RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (David Robinson)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#141 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 23, 2023 8:55 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:If a team today was given the option of drafting KD, Dirk or Malone, and they knew they'd keep him his whole career, does anyone seriously think they're taking anyone but KD? It feel like KD is not being taken for stuff that has nothing to do with basketball.

I have not being active recently on this project, but I have been reading it and I see you using this argument on the forum many times. I wonder - how do you know? Have you ever asked an NBA GM or coach? If not, then what value your argument has?

Sometimes that phrasing makes people come to their senses. KD is a guy whose stats, team success, eye test, and theoretical role, all seem to strongly favour KD IMO.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#142 » by OhayoKD » Wed Aug 23, 2023 9:36 am

Vote

1. Dirk

Am leaning Drob for 2 but am open to cases for Erving and(if nominated) Nash.
iggymcfrack wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Karl Malone was a significantly bigger presence in the media than Dirk Nowitzki was. I don't think him having more MVP votes means he is a better player.


I don’t really feel like that’s true. The man played in the media market of…Salt Lake City. He may have still had a bigger media presence, but perhaps that’s because he was a better player.

To me, it’s fairly obvious that Karl Malone was on a different tier as a player overall than Dirk Nowitzki, at least as it relates to the regular season. The question is just whether Dirk has an advantage in the playoffs that could overcome this. To me, it doesn’t—in large part because outside of 2011, the Mavs were not a great playoff team at all and Dirk was not considered a great playoff player. And while 2011 was really impressive, the late-1990’s Jazz played great in the playoffs (highest 3-year playoff rNetRTG of any non-champion ever), and met a team that was better even than the gauntlet of great teams the 2011 Mavs faced. I’m far from convinced that the 2011 Mavs would’ve beaten the Bulls or that the late-1990’s Jazz couldn’t have won in 2011.


You never know what would have happened in any individual series, but I’m quite confident that the 2011 Mavs had a tougher road to the title than either of the Jazz Finals teams.

The 3-year frame is also pretty inconvenient for Dirk since Cuban basically blew up the mavs after their win in 2011-12 and Tyson Chandler arrived in 2010.

Regardless, by rolling PSRS the 2006 Mavs also look pretty good here posting a score of +10.3 which is higher than any of losing finalist from the 90's(97 Jazz come closest with a +9.8). The 2011 Mavs grade out at +11. Curiously the 96 Jazz score higher than both with a +13 despite losing to the +8 PSRS SuperSonics who would finish at +9.5 after overperforming against the 1996 Bulls(+15 pre-finals).

If we're calling the Utah finalists a great playoff side, the 06 Mavs probably qualify, especially if we curve down for inflated(realtive to actual championship prospects) expansion-era SRS. SRS is of course a proxy mainly used to predict playoff success.

Ultimately the Mavs dominating a back-to-back champion before beating the healthiest version of the big-three that won the next two titles seems more impressive than anything the Jazz managed. There's been discussion about referee-errors potentially denying the Jazz a win in 98 but 2006 was also pretty controversial and if the Mavericks win there Dirk is probably in a completely different conversation.

I am open to a case that Malone had less help but it would have to be pretty decisive. I have time-machine considerations as a tie-breaker and it's hard for me to see that going Malone's way given a hint of modernism basically destroyed Utah's offense in 98. Utah had a pretty shallow bench but I'd guess Malone had better starters. Carlise is probably a better coach than George Karl and coaching played a factor in both Dirk's win and Malone's losses. Then again, Dirk did not enjoy comparable stability, led contenders with different coaches and co-stars while Malone has never really proven anything without George Karl and Stockton.

Also safe to say Malone had negative intangibles and that the family involved was desperate enough to take his money does not really justify neglecting this sort of decision-making for those looking at how what a player does off-the-court would affect championship prospects.

Dirk did not have a similar scandal to my knowledge and, like Duncan, was willing to take a paycut to boost his team's prospects. That he was not as fortunate in terms of team infrastructure to have that translate to a late mid-10's contender should not be held against him.

All considered, short of a slamdunk case for Malone having less support, I think I'll have to favor the German.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#143 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 23, 2023 10:11 am

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:If a team today was given the option of drafting KD, Dirk or Malone, and they knew they'd keep him his whole career, does anyone seriously think they're taking anyone but KD? It feel like KD is not being taken for stuff that has nothing to do with basketball.

I have not being active recently on this project, but I have been reading it and I see you using this argument on the forum many times. I wonder - how do you know? Have you ever asked an NBA GM or coach? If not, then what value your argument has?

Sometimes that phrasing makes people come to their senses. KD is a guy whose stats, team success, eye test, and theoretical role, all seem to strongly favour KD IMO.

Again, we've been here before. By "stats" you mean points and TS%. By "eye test", you haven't specified anything.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#144 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 23, 2023 10:52 am

1) willing to take a pay cut is not an argument about on court impact
2) not involved in a scandal is not an argument about on court impact
3) Cuban was right to blow the Mavs up tbh. He messed up the execution, but let's be real they weren't winning again once the Heat had the offseason to figure out how to play together and put a modern line-up around James.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#145 » by penbeast0 » Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:02 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:I have not being active recently on this project, but I have been reading it and I see you using this argument on the forum many times. I wonder - how do you know? Have you ever asked an NBA GM or coach? If not, then what value your argument has?

Sometimes that phrasing makes people come to their senses. KD is a guy whose stats, team success, eye test, and theoretical role, all seem to strongly favour KD IMO.

Again, we've been here before. By "stats" you mean points and TS%. By "eye test", you haven't specified anything.


Not sure that anyone specifies particular things with "eye test" other than sometimes man to man defensive impact. It's a general sense gained by watching the player of how often and how well he impacts the game.

On the other hand, I will say that people who have problems with other players in the locker room or distracting off court issues do impact the team cohesiveness and the on court product. That wouldn't be Karl Malone, except for his final year in LA; as far as I can tell, his problems surfaced post-career just going from memory. But someone like Shawn Marion, Barkley, or Webber, it's a legitimate issue.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#146 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:07 am

penbeast0 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Sometimes that phrasing makes people come to their senses. KD is a guy whose stats, team success, eye test, and theoretical role, all seem to strongly favour KD IMO.

Again, we've been here before. By "stats" you mean points and TS%. By "eye test", you haven't specified anything.


Not sure that anyone specifies particular things with "eye test" other than sometimes man to man defensive impact. It's a general sense gained by watching the player of how often and how well he impacts the game.

Beyond doing any in depth tracking studies (which I don't expect), you can at least say what advantages one player has over the other. Saying that someone is better because of the eye-test is an empty statement.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#147 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:08 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:I have not being active recently on this project, but I have been reading it and I see you using this argument on the forum many times. I wonder - how do you know? Have you ever asked an NBA GM or coach? If not, then what value your argument has?

Sometimes that phrasing makes people come to their senses. KD is a guy whose stats, team success, eye test, and theoretical role, all seem to strongly favour KD IMO.

Again, we've been here before. By "stats" you mean points and TS%. By "eye test", you haven't specified anything.

I hear scoring more points more efficiently is helpful. I posted some stats on the top of the previous page. Dirk doesn't stand out versus either Mailman or KD.

Mailman isn't as good on O, but makes up for it on the defensive end where Dirk is a negative probably (remember also Dirk is guarding the worst player, Mailman is often guarding the best). Dirk comes out as the guy with the best PS Ortg, but if I made KDs sample as small as the one I used for Dirk's then KD would likely exceed him there too.

When one looks through their careers and how their teams did thanks to them, I'm more impressed by what it looks like KD did than either Dirk or Malone. Alot of Jazz and Mavs shortcomings in the playoffs.

As for the eye test/theoretical player analysis; KD is basically an ideal modern player. Uber long, hyper efficient on offense, lets you play big while going small, capable of being a good defender (even offering limited rim protection), and able to thrive on or off ball. Dirk's defensive limitations hurt him, as does Mailman's lack of 3pt shooting. KD gas no such weaknesses.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#148 » by Owly » Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:21 am

70sFan wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Again, we've been here before. By "stats" you mean points and TS%. By "eye test", you haven't specified anything.


Not sure that anyone specifies particular things with "eye test" other than sometimes man to man defensive impact. It's a general sense gained by watching the player of how often and how well he impacts the game.

Beyond doing any in depth tracking studies (which I don't expect), you can at least say what advantages one player has over the other. Saying that someone is better because of the eye-test is an empty statement.

Agree with Pen that eyetest is a general sense. Agree with 70sFan that in general "[my] eyetest" without any specifics will (perhaps depending on the source) tend not to be persuasive and is difficult to engage with in any meaningful way.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#149 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:53 am

KD is faster, longer, more athletic, and a better shooter and defender than Dirk on the eye test. Stats and the way each did and didn't drive various upper degrees of high level winning seem to back that up. I would say KD had a better handle and was a better passer too, which the stats also back up.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#150 » by ijspeelman » Wed Aug 23, 2023 12:06 pm

I was not back to being active in the thread. Sending out my D. Rob vote and abstaining from the alternate as I did not really make a final determination (I was between Karl and Dirk).

Vote: David Robinson

Image

Spoiler:
I was basically between Jerry West, Oscar Robertson, and David Robinson and its all super close for me. I am sticking with my trend of picking these two-way bigs as I find they have the most impact which I think is backed with one-number metrics and film.

trex_8063 wrote:Robinson shapes out as one of the very best of his generation in the impact metrics we have (rs AuPM ['94-'96], RAPM ['97 onward]), despite very little of that falling in his prime:

'94: 1st in league [by silly margin: +1.5 over 2nd place (K.Malone)]
'95: 1st in league [by even sillier margin: +2.8 over 2nd place (S.Pippen)]
'96: 1st in league [+0.2 over returned Michael Jordan]
**Honestly, I think you could make an argument that David Robinson, peri-peak, was the regular season GOAT.

PI RAPM [playoffs included] after returning from injury (and well into his 30s, fwiw):
'98: 23rd
'99: 3rd (1st in NPI, fwiw)
'00: 4th
Remained top 10 in '01 [NPI], still top 20 in '02, bounces back to fringe top-10 in '03 [more limited minutes].


Image

For my money, David Robinson arguably has the best three year scoring peak of the guys I have near this spot all while playing near-GOAT level defense. His playmaking doesn't compare, however I think he is a much better passer over the replacement player at the center position.




Spoiler:
I really like the spacing element he provides at his position. The tracked data from after his peak does not paint him in the greatest light here (https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/robinda01.html#shooting), but his self-generation and touch in his peak seem to go against this data.




Spoiler:
I also give him credit for turning into an all-star to sub all-star just on defense once Timmy arrived which extends his longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#151 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:06 pm

One_and_Done wrote:I hear scoring more points more efficiently is helpful. I posted some stats on the top of the previous page. Dirk doesn't stand out versus either Mailman or KD.

You did and outside of points scored and TS%, you also included rebounding (which paints KD as clearly last) and assists (without taking into account turnovers). Your numbers show that Durant scores and assists the most per possession, but it doesn't mean he's the best player out there. Besides, the difference in these stats are not significant, which suggests that all three are in similar tier.

I also don't understand how you made these samples. You wanted to filter out Nash from Dirk, but you are fine with using GSW Durant. You include 1988 for Malone, but not 1999... Can you explain it to me?

If we use your criteria but for the best 8 seasons, the difference in these stats is very minor:

2012-19 KD RS: 38.0pp100 10.3rp100, 6.8ap100, 121 Ortg/104 Drtg, 635 TS%
1991-98 Karl RS: 36.5pp100, 14.6rp100, 5.1ap100, 117 Ortg/102 Drtg, 590 TS%
2004-11 Dirk RS: 35.0pp100, 12.1rp100, 4.1ap100, 118 Ortg/104 Drtg, 583 TS%

2012-19 KD PS: 37.2pp100, 9.7rp100, 5.4ap100, 116 Ortg/106 Drtg, 604 TS%
1991-98 Karl PS: 35.7pp100, 15.1rp100, 4.3ap100, 109 Ortg/102 Drtg, 533 TS%
2004-11 Dirk PS: 34.1pp100, 13.3rp100, 3.7ap100, 120 Ortg/107 Drtg, 585 TS%

Durant has an advantage of 2-3 points per100 in RS and 1.5 points per100 in postseason. He's clearly last in rebounding department. He's clearly the most efficient in the RS and only slightly more efficient in PS than Dirk (not when you adjust for era difference). As I said before, you also miss turnover economy where KD is distant last in this comparison.

I just don't understand how you can look at these numbers and say that Durant is clearly superior than the rest.

Mailman isn't as good on O, but makes up for it on the defensive end where Dirk is a negative probably (remember also Dirk is guarding the worst player, Mailman is often guarding the best).

You ignored RAPM studies provided in previous posts, no impact metrics show Dirk as a negative and although I am not high on Dirk defense, he had some very clear strengths on that end (boxing out, limiting transitions, great TOV economy, decent size). I wouldn't be so sure about KD being a better defender than Dirk over the course of the their careers.

Dirk comes out as the guy with the best PS Ortg, but if I made KDs sample as small as the one I used for Dirk's then KD would likely exceed him there too.

I made the sample bigger for you and Dirk still is superior - mostly because of turnover economy where Dirk crushes KD.

When one looks through their careers and how their teams did thanks to them, I'm more impressed by what it looks like KD did than either Dirk or Malone. Alot of Jazz and Mavs shortcomings in the playoffs.

Do you think that Durant teams didn't underperform outside of Golden State? I mean, he went to the finals once but other than that, I don't find his postseason career that impressive. Unless you want to give him huge boost for GSW years, but I don't think it's fair to compare team results in this case considering that Malone and Dirk never played with such a stacked teams.

As for the eye test/theoretical player analysis; KD is basically an ideal modern player. Uber long, hyper efficient on offense, lets you play big while going small, capable of being a good defender (even offering limited rim protection), and able to thrive on or off ball. Dirk's defensive limitations hurt him, as does Mailman's lack of 3pt shooting. KD gas no such weaknesses.

I think an "ideal modern player" should be able to handle the ball better than Durant who can't do much in the playoffs without elite ball-handler. Dirk, despite being limited in that area as well, actually had a lot of success with mediocre PGs.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#152 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:13 pm

One_and_Done wrote:KD is faster, longer, more athletic, and a better shooter and defender than Dirk on the eye test. Stats and the way each did and didn't drive various upper degrees of high level winning seem to back that up. I would say KD had a better handle and was a better passer too, which the stats also back up.

It's true that KD is faster, probably longer and more athletic than Dirk. Durant was also a better passer, no disagreement here (the problem is there with funcionality of this passing, but later on that).

I don't think he's a better shooter, that's far from a clear point. Durant is also significantly weaker physically and he's smaller than Dirk overall. I think Dirk had also clearly a better balance, which basically makes him less reliable one on one scorer. I also don't think the gap in funcional handles exists between them, Dirk was a very capable ball-handler for his size and Durant is nothing beyond that.

About passing - as I said, I agree but the key thing is that despite Durant's superior passing, he still doesn't create way more looks for his teammates than Dirk and he turns the ball over significantly more than Dirk. I think Dirk, despite limited vision, was a better decision maker with the ball than Durant.

All of these of course doesn't take into account things like durability or longevity, where Dirk crushes Durant and I think career value isn't insignificant argument in this project. It's fine to prefer Durant for his peak over Dirk - I am not sure who I'd take personally - but it's just not true that Durant is levels beyond what we've seen from Dirk.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#153 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:20 pm

One_and_Done wrote:If a team today was given the option of drafting KD, Dirk or Malone, and they knew they'd keep him his whole career, does anyone seriously think they're taking anyone but KD? It feel like KD is not being taken for stuff that has nothing to do with basketball.


Are you asking if there are anyone in the basketball community who would sign Nowitzki and Malone over Durant? Yes, there almost certainly are.

Though I am not sure where you're getting the idea that you know what every team would do, or if every team would make the right decision.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#154 » by cupcakesnake » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:23 pm

Vote: David Robinson
Alternate: Dirk Nowitzki
Nominate: Giannis


Taking the best 2-way big off the board, and next up on my list is the best playoff scoring resiliency (haha wow are David and Dirk opposites!).

Robinson is by far the best 2-way big left on the board. While I'm not a huge fan of his offense, I think the only other guys around his level defensively (who haven't been voted in already) are mostly defensive specialists (Ben Wallace, Draymond, Mutombo, Thurmond etc.). Robinson is kind of like KG in that we rarely got to see him play with a playmaker who could amplify his tools as a finisher. It's tantallizing to imagine Robinson as a rim runner who could counter into pick & pops. The closest he got was the best years of Avery Johnson. Admiral was born to feast in this role, but instead he was forced to prop up offenses with his raw scoring tools. He managed pretty well and even became one of the league's biggest volume scorers in this role. As a golden rule though, I don't think a guy with a near neutral assist-TO ratio is ever a legit offensive anchor. That being said, Robinson's Spurs manage 2 very strong offensive seasons ('94 and '95). The '94 offense dies completely against the Jazz. In '95 they crush a couple mediocre teams in the playoffs (Lakers and Nuggs) and Robinson's performance is up and down before the infamous Houston series where Hakeem captures the narrative with the one-on-one aspect of that matchup. More importantly, the Rockets strangle the Spurs offense and once again a playoff offense built around Robinson does not seem like an equation for a championship. The defense stayed very legit though.

Imagining modern David Robinson on offense (Deandre Ayton with a motor, no fear of contact, better spacing, and a hunger for the rim), it's just as fun to imagine prime Robinson's defense. Bigs weren't asked to be very mobile back then, so a big part of Robinson's physical toolset wasn't utilized. He doesn't look like he has amazing hip flexibility (hard to judge for 90s centers since we rarely see them in a perimeter stance), so I don't see a Bam level switcher. But his effortless ability to cover ground, teleport in the air, and always play on his toes has me imagining a guy who can contest on the perimeter and recover into rim protection mode like a 7'0" Ben Wallace.

I have Dirk basically tied with Robinson on my personal list. When I get into ranges though, I have Robinson the tiniest bit higher (Robinson as high as 11 and Dirk as high as 12). These two are a fun direct comparison, not just because they're opposites in terms of GOAT-level offensive vs. defensive bigs, but also because they played their whole careers on the same team and we saw some different players put next to them in this relatively stable situation. Robinson played with a very similar core over his prime, but we saw little things (with/without Avery Johnson, introducing the volatility of Rodman) that gave us better data. Dirk played in all kinds of configurations and it became more clear what the ideal Dirk equation is (rim protector + versatile defenders + guards who can attack the space Dirk provides). We never saw the ideal David Robinson situation, imo. No player gets to play in their ideal situation for their entire careers, but I'd argue Robinson was lower on this spectrum. Dirk longevity smashes Robinson's so if people have Dirk higher, I don't think that's bad.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#155 » by Colbinii » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:33 pm

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Karl Malone
Nominate: Steve Nash
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#156 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:37 pm

Just a reminder, there's no nominations this round.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#157 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:52 pm

Vote 1 - Dirk Nowitzki
Vote 2 - Julius Erving


Day got away from me yesterday so a quick breakdown trying to get a vote in:

- Excellent consistency and longevity: played 21 seasons, made the playoffs 15 times in a 16 year stretch, 11 straight 50 win seasons
- When you look at some of the rosters dirk led to the playoffs after 2011 his impact is clear
- Outside of '07 he was a great playoff performer, and post '07 improved his footwork and patience to the point where he was basically unguardable. His teammates failed to step up in the '08, '09 and '10 postseasons vs. '11.
- The king of the 2 man game throughout his career with Nash, Terry and Barea

'09-'11, '15-'20 which is the 9 seasons barea played at least 15 MPG in Dallas:

Dirk ON, Barea OFF 10,901 minutes, +2.02 Net
Dirk + Barea ON 6,459 minutes, +4.99 Net

I mean how can you argue with that :)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#158 » by ShaqAttac » Wed Aug 23, 2023 1:56 pm

okay. IM GONNA VOTE

DR J
3 chips n 4 mvps. idk what his impact looked like but it was probably good

DIRK
longetvity, won an mvp, and beat kobe, bron, wade, and bosh for a chip.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#159 » by falcolombardi » Wed Aug 23, 2023 2:36 pm

I would go with dirk at this point

I see him as a fairly comparable player to kobe, way closer than the general public sees them

Both are at their best elite offense floorraisers, capable of leading teams to near all time offense and portable denough to thrive along other offense stars like nash or shaq as well as lead more role player/defense oriented teams.

His longevity is just as good as kobe too, and his impact metrics arguably look better than kobe

Main issue i have is funnily enough i find him less portablr than kobe due to his position being morr valuable defensively. I am not high om kobe Defense but he occupies less valuable defensive role

Also therr is an argument that current league dirk would lose some value in a league where spacing bigs are nearly the norm, whereas a big ball handlet with ability to pass and score well like kobe would gain value as a heliocentric star

Small ish differences that make me a bit higher om kobe, but dirk doesnt fall far behind

My vote is dirk
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/23/23) 

Post#160 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 23, 2023 2:59 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Karl Malone was a significantly bigger presence in the media than Dirk Nowitzki was. I don't think him having more MVP votes means he is a better player.


I don’t really feel like that’s true. The man played in the media market of…Salt Lake City. He may have still had a bigger media presence, but perhaps that’s because he was a better player.

To me, it’s fairly obvious that Karl Malone was on a different tier as a player overall than Dirk Nowitzki, at least as it relates to the regular season. The question is just whether Dirk has an advantage in the playoffs that could overcome this. To me, it doesn’t—in large part because outside of 2011, the Mavs were not a great playoff team at all and Dirk was not considered a great playoff player. And while 2011 was really impressive, the late-1990’s Jazz played great in the playoffs (highest 3-year playoff rNetRTG of any non-champion ever), and met a team that was better even than the gauntlet of great teams the 2011 Mavs faced. I’m far from convinced that the 2011 Mavs would’ve beaten the Bulls or that the late-1990’s Jazz couldn’t have won in 2011.


You never know what would have happened in any individual series, but I’m quite confident that the 2011 Mavs had a tougher road to the title than either of the Jazz Finals teams.


Hard disagree, especially as it relates to 1997. The Bulls were good enough that it basically rendered it a significantly tougher road regardless of the rest of the teams the Jazz played. It is exponentially harder to beat a team that is that good. We’re talking about a 69-win, 10.7 SRS opponent. The chances of beating that team are just massively lower than the chances of beating even the great teams the 2011 Mavs faced. And even beyond that, you had the Jazz facing various combinations of Shaq’s Lakers, Hakeem’s Rockets, and the Duncan/Robinson Spurs each year before the finals—so it’s not like their runs weren’t quite difficult before the finals. The 2011 Mavs faced an extremely tough road, but I think what the Jazz faced was wildly difficult, in large part because the 2011 Mavs never faced anything like those Bulls (especially the 1997 version). I am essentially certain the 2011 Mavs would not have won in 1997 (and probably not in 1998 either, but at least there the Bulls weren’t as good), and it’s far from clear to me that the late-1990’s Jazz couldn’t have beaten that gauntlet in 2011, given that they got through a couple gauntlets of their own in the Western Conference, posted incredibly high three-year playoff rNetRTG’s (higher than anything the Mavs put up), and only fell to a team that was better than anything the Mavs faced (and the Jazz actually did fairly well against that team).
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.

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