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70sFan wrote:

iggymcfrack wrote:In what world is that the best Paul seasons?

Aren't 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2014 among his best seasons?

2006, 2007, and 2010 are maybe the 3 worst seasons of his career until last year.

So the sample contains 3 weaker Paul seasons and 5 of his best, looks quite representative to me.

Meanwhile, 2006-2010 is Kobe's best 5 year stretch. The only decline year there for Kobe is 2014 which doesn't even count since he only played 6 games.

It also includes 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2005. I also wouldn't say that 2011-13 isn't decline years for Kobe.

Also, listing CP3's rookie year, but not 2012 or 2013 is massively LOL-worthy.

I can list them as well if you wish:

2012: Kobe 55th, Paul 11th
2013: Kobe 84th, Paul 7th

Again, this database show no evidences that Kobe is "not on the level of Chris Paul". Kobe consistently ranked inside top 6 in RAPM in his best years. His early career RAPM isn't nearly as strong, but his best seasons look actually notably better and more consistent than the best pre-2014 Paul seasons.

RAPM is also a rate-metric. Even if we're taking it as gospel there's no excuse for not looking at volume too.

Kobe averaged 5 more regular season mpg and 3 more postseason mpg playing marginally fewer regular season games and 36% more playoff games.

70sFan wrote:

iggymcfrack wrote:In what world is that the best Paul seasons?

Aren't 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2014 among his best seasons?

2006, 2007, and 2010 are maybe the 3 worst seasons of his career until last year.

So the sample contains 3 weaker Paul seasons and 5 of his best, looks quite representative to me.

Meanwhile, 2006-2010 is Kobe's best 5 year stretch. The only decline year there for Kobe is 2014 which doesn't even count since he only played 6 games.

It also includes 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2005. I also wouldn't say that 2011-13 isn't decline years for Kobe.

Also, listing CP3's rookie year, but not 2012 or 2013 is massively LOL-worthy.

I can list them as well if you wish:

2012: Kobe 55th, Paul 11th
2013: Kobe 84th, Paul 7th

Again, this database show no evidences that Kobe is "not on the level of Chris Paul". Kobe consistently ranked inside top 6 in RAPM in his best years. His early career RAPM isn't nearly as strong, but his best seasons look actually notably better and more consistent than the best pre-2014 Paul seasons.

When we were discussing the best player never to win a ring the other day and comparing West and Paul, I said that I thought ‘08, ‘09, ‘13, ‘15, ‘16, ‘17 were Paul's best seasons. And honestly, part of the reason it was tough to determine Paul's peak is that '08 and '09 were the best box years, but he had better impact seasons later when he was a better defender. From an impact perspective, 2013 is the only year I'd consider one of his top 4 seasons.

I'd say yes easily for me. I have him in the 11-15 range.

If someone has him in the top 10, I wouldn't necessarily object either. I can see arguments for that.

Not top ten. No case.

11-15 currently is fine.

Not far into the future he is 15-20.

Peaks by a thing I touched on earlier (5 year RAPM * # of possessions played / 100). Using: https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

Didn't use the '97-'01 set as the '97 data was notably incomplete.

Haven't looked at every player I'd like to yet, but expect I've hit most of the top guys. Just listing the top versions of each guy (LeBron takes the top 7 slots for instance).

Notes:
-Didn't adjust runs with shorter seasons, bump em up ~5% if you'd like.
-Approach is notably disfavorable to players with major injuries/missed time mid-prime (Wade notably, others I'm sure)
-Current players could score higher if we had the same dataset through '23 -Giannis/Dame. I'd also strongly expect Jokic/Tatum to join the list, and Embiid/Gobert/Holiday all seem possible.

Top 5 year peak/primes from '97-'21, guys I've found with 2500+ pts in value (if there's any other runs you're particularly interested in feel free to ask or do yourselves)
1. LeBron James '12-'16 5344
2. Tim Duncan '01-'05 4506
3. Stephen Curry '13-'17 4423
4. Kevin Garnett '00-'04 4276
5. Shaquille O'Neal '00-'04 4008
6. Draymond Green '15-'19 3953
7. Kobe Bryant '06-'10 3596
8. Dwyane Wade '06-'10 3432
9. Chris Paul '12-'16 3349
10. Dirk Nowitzki '07-'11 3327
11. James Harden '14-'18 3271
12. Kevin Durant '10-'14 3168
13. Kyle Lowry '15-'19 3063
14. Manu Ginobili '04-'08 3036
15. Rasheed Wallace '00-'04 2832
16. Russell Westbrook '13-'17 2821
17. Paul Pierce '01-'05 2812
18. Giannis Antetokounmpo '17-'21 2773
19. Steve Nash '06-'10 2762
20. Dwight Howard '08-'12 2658
21. John Stockton '98-'02 2555
22. Damian Lillard '17-'21 2525

eminence wrote:Peaks by a thing I touched on earlier (5 year RAPM * # of possessions played / 100). Using: https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

Didn't use the '97-'01 set as the '97 data was notably incomplete.

Haven't looked at every player I'd like to yet, but expect I've hit most of the top guys. Just listing the top versions of each guy (LeBron takes the top 7 slots for instance).

Doesn't KG take 3rd and 5th

OhayoKD wrote:

eminence wrote:Peaks by a thing I touched on earlier (5 year RAPM * # of possessions played / 100). Using: https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

Didn't use the '97-'01 set as the '97 data was notably incomplete.

Haven't looked at every player I'd like to yet, but expect I've hit most of the top guys. Just listing the top versions of each guy (LeBron takes the top 7 slots for instance).

Doesn't KG take 3rd and 5th

In RAPM yes, but not after factoring in # of possessions (KG a bit punished here for playing on poor teams losing out on significant PO minutes, relative to other all-timers).

eminence wrote:Peaks by a thing I touched on earlier (5 year RAPM * # of possessions played / 100). Using: https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

Didn't use the '97-'01 set as the '97 data was notably incomplete.

Haven't looked at every player I'd like to yet, but expect I've hit most of the top guys. Just listing the top versions of each guy (LeBron takes the top 7 slots for instance).

Notes:
-Didn't adjust runs with shorter seasons, bump em up ~5% if you'd like.
-Approach is notably disfavorable to players with major injuries/missed time mid-prime (Wade notably, others I'm sure)
-Current players could score higher if we had the same dataset through '23 -Giannis/Dame. I'd also strongly expect Jokic/Tatum to join the list, and Embiid/Gobert/Holiday all seem possible.

Top 5 year peak/primes from '97-'21, guys I've found with 2500+ pts in value (if there's any other runs you're particularly interested in feel free to ask or do yourselves)
1. LeBron James '12-'16 5344
2. Tim Duncan '01-'05 4506
3. Stephen Curry '13-'17 4423
4. Kevin Garnett '00-'04 4276
5. Shaquille O'Neal '00-'04 4008
6. Draymond Green '15-'19 3953
7. Kobe Bryant '06-'10 3596
8. Dwyane Wade '06-'10 3432
9. Chris Paul '12-'16 3349
10. Dirk Nowitzki '07-'11 3327
11. James Harden '14-'18 3271
12. Kevin Durant '10-'14 3168
13. Kyle Lowry '15-'19 3063
14. Manu Ginobili '04-'08 3036
15. Rasheed Wallace '00-'04 2832
16. Russell Westbrook '13-'17 2821
17. Paul Pierce '01-'05 2812
18. Giannis Antetokounmpo '17-'21 2773
19. Steve Nash '06-'10 2762
20. Dwight Howard '08-'12 2658
21. John Stockton '98-'02 2555
22. Damian Lillard '17-'21 2525

Playing the long game for Draymond I see

MyUniBroDavis wrote:Playing the long game for Draymond I see

I've been found out.

Even I'm a tad lower on Dray than that, but I do think that's the class of player prime Dray should be discussed with (Kobe/Wade/CP3/etc).

eminence wrote:Peaks by a thing I touched on earlier (5 year RAPM * # of possessions played / 100). Using: https://www.thespax.com/nba/quantifying-the-nbas-greatest-five-year-peaks-since-1997/

Didn't use the '97-'01 set as the '97 data was notably incomplete.

Haven't looked at every player I'd like to yet, but expect I've hit most of the top guys. Just listing the top versions of each guy (LeBron takes the top 7 slots for instance).

Notes:
-Didn't adjust runs with shorter seasons, bump em up ~5% if you'd like.
-Approach is notably disfavorable to players with major injuries/missed time mid-prime (Wade notably, others I'm sure)
-Current players could score higher if we had the same dataset through '23 -Giannis/Dame. I'd also strongly expect Jokic/Tatum to join the list, and Embiid/Gobert/Holiday all seem possible.

Top 5 year peak/primes from '97-'21, guys I've found with 2500+ pts in value (if there's any other runs you're particularly interested in feel free to ask or do yourselves)
1. LeBron James '12-'16 5344
2. Tim Duncan '01-'05 4506
3. Stephen Curry '13-'17 4423
4. Kevin Garnett '00-'04 4276
5. Shaquille O'Neal '00-'04 4008
6. Draymond Green '15-'19 3953
7. Kobe Bryant '06-'10 3596
8. Dwyane Wade '06-'10 3432
9. Chris Paul '12-'16 3349
10. Dirk Nowitzki '07-'11 3327
11. James Harden '14-'18 3271
12. Kevin Durant '10-'14 3168
13. Kyle Lowry '15-'19 3063
14. Manu Ginobili '04-'08 3036
15. Rasheed Wallace '00-'04 2832
16. Russell Westbrook '13-'17 2821
17. Paul Pierce '01-'05 2812
18. Giannis Antetokounmpo '17-'21 2773
19. Steve Nash '06-'10 2762
20. Dwight Howard '08-'12 2658
21. John Stockton '98-'02 2555
22. Damian Lillard '17-'21 2525

Only if Chris Paul could be a little bit more durable, they might have defeated Warriors in 18, then his and Harden's, together with Curry and Durant's legacies would have been completely changed. He just cannot be trusted coming playoff time. When he can be so healthy during the regular season but so fragile during the playoffs, it really kills the team's chance to win as the starters could not adjust on fly to add a new PG. From this perspective, the injured seasons should be counted as negative values as your teammates, who are often the better player than CP3, are deprived of a chance to win it all, Harden in Rockets, Booker (and Durant) in Suns.

May 2, 2015: left hamstring strain, missed first 2 games of Western Conference Semifinals
April 25, 2016: broken right hand, missed last 2 games of Western Conference 1st round
May 24, 2018: right hamstring, missed last two games of Western Conference Finals
May 23, 2021: right shoulder, didn’t miss time
June 19, 2021: COVID-19 protocols, missed first two games of Western Conference Finals
May 6, 2022: unknown things happened after birthday, changed from 22.6p/9.9a/1.6to over 8 games to 9.4p/5.8a/3.6t over the next 5.
May 1, 2023: Left groin adductor strain, missed last 4 and half games of Western Conference Semifinals

No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Is KD seen as a top 15 guy by a majority at this point?

eminence wrote:

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Is KD seen as a top 15 guy by a majority at this point?

He is by me certainly. I think when he retires with 30k+ points the average fan will feel this way too. He could easily win a title in Phoenix and have the narrative shift.

eminence wrote:

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Is KD seen as a top 15 guy by a majority at this point?

Yes. High PPG against a mediocre defense in 2017 and Budenholzer leaving him in single coverage did alot

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Hakeem should be safe if people appreciate team context and defence (which implicitly they must for Garnett to also not have a “weaker” case than Kobe). And like Kobe, any postseason-focused analysis should be providing a comparative advantage to playoff fallers.

OhayoKD wrote:

eminence wrote:

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Is KD seen as a top 15 guy by a majority at this point?

Yes. High PPG against a mediocre defense in 2017 and Budenholzer leaving him in single coverage did alot

Yeah, he does seem to be after reviewing a few big source lists (eg #14 on ESPNs in '20).

eminence wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:

eminence wrote:
Is KD seen as a top 15 guy by a majority at this point?

Yes. High PPG against a mediocre defense in 2017 and Budenholzer leaving him in single coverage did alot

Yeah, he does seem to be after reviewing a few big source lists (eg #14 on ESPNs in '20).

Am curious how the PC-board reacted to the 2021 series. The hype elsewhere was wild. KD was legitimately viewed as the best player in the world because of game 5 vs Milwaukee. People still don't remember it wasn't a 3-game series.

Kobe and KD are an interesting comparison for me. I have them both in the teens tier, but go back and forth with their relative placements.

Scoring isn't the only thing either did, but that's where both are getting most of their value from and Durant just does it so much more efficiently, career 113 TS+ versus a season high of 107 TS+ for Kobe. So I tend to give Kevin the slight edge.

Currently have my 12-19 tier as Oscar, West, Dr. J, Dirk, KD, Kobe, Admiral, KG.

AEnigma wrote:

ceiling raiser wrote:No, but he’s not the player in typical top 15s with the weakest case (Bird’s is worse, Hakeem’s and Durant’s might be worse).

Hakeem should be safe if people appreciate team context and defence (which implicitly they must for Garnett to also not have a “weaker” case than Kobe). And like Kobe, any postseason-focused analysis should be providing a comparative advantage to playoff fallers.

If someone thinks offense>defense, centers are neutered in 2023, and the +/- data paints Hakeem as a second/third tier superstar, I can see it. Hakeem’s also not a Kareem/Shaq/Dirk quality big (let alone Jokic).

eminence wrote:
Yeah, he does seem to be after reviewing a few big source lists (eg #14 on ESPNs in '20).

Ya I think if you did a 'Is KD top 15 all time' poll on the gb it'd be at least 50% in the affirmative. I think there was one not that long ago actually or something similar. Lots of people see him as just outside the top 10 nowadays.