2018 Free Agency and Trade Discussion continued

[sunsbum]

I like Isiah, hard worker.. great story.. but he wasn't anything to write home about. He's been in the league 4 years now and hasn't improved his FG% or 3pt%. I'd rather gamble on a defensive dog like shaq who already shoots 47% from the field with his horrid 3pt%.

[WeekapaugGroove]

The battle for that last roster spot will probably work itself out. If any of cannan, Reed, daniels, or shaq get hurt from now until the opener you can simply release them because they are all on 1 year deals. If they are all healthy I'd rank it Reed, Shaq, Daniels, cannan as of now. I only have Daniels ahead of cannan because of his contact which could be used in a trade at the deadline.

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[ImNotMcDiSwear]

The battle for that last roster spot will probably work itself out. If any of cannan, Reed, daniels, or shaq get hurt from now until the opener you can simply release them because they are all on 1 year deals. If they are all healthy I'd rank it Reed, Shaq, Daniels, cannan as of now. I only have Daniels ahead of cannan because of his contact which could be used in a trade at the deadline.

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Don't get me wrong, a solid veteran PG is a great thing to have. But professional flamethrowers like Daniels are more valuable. The reason is simple - even a great team in a big game can use a guy to come in and hit a few threes in a row. Canaan is only useful if he's better than the alternatives at PG. And I think Shaq is more valuable, and Knight definitely should be as well. Would he be better than Okobo this season? Kind of an irrelevant question, actually... so yeah, no reason to expect Canaan to make the roster short of an injury.

[bwgood77]

The battle for that last roster spot will probably work itself out. If any of cannan, Reed, daniels, or shaq get hurt from now until the opener you can simply release them because they are all on 1 year deals. If they are all healthy I'd rank it Reed, Shaq, Daniels, cannan as of now. I only have Daniels ahead of cannan because of his contact which could be used in a trade at the deadline.

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If it is a battle between Shaq and Isaiah, we can just decline the loser's guarantee and re-sign them to our 2nd two way deal contract if they don't get picked up by another team, which is probably doubtful.

[NTB]

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[ImNotMcDiSwear]

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I feel this man.

I've been looking at the WC teams, and I see a little daylight for us. I think Ariza will be hugely beneficial in a lot of these matchups. Rockets are thin, Spurs and Pelicans have taken a step back, and I think Denver and Portland may be vulnerable. OTOH, Grizzlies, Lakers, Clippers and Mavs have all improved; the Grizzlies and Lakers should both make the playoffs. In my estimation, GSW, OKC, UTA, HOU and LAL will all certainly make the playoffs.

We just need a couple of these young guys to take that next step. Expectations for the team are low because expectations for our players are low. I have faith that Koko will keep us competitive most nights, and that in itself will make a huge difference. The questions are, who among Mikal, Jackson, Bender and Chriss will take that next step? Can BK bounce back better than ever? How BIG is Ayton? Can Shaq and Reed really play? How good can Devin Booker truly be??

....... If we are on pace for a 28 win season at the deadline, I'm like 99% sure that any big trade that goes down will involve our young players and at least the MIL pick. I could see certain players possibly being made available at a high price - Wall, Love, Hayward, Lillard, Davis maybe. Or, I am sure - and we'll probably do this anyway - we'll attempt to add a third star via free agency.

......... And since I'm here, I had a few thoughts on that report of us gauging Dragan's value. We might be doing this in order to figure out our options with respect to him and Chriss. We may be focused on increasing our cap flexibility and carving out time for Richaun at the 5 and TJ at the 4. I don't think we'll make any trades before the start of the season, and if we trade at all, we'll do it close to the deadline.

[Qwigglez]

Is that Vegas odds? If so, I'd take the over. I could see us wining at least 30 games. I'm going to Vegas in a month so I'll place bets then.

[Jdiddy701]

Is that Vegas odds? If so, I'd take the over. I could see us wining at least 30 games. I'm going to Vegas in a month so I'll place bets then.

How much you putting down? I was going to be two thousand on last year’s odds. I would have chose the over. Needless to say, I’m so happy I didn’t end up going to Vegas. I also would take the over for this years. Not making that bet though, last year was an eye opener for me.

I would have been HOT for how much we benched Booker + Warren at the end of the season. Lol


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[jcsunsfan]

Is that Vegas odds? If so, I'd take the over. I could see us wining at least 30 games. I'm going to Vegas in a month so I'll place bets then.

How much you putting down? I was going to be two thousand on last year’s odds. I would have chose the over. Needless to say, I’m so happy I didn’t end up going to Vegas. I also would take the over for this years. Not making that bet though, last year was an eye opener for me.

I would have been HOT for how much we benched Booker + Warren at the end of the season. Lol


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Never bet the over on a team unless you believe that team will make the playoffs. Tanking is real, especially after the break.

[Waylay13]

Is that Vegas odds? If so, I'd take the over. I could see us wining at least 30 games. I'm going to Vegas in a month so I'll place bets then.

How much you putting down? I was going to be two thousand on last year’s odds. I would have chose the over. Needless to say, I’m so happy I didn’t end up going to Vegas. I also would take the over for this years. Not making that bet though, last year was an eye opener for me.

I would have been HOT for how much we benched Booker + Warren at the end of the season. Lol


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Never bet the over on a team unless you believe that team will make the playoffs. Tanking is real, especially after the break.

The problem with this is that the talent level in this next draft (I think this draft has less talent then 2016 draft) plus the odds for tanking have been changed so that it isn't really a good option any more. Also if we hope to bring in some vet talent in free agency next summer we need to perform enough so that it looks like we are near to making the playoffs.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

How much you putting down? I was going to be two thousand on last year’s odds. I would have chose the over. Needless to say, I’m so happy I didn’t end up going to Vegas. I also would take the over for this years. Not making that bet though, last year was an eye opener for me.

I would have been HOT for how much we benched Booker + Warren at the end of the season. Lol


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Never bet the over on a team unless you believe that team will make the playoffs. Tanking is real, especially after the break.

The problem with this is that the talent level in this next draft (I think this draft has less talent then 2016 draft) plus the odds for tanking have been changed so that it isn't really a good option any more. Also if we hope to bring in some vet talent in free agency next summer we need to perform enough so that it looks like we are near to making the playoffs.

Agreed. I have a hard time seeing the FO go ahead with tanking given the talent already on the roster (not to mention their relatively higher rate of success drafting in the late lotto (Booker, TJ) as opposed to the top (Ayton, Jackson, Dragan).

[bwgood77]

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I feel this man.

I've been looking at the WC teams, and I see a little daylight for us. I think Ariza will be hugely beneficial in a lot of these matchups. Rockets are thin, Spurs and Pelicans have taken a step back, and I think Denver and Portland may be vulnerable. OTOH, Grizzlies, Lakers, Clippers and Mavs have all improved; the Grizzlies and Lakers should both make the playoffs. In my estimation, GSW, OKC, UTA, HOU and LAL will all certainly make the playoffs.

Why is Denver vulnerable? They are young like us but most of their young guys are proven. Jokic had the 5th best RPM in the entire NBA and was #1 in Centers by a pretty good margin http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Millsap missed a ton of time last year and the rest of their starters are young and improving...I think Barton starting over Chandler helps, as Chandler is certainly on the decline. Their depth should be fairly decent with Hernangomez, Plumlee, Lyles and perhaps IT.

I doubt Porter plays but in time he could be a big addition.

They are projected with the advanced stat guys to finish 4th. I'd be pretty shocked if they miss the playoffs. While I think Memphis is underrated by many, I don't think they have nearly as good as chance as making it. And who knows about the Lakers? Nothing will surprise me with them, but I'll be a bit surprised if they have HCA in the first round.

[bwgood77]

Is that Vegas odds? If so, I'd take the over. I could see us wining at least 30 games. I'm going to Vegas in a month so I'll place bets then.

How much you putting down? I was going to be two thousand on last year’s odds. I would have chose the over. Needless to say, I’m so happy I didn’t end up going to Vegas. I also would take the over for this years. Not making that bet though, last year was an eye opener for me.

I would have been HOT for how much we benched Booker + Warren at the end of the season. Lol


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Never bet the over on a team unless you believe that team will make the playoffs. Tanking is real, especially after the break.

I'll be REAL surprised if they actively tank by sitting guys like Booker, Warren, Ayton, this year, but I won't be surprised if they trade Ariza if they are not doing well and a contender wants him for an expiring. But by that point there might not be a big drop off from Ariza to Bridges anyway or someone else anyway.

We could, however, have a significant injury to a key player which could really hurt us.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

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I feel this man.

I've been looking at the WC teams, and I see a little daylight for us. I think Ariza will be hugely beneficial in a lot of these matchups. Rockets are thin, Spurs and Pelicans have taken a step back, and I think Denver and Portland may be vulnerable. OTOH, Grizzlies, Lakers, Clippers and Mavs have all improved; the Grizzlies and Lakers should both make the playoffs. In my estimation, GSW, OKC, UTA, HOU and LAL will all certainly make the playoffs.

Why is Denver vulnerable? They are young like us but most of their young guys are proven. Jokic had the 5th best RPM in the entire NBA and was #1 in Centers by a pretty good margin http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Millsap missed a ton of time last year and the rest of their starters are young and improving...I think Barton starting over Chandler helps, as Chandler is certainly on the decline. Their depth should be fairly decent with Hernangomez, Plumlee, Lyles and perhaps IT.

I doubt Porter plays but in time he could be a big addition.

They are projected with the advanced stat guys to finish 4th. I'd be pretty shocked if they miss the playoffs. While I think Memphis is underrated by many, I don't think they have nearly as good as chance as making it. And who knows about the Lakers? Nothing will surprise me with them, but I'll be a bit surprised if they have HCA in the first round.

The way I see it, the Nugs have seven guys you can rely on for valuable minutes - Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic, Lyles and Plumlee. Millsap has aged and I'm not sure he'll continue to produce at a very high level. Seems to me that they really lack for wing depth, and IT could provide a shot in the arm - or not, in which case, they'll also suffer for PG depth. Hernangomez struggled his second season, and I think he's a PF anyways. Outside of Harris and probably Millsap, not a whole lot of defense on that squad. I just don't think they took any steps to be better next season than last and are depending on Murray to be a rock star next season (or for IT to save the day). Perhaps I'm underestimating Jokic's supporting cast, but I simply wouldn't be very confident were I in DEN's shoes.

I think we have the talent to beat that team, especially if Ayton is able to put up some kind of resistance against the Joker. We have so much more depth at the wing positions than they do. And if we're believing in Hernangomez, why wouldn't believe in Bender and Chriss? IDK why prognosticators would believe in them taking a big jump this season, when they haven't added anything - other than, maybe, IT.

[bwgood77]

I feel this man.

I've been looking at the WC teams, and I see a little daylight for us. I think Ariza will be hugely beneficial in a lot of these matchups. Rockets are thin, Spurs and Pelicans have taken a step back, and I think Denver and Portland may be vulnerable. OTOH, Grizzlies, Lakers, Clippers and Mavs have all improved; the Grizzlies and Lakers should both make the playoffs. In my estimation, GSW, OKC, UTA, HOU and LAL will all certainly make the playoffs.

Why is Denver vulnerable? They are young like us but most of their young guys are proven. Jokic had the 5th best RPM in the entire NBA and was #1 in Centers by a pretty good margin http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Millsap missed a ton of time last year and the rest of their starters are young and improving...I think Barton starting over Chandler helps, as Chandler is certainly on the decline. Their depth should be fairly decent with Hernangomez, Plumlee, Lyles and perhaps IT.

I doubt Porter plays but in time he could be a big addition.

They are projected with the advanced stat guys to finish 4th. I'd be pretty shocked if they miss the playoffs. While I think Memphis is underrated by many, I don't think they have nearly as good as chance as making it. And who knows about the Lakers? Nothing will surprise me with them, but I'll be a bit surprised if they have HCA in the first round.

The way I see it, the Nugs have seven guys you can rely on for valuable minutes - Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic, Lyles and Plumlee. Millsap has aged and I'm not sure he'll continue to produce at a very high level. Seems to me that they really lack for wing depth, and IT could provide a shot in the arm - or not, in which case, they'll also suffer for PG depth. Hernangomez struggled his second season, and I think he's a PF anyways. Outside of Harris and probably Millsap, not a whole lot of defense on that squad. I just don't think they took any steps to be better next season than last and are depending on Murray to be a rock star next season (or for IT to save the day). Perhaps I'm underestimating Jokic's supporting cast, but I simply wouldn't be very confident were I in DEN's shoes.

I think we have the talent to beat that team, especially if Ayton is able to put up some kind of resistance against the Joker. We have so much more depth at the wing positions than they do. And if we're believing in Hernangomez, why wouldn't believe in Bender and Chriss? IDK why prognosticators would believe in them taking a big jump this season, when they haven't added anything - other than, maybe, IT.

We might be able to beat them on a given night, but last year they had the 6th best offense and we had the worst. Their defense was bad but not as bad as ours.

Their projection has them improving slightly (they won 46), likely because Millsap missed a ton of time, and Chandler was kind of a negative, while Barton was very good.

The projections I've seen have them around 20 more wins than us...some a bit more, some slightly less. I expect us to be better than projections by a little bit but I figure their's is pretty close to right on.

Besides the Vegas Over/Unders, which has them 19 ahead, here are some based on advanced stat projections:

Pelton:

4. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.5

Though they fell just short of the postseason, the Nuggets won 46 games with newcomer Paul Millsap (38 games) playing less than half their games. Add in the development of young talent and possible addition by subtraction with the Wilson Chandler trade, and Denver is a sleeper to contend for home-court advantage in the opening round.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 27.2

While the Suns might be trying to win after signing Ariza to a one-year, $15 million contract, RPM still doesn't see them as particularly competitive. After all, Phoenix was last in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, so even a projected improvement to 27th on offense won't help much. (The Suns still project as the league's worst defense on a per-possession basis.)

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[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Why is Denver vulnerable? They are young like us but most of their young guys are proven. Jokic had the 5th best RPM in the entire NBA and was #1 in Centers by a pretty good margin http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Millsap missed a ton of time last year and the rest of their starters are young and improving...I think Barton starting over Chandler helps, as Chandler is certainly on the decline. Their depth should be fairly decent with Hernangomez, Plumlee, Lyles and perhaps IT.

I doubt Porter plays but in time he could be a big addition.

They are projected with the advanced stat guys to finish 4th. I'd be pretty shocked if they miss the playoffs. While I think Memphis is underrated by many, I don't think they have nearly as good as chance as making it. And who knows about the Lakers? Nothing will surprise me with them, but I'll be a bit surprised if they have HCA in the first round.

The way I see it, the Nugs have seven guys you can rely on for valuable minutes - Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic, Lyles and Plumlee. Millsap has aged and I'm not sure he'll continue to produce at a very high level. Seems to me that they really lack for wing depth, and IT could provide a shot in the arm - or not, in which case, they'll also suffer for PG depth. Hernangomez struggled his second season, and I think he's a PF anyways. Outside of Harris and probably Millsap, not a whole lot of defense on that squad. I just don't think they took any steps to be better next season than last and are depending on Murray to be a rock star next season (or for IT to save the day). Perhaps I'm underestimating Jokic's supporting cast, but I simply wouldn't be very confident were I in DEN's shoes.

I think we have the talent to beat that team, especially if Ayton is able to put up some kind of resistance against the Joker. We have so much more depth at the wing positions than they do. And if we're believing in Hernangomez, why wouldn't believe in Bender and Chriss? IDK why prognosticators would believe in them taking a big jump this season, when they haven't added anything - other than, maybe, IT.

We might be able to beat them on a given night, but last year they had the 6th best offense and we had the worst. Their defense was bad but not as bad as ours.

Their projection has them improving slightly (they won 46), likely because Millsap missed a ton of time, and Chandler was kind of a negative, while Barton was very good.

The projections I've seen have them around 20 more wins than us...some a bit more, some slightly less. I expect us to be better than projections by a little bit but I figure their's is pretty close to right on.

Besides the Vegas Over/Unders, which has them 19 ahead, here are some based on advanced stat projections:

Pelton:

4. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.5

Though they fell just short of the postseason, the Nuggets won 46 games with newcomer Paul Millsap (38 games) playing less than half their games. Add in the development of young talent and possible addition by subtraction with the Wilson Chandler trade, and Denver is a sleeper to contend for home-court advantage in the opening round.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 27.2

While the Suns might be trying to win after signing Ariza to a one-year, $15 million contract, RPM still doesn't see them as particularly competitive. After all, Phoenix was last in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, so even a projected improvement to 27th on offense won't help much. (The Suns still project as the league's worst defense on a per-possession basis.)

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I get all that. But prognosticators have big misses most years. Barton may have benefited from playing more at the 2 and by coming off the bench. As bad as Wilson Chandler may have been, it's not like they replaced him with anyone (unless Malik Beasley takes a big step forward). Barton's also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and if he goes down for a spell, they're super-thin at the wings. IT might not be a positive contributor as he returns from injury. An injury to Jokic, Murray or Harris would really hurt, given the aforementioned lack of depth (except at the 4).

I also think it's hard to extrapolate our team numbers from last season to this one. A competent coach, plus several additions, young players improving up and down the roster, and no tank in effect. I thought Ulis contributed mightily to our struggles last season, and that Chandler's inability to do anything more than 4 feet from the basket was also hugely detrimental. So I think there are several factors that point to us outperforming the metrics.

I'm simply saying they're vulnerable, not that I predict we'll best them. And that assessment is based on my perception that they've lost depth and haven't really added anything. Though who knows - maybe Michael Porter shows up on day 1, pushing them to the next level. It's really hard to tell.

[bwgood77]

The way I see it, the Nugs have seven guys you can rely on for valuable minutes - Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic, Lyles and Plumlee. Millsap has aged and I'm not sure he'll continue to produce at a very high level. Seems to me that they really lack for wing depth, and IT could provide a shot in the arm - or not, in which case, they'll also suffer for PG depth. Hernangomez struggled his second season, and I think he's a PF anyways. Outside of Harris and probably Millsap, not a whole lot of defense on that squad. I just don't think they took any steps to be better next season than last and are depending on Murray to be a rock star next season (or for IT to save the day). Perhaps I'm underestimating Jokic's supporting cast, but I simply wouldn't be very confident were I in DEN's shoes.

I think we have the talent to beat that team, especially if Ayton is able to put up some kind of resistance against the Joker. We have so much more depth at the wing positions than they do. And if we're believing in Hernangomez, why wouldn't believe in Bender and Chriss? IDK why prognosticators would believe in them taking a big jump this season, when they haven't added anything - other than, maybe, IT.

We might be able to beat them on a given night, but last year they had the 6th best offense and we had the worst. Their defense was bad but not as bad as ours.

Their projection has them improving slightly (they won 46), likely because Millsap missed a ton of time, and Chandler was kind of a negative, while Barton was very good.

The projections I've seen have them around 20 more wins than us...some a bit more, some slightly less. I expect us to be better than projections by a little bit but I figure their's is pretty close to right on.

Besides the Vegas Over/Unders, which has them 19 ahead, here are some based on advanced stat projections:

Pelton:

4. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.5

Though they fell just short of the postseason, the Nuggets won 46 games with newcomer Paul Millsap (38 games) playing less than half their games. Add in the development of young talent and possible addition by subtraction with the Wilson Chandler trade, and Denver is a sleeper to contend for home-court advantage in the opening round.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 27.2

While the Suns might be trying to win after signing Ariza to a one-year, $15 million contract, RPM still doesn't see them as particularly competitive. After all, Phoenix was last in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, so even a projected improvement to 27th on offense won't help much. (The Suns still project as the league's worst defense on a per-possession basis.)

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I get all that. But prognosticators have big misses most years. Barton may have benefited from playing more at the 2 and by coming off the bench. As bad as Wilson Chandler may have been, it's not like they replaced him with anyone (unless Malik Beasley takes a big step forward). Barton's also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and if he goes down for a spell, they're super-thin at the wings. IT might not be a positive contributor as he returns from injury. An injury to Jokic, Murray or Harris would really hurt, given the aforementioned lack of depth (except at the 4).

I also think it's hard to extrapolate our team numbers from last season to this one. A competent coach, plus several additions, young players improving up and down the roster, and no tank in effect. I thought Ulis contributed mightily to our struggles last season, and that Chandler's inability to do anything more than 4 feet from the basket was also hugely detrimental. So I think there are several factors that point to us outperforming the metrics.

I'm simply saying they're vulnerable, not that I predict we'll best them. And that assessment is based on my perception that they've lost depth and haven't really added anything. Though who knows - maybe Michael Porter shows up on day 1, pushing them to the next level. It's really hard to tell.

Well sure, if they have injuries to their best players, they won't be as good, and if we do (we've faced our share and TJ/Book their own injuries the last couple years). But just having Millsap instead of having to play Plumlee or Faried as much with Jokic and the progression of their young guards and wings seem like they should improve. Murray improved a ton the second half of last year so I think there is a good chance that continues. Harris almost missed like 15-17 games.

But yeah, if Jokic goes down, that hurts big time. Far bigger than if any of our players went down.

[Saberestar]

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[MrMiyagi]

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LA getting the MoBros as their big free agent signings

[stoo]

Everybody's gonna miss all their projections about incoming season... crazzy (good) nba season infront of us