ATLTimekeeper wrote:Dr Mufasa wrote:I know people want to hear it but I wouldn't bet any of my personal money on Valanciunas being in the NBA after his rookie contract. I'm not saying I'd predict that happens just that I wouldn't feel good about my money being on the line in that scenario. Just MO, feel free to hate.
I won't hate on this comment, but I'll point out how unlikely it is and maybe it'll inspire you to do some more research.
Since 1990 there have been only 3 centers drafted in the top 10 that haven't made it past 5 seasons. And none taken in the top 5. So, you're basically putting him in the same crop as Hoffa, Sene and POB. My rough count is 42 centers taken in that time (I didn't include anyone still under a rookie deal). So about 7% of all centers taken in the top 10 in that time frame have made it fewer than 5 seasons.
Here's another list of top 10 centers "busts" that lasted more than 5 years in the league:
Kwame Brown (11 and counting) , Michael Olowokandi (9), Darko Milicic (9 and counting), Shawn Bradley (11), Sheldon Williams (6 and counting), Bryant Reeves (7), Adonal Foyle (12), Chris Mihm (8), Sagana Diop (11 and counting), Felton Spencer (12), Tony Battie (14).
So even if he's a bust pick, the average career length is 10 years. If you factor in the superbusts, the average career length is 8.6. What were you basing your opinion off of?
Is 7% supposed to be convincing as some sort of "It can't happen" type of number? Thabeet and Skita (not a C really but still 7 foot Euro) being included would also raise that number. I'm sure the %s for lotto picked SFs is around 90-95%+ as well. Didn't help Ammo and Joe Alexander, or Wes Johnson if he continues to look like this. For PGs it's likely around 90-95% and Jonny Flynn looks like out of the NBA soon. Just because things don't happen often doesn't mean they won't
But let's say your 7% number is right. 2011 lotto had 3 Cs (Kanter, Valanciunas, Biyombo) and we know Kanter and Biyombo are NBA players. If you multiply 93% * 93% * 93%, you get 80.4% chance of what I'll call "3 for 3 non stiffy" with those Cs. If the number is 10% all out bust potential each (justification: all 3 players were extremely young internationals), 90% * 90% * 90% is 72.4%. But are we sure these numbers are right? What if the bust factor for extremely young, international Cs like Kanter/Biyombo/Valanciunas in a draft where the lack of talent made GMs desperate for a young center, something like 18%. I did 82% * 82% * 82% and I got 55.1%.
Now imagine Vucevic got picked 14th instead of 16th., for all intents and purposes a meaningless gap considering last year was considered to have the best 15-30 type of talent in years (as steals like Faried, Leonard, Shumpert, Brooks, etc.), in combination with a very weak mid to late lotto historically. With the 7% number the chances of the draft going 4 for 4 in NBA talent is 74.8%, and with 10%, is 65.6%. With 18%, it's 45.2%.
Are you still convinced by that number?
The argument against Valanciunas flopping isn't numbers. There have easily been enough lottery picks who ended up literally non NBA players, to say it's WELL within the realm of reason, especially for a skinny international 18 yr old C (he's not skinny now, but at the time). There's a non NBA lottery picked player almost every draft and all the teams who took them could've written it off as impossible using the stats you just did, but someone had to draw the short straw. The argument for Valanciunas is proving he has enough talent to have a floor that high. Like I said I'm not going to get on my high horse and say people are wrong - I've actually gone out on a limb multiple occasions to say my PREDICTION is an Anderson Varejao type of career as a semi limited 10/10 hustle big. Just that the guy doesn't jump out as an NBA player to me compared to his Lithuanian competition and for that reason I wouldn't feel confident saying he is one
