Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Porter to me is ideal as a 3rd piece to the puzzle with Wall and Beal. I like his versatility, all around complimentary game, and all the intangibles he brings. His skillset allows us to deal Ariza and utilize his 7 mil+ salary to address other needs.

The other player I rate above Len for the Wizards is McCollum. As a 3rd guard who can score he allows us to put constant pressure on opposing teams with a consistant attack of Wall/Beal, Wall/McCollum, McCollum/Beal. With our vet front court doing the work inside and the perimeter attack of this guard rotation, plus Webster on the wing, the Wizards suddenly become an offensively potent team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't mind a great scorer who can't do anything else. If Shabazz could be a healthier prime Kevin Martin with the ridiculous TS% and foul rate then I'd be all for it.

The scary thing about Shabazz is that he probably shot better than he should have when you consider he wasn't really known as a great shooter coming out of HS. That and his FT precentage was 71%. Can you imagine shabazz with a worse shooting percentage than he had this year? He wouldn't even be a 2nd round pick then.

Before Muhammed enrolled at UCLA, i saw some of his HS and AAU highlight footage. Shabazz M reminded me of a young Jerry Stackhouse.

My concern with him now is statistically he was not even the best player on his team. Jordan Adams was. On top of that, Kyle Anderson did a few things that stood out. I think Muhammed will be a mildly disappointing NBA player. I will be shocked if he becomes a star in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Porter to me is ideal as a 3rd piece to the puzzle with Wall and Beal. I like his versatility, all around complimentary game, and all the intangibles he brings. His skillset allows us to deal Ariza and utilize his 7 mil+ salary to address other needs.

The other player I rate above Len for the Wizards is McCollum. As a 3rd guard who can score he allows us to put constant pressure on opposing teams with a consistant attack of Wall/Beal, Wall/McCollum, McCollum/Beal. With our vet front court doing the work inside and the perimeter attack of this guard rotation, plus Webster on the wing, the Wizards suddenly become an offensively potent team.

Porter really is a no-brainer great fit at SF. I think he's going to fill out even more and become a stronger scorer and a better defender as well.

McCollum is a good player for the Wizards to pick ahead of Len. I think Muscala or even Zeke Marshall at 31 are viable alternative picks besides Len early. All of this said, I would risk drafting Olynyk instead of McCollum because I think Wolters is underrated and will be a value pick in round 2.

As far as most potential, I wonder about Adetokunbo and possibly Gobert. Also, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope fits the profile of a post-draft riser.

[stevemcqueen1]

So why did he shoot only 46% from 2 point range?

Why is that the only thing that seems to matter to you? Do you disagree that he can score in all the ways I listed?

He could probably score from half court too at times, but his efficiency wouldn't be very good.

Jordan Crawford could score in a lot of ways.

Jordan Crawford is not like Shabazz Muhammad.

[stevemcqueen1]

Porter to me is ideal as a 3rd piece to the puzzle with Wall and Beal. I like his versatility, all around complimentary game, and all the intangibles he brings. His skillset allows us to deal Ariza and utilize his 7 mil+ salary to address other needs.

The other player I rate above Len for the Wizards is McCollum. As a 3rd guard who can score he allows us to put constant pressure on opposing teams with a consistant attack of Wall/Beal, Wall/McCollum, McCollum/Beal. With our vet front court doing the work inside and the perimeter attack of this guard rotation, plus Webster on the wing, the Wizards suddenly become an offensively potent team.

Porter really is a no-brainer great fit at SF. I think he's going to fill out even more and become a stronger scorer and a better defender as well.

McCollum is a good player for the Wizards to pick ahead of Len. I think Muscala or even Zeke Marshall at 31 are viable alternative picks besides Len early. All of this said, I would risk drafting Olynyk instead of McCollum because I think Wolters is underrated and will be a value pick in round 2.

As far as most potential, I wonder about Adetokunbo and possibly Gobert. Also, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope fits the profile of a post-draft riser.

I like Porter a lot and he is a no brainer. I'd pick him third or fourth if it were me building this team. But if it were me building this team, Randy Wittman would not be the coach. Since he is, and since he has no ability to develop a raw talent (especially a big) and handicaps every move we make, I'd probably take Porter first or second. Have I mentioned how little I think of Wittman?

McCollum has grown on me. I think he's the third best scorer in the class behind Bennett and Bazz. He won't have the interior punch they do, but he's also a pure combo guard with the best package of long range shooting and creative ball handling in the class. Better than Burke.

He's cleaner than Bazz in many ways. He can run point, which is a plus. He plays good defense. He supposedly has great intangibles. I think he's a good future starter because he can play D, so he'd be incredible off the bench. Really the ideal third guard for this team.

Having said that, I feel comfortable predicting the Wizards will not pick him. 8 is high to be drafting a bench guard for every team. Plus, despite the tourney wins, McCollum has a little bit of level of competition concerns as the Patriot League is trash. And McCollum will probably go too early for us to trade down or up into his range. Some team will nab him to be a starter.

I'm with you, I think he ends up being a better NBA player than Len though. I think he ends up better than Olynyk too. When the dust settles on this poor class in about 5 or 6 years, I think McCollum will be one of the few players who ended up being a good player for a good team.

[stevemcqueen1]

McCollum's dribble pull up is gorgeous. The prettiest shot in the class. Carmelo-esque. He's got a perfect jumper and a nasty crossover.

He'd be an elite prospect if he were a neater fit at one position. Stronger than Steph Curry but not as crafty nor as good a shooter. Bigger and stronger than Trey Burke but not a pure PG like him, not a natural facilitator. Not as electric an athlete as Damian Lillard. And not as big and athletic as a pure SG like Beal.

He should still be really good though. We'd be tiny, but lineups with him and Wall and Beal would be so incredibly potent offensively. We could shell teams like the Warriors, and if we had a pair of outstanding defensive bigs, we might just be able to get by on the other end.

[tontoz]

Jordan Crawford is not like Shabazz Muhammad.

Do you disagree that Crawford can score in a lot of ways?

[stevemcqueen1]

We drafted Beal 3rd overall despite posting worse numbers than Shabazz and he's been terrific, looks like a home run. If you were to look just at Beal's averages and percentages at Florida, you would think he couldn't shoot and that he was a bad shot chucker, both of which couldn't be farther from the truth.

I'm struggling to see why you characterize Beal's numbers as worse. Beal in college was better than Shabazz in every single advanced stat except offensive rebound percentage and turnover percentage. He blows Shabazz away TS%, DRB%, AST%, BLK%, ORtg and DRtg. And Beal did it as an 18-year-old. Muhammed was 20.

I was comparing their scoring ability and scoring numbers specifically, I don't know if I was clear about that. It's obvious Beal is a better all around player, better passer, rebounder, and defender relative to his position.

Muhammad had only a .002 worse FG%, better % from 3, higher PPG average, and got to the FT line more often per game than Beal did. He was a better scorer than Beal by those numbers. So if Muhammad's numbers aren't good, like several claimed, then what does that make Beal's? And yet Beal has been great and looks like he's going to be a big time scorer.

Beal had the tools to be a great scorer all along and his Florida numbers didn't seem to demonstrate that. College numbers are unreliable. A normal 13 game slump like basketball players (especially shooters) go through all the time, will completely tank your numbers for the season. That's what happened to Beal. I think Muhammad is in a similar situation There were all kinds of non-basketball things going on for Muhammad and UCLA that dribbled over onto the court and effected Muhammad's performance. Drafting Muhammad is probably buying low on him.

[stevemcqueen1]

Jordan Crawford is not like Shabazz Muhammad.

Do you disagree that Crawford can score in a lot of ways?

Yes he can, but he can't score in the ways Muhammad can. Any other straw men you feel like posting?

[nate33]

Muhammad had only a .002 worse FG%, better % from 3, higher PPG average, and got to the FT line more often per game than Beal did. He was a better scorer than Beal by those numbers.

I'm not going to let you get away with that either. Muhammed's FG% was better only because Beal took so many 3's. Beal's 2P% was 54%. Muhammed's was 46%. Beal was easily the better scorer as evidenced by his TS% which was 5 percentage points higher.

And again, 2 years difference in age.

[Ruzious]

Who's seen Tyrus McGee play? Without the physical stuff, he has a pretty good rating in YODA. Looks to be an outstanding shooter. His DX page says he's 6-2, which would suggest PG, but he has few assists, which suggests SG.

Sounds like a good 2nd round sleeper. That arrest seems fairly minor. Another possible 2nd round sleeper is James Ennis from the Beach. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Ennis-41434/ Sounds like a potential future Trevor Ariza. Was more of an athlete than a basketball player, but maybe the skills are coming around. Could fit as a 3 and D 3.

[tontoz]

Jordan Crawford is not like Shabazz Muhammad.

Do you disagree that Crawford can score in a lot of ways?

Yes he can, but he can't score in the ways Muhammad can. Any other straw men you feel like posting?

And Bazz can't score in the ways Jordan can. Jordan is definitely better off the dribble. He also can create for other players which Bazz hasn't done at all.

[nuposse04]

Bennett has the potential to be a good offensive player. I think he's going to be like a more perimeter oriented Millsap. I think that still equates to a bench player though, and without Olynyks versatility as a PF/C but with added tweener concerns.

As for Drummond, his athletic tools are probably the best I've seen from a big. Lens in comparison are merely average, that's just how ridiculous Drummond was/is as an athlete.

And even then Drummonds sample size is terrible. There's still a decent chance that he never looks as good as he did briefly this year.

Bench Player? You are seriously underestamating Bennett.

Per 40 Stats for Freshman year for AB and Melo

Bennett
PTS FG% 2PT% 3PT% REB BLKS PER TS
23.2 52.6 57.6 38.3 11.7 1.7 27.6 .60

Melo
PTS FG% 2PT% 3PT% REB BLKS PER TS
24.4 45.3 49.6 33.7 11.0 0.9 27.2 .54

Keep in mind that Bennett carried his team and was hur the last 5-7 games of the year which brought down his stats. Melo played with Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara.
You get the chance to get a talent like Bennett in this draft you take it and run.

If we land the 2nd/3rd pick I'm beginning to think Bennett should be the pick as well...I was in favor of Porter in such a scenario but I believe the team needs to gamble on upside. I'm still horrified at Bennett's effort on defense.

Also one thing, Melo put those numbers up between 18-19. I believe Bennett had a full year more of development to him. Even him Bennett pans out to be a slightly poor mans Melo you still take him. He's still young enough where you might be able to coach out some of the bad tendencies Melo has like terrible shot selection, mediocre D and lackluster playmaking.

[The Consiglieri]

But if you isolate out just the scoring tools he [Beal] demonstrated without caring about the numbers, you'd have seen a picture perfect jump shot with awesome range, tremendous shot selection and IQ, a nice little floater game, smooth dribbles and athletic straight line drives with physical finishing ability--i.e. all of the tools to be a big time scorer in the NBA. Remember all of the incredulity about all of the Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen comparisons Beal drew? He was getting them from all over. There were people who saw the similarities in the tools and people who couldn't see it because what they were thinking about were the numbers.

Yup, an over emphasis on numbers at the expense of an eye test can be a mistake. Last year at this time when some on this board were doing back flips over Jae Crowder "numbers," I consistently argued that after watching Crowder numerous times at Marquette he didn't pass the eye test...at least as far as being a lottery pick was concerned. Thus far, I think that's turning out to be true.

People need to get over Bazz's frosh numbers and recognize that, given his impressive offensive versatility, he's likely to be a very good NBA player.

BTW, I also argued that Beal was a better shooter than his frosh numbers showed and that the Zards should draft him over any player not named Anthony Davis.

+2

I was extremely bothered last year w/the rap Beal and Drummond got by a lot of posters here in Feb/March etc. Beal took a ton of stick for his #'s especially circa November-January (they took a bit of an uptick in Feb-March), and Drummond just took a ton of stick in general.

I've always thought that a single year is always small sample size, both because of how small a career it is (20-35 games or so, minutes creeping up, or starting high), and because of the drastic differences between high school and college environments for kids, particularly kids from urban environments (going from say, playing basketball for Castlemont High School in Oakland, or Skyline, and then going onto St. Mary's, or Santa Clara is absolute night and day, and massively disruptive).

That's why I tend to view great numbers as a freshman as great, and mediocre numbers as a freshman as indicative of nothing in particular, especially if the situation is anything but ideal (UConn last year, UCLA this year, North Teas this year etc). I want to give the player a chance to get acclimatized and figure it out. So when a player like McAdoo has issues, I'm of two minds abut it, on the one hand, he definitely hasn't lived up to expectations, on the other, he's also playing out of position, but with two years in, I'm not gonna give him the same rope as I'd give Drummond, Beal, or Muhammad for struggles.

The key for me is to look into the experiences. I just view metrics as reliable in the pro's as really far more accurate than in college, I don't think they help tell the story nearly so well because in college the differences in competition level are so vast, leaving your home and living on your own so difference, and the things out of a players control are enormous (coaching, roster, environment, the drastic change from high school to college etc).

So when Beal struggled w/his shot for months last year, I didn't think it meant squat, and when Drummond was so uneven as a freshman in a horrible situation at UConn, and Muhammad suffered almost identically, the only thing that seemed worth noting for the latter two was the commonalities, imploding coaching environments, lack of leadership and stability with both teams, injuries, and in both cases the players weren't going to be playing college ball right before their respective seasons started (Drummond because he wasn't going to college until he changed his mind, Muhammad because of the NCAA bogus nonsense).

Maybe it's not helpful, but I just view it as ridiculous to perceive statistics as definitive with players undergoing such dramatic changes in their lives. I definitely can see why stats are relevant, and of course they are, but I also think its not worthwhile to toss a player out of the equation automatically if the stats from a single short college season, are what you have to work with. A year ago, most scouts thought Tony Mitchell was a top 4-8 prospect in college basketball, now he sucks? Was there any major difference in '11-'12 to '12-'13. Well, yes, his head coach, which had turned North Texas into an NCAA Tourney squad bailed, and the team imploded under inferior coaching. Muhammad didn't even think he was going to play this year when the season started because of an NCAA ban, and his coach was an inch away from being canned, and the star player from the '11-'12 season/class was being hounded out of the program throughout that season. Is that ideal? No.

At the end of the day, I just view the stat ripping on freshman as counterproductive, on NBA players, by all mean, on college freshman, I just don't think it's helpful, especially when people simply throw away a player because of some metric stat lines, completely ignoring what was going on in that players life, and in the program while his play was underwhelming.

Is Beal, afterall, the guy who could not find his shot in the first half of his debut in college, and his debut with the wizards, or is he the guy who was tearing it up with Wall by mid-January, and improving his freshman year by several percentage points in feb/march? If you judged him based on the early returns, he couldn't shoot at all. Time proved he could.

I think we can pick and choose who we like better, but not be so definitive about things. I'm too harsh on Zeller because I didn't see enough improvements, and Porter because he reminds me of a lot of players that lacked elite skills, but had a collection of good ones (these guys tend to be league average or worse), I'm probably too easy on Bennett, and Muhammad because I think the athleticism, and strength, and competitiveness at the NBA level wouldn't scare them at all, plus they have NBA skills, that other guys Im less impressed with, don't seem to have at that respective level.

We'll see, I'd just like us to be more reasonable. It's gonna be crazy if after all of this 100 page thread content, EG just trades the pick for some mediocre player.

[The Consiglieri]

But if you isolate out just the scoring tools he [Beal] demonstrated without caring about the numbers, you'd have seen a picture perfect jump shot with awesome range, tremendous shot selection and IQ, a nice little floater game, smooth dribbles and athletic straight line drives with physical finishing ability--i.e. all of the tools to be a big time scorer in the NBA. Remember all of the incredulity about all of the Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen comparisons Beal drew? He was getting them from all over. There were people who saw the similarities in the tools and people who couldn't see it because what they were thinking about were the numbers.

Yup, an over emphasis on numbers at the expense of an eye test can be a mistake. Last year at this time when some on this board were doing back flips over Jae Crowder "numbers," I consistently argued that after watching Crowder numerous times at Marquette he didn't pass the eye test...at least as far as being a lottery pick was concerned. Thus far, I think that's turning out to be true.

People need to get over Bazz's frosh numbers and recognize that, given his impressive offensive versatility, he's likely to be a very good NBA player.

BTW, I also argued that Beal was a better shooter than his frosh numbers showed and that the Zards should draft him over any player not named Anthony Davis.

Just as an over-emphasis on the "eye test" at the expense of the numbers can be a mistake. A good process would include both scouting (which is not the same as "watching") and good statistical analysis.

I agree both ways. I think the eye test fools a lot of us. And it's not remotely scientific or dispassionate, so its entirely unprovable or measurable. Otoh, I have an issue w/stat based determinations on freshman. I think it's unreasonable to ignore the mental make up reality of coping with such a dramatic change in a teenagers life, as going from high school, to college, particularly when they are leaving their home town and going very far away to something utterly unfamiliar. When you add mass instability there, a fired coach, or a soon to be fired coach, say a team w/no leadership (UConn in '11-'12), it makes it even worse.

Sometimes we forget that these are kids, and that their human, and prone to handling things differently, especially massive environmental changes. I remember being home sick, and I only moved from san mateo to Berkeley (about 40 miles northwest of san mateo in the bay area). I can only imagine how brutal it might be for a young kid to leave everything and everyone he knows for something totally unfamiliar. Add in all the other vagaries, NCAA harassment, not knowing whats gonna happen, etc. Pure #'s to me tend to be more reliable in the pro's where all thngs are relatively equal. Same opponents, same league, same caliber of players w/o drastic changes. Seems far more predictive than college, especially now w/college not only different in terms of strength of conferences, but also sometimes littered with freshman AAU superstars, other times laden with 4th and 5th year seniors. Doesn't seem highly comparable to me. But it's still hugely valuable.

[BigA]

*sticky*

This will probably stay near the top even without being stickied, but to the mods: pretty please?

[Dark Faze]

Bennett has the potential to be a good offensive player. I think he's going to be like a more perimeter oriented Millsap. I think that still equates to a bench player though, and without Olynyks versatility as a PF/C but with added tweener concerns.

As for Drummond, his athletic tools are probably the best I've seen from a big. Lens in comparison are merely average, that's just how ridiculous Drummond was/is as an athlete.

And even then Drummonds sample size is terrible. There's still a decent chance that he never looks as good as he did briefly this year.

Bench Player? You are seriously underestamating Bennett.

Per 40 Stats for Freshman year for AB and Melo

Bennett
PTS FG% 2PT% 3PT% REB BLKS PER TS
23.2 52.6 57.6 38.3 11.7 1.7 27.6 .60

Melo
PTS FG% 2PT% 3PT% REB BLKS PER TS
24.4 45.3 49.6 33.7 11.0 0.9 27.2 .54

Keep in mind that Bennett carried his team and was hur the last 5-7 games of the year which brought down his stats. Melo played with Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara.
You get the chance to get a talent like Bennett in this draft you take it and run.

He's a terrible defender with no true position. Those stats are irrelevant. Just look at Mike Beasley and Derrick Williams if you want to think that stats transition to the NBA 1 for 1.

[Dark Faze]

What do you guys think about letting Webster go and trying to pick up Tony Allen and drafting CJM?

I'm just really intrigued by a lineup of Wall/Allen/Ariza in terms of defense and easy transition baskets (beal still starts) with CJM playing a sixth man role off the bench.

[LyricalRico]

What do you guys think about letting Webster go and trying to pick up Tony Allen and drafting CJM?

I'm just really intrigued by a lineup of Wall/Allen/Ariza in terms of defense and easy transition baskets (beal still starts) with CJM playing a sixth man role off the bench.

Where does Beal fit in? I would much rather go forward with a Wall/Beal backcourt, re-up Webster, and draft a big.

[hands11]

McCollum's dribble pull up is gorgeous. The prettiest shot in the class. Carmelo-esque. He's got a perfect jumper and a nasty crossover.

He'd be an elite prospect if he were a neater fit at one position. Stronger than Steph Curry but not as crafty nor as good a shooter. Bigger and stronger than Trey Burke but not a pure PG like him, not a natural facilitator. Not as electric an athlete as Damian Lillard. And not as big and athletic as a pure SG like Beal.

He should still be really good though. We'd be tiny, but lineups with him and Wall and Beal would be so incredibly potent offensively. We could shell teams like the Warriors, and if we had a pair of outstanding defensive bigs, we might just be able to get by on the other end.

Tony Parker nasty.

Wall/Pierre Jackson
Beal/CJM, Temple

We would be set at guard for a good while

Add someone like Mike Muscala or Erick Murphy with the other pick, and they would have added some really nice depth.

Then they could just focus on figuring out C and PF moving forward. And with all that scoring, they wouldn't need a stud center. Just a really solid defensive center like a Withey type.

Lots of ways to slice it this year. They could go center first instead. Len, Mike Muscala, Murphy or if they luck out, they could land Otto in an attempt to lock up SF long term. Those plans make a lot of sense also.

As long as they have Wall and Beal signed and healthy, they have a lot more options now.