilities. This isn't a great draft in any sense save it's depth (which is above average to good in my view), the top tier in this draft other than Noel, wouldn't sniff top 3 in any other draft taking into account their liabilities. The second tier would have gone post top 10 in most drafts (and that includes basically everybody after Oladipo) of any degree of quality.

While I'm bummed we blew the draft entirely in '09 and '11, and only were in range once to get a primary franchise player, I am happy beyond all get out, that we somehow managed to really pull together a great 2/3's of the season, and still land a pick high enough to get a piece that probably will either be a solid starter at worst (Porter Bennett), a franchise player in time if healthy (Noel), or a potential franchise player if everything went right and all the boxes were checked over time (Bennett, and Len). At 8 it looked like we were basically going to be looking at trading away the pick for trash that could have been signed as a free agent, or simply taking a rotational piece that fell to us but would never be a legit franchise building weapon. Now we can look forward to this team, if it makes the right pick and/or the pick develops well, attracting legit interest from free agents by '14-'16 which is the only way we will be building a great team.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

[b]4.Have a great existing infrastructure in the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili trio that forces those picks to fit into a

Easier said than done.

[Ruzious]

Agreed on Hill, Consig. He was one of the special players of the era.

Back to Len - If Noel falls because of his injury, wouldn't it follow that Len falls due to his injury? Btw, Noel is meeting with the Wiz on Saturday. Like nate said, if they pass on Noel, there will be heck to pay.

[The Consiglieri]

No...
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

Len is #1.

Bennett is #6. Porter is 7.

Wow. So a 7 footer who converts 38% of his post ups and 36% of his jumpers, as well as showing a lack of effort/focus on both ends (not to mention having a foot injury) is the top prospect?

Not exactly an endorsement of this draft.

Nope, but that's not why he's #1 obviously. Teams are looking at Len, and evaluating him based on what they think they can make of him, not on what Maryland made of him. I've been listening/reading to every kernel of anything I can come across, and one thing repeatedly references has been that if Len hadn't gotten injured, and could have worked out, many scouts/GM's have said he had a real strong way of working himself up to #1. Cleveland having him in their top 3 just confirms it. I think he's probably somewhere between 1 and 4 on our board. I'm just not sure where.

[fishercob]

YODA is an attempt at being objective. When I've read scouting report assessments of athleticism, I've primarily been struck by how often it clashes with my own observations, as well as with objective tests like the combine. In previous threads, I've pointed out the "Michael Beasley is an elite athlete with an NBA-ready body" vs. the "Kevin Love is slow and ground-bound and will suffer in the NBA because of his lack of athleticism" stuff. In reality, they were both very productive in college, and they tested/measured out nearly identical in the combine.

So, where I don't have the combine data or an objective measure of athleticism, I default to zero -- no penalty, no bonus.

If I adjust Len to what folks are saying about him -- above average length, agility and leaping ability, average strength -- he would rise to a mid-first round pick rating.

I would be interested to see Len's YODA scores based on several hypothetical athletic measurements.

Where would he rank with standing reach, X, bench press Y, and lane agility Z? Where would he rank with reach 1, press 2, and agility 3? In what scenarios, if any, is Len worth a top 10 pick? In what scenarios is he not worth a first round pick at all?

[Ruzious]

No...
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

Len is #1.

Bennett is #6. Porter is 7.

Wow. So a 7 footer who converts 38% of his post ups and 36% of his jumpers, as well as showing a lack of effort/focus on both ends (not to mention having a foot injury) is the top prospect?

Not exactly an endorsement of this draft.

Nope, but that's not why he's #1 obviously. Teams are looking at Len, and evaluating him based on what they think they can make of him, not on what Maryland made of him. I've been listening/reading to every kernel of anything I can come across, and one thing repeatedly references has been that if Len hadn't gotten injured, and could have worked out, many scouts/GM's have said he had a real strong way of working himself up to #1. Cleveland having him in their top 3 just confirms it. I think he's probably somewhere between 1 and 4 on our board. I'm just not sure where.

That's what his agent said. Since then, people have run with that quote. I don't believe it in the slightest, and YODA is very wise to not factor that in.

[Dat2U]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now... (fixed... Bennett is top of TIER FOUR)

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Bennett, Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (7)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

[DCZards]

I don't have a problem with the fact that YODA does not factor in Len's physical numbers. However, it's Len's exceptional athleticism for a big man--which is pretty obvious if you've watched him play--and not his scoring or other stats that makes him so appealing. He's easily a top 8 pick, imo, assuming the injury is not a long-term issue.

[tontoz]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now...

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (7)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

So is Bennett Tier 7?

[DCZards]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now...

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (7)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

No Bennett, DAT? The kid has to be at least a Tier Four talent.

BTW, I think you're dead wrong about McLemore. He's Tier Two, easily. You're right when you say that McLemore's handle is suspect. But he's young and I think his handle will improve significantly as well as his ability to get to the basket. Otherwise, Ben has all the physical tools, as well as a great shooting touch, to be one of the top 4 or 5 SGs in the NBA someday.

[dobrojim]

I don't see why not, Hes a local product and hes got skills. I would take him and figure it out later, because he has trade value not matter what.

But isn't that what Minny did with DWill? They already had Love, but took him anyway and tried to figure it out. It hasn't worked and they aren't going to get "#2 overall pick" value back for him if they trade him now. So I'm not sure we can assume that the trade value will always be there.

If the Wolves could go back in time and instead get McGee+6 from the Wizards, would they? Even if they had to kick in something else of value from their end to get the deal to go through? I think they would. McGee and and a guy like Kawhi Leonard would look a lot better on their roster than DWill does right now (and I'm not even a McGee fan LOL). I'm not saying they'd be contenders, but it's more than they'll get for DWill in any trade going forward.

IMO this team has enough clear needs that going BPA at a position we've already got filled and hoping we figure it out isn't the way to go. If we were a team with 5 legit starters and we just lucked into a top pick because of injuries, sure I'd take BPA to be our 6th man. But this team still needs as many as 3 longterm solutions in the starting lineup, so I'd prefer to explore ways to leverage the pick to get one of those spots filled.

I think that's more because he hasn't played up to the value of a #2 pick.
Pretty simple.

Dipo has the potential to be the best player in the draft. McLemore might as well.

[Dat2U]

Saw a wonderfully put, spot by spot examination of how to build a team right (the spurs) and how to build a team wrong (the wizards) over on bulletsforever.com (amusingly sourced from realgm) :

link:

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/6/11 ... g-nba-2013

"...Going to take these two questions together. Jonathan Tjarks has two really good pieces (here's the second) about this subject on Real GM. Basically: the Spurs:
1.Don't waste picks -- everyone is selected for a purpose.
2.Constantly sift through the so-called "scrap heap" for contributors. No selling of late second-round picks to meet an operating budget. Constant monitoring of the D-League and Europe for undervalued players, rather than stopping their research at guys already in the league.
3.Identify certain kinds of players that they can mold into their style of play.
4.Have a great existing infrastructure in the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili trio that forces those picks to fit into a role while simultaneously giving them a great chance to learn from true pros.
5.Aren't afraid to play youngsters to see how they function. The point Tjarks makes about Gregg Popovich not forcing his GM to acquire a veteran backup point guard when George Hill was struggling as a rookie really hit close to home. The Wizards' youngsters, unless they are Wall or Beal, rarely receive that kind of trust.

The bottom line is the Spurs appear to treat each and every one of their draft picks as assets rather than liabilities through every step of the process. You would never hear the Spurs' GM and coach suggest that they don't want to use all their draft picks, for example..."

1. Mike Miller/Randy Foye anyone. Drafting Jan Vesely. Two disasterous moves in three years.
2. Ernie likes to recycle the talent he's familar with like Cartier Martin, Shelvin Mack, Shaun Livingston. Seems to be a bit lazy in this regard.
3. Vesely & Booker were drafted to run with Wall (whatever that means). Wizards obviously didn't priortize putting shooters with Wall (duh!) for the first 3 years.
4. Well we had the infastructure of Blatche, McGee & young for a few years, that's gotta count for something right?
5. Wizards idea of playing development is drafting a bunch of guys to play the same position and let them fight it out. Also refusing to send them to the D League.

For the Wizards all players are untradeable assets to be overvalued until they become liabilities, at which point the Wizards will undermine their presence, leak out negative stuff to the press and then inevitably dump them regardless of cost or ROI.

[Dat2U]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now...

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Bennett, Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (8)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

No Bennett, DAT? The kid has to be at least a Tier Four talent.

BTW, I think you're dead wrong about McLemore. He's Tier Two, easily. You're right when you say that McLemore's handle is suspect. But he's young and I think his handle will improve significantly as well as his ability to get to the basket. Otherwise, Ben has all the physical tools, as well as a great shooting touch, to be one of the top 4 or 5 SGs in the NBA someday.

Oops, I knew something was off I accidently deleted his name. Tier Four. Top of Tier 4 infact.


And improving your handle at 20 when it's so rudimentary at this stage IS NOT GIVEN. Everyone treats this like a given but it's not. He could improve it, but only slightly or his improvement may not be very noticable at all. He's got a long way to go before he could ever reliably create shots off the dribble.

[Nivek]

So, I caught a minor error in the Alex Len line, which when corrected...moves him down a bit into 2nd round territory. Specifically, I hadn't accounted for the foot injury, which is a small negative in YODA.

So, to Fisher's question...

If I assume Len measured out at above-average length (above 9-4 standing reach), above-average combined agility and sprint (15.20 or faster), above-average bench press (13+ reps), and above-average vertical (63 inches combined standing and max), Len would rate right at the bottom of the top 10 in virtual tie with Trey Burke and Kelly Olynyk.

What's realistic? On length, prospects with similar height and wingspan (Len's height is reported as 7-1 and his measured wingspan is 7-3.5) tend not to measure above 9-5 in standing reach. Shaq, for example, was also 7-1 (although that was in socks, according to DX), but had a 7-7 wingspan. His standing reach was 9-5 exactly. So, despite good size, he probably wouldn't get a size bonus in YODA.

His agility and mobility is excellent, according to the scouting reports, so he'd probably get that bonus. He reportedly leaps well for a center, so let's give him that one too.

That leaves strength as the last variable. Much of what I see in the scouting reports talks about him needing to get stronger. So, my feeling is that it's unlikely for him to have gotten a strength bonus.

What we'd be left with then is a bonus for agility and leaping, and a penalty for the ankle problems. The net effect would move him solidly into the first round -- ranking just outside the lottery.

Finally, if I set him to "above average" in each of the categories, AND dump the ding for injuries, he'd rate as a top 5 pick in most drafts. But, then we'd be talking about a different player -- an elite athlete who didn't get injured.

Is anyone ready to make the case that Len is THAT overwhelming a physical specimen? And, if the answer is "yes" -- why did he shoot so poorly from 2pt range? Why didn't he get more rebounds and block more shots? Why were his steal numbers so low?

[GhostsOfGil]

Wiz are planning to meet with Noel this Saturday! Interesting since originally Noel was only going to work out with the Cavs and the Magic.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... -saturday/

[DCZards]

Is anyone ready to make the case that Len is THAT overwhelming a physical specimen? And, if the answer is "yes" -- why did he shoot so poorly from 2pt range? Why didn't he get more rebounds and block more shots? Why were his steal numbers so low?

I believe Len's fairly recent and limited exposure to the game, particularly at the level that it's played here in the US, is the primary reason for his mediocre numbers, especially his rebounding, steals and shotblocking numbers. Improved numbers in those areas depend, in large part, on instincts and positioning, both of which often improve with experience.

Now, of course, if Len lacks the desire to be a better rebounder or shotblocker....then that's a problem.

[fishercob]

Really interesting blog piece on some statistical draft outliers.

Victor Oladipo and Nerlens Noel may be unicorns. I’ve been playing around with the season finder on sports-reference.com, after a long comments section discussion over their merits. They both had seasons last year that have never been equaled, at least not since 1997.

First, Victor is the only player of significant minutes to average 59% from the field (actually .599), 44% from three, and 2 steals and 2 assists per game. This doesn’t even take into account the .6 blocks and the 6+ rebounds per game. At 28 minutes a game, that’s pretty impressive, and unbelievably unique. He’s a two way player like no other, at least in post-1997 college basketball history. Lest you think I’m completely in the tank for Oladipo (I am), let’s look at Nerlens Noel.

Noel is the only player since 1997 to average over 50% from the field (actually .590), 4 blocks per game, 2 steals per game, and 9 rebounds. Actually the steals and blocks by themselves are singularities. The only people to come close to this were all seniors from middling programs. UMass’s Tony Gaffney (2009), came close with 3.8 blocks. Anthony Davis is the only player with over 4 blocks per game who gets close to the steals number, and that is at 1.3 per game, well below Noel’s 2.1.

[Kanyewest]

My TIERs are becoming clearer to me now...

TIER ONE ... none

TIER TWO ... Noel, Porter, Oladipo (3)

TIER THREE ... Len, Zeller, Olynyk, Burke (4)

TIER FOUR ... Bennett, Dieng, Adams, Rice, Muhammad, McLemore, Schroder, McCollum (8)

TIER FIVE ... Gobert, Muscala, Withey, Noguiera, Saric, Adetokunbo, KCP, Franklin, Green, Canaan
Jackson, Larkin, MCW (13)

TIER SIX ... Jatieh, Plumlee, Mitchell, Kelly, Harris, Karasev, Bullock, Crabbe, Ledo, Hardaway, Curry, Wolters (12)

No Bennett, DAT? The kid has to be at least a Tier Four talent.

BTW, I think you're dead wrong about McLemore. He's Tier Two, easily. You're right when you say that McLemore's handle is suspect. But he's young and I think his handle will improve significantly as well as his ability to get to the basket. Otherwise, Ben has all the physical tools, as well as a great shooting touch, to be one of the top 4 or 5 SGs in the NBA someday.

Oops, I knew something was off I accidently deleted his name. Tier Four. Top of Tier 4 infact.


And improving your handle at 20 when it's so rudimentary at this stage IS NOT GIVEN. Everyone treats this like a given but it's not. He could improve it, but only slightly or his improvement may not be very noticable at all. He's got a long way to go before he could ever reliably create shots off the dribble.

McLemore lack of a handle could be a positive since he could be a catch and shoot player at the next level. And he didn't appear to take bad shots or over dribble the ball that would force bad turnovers. Perhaps he can get to the rim a bit when defenders close out on him to prevent him from getting that open 3 point shot. Hopefully he can also show his ability to slash without the ball to create baskets in the paint.

[Nivek]

That could be, Zards. Normally a player with the kind of athleticism and size he's reputed to possess generate more rebounds, steals and blocks. But, lack of experience could help explain lower than expected numbers in each of those categories.

For comparison: This season, Len averaged 15.3 rebounds + steals + blocks per 40 minutes. Different positions, but Faried got 20.0 in his least productive season (freshman). Looking at sophomore centers, higher in this combined category is better, for the most part. Shaq got 26.9. Hakeem 26.2. Mutombo 23.3. Len is in the same range as sophomore centers like Dalembert, Olowokandi and Ezeli.

There have been good pros who scored lower than Len as sophomores -- Hibbert, Greg Monroe, Brook Lopez, Brad Miller, Brendan Haywood.

[GhostsOfGil]

From the Orlando board:

I read somewhere last night that Cleveland is still waiting on Medical records they requested from Noel like a week ago but still haven't received them yet. Evidently, according to the article, Cleveland were concerned because they did not get a copy of Noels Medical Records. I don't have time to look this up right now, but will do so when I get a break.

Cavs sources say they are still a couple weeks away from making up their minds. Still haven't gotten all the answers they need on the (Noel's) medical either. That's a big one. If they get uncomfortable with the medical, Porter could be the guy. Obviously, they could also trade this pick -- however the interest isn't particularly high. ESPN.com