RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Larry Bird)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#141 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 8:55 pm

AEnigma wrote:I suspect most people — including Eminence — are not looking at the 1980 SRS jump, and the subsequent failure to ever replicate it without Bill Walton, as some serious suggestion that Bird had a historic defensive peak as a rookie that never again manifested.

However, since we are discussing that year specifically…
    - Bill Fitch is a marked coaching upgrade from twelve games with Tom Sanders and the rest of the season with player-coach Dave Cowens
    - An extra thousand minutes of backup centre Rick Robey is also a marked upgrade defensively
    - Relatedly to the prior two points, I think it likely served Dave Cowens well to not be a player-coach and to play fewer minutes a game (and I say this with the acknowledgment that the team played fine without him)
    - Gerald Henderson and M.L. Carr are good defensive additions to replace Billy Knight and JoJo White
    - Bird, to his credit, is a near perfect connective figure for that team, to the point that 1980 may well be his singular “impact” high point, and had better versions of him being placed on similarly structured teams, those teams may also be capable of outperforming his average rosters with McHale and Parish in the regular season.
    - Of course, the reason most people do not take this outlier SRS too seriously is because we know it was not representative of their postseason quality, and regardless of the regular season SRS values, the team was much better primed to compete for a title pretty much every subsequent year of Bird’s prime (possibly excepting 1983).
It is an impressive turnaround all the same, but that all seems like pretty relevant context to “omg 12-SRS change!”

I've responded to all this in more depth in other threads, but most of those non-Bird changes are not significant or didn't move the needle much. Cowens for example was a year older and a worse player compared to 79. As you admit, the team was unaffected by his absence, and he literally retired after the season. The Rockets just made far more significant upgrades this offseason... and everyone expects them to be one of the worst teams again, because none if those things will move the needle that much without a star.

The problem wasn't coaching in 79, it was lack of talent. Fitch was a fine coach, but coaches came and went on Bird's Celtics. Bird was the real coach of that team.

As I've explained, the law of diminishing returns applies here. The Celtics were not gunning it to try and max their SRS every year in the RS.

By far the biggest driver of the 80 Celtics improvement was Bird.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#142 » by f4p » Sat Aug 5, 2023 8:55 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
Excuse the sensationalist "ULTIMATE Mixtape" title. This is really well done and worth a watch regardless of your vote:



can i change my vote? :D the touch passes will always be so cool to watch.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#143 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 8:59 pm

f4p wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Excuse the sensationalist "ULTIMATE Mixtape" title. This is really well done and worth a watch regardless of your vote:



can i change my vote? :D the touch passes will always be so cool to watch.

I mean you really should. Kobe's a far inferior player.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#144 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:07 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
f4p wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Excuse the sensationalist "ULTIMATE Mixtape" title. This is really well done and worth a watch regardless of your vote:



can i change my vote? :D the touch passes will always be so cool to watch.

I mean you really should. Kobe's a far inferior player.

If you say so
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#145 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:14 pm

In games without Shaq he led the Lakers to a roughly 500 record from 99 to 07. Seems relevant.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#146 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:16 pm

One_and_Done wrote:In games without Shaq he led the Lakers to a roughly 500 record from 99 to 07. Seems relevant.

And in the regular season they were the best team once so...
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#147 » by Colbinii » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:18 pm

One_and_Done wrote:In games without Shaq he led the Lakers to a roughly 500 record from 99 to 07. Seems relevant.


Considering Shaq was around 30% of the payroll, this doesn't make Kobe look bad. Or am I misinterpreting something here?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#148 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:23 pm

Colbinii wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:In games without Shaq he led the Lakers to a roughly 500 record from 99 to 07. Seems relevant.


Considering Shaq was around 30% of the payroll, this doesn't make Kobe look bad. Or am I misinterpreting something here?

From 99 to 04 the Lakers played at a 60+ win pace in games Shaq played and Kobe didn't. Invert that, and the Lakers were sub-500 in games Kobe played and Shaq didn't (23-26 to be precise). So Shaq could lead the team to contention without Kobe, but not vice versa. A larger sample shows again Kobe's lack of floor raising. Kobe's record with the Lakers in games he played from 99 to 07, minus games Shaq played, is 135-137.

Yet he's being compared to a floor raising impact King in Bird.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#149 » by Owly » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:28 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
eminence wrote:
‘79 Celtics must’ve been a quality D with two defenders better than early career Bird.

You’ll be happy to hear I also give ‘01 Kobe MVP level flowers.

And I guess Bird forgot how to play defense the next two years since they got worse after adding parish and mchale(and would stay worse until walton arrived)

Kobe actually had to play really well to earn those flowers. Where exactly did Bird's one-off 5-point defensive impact come from?

This is technically incorrect, I think, at least by the most common measure and arguably potentially misleading.

Technically incorrect in that the '82 team with a -3.4 relDrtg matches that of '80 and thus is not "worse".

More broadly whilst the other following years are closer to average it goes -2.9, -3.4, -2.9, -3.2 before dropping to -1.5 in '85. Thus for the following 4 years the defense the defense is steadily at around the same level. It is technically worse, but at an average difference of 0.3 - the sort of difference I imagine free throw defense (granting raw comparison of opp ft% ignores use of cynical/strategic fouling, which is more likely though not exclusive to weaker shooters - fwiw [and granting difference from league average may be more significant] after 17th (of 22, rest are of 23 so the same number would be slightly further from the bottom in later years), they go 23, 17, 21, 22. It is higher in raw terms in '80 than most of the following years but the league average dropped from .764 to .751, .746, .740 finally bouncing back to .760 - or marginal players or garbage time could make that sort of difference more than any meaningful change in the team's defense (never mind any one individual's contribution to it).

I would also suggest noting McHale and Parish, but not the departure of Cowens is not an entirely balanced framing.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#150 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:33 pm

Owly wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
eminence wrote:
‘79 Celtics must’ve been a quality D with two defenders better than early career Bird.

You’ll be happy to hear I also give ‘01 Kobe MVP level flowers.

And I guess Bird forgot how to play defense the next two years since they got worse after adding parish and mchale(and would stay worse until walton arrived)

Kobe actually had to play really well to earn those flowers. Where exactly did Bird's one-off 5-point defensive impact come from?

This is technically incorrect, I think, at least by the most common measure and arguably potentially misleading.

Technically incorrect in that the '82 team with a -3.4 relDrtg matches that of '80 and thus is not "worse".

More broadly whilst the other following years are closer to average it goes -2.9, -3.4, -2.9, -3.2 before dropping to -1.5 in '85. Thus for the following 4 years the defense the defense is steadily at around the same level. It is technically worse, but at an average difference of 0.3 - the sort of difference I imagine free throw defense (granting raw comparison of opp ft% ignores use of cynical/strategic fouling, which is more likely though not exclusive to weaker shooters - fwiw [and granting difference from league average may be more significant] after 17th (of 22, rest are of 23 so the same number would be slightly further from the bottom in later years), they go 23, 17, 21, 22. It is higher in raw terms in '80 than most of the following years but the league average dropped from .764 to .751, .746, .740 finally bouncing back to .760 - or marginal players or garbage time could make that sort of difference more than any meaningful change in the team's defense (never mind any one individual's contribution to it).

I would also suggest noting McHale and Parish, but not the departure of Cowens is not an entirely balanced framing.

Was lazily looking at the raw, so fair.

As for Cowens, that kind of depends on how much credit you're giving him for the defensive turnaround.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#151 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:37 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
AEnigma wrote:I suspect most people — including Eminence — are not looking at the 1980 SRS jump, and the subsequent failure to ever replicate it without Bill Walton, as some serious suggestion that Bird had a historic defensive peak as a rookie that never again manifested.

However, since we are discussing that year specifically…
    - Bill Fitch is a marked coaching upgrade from twelve games with Tom Sanders and the rest of the season with player-coach Dave Cowens
    - An extra thousand minutes of backup centre Rick Robey is also a marked upgrade defensively
    - Relatedly to the prior two points, I think it likely served Dave Cowens well to not be a player-coach and to play fewer minutes a game (and I say this with the acknowledgment that the team played fine without him)
    - Gerald Henderson and M.L. Carr are good defensive additions to replace Billy Knight and JoJo White
    - Bird, to his credit, is a near perfect connective figure for that team, to the point that 1980 may well be his singular “impact” high point, and had better versions of him being placed on similarly structured teams, those teams may also be capable of outperforming his average rosters with McHale and Parish in the regular season.
    - Of course, the reason most people do not take this outlier SRS too seriously is because we know it was not representative of their postseason quality, and regardless of the regular season SRS values, the team was much better primed to compete for a title pretty much every subsequent year of Bird’s prime (possibly excepting 1983).
It is an impressive turnaround all the same, but that all seems like pretty relevant context to “omg 12-SRS change!”

I've responded to all this in more depth in other threads, but most of those non-Bird changes are not significant or didn't move the needle much. Cowens for example was a year older and a worse player compared to 79. As you admit, the team was unaffected by his absence, and he literally retired after the season. The Rockets just made far more significant upgrades this offseason... and everyone expects them to be one of the worst teams again, because none if those things will move the needle that much without a star.

Next time read the full post before complaining.

The problem wasn't coaching in 79, it was lack of talent. Fitch was a fine coach, but coaches came and went on Bird's Celtics.

Fitch quickly went to another Finals on his next team. Why are we pretending there are only a handle of coaches who matter and otherwise they are all replaceable and irrelevant.

Bird was the real coach of that team.

Laughable take for a rookie playing next to several veterans, including a teammate who literally had been the team’s coach.

As I've explained, the law of diminishing returns applies here. The Celtics were not gunning it to try and max their SRS every year in the RS.

Oh but they were in 1980 alone? I am not looking for fairy tales here.

By far the biggest driver of the 80 Celtics improvement was Bird.

Brave.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#152 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:42 pm

A team being 60 wins with an SRS of 7 may be just as good as a team with 60 wins and an SRS of 6.5. At that level of similarity it's possible the difference is just random noise, or external factors like the quality of the teams around them, or luck. Your take that the Celtics never matched the 1980 result again is a little silly, both for this reason and because it's unclear what your hypothesis even is. Are you trying to argue the Celtics got worse after 1980? That seems absurd.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#153 » by Owly » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:45 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Owly wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:And I guess Bird forgot how to play defense the next two years since they got worse after adding parish and mchale(and would stay worse until walton arrived)

Kobe actually had to play really well to earn those flowers. Where exactly did Bird's one-off 5-point defensive impact come from?

This is technically incorrect, I think, at least by the most common measure and arguably potentially misleading.

Technically incorrect in that the '82 team with a -3.4 relDrtg matches that of '80 and thus is not "worse".

More broadly whilst the other following years are closer to average it goes -2.9, -3.4, -2.9, -3.2 before dropping to -1.5 in '85. Thus for the following 4 years the defense the defense is steadily at around the same level. It is technically worse, but at an average difference of 0.3 - the sort of difference I imagine free throw defense (granting raw comparison of opp ft% ignores use of cynical/strategic fouling, which is more likely though not exclusive to weaker shooters - fwiw [and granting difference from league average may be more significant] after 17th (of 22, rest are of 23 so the same number would be slightly further from the bottom in later years), they go 23, 17, 21, 22. It is higher in raw terms in '80 than most of the following years but the league average dropped from .764 to .751, .746, .740 finally bouncing back to .760 - or marginal players or garbage time could make that sort of difference more than any meaningful change in the team's defense (never mind any one individual's contribution to it).

I would also suggest noting McHale and Parish, but not the departure of Cowens is not an entirely balanced framing.

Was lazily looking at the raw, so fair.

As for Cowens, that kind of depends on how much credit you're giving him for the defensive turnaround.

I would argue it matters more what one thinks of his defense in 1980, regardless of how much credit you give him for the defensive turnaround (this is not to comment on whether or not he did contribute to the turnaround [and if so to what degree]). I would have thought his role in '79 would have little relevance to the difference between '80 and '81.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#154 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:48 pm

I agree, it is very absurd. Yet what you are effectively arguing is that 1980 regular season result is their baseline. It is not.

The 2019 Raptors directly upgraded four starters from their 7.3 SRS squad. How were they not seen as the inevitable champion? :thinking:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#155 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:49 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:In games without Shaq he led the Lakers to a roughly 500 record from 99 to 07. Seems relevant.


Considering Shaq was around 30% of the payroll, this doesn't make Kobe look bad. Or am I misinterpreting something here?

From 99 to 04 the Lakers played at a 60+ win pace in games Shaq played and Kobe didn't. Invert that, and the Lakers were sub-500 in games Kobe played and Shaq didn't (23-26 to be precise). So Shaq could lead the team to contention without Kobe, but not vice versa. A larger sample shows again Kobe's lack of floor raising. Kobe's record with the Lakers in games he played from 99 to 07, minus games Shaq played, is 135-137.

2000 Lakers:
Spoiler:
Playoff SRS: +7.79 (96th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: -0.41 (99th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.61 (38th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.68 (32nd)

Round 1: Sacramento Kings (+3.0), won 3-2, by +8.0 points per game (+11.0 SRS eq)
Round 2: Phoenix Suns (+5.7), won 4-1, by +7.6 points per game (+13.3 SRS eq)
Round 3: Portland Trail Blazers (+8.1), won 4-3, by -1.9 points per game (+6.2 SRS eq)
Round 4: Indiana Pacers (+4.4), won 4-2, by -2.1 points per game (+2.3 SRS eq)

2001 Lakers:
Spoiler:
Playoff Offensive Rating: +12.2 (3rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -7.5 (24th)
Playoff SRS: +18.39 (2nd), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +8.46 (1st)
Shooting Advantage: +5.4%, Possession Advantage: +2.4 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.39 (51st), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.61 (16th)

Kobe Bryant (SG, 22): 48 MPPG, 30% OLoad, 33 / 8 / 7 / 3 on +3.7%
Shaquille O’Neal (C, 28): 47 MPPG, 30% OLoad, 34 / 17 / 4 / 3 on +4.6%
Rick Fox (SF, 31): 40 MPPG, 15% OLoad, 11 / 6 / 4 / 3 on +4.5%
Derek Fisher (PG, 26): 40 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 15 / 4 / 3 / 2 on +10.0%
Robert Horry (PF, 30): 27 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 7 / 6 / 2 / 3 on -3.2%
Horace Grant (PF, 35): 29 MPPG, 13% OLoad, 7 / 7 / 1 / 2 on -7.8%

2002 Lakers:
Spoiler:
Playoff Offensive Rating: +5.55 (51st), Playoff Defensive Rating: -4.74 (56th)
Playoff SRS: +10.23 (58th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +1.91 (11th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.54 (41st), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.65 (14th)


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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#156 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:53 pm

I'm not sure what the relevance of those stats are to Kobe's lousy sub-500 record with the Lakers minus Shaq.

The law of diminishing returns explains things RE: the 80s Celtics. Just stop taking minor SRS differences on 60+ win teams so seriously.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#157 » by Colbinii » Sat Aug 5, 2023 9:54 pm

AEnigma wrote:I agree, it is very absurd. Yet what you are effectively arguing is that 1980 regular season result is their baseline. It is not.

The 2019 Raptors directly upgraded four starters from their 7.3 SRS squad. How were they not seen as the inevitable champion? :thinking:

In hindsight they should have been :lol:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#158 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 10:12 pm

One_and_Done wrote:I'm not sure what the relevance of those stats are to Kobe's lousy sub-500 record with the Lakers minus Shaq.

The law of diminishing returns explains things RE: the 80s Celtics. Just stop taking minor SRS differences on 60+ win teams so seriously.

Which year was Kobe at his worst? Which year did the lakers post their best regular season?

I am struggling to see the relevance of Shaq's rs record without Kobe when the Lakers are far weaker in the postseason without Bryant playing superstar ball
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#159 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 5, 2023 10:18 pm

You get that Shaq tried harder in the playoffs too right? If anything Shaq was the famed RS slacker. Yet the RS difference between them is so slanted to Shaq. Then the next 3 years back it up. Kobe just wasn't a floor raiser. He was a supplementary weapon you add to a team who is already good, and in a comparison with Bird that kills him. Playoffs are important, and Kobe and Bird are both less impactful there than nostalgia would have you believe, but getting to the playoffs to begin with is very important too. Bird kills, just kills, Kobe in the RS impact scales.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 9:00A EST on 8/6/23) 

Post#160 » by OhayoKD » Sat Aug 5, 2023 11:03 pm

One_and_Done wrote:You get that Shaq tried harder in the playoffs too right?

So Shaq wasn't trying in the 2000 playoffs?

Bird was also a "supplementary weapon you add to a team that's really good". Title-winning teams generally can make the playoffs without you and Kobe would improve from that point(and win repeat titles as the best player)

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