NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Nivek]

Well now I"m curious to see how Reggie Bullock stacks up in YODA because to my eye test the two stacks up very similarly - better even potentially if considering physical aspects.

Bullock rates as a mid-first round pick in YODA. Green rated better than that -- a top 10 pick, if I recall correctly. If Bullock really does fall to the 2nd round, I think he'd be a steal there.

[FAH1223]

We've done a great job helping each other on team defense," Green said. "But obviously we know what kind of player LeBron is. We know he's not at his best right now. He mised a lot of shots he normally makes. We're sure in Game 4 he's going to come out a lot different.

"With LeBron, it's not just us stopping him. He's kind of stopping himself out there."

Green was asked on follow-up how James is stopping himself.

"Obviously we're making it tough for him. But you guys have seen him all year at his best, and how he can perform. Obviously he's not doing that right now. I don't know what it is."

Spurs are playing mind games with LeBron. Pop praised him after Game 1 and now LeBron's former teammate says this (which is true).

Hmm. Could he be tired?

[GhostsOfGil]

Tony Parker could be out for game 4 with a hamstring injury. Ouch.

[FAH1223]

Tony Parker could be out for game 4 with a hamstring injury. Ouch.

Judging from this tweet and Parker's post game comments, there doesn't seem to be any doubt that he'll play tomorrow. Parker also was late for pre-game preparations.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Buck_SA/status/344695369038454784[/tweet]

[Higga]

It makes me mad watching Leonard play Lebron so well. Had we drafted him, we could have been the Kingslayers of the East with Wall/Beal/Leonard/lotto pick this year. Leonard is basically as close to a Lebron stopper as there is in the league.

I still think the series is gonna go 6+ though. The Parker injury worries me. They might just sit him Game 4 to try to have a fully healthy team to win Game 5 and go up 3-2 heading back to South Beach.

Lebron needs to take games over. Wade and Bosh can't play. Lebron is reverting back to the 2011 form vs. Dallas when he hid from the spotlight. Like Troop 41 says in Do The John Wall: "You distribute but ain't neva got the heart to finish."

[FAH1223]

It makes me mad watching Leonard play Lebron so well. Had we drafted him, we could have been the Kingslayers of the East with Wall/Beal/Leonard/lotto pick this year. Leonard is basically as close to a Lebron stopper as there is in the league.

I still think the series is gonna go 6+ though. The Parker injury worries me. They might just sit him Game 4 to try to have a fully healthy team to win Game 5 and go up 3-2 heading back to South Beach.

Lebron needs to take games over. Wade and Bosh can't play. Lebron is reverting back to the 2011 form vs. Dallas when he hid from the spotlight. Like Troop 41 says in Do The John Wall: "You distribute but ain't neva got the heart to finish."

I doubt Parker sits. He isn't Derrick Rose. He isn't missing a chance to go 3-1. At the very least he needs to be in there to distribute and play ball control. Young Corey Joseph ain't ready to take that spot in and I doubt Pop will use Patty Mills or T-Mac to handle the rock. Plus, Ginobili is very prone to turnovers to be the primary ball handler.. he is doing too much in terms of threading the needle or trying to make the spectacular gamble.

[AFM]

T-Mac gonna take over the next game. I'm calling vintage 2004 T-Mac 40 pts/10 boards.

[verbal8]

A good article by Mike Prada on the Spurs defense of LeBron:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/6/12/4 ... iclebottom

The Spurs have defended James by daring him to do what he doesn't want to do on every single possession: shoot from the perimeter. San Antonio knows that James has improved his perimeter shot significantly since he entered the league, and they don't care. It's not always about a player's shooting percentage, it's how much they make themselves into a threat by shooting confidently. James has often been a reluctant perimeter shooter since coming to Miami, choosing instead to enforce his will around the basket. He's heard all those who wondered why he settled for so many jumpers in Cleveland given his size and adjusted his game accordingly.

[FAH1223]

I wonder if the Spurs play a full 2-3 zone tonight. They have been zoning up LeBron exclusively..

[pancakes3]

Box and 1 because you know Lebron's going to try and force it.

[FAH1223]

Box and 1 because you know Lebron's going to try and force it.

True. He's going to try to rumble his way through Leonard and to the rim.

BTW, the crew for tonight favors the Heat signifcantly:
Scott Foster
Mike Callahan
Bill Kennedy

Foster has single handily helped the Heat in two of their Ws this post season. He also got close with Game 4 in the MIA-IND series calling all those techs. Plus that game when he called like 7 technicals against Chicago.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

T-Mac gonna take over the next game. I'm calling vintage 2004 T-Mac 40 pts/10 boards.

If he can give the Spurs 10-12 strong minutes, and around 5 points and 3 assists -- without turnovers and defensive lapses -- T Mac can help SA win.

I think he does have secondary playmaking left. McGrady and Blair seem like they can contribute if called.

[FAH1223]

If he can give the Spurs 12 minutes and around 5 points and 4 assists -- without turnovers and defensive lapses -- T Mac can help SA win.

I think he does have secondary playmaking left. McGrady and Blair seem like they can contribute if called.

Boris Diaw didn't play at all the other night. It seems Pop is going with Duncan-Splitter with Bonner off the bench who has been cold. Blair could definitely provide some inside scoring vs. Miami. He's lost a bit of weight too.

[FAH1223]

*This is the 9th Finals game for Scott Foster, who has worked every Finals since 2008 and is one of only 5 active officials to have also worked a Finals Game 7 (along with Joey Crawford, Danny Crawford, Dick Bavetta, and Eddie F. Rush). This is the 13th Finals game for Callahan (who has worked all but one Finals since 2003 (he missed in 2008)) and the 5th Finals game for Bill Kennedy.

Game 4 will be the 11th Playoff game that Scott Foster and Bill Kennedy have worked together in 2013; Foster has worked all of the games that Kennedy has worked and has only worked 2 games without Kennedy (Game 2 of MIA/CHI and Game 7 of MIA/IND). Foster and Callahan have only worked one game together in these playoffs -- Game 7 of MIA/IND. This crew, as that would suggest, has not worked a game together in these playoffs.

SPURS
Scott Foster
1-1 in 2013 Playoffs (L at GST (Gm. 4); W v. MEM (Gm. 2)); 10-6 all-time (3-2 in the last 2 playoff years); 5-3 all-time at home
home teams are 8-4 in the 2013 playoffs with Foster

Mike Callahan
2-0 in 2013 Playoffs (W v. LAL (Gm. 2); W v. GST (Gm. 1)); 16-9 all-time (2-1 in the last 2 playoff years); 12-4 all-time at home
home teams are 9-2 in the 2013 playoffs with Callahan

Bill Kennedy
1-1 in 2013 Playoffs (L at GST (Gm. 4); W v. MEM (Gm. 2)); 5-5 all-time (2-2 in the last 2 playoff years); 4-1 all-time at home
home teams are 6-4 in the 2013 playoffs with Kennedy

MIAMI
Foster
3-1 in 2013 Playoffs (W at MIL (Gm. 3); W v. CHI (Gm. 2); L v. IND (Gm. 2); W v. IND (Gm. 7)); 15-5 since 2004 (11-3 in Big 3 era); 6-3 on road (4-1 in Big 3 era)

Callahan
3-0 in 2013 Playoffs (W v. CHI (Gm. 5); W at IND (Gm. 3); W v. IND (Gm. 7)); 14-3 since 2004 (9-2 in Big 3 era); 5-2 on road (3-2 in Big 3 era)

Kennedy
1-1 in 2013 Playoffs (W at MIL (Gm. 3); L v. IND (Gm. 2)); 5-5 since 2005 (4-4 in Big 3 era); 2-3 on road (2-3 in Big 3 era)

This is also the same crew that in addition to giving Chicago all those techs in Game 2 vs. MIA also called Game 2 of the WCF between SA-MEM and gave Tony Allen the flagrant foul and it got Memphis to send it to OT

The Heat will get 30 free throws tonight and maybe more if they need it. Spurs will get maybe 10 if at that. Duncan will be in foul trouble as will Leonard early in this game. They will really need their shooters again tonight. Plus Parker being less than 100% isn't a good omen.

[Higga]

They're talking about Lebron and his legacy(at least in Miami). He pretty much has to carry his team to a win in at least one if not both wins in San Antonio if he wants a second title in Miami, because it's unlikely they win it next year with a declining Wade and Bosh and not much else around him. I can't disagree. We all heard "not one not two not three" but now it's looking like it may just be one. We shall see though, I'm still not counting Miami out. Pretty much has to win tonight though.

[FAH1223]

They're talking about Lebron and his legacy(at least in Miami). He pretty much has to carry his team to a win in at least one if not both wins in San Antonio if he wants a second title in Miami, because it's unlikely they win it next year with a declining Wade and Bosh and not much else around him. I can't disagree. We all heard "not one not two not three" but now it's looking like it may just be one. We shall see though, I'm still not counting Miami out. Pretty much has to win tonight though.

Miami isn't losing with Scott Foster reffing.

[dobrojim]

LeBron scored 15 points on horrid shooting. The one stretch where he scored 9 points and shot well? Kawhi Leonard was on the bench.

Amazing defense.

Where's Barely when you need him?

Was watching espn and the posted a chart that showed how off LBJ has
been in the Finals compared to at other times. That said, for most players,
his numbers would be quite satisfactory, but not for the #1 player in the world.

Hard to believe the smallish Danny Green snuff his shot twice and made
another great play on him too in transition where the ref mistakenly gave
the Heat the ball after Green had forced LBJ into a TO.

All that said, it wouldn't shock me at all if SAN won tonight to go up 3-1
then MIA won 3 straight.

SAN is capable of going into a funk and/or being 'figured out'. Remember last
year they swept to 2-0 in the WCF only to then lose 4 straight to OKC. Not saying
it will happen but am saying it could happen.

[dobrojim]

Keep in mind that offensive rebounding is only one of the four factors. The most important factor is shooting from the floor by a very large margin. The other three categories (rebounding, turnovers and getting to the line) kinda trade places. This season, the order of importance (correlation with efficiency differential) with relative weight:

- efg differential -- 10
- ftm/fga differential -- 5
- turnover differential -- 3
- rebounding differential -- 2

Here's where the Heat ranked this season:

- efg differential -- 1
- rebounding differential -- 30
- turnover differential -- 9
- ftm/fga differential -- 7

And the Spurs:

- efg differential -- 3
- rebounding differential -- 26
- turnover differential -- 15
- ftm/fga differential -- 18

That "something else" that's going on is that the Heat and Spurs shoot the ball extremely well (1st and 2nd in offensive efg) and do a good job of making the other team miss.

so what I've been focusing on is how important 3 pt shooting/defending has become.
Seems to me that that is a key component of efg dif. Thinking back to DAL-MIA, DAL
won largely on the back of their 3 pt shooting. MIA-OKC, same thing. Last 2 games in
this Finals, same thing again. Whoever makes their 3s usually wins. Yeah I know SAN
actually shot well from 3 in game 2 but they didn't stop MIA from shooting well from 3
in that game.

Hitting 3s and defending 3s can cover a multitude of other sins.

edit to add - at the risk of stating the obvious, of course 3 pt shooting is important
since made shots are worth 50% more than made 2s. But I'm guessing that over
the last several years, teams and players have worked harder and gotten better
at taking advantage of that fact. It's become a more significant part of most
team's offenses. I bet 3 pt attempts and makes are higher for virtually all teams over
the last decade.

[dobrojim]

It makes me mad watching Leonard play Lebron so well. Had we drafted him, we could have been the Kingslayers of the East with Wall/Beal/Leonard/lotto pick this year. Leonard is basically as close to a Lebron stopper as there is in the league.

I still think the series is gonna go 6+ though. The Parker injury worries me. They might just sit him Game 4 to try to have a fully healthy team to win Game 5 and go up 3-2 heading back to South Beach.

Lebron needs to take games over. Wade and Bosh can't play. Lebron is reverting back to the 2011 form vs. Dallas when he hid from the spotlight. Like Troop 41 says in Do The John Wall: "You distribute but ain't neva got the heart to finish."

at the risk of defending EG or seeming to, Ariza does a pretty decent job on LBJ.

[FAH1223]

Spo might start Mike Miller and Lebron could start in the Center position