Jonathan Isaac is looking huge compared to last season.

[zaymon]

i'm wondering how accurate is the kirlenko comp? like at the same age

At 22, AK47 was an All-Star for his 1st and only time, he averaged 16/8/3 + 4.7 stocks. Isaac already is a better 3pt shooter, but Kirilenko gets more points from the FT line.

Some people are saying he might average 25/10 (lol), he can improve for sure, but it's not like it's a sure thing, that was AK's best season (at 22), so the same thing can happen to Isaac, but since I always liked AK, I wouldn't be sad if he doesn't improve in terms of numbers.

AK made All-Defensive 3 times (2x 2nd + a 1st).

I could see him averaging 22 and 12. Right now Evan and Vuc get most of the usage. Vuc also sits under the basket on defense to gobble up all the easy defensive rebounds..

If you bumped up Isaac's usage another 1/3 plus improved offensive moves, 22 pts isn't out of the realm of possibility.

AK47 had terrible injuries which limited his career. Plus Isaac is a late bloomer, growth wise. Meaning Isaac's body isn't fully developed yet. AK47 was a finished product body wise when he came into the league.

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I dont think JI ppg is all that relevant. He is not a leading scorer and he will never be, thats not his game. He is all nba level defender with nice touch around the rim, developing 3 point shot and some pull up midrange ability. He is not particulary good with ball in his hands, he cant make advanced reads and passes. Lets not create another chucker from perfect modern STAR role player.

[j-ragg]

At 22, AK47 was an All-Star for his 1st and only time, he averaged 16/8/3 + 4.7 stocks. Isaac already is a better 3pt shooter, but Kirilenko gets more points from the FT line.

Some people are saying he might average 25/10 (lol), he can improve for sure, but it's not like it's a sure thing, that was AK's best season (at 22), so the same thing can happen to Isaac, but since I always liked AK, I wouldn't be sad if he doesn't improve in terms of numbers.

AK made All-Defensive 3 times (2x 2nd + a 1st).

I could see him averaging 22 and 12. Right now Evan and Vuc get most of the usage. Vuc also sits under the basket on defense to gobble up all the easy defensive rebounds..

If you bumped up Isaac's usage another 1/3 plus improved offensive moves, 22 pts isn't out of the realm of possibility.

AK47 had terrible injuries which limited his career. Plus Isaac is a late bloomer, growth wise. Meaning Isaac's body isn't fully developed yet. AK47 was a finished product body wise when he came into the league.

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I dont think JI ppg is all that relevant. He is not a leading scorer and he will never be, thats not his game. He is all nba level defender with nice touch around the rim, developing 3 point shot and some pull up midrange ability. He is not particulary good with ball in his hands, he cant make advanced reads and passes. Lets not create another chucker from perfect modern STAR role player.

Agreed. Don't see him ever being 20ppg+, but he obviously doesn't need to be.

[basketballRob]

I could see him averaging 22 and 12. Right now Evan and Vuc get most of the usage. Vuc also sits under the basket on defense to gobble up all the easy defensive rebounds..

If you bumped up Isaac's usage another 1/3 plus improved offensive moves, 22 pts isn't out of the realm of possibility.

AK47 had terrible injuries which limited his career. Plus Isaac is a late bloomer, growth wise. Meaning Isaac's body isn't fully developed yet. AK47 was a finished product body wise when he came into the league.

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I dont think JI ppg is all that relevant. He is not a leading scorer and he will never be, thats not his game. He is all nba level defender with nice touch around the rim, developing 3 point shot and some pull up midrange ability. He is not particulary good with ball in his hands, he cant make advanced reads and passes. Lets not create another chucker from perfect modern STAR role player.

Agreed. Don't see him ever being 20ppg+, but he obviously doesn't need to be.

Who knows what Isaac will do. He'll definitely improve.

Kirilenko had knee and back issues in 2004-2005 that limited his career. To say Isaac isn't going to improve because Kirilenko didn't, isn't taking that into consideration. Plus Isaac is a way better shooter.


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[Knightro]

Isaac just doesn’t have enough advanced ball handling skills right now to be a high end scorer.

His PPG *should* increase over the years as the Magic run more plays for him and utilize him more in the offense, but his lack of handle definitely limits his overall upside offensively.

He shows flashes here and there, attacking overly aggressive closeouts and things like that, but typically by Year 3 you have a pretty good idea if a player can consistently beat people off the dribble. Isaac just isn’t that guy.

It’s hard to be a high end scorer if you don’t draw a lot of FTs and it’s hard to draw a lot of free throws if you can’t get all the way to the rim with your handle.

But all of that is totally ok! Because I think JI’s jumper is going to continue to get better and better and the Magic are going to be forced to use him more offensively as a screener, cutter, rim runner, midpost guy as players like Fournier exit the roster in the coming years.

[zaymon]

I dont think JI ppg is all that relevant. He is not a leading scorer and he will never be, thats not his game. He is all nba level defender with nice touch around the rim, developing 3 point shot and some pull up midrange ability. He is not particulary good with ball in his hands, he cant make advanced reads and passes. Lets not create another chucker from perfect modern STAR role player.

Agreed. Don't see him ever being 20ppg+, but he obviously doesn't need to be.

Who knows what Isaac will do. He'll definitely improve.

Kirilenko had knee and back issues in 2004-2005 that limited his career. To say Isaac isn't going to improve because Kirilenko didn't, isn't taking that into consideration.

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I never wrote JI wont improve becouse he has desire and work ethic to do it. I wrote he wont be a lead scorer becouse he doesnt have character and skill set to do it. He likes to support others, he is not a natural ball handler. He will score becouse he is long and quick but just compare him to Fultz. Fultz have instinct with the ball that Isaac has on defense. What makes you think JI will average 20+ pts a game ? Not a pure shooter like Durant, not as natural ball handler as Siakam, not a playmaker like Giannis. Forcing him into lead ball handler is a waste of natural talent.

[MagicFan101]

I never wrote JI wont improve becouse he has desire and work ethic to do it. I wrote he wont be a lead scorer becouse he doesnt have character and skill set to do it.

My question is, why does "lead scorer" have to be the measuring stick?

Look back through the team stats last year and nearly every single team had at least 3 players averaging 15+ ppg if not multiple 20+ ppg players.

Orlando had:
Vuc - 20.8 ppg
AG - 16.0 ppg
Evan - 15.1 ppg
Ross - 15.1 ppg
...
Isaac - 9.6 ppg


Who is to say Isaac can't hit the 15-18 ppg mark as the 2nd or 3rd option while being a 1st team all-nba defensive talent?

The kid is going to collect A LOT of All-Star invites with that while never once being labeled as the "lead scorer."

[zaymon]

I never wrote JI wont improve becouse he has desire and work ethic to do it. I wrote he wont be a lead scorer becouse he doesnt have character and skill set to do it.

My question is, why does "lead scorer" have to be the measuring stick?

Look back through the team stats last year and nearly every single team had at least 3 players averaging 15+ ppg if not multiple 20+ ppg players.

Orlando had:
Vuc - 20.8 ppg
AG - 16.0 ppg
Evan - 15.1 ppg
Ross - 15.1 ppg
...
Isaac - 9.6 ppg


Who is to say Isaac can't hit the 15-18 ppg mark as the 2nd or 3rd option while being a 1st team all-nba defensive talent?

The kid is going to collect A LOT of All-Star invites with that while never once being labeled as the "lead scorer."

What i meant is that points per game arent exactly point of emphasis for him imo. I dont think high volume will suit him. Maybe he will score more but i dont think ball should be in his hands a lot

[PrimeThyme]

Isaac just doesn’t have enough advanced ball handling skills right now to be a high end scorer.

His PPG *should* increase over the years as the Magic run more plays for him and utilize him more in the offense, but his lack of handle definitely limits his overall upside offensively.

He shows flashes here and there, attacking overly aggressive closeouts and things like that, but typically by Year 3 you have a pretty good idea if a player can consistently beat people off the dribble. Isaac just isn’t that guy.

It’s hard to be a high end scorer if you don’t draw a lot of FTs and it’s hard to draw a lot of free throws if you can’t get all the way to the rim with your handle.

But all of that is totally ok! Because I think JI’s jumper is going to continue to get better and better and the Magic are going to be forced to use him more offensively as a screener, cutter, rim runner, midpost guy as players like Fournier exit the roster in the coming years.

I'm pretty content with Isaac never developing into an elite shot creator at this point. I think he can still top out as a 17-19ppg guy with his current skill set and be a very effective offensive player for us. Especially as his jumper continues to develop. His defensive ability has the potential to catapult him to multiple All defensive and all NBA selections. Guys with that skillset like Gobert for instance, generally don't get many All-star selections but It's definitely in the realm of possibilities.

Just out of curiosity, are you a bit higher on Isaac now then you were a year ago? Not that you were ever low on him per se as ive always seen you as one of his supporters, but I remember having debates with you over whether or not his ceiling was higher then Battier's last season when you made that comp. I'm still firmly in the camp that he will end up as a better Offensive and defensive player then Battier was. His size and ability to guard 1-5 will make him the more elite and versatile defender. I think still think his skillset offensively is better as well.

[MagicFan101]

I never wrote JI wont improve becouse he has desire and work ethic to do it. I wrote he wont be a lead scorer becouse he doesnt have character and skill set to do it.

My question is, why does "lead scorer" have to be the measuring stick?

Look back through the team stats last year and nearly every single team had at least 3 players averaging 15+ ppg if not multiple 20+ ppg players.

Orlando had:
Vuc - 20.8 ppg
AG - 16.0 ppg
Evan - 15.1 ppg
Ross - 15.1 ppg
...
Isaac - 9.6 ppg


Who is to say Isaac can't hit the 15-18 ppg mark as the 2nd or 3rd option while being a 1st team all-nba defensive talent?

The kid is going to collect A LOT of All-Star invites with that while never once being labeled as the "lead scorer."

What i meant is that points per game arent exactly point of emphasis for him imo. I dont think high volume will suit him. Maybe he will score more but i dont think ball should be in his hands a lot

Isaac is averaging 1.366 ppa (points per shot attempt) thanks to leading the team in 2PT% and FT%.

In comparison Vuc is at 1.10 ppa and Evan is at 1.24 ppa.

So, like lead scorer, "high volume" is another label I don't care about here. Isaac is an efficient scorer, not a volume scorer or isolation scorer.

What you're really trying to say is that Isaac's efficiency would not scale up to a more prominent role. I agree. But how often do we see defenses collapse on Vuc or Evan with an outlet to AG for a terrible 3-pt attempt? Send one or two of those a game towards Isaac instead. Also, give Isaac a little more time in the 2nd unit alongside DJ and Ross. Don't ask anything more of Isaac than he is doing now. Just be what you are while others send a few extra outlets your way over AG/Ross and SHAZAAM! You have your 15+ ppg.

Now, normally I am not a fan of forcing a stat stuffing effort for one individual over another. But the shooting % justify this as a positive for the team in this case.

[basketballRob]

Agreed. Don't see him ever being 20ppg+, but he obviously doesn't need to be.

Who knows what Isaac will do. He'll definitely improve.

Kirilenko had knee and back issues in 2004-2005 that limited his career. To say Isaac isn't going to improve because Kirilenko didn't, isn't taking that into consideration.

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I never wrote JI wont improve becouse he has desire and work ethic to do it. I wrote he wont be a lead scorer becouse he doesnt have character and skill set to do it. He likes to support others, he is not a natural ball handler. He will score becouse he is long and quick but just compare him to Fultz. Fultz have instinct with the ball that Isaac has on defense. What makes you think JI will average 20+ pts a game ? Not a pure shooter like Durant, not as natural ball handler as Siakam, not a playmaker like Giannis. Forcing him into lead ball handler is a waste of natural talent.

What's he averaging 12 on 16% usage in low mpg?

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[Knightro]

Just out of curiosity, are you a bit higher on Isaac now then you were a year ago? Not that you were ever low on him per se as ive always seen you as one of his supporters, but I remember having debates with you over whether or not his ceiling was higher then Battier's last season when you made that comp. I'm still firmly in the camp that he will end up as a better Offensive and defensive player then Battier was. His size and ability to guard 1-5 will make him the more elite and versatile defender. I think still think his skillset offensively is better as well.

It was never meant to be a true apples to apples comparison because Isaac is more of a natural big who can play on the wing whereas Battier was a straight up wing, but I do still think you're underrating Shane a little bit.

At his best, he was a +2.4 OBPM and +3.1 DBPM guy. That's *really* good. Battier's offensive game really devolved once he got to Houston. He basically became a straight up spot shooter and nothing else. But in Memphis when he was younger he was able to do a whole lot more.

All that said...

Isaac clearly at this point has more overall defensive upside from a shot blocking and rim protection perspective than Battier ever did.

If Isaac can ever be a 2.5 OBPM guy, we'll have a legitimate superstar on our hands.

[jezzerinho]

I believe there are some very telling cues from his defensive game that suggest he can be more than competent offensively.

He's not some heavy-footed lug who bullies and hassles opponents in the post. He's not a guy who has a ridiculous physical mismatch over the guys he blocks (tho he obvs has long arms).

Instead, he wins with incredibly active feet, very good mobility for a guy his size, serious hand-eye coordination court intelligence and preternatural anticipation.

I think it would be somewhat naïve to think he can develop those defensive gifts and not be able to develop some complementary offensive skills.

It doesn't make sense to me that he won't have a decent O game. It's not like he's limited in some way that would deny him the chance to become competent as a shooter or be a force as a slasher.

Clearly he has the ethic, the smarts and the athleticism. I believe it's just a question of time.

[yoyojw17]

I believe there are some very telling cues from his defensive game that suggest he can be more than competent offensively.

He's not some heavy-footed lug who bullies and hassles opponents in the post. He's not a guy who has a ridiculous physical mismatch over the guys he blocks (tho he obvs has long arms).

Instead, he wins with incredibly active feet, very good mobility for a guy his size, serious hand-eye coordination court intelligence and preternatural anticipation.

I think it would be somewhat naïve to think he can develop those defensive gifts and not be able to develop some complementary offensive skills.

It doesn't make sense to me that he won't have a decent O game. It's not like he's limited in some way that would deny him the chance to become competent as a shooter or be a force as a slasher.

Clearly he has the ethic, the smarts and the athleticism. I believe it's just a question of time.

Just dumbing it down to raw stats over the last 3 seasons... he is making exponential growth on the offensive end...in literally every aspect, i know we're only 9 games into the season... and 9 games in where the team is only noooooow getting it together. Sky is the limit for this kid.

[PrimeThyme]

It was never meant to be a true apples to apples comparison because Isaac is more of a natural big who can play on the wing whereas Battier was a straight up wing, but I do still think you're underrating Shane a little bit.

At his best, he was a +2.4 OBPM and +3.1 DBPM guy. That's *really* good. Battier's offensive game really devolved once he got to Houston. He basically became a straight up spot shooter and nothing else. But in Memphis when he was younger he was able to do a whole lot more.

All that said...

Isaac clearly at this point has more overall defensive upside from a shot blocking and rim protection perspective than Battier ever did.

If Isaac can ever be a 2.5 OBPM guy, we'll have a legitimate superstar on our hands.

I mean it's possible I suppose. Outside of his mirage rookie season where he was force-fed FGA's he never eclipsed more than 10 ppg in a season though. He also was never a 2.4 OBPM and 3.1 DBPM guy in the same season. He had a 1.0 obpm for his career (only eclipsed 2.0 twice) and had a 1.9 dbpm for his career. I think he topped out in his prime with an overall bpm of 4.0 (.9 obpm 3.1 dbpm). Only two all defensive selections for his career, no all NBA selections, and no all-star selections either though.

Battier was also a 4-year college guy and came into the league at an older age then Isaac is now. I will be quite surprised if Isaac isn't posting positive OBPM numbers by the time he is 25 or 26 too.

I understand the advanced stats argument you are making though. I just think Isaac is going to be a more impactful player on both sides of the court and should be a perennial all-defensive team type of player with the potential to win a DPOY award and some all-NBA selections.

[Knightro]

I'm just of the opinion that ball handling typically is not something that improves tremendously over time.

It's not like shooting where you can relentless drill it into muscle memory. It's much more of a natural feel skill. IMO you can either naturally handle the ball or you can't handle the ball.

I just don't see Isaac as a natural ball handler which ultimately limits his overall offensive upside. But I do think he can continue to develop as a shooter which is all he really needs to do given his defensive prowess and his ability to do things as cutter and in transition.

[Knightro]

[I understand the advanced stats argument you are making though. I just think Isaac is going to be a more impactful player on both sides of the court and should be a perennial all-defensive team type of player with the potential to win a DPOY award and some all-NBA selections.

I agree with you.

I think Isaac is going to make multiple All-NBA Defensive teams.

If he can combine that defensive ability with like 8-9 RPG and 40% 3PT, we'll all be VERY happy fans.

[RookieStar]

This question might be waaaay out in the ball park but please humor me. Every Season JI starts with say.. XXX weight right? But at the end he tends to lose like 10lbs. So will this effect his defensive ability/plays especially WHEN (lol) we get into the playoffs?

Like for example, right now at the beginning of the season where he is.. 230ish lbs( am I correct) it obviously helps him and he can muscle bump SF/PF and even lighter C (obviously not the Joel/Nurkic range). However when he loses those said 10lbs at the ending part of the season, will he lose his ability to do so? Like he will get pushed around by PFs who are in the 240lbs range?

[Knightro]

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[OrlandO]

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Siakam wasn't even in the league at Isaac's current age... and he averaged like 5 points his first two seasons in toronto...

[ezzzp]

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I'd like to see JI get more offensive possessions

...but Prada's comment is way off.

Siakam developed under Gentry; who ran an even more conservative and rigid system. On top of that he was playing for a team with deep playoff aspirations. He absolutely did not get to "play freely and make mistakes"... some reporters say the darnedest things.

In fact, at JI's current age (22) Siakam was a rookie in the G-League for the first 1/3 of the season and when he got called up he played a very small role.

Siakam
(22) 55g at 15.6 mpg: 12.9 USG / 11.0 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 13th on Raptors)
(23) 81g at 20.7 mpg: 15.4 USG / 21.5 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 6th on Raptors)
(24) 80g at 31.8 mpg: 20.5 USG / 31.4 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 4th on Raptors)
(25) 9g at 35.4 mpg: 30.7 USG / 42.4 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 1st on Raptors)

Isaac:
(20) 27g at 19.8 mpg: 14.9 USG / 14.9 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 14th on Magic)
(21) 73g at 26.5 mpg: 16.0 USG / 22.3 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 5th on Magic)
(22) 10g at 30.2 mpg: 17.2 USG / 23.2 Front Ct Touches pg (ranked 4th on Magic)