Sixers Offseason Thread Part 4

[kriss73]

Men, the second apron has the potential to destroy a franchise

[kriss73]

According to https://www.spotrac.com/nba/apron/_/year/2024 we're hardcapped to the first apron.
But I don't see why. The Room Excepiton doesn't seem to trigger the hard cap, neither to receive picks in a sign&trade.

[Arsenal]

According to https://www.spotrac.com/nba/apron/_/year/2024 we're hardcapped to the first apron.
But I don't see why. The Room Excepiton doesn't seem to trigger the hard cap, neither to receive picks in a sign&trade.

I'm pretty sure they're incorrect.

[FireMorey]

The Sixers are not hardcapped to the first apron I believe that's wrong. Multiple capologists have refuted this.

[NearingZero]

Men, the second apron has the potential to destroy a franchise

Teams are certainly not going to exceed it without good reason. The expected big cap increases will blunt the impact for some teams, I think. The Sixers actually seem very well positioned to stay under it for the next 3 years, assuming the cap rises 10% each year.

[Arsenal]

Once we balloon KJ to $15m this year, a certain sweet-shooting stretch-4 in Utah will be salary matchable in trade at the deadline for KJ + any one vet min (e.g. Gordon).

I'm not saying that's what we should do, I'm just saying it will be possible...

[ckchen]

How much cap space we have left ??

Very likely zero. The remaining moves are to finalize the reported deals (allowed over the cap for various reasons), sign some minimum contracts (allowed over the cap), and presumably re-sign KJ Martin (because we have his "bird rights", which allows for significant over the cap spending).

The expectation is that we will sign KJ Martin to a big contract to better facilitate salary-matching in a trade later in the year. Exactly how much that contract will be is unclear, but it seems it could be as much as $15M (I expect less, maybe $6-11M, if it happens at all).

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable. How likely is it that any dream scenario players people are projecting are even still available by then?

[LeonJordanJr24]

How much cap space we have left ??

Very likely zero. The remaining moves are to finalize the reported deals (allowed over the cap for various reasons), sign some minimum contracts (allowed over the cap), and presumably re-sign KJ Martin (because we have his "bird rights", which allows for significant over the cap spending).

The expectation is that we will sign KJ Martin to a big contract to better facilitate salary-matching in a trade later in the year. Exactly how much that contract will be is unclear, but it seems it could be as much as $15M (I expect less, maybe $6-11M, if it happens at all).

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable.

This

[Arsenal]

How much cap space we have left ??

Very likely zero. The remaining moves are to finalize the reported deals (allowed over the cap for various reasons), sign some minimum contracts (allowed over the cap), and presumably re-sign KJ Martin (because we have his "bird rights", which allows for significant over the cap spending).

The expectation is that we will sign KJ Martin to a big contract to better facilitate salary-matching in a trade later in the year. Exactly how much that contract will be is unclear, but it seems it could be as much as $15M (I expect less, maybe $6-11M, if it happens at all).

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable.

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

[Slacktard]

I have a question regarding the second apron draft pick freeze because every time I see it explained it involves one pick.

So lets say a team is second apron to end 2024-2025... Their 2032 1st is frozen. If they are second apron at the end of the regular season in 2026 and 2027 it is moved to the end of the first round.

But does that only stop with the 2032 pick? What about the 2033 pick? If the team is second apron at the end of regular season in 2026 does the 2033 pick then get frozen and now have a push to end of 1st if second apron if 2 out the next 4 years are second apron?

[ckchen]

Very likely zero. The remaining moves are to finalize the reported deals (allowed over the cap for various reasons), sign some minimum contracts (allowed over the cap), and presumably re-sign KJ Martin (because we have his "bird rights", which allows for significant over the cap spending).

The expectation is that we will sign KJ Martin to a big contract to better facilitate salary-matching in a trade later in the year. Exactly how much that contract will be is unclear, but it seems it could be as much as $15M (I expect less, maybe $6-11M, if it happens at all).

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable.

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

The so what is you've spent $20-30M this year alone on his salary and the luxury tax payments for that salary. This is still a business and most businesses don't throw away $20-30M on these kind of slim chances.

[Arsenal]

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable.

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

The so what is you've spent $20-30M this year alone on his salary and the luxury tax payments for that salary. This is still a business and most businesses don't throw away $20-30M on these kind of slim chances.

This isn't a normal business. This is an NBA franchise trying to win a championship. All the real contenders have no problem paying luxury tax, and I predict the Sixers are no different. They planned for this for years, which is why they avoided the tax the last 2 seasons so they could spend big this year and next year without worrying about the punitive repeater tax.

[Arsenal]

If no one gives him a bigger deal I'd be happy to have BBall back for vet min. The benefit to him is we get full bird rights back on him next offseason, whereas if he switches teams he won't have any bird rights (regular nor early) after next season.

[Stanford]

the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value

Why would a fan care about this?

[Black Mage]

I personally don't think that everyone talking about a huge balloon payment for KJ is being realistic. I think people thought about the option when it could be a sign-and-trade possibility for a current trade they could have made last week, and they are taking it to an unrealistic level. They definitely won't max it out to get anywhere near the 2nd apron because they they don't want to run the risk of getting anywhere near that thing because of the penalties involved. Also, and most importantly, the thing people aren't thinking about at all is that anything over $170M in payroll is luxury tax territory. The team is not going to massively overpay a player then ALSO pay an additional tax of 100% of that salary just for the POSSIBILITY of MAYBE finding a trading partner at the trade deadline. There's too much at risk - that there is even a player available for that salary level, that it's someone you actually want to trade for, or that the team would even be amenable to making a deal with you. You don't pay $20M-30M on the chance that 7 months from now there might be a player making $10-15M that might be available. People are only hoping/wishing for some kind of dream scenario, without acknowledging that the alternative is that you just sunk that much money into KJ Martin and you're stuck with paying him 10x his value and he's untradeable.

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

The so what is you've spent $20-30M this year alone on his salary and the luxury tax payments for that salary. This is still a business and most businesses don't throw away $20-30M on these kind of slim chances.

First, they can't pay 20-30 mil to KJ; more like up to 17 or 18 mil from what I've read. Second, every year players, in the range KJ could be signed to, get moved. Last year, the Pacers used Bruce Brown's inflated contract as part of the deal that got them Siakam.

The list of players that could be had in the range of 10-17 mil is significant. Many of them are on teams expected to fall out of contention or rebuild. Just to list a few:

Larry Nance, JR.
Boucher
Olynyk
Isaiah Stewart
Bogdan
DFS
Grant Williams
Portis
Lauri

[ckchen]

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

The so what is you've spent $20-30M this year alone on his salary and the luxury tax payments for that salary. This is still a business and most businesses don't throw away $20-30M on these kind of slim chances.

This isn't a normal business. This is an NBA franchise trying to win a championship. All the real contenders have no problem paying luxury tax, and I predict the Sixers are no different. They planned for this for years, which is why they avoided the tax the last 2 seasons so they could spend big this year and next year without worrying about the punitive repeater tax.

I realize it's not a normal business, but that doesn't mean they are just definitely going to toss $20-30M at a maybe scenario. I'm not saying re-signing KJ is out of the question, but I think we need to acknowledge the dollar for dollar penalty they would be making for every cent of his contract. Literally every NBA team dumps salaries to avoid paying massive luxury tax bills, the Sixers have been among those teams that consider every cent paid. It would be fairly out of character for the team to suddenly just decide they are willing to pay $20-30M for essentially a trade chip.

[NearingZero]

So what if he's untradeable? Then you cut him after the season since all future years will be not guaranteed. It's very likely the team has already committed to paying significant tax this year, which is why they avoided it the last 2 seasons.

The so what is you've spent $20-30M this year alone on his salary and the luxury tax payments for that salary. This is still a business and most businesses don't throw away $20-30M on these kind of slim chances.

First, they can't pay 20-30 mil to KJ; more like up to 17 or 18 mil from what I've read. Second, every year players, in the range KJ could be signed to, get moved. Last year, the Pacers used Bruce Brown's inflated contract as part of the deal that got them Siakam.

The list of players that could be had in the range of 10-17 mil is significant. Many of them are on teams expected to fall out of contention or rebuild. Just to list a few:

Larry Nance, JR.
Boucher
Olynyk
Isaiah Stewart
Bogdan
DFS
Grant Williams
Portis
Lauri

Not the poster you quoted, but my understanding was that $20-30M was not referring to his salary, but to his salary + tax. In fact, I believe giving him $10M more than a vet min would have a true cost of about $31M: 1.75x tax on the first $5M extra, 2.5x tax on the second $5M.

I hope ownership is willing to pay that cost, but I don't 100% expect it.

[Covi_Marsh]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46[/x]

Who this guy? He got a good bit of followers. Nobody credible follows him though

[Doramas]

I have a doubt. Oubre signed for two seasons for 16.3 million, but the second year, 2025-26, is a player option?

[sixers hoops]

According to https://www.spotrac.com/nba/apron/_/year/2024 we're hardcapped to the first apron.
But I don't see why. The Room Excepiton doesn't seem to trigger the hard cap, neither to receive picks in a sign&trade.

Where does it say that?