Will/Should Demar Derozan get into the HOF?

[raptorforlife88]

There is a 0% he does not make the hall.

DeRozan has a decent shot, but it's not a guarantee. He has the production, but lacks many of the bona fides to cement his status.

And as scoring numbers continue to inflate, he'll likely be pushed further down that scoring list by Luka, Tatum, SGA, Trae, Giannis and this current generation of scorers.

You really think when he's ranked above Carmelo in all time points that voters aren't going to put him in? Like I said he may even wind up above Shaq. He's made All-NBA teams and is widely liked by media members. I would bet heavy money on it.

Up until like 20 years ago every player who ever had more than 20,000 total points had made it in. Even with scoring inflation he has gone well above clearing that and when he retires he will be top 15 which is what matters.

All the guys you listed will if they manage it are years from pushing him off the list. Giannis is the soonest and that will be about 5 years from now at his current rate. Luka and Tatum barring any kind of injury in about 8 years or well past when Derozan has retired and may even be eligible for voting for the Hall. SGA/Trae are so far off, that injuries, tailing off, rule changes and any number of other things could prevent them from getting there. Even Trae right now at his current pace would need to replicate his best season for the next 9-10 years in a row till he was 35.

It's not going to make a difference if Giannis and Luka push Demar from 15th to 16th in many years from now.

[Doctor MJ]

If you look at many players who made the HoF, DeRozan should easily make it.

I'm curious what players you're thinking about here, other than those associated with championship teams (which I think we know tends to way heavily in voters' minds).

[NZB2323]

If you look at many players who made the HoF, DeRozan should easily make it.

I'm curious what players you're thinking about here, other than those associated with championship teams (which I think we know tends to way heavily in voters' minds).

Mitch Richmond.

[Doctor MJ]

If you look at many players who made the HoF, DeRozan should easily make it.

I'm curious what players you're thinking about here, other than those associated with championship teams (which I think we know tends to way heavily in voters' minds).

Mitch Richmond.

Good name to bring up. I was surprised when Richmond got it.

I have to say, I think that Mitch being the "M" in "Run TMC" did a lot of the work, as bizarre as that sounds and as silly as that is.

[Pelon chingon]

If you look at many players who made the HoF, DeRozan should easily make it.

I'm curious what players you're thinking about here, other than those associated with championship teams (which I think we know tends to way heavily in voters' minds).

Mitch Richmond.

Richmond did in fact win one *2002.

[JonFromVA]

BBR has his HOF probability at just 51.9% at this point.

The hall is "easy" to get in to because they consider all levels of basketball such as college and FIBA.

Demar does have an Olympic gold medal.

[Deivork]

This poll says that 77% of people believe what should happen will happen. And of course, they're split. Hardly objective we are.

[raptorforlife88]

He's already tracking for more this year but I think assuming pretty rapid drop offs of 1700-1300-1000-500 gets him an additional 4500 points for the rest of his career and means he's got 28,000 points. Harden and probably Curry stay ahead of him and he's passing Westbrook maybe even this year. Put's him at 15th all time.

If he stays healthy (which he has) and keeps at his pace for this year and next, then 5000 more points is doable and he's for sure passing Carmelo and maybe passing Shaq.

There is a 0% he does not make the hall. He'll already be a lock at 26,000 points I think, and then he's just adding to it.

I started this thread with an eye to thinking he would make it and deserved it even if he wasn't truly elite, but I underestimated him since I thought he'd hit around 26000 and top 25 all time in points.

So let me just make clear up front:

1. I think DeRozan at this point is likely to get into the Hall due to his late career statistical excellence making his longevity really pop.

2. I wouldn't vote for him, but I'm not really looking to enter into another argument about that.

What's catching my eye here is your focus on cumulative scoring totals, which in my experience isn't how hoops Hall cases are typically made, but absolutely IS how baseball Hall cases are made. ("He got 3000 hits - and we don't have proof he used steroids - so he's in!")

So my question to you would be: What evidence do you have for hoops voters thinking specifically in these terms?

Emphasizing again: I'm not saying that longevity doesn't help a guy's case - it clearly does. But there's a difference between voters a) being gradually more impressed with the body of work a long longevity guys has, as opposed to b) looking at cumulative scoring leader and deciding guys are in when they breach the right threshold.

I think we know that to some extent there had been the idea that if you hit 20,000 points you were going to be a HOFer. Maybe it was coincidental, but it was also something I saw referred to in article pretty frequently, until basically Antawn Jamison and Joe Johnson got there. So it has existed.

I think that while I've mentioned the number, more than the number the other thing I've mentioned is the ranking of where it places him. 26,000 placing him in the top 25, 28 and change putting him solidly in that top 15.

I think it's not that Derozan's hitting a specific number, but that the specific number he is likely to hit will be placing him in an echelon of scorers who are undeniably HOFers. It is one thing to have 21 or 22000 points and be around a lot of well known guys but also Hal Greer, Walt Bellamy and Dantley. All HOFers, but they're not household names. You can make an argument to most people yeah Derozan was a good player for a long time, but he had empty stats, didn't play well in the playoffs, was a lousy defender etc.

But because his current output will probably place him ahead of Hakeem and Oscar and maybe with a good closeout above Carmelo and in particular Shaq, and well ahead of many no doubt HOFers like Reggie, Iverson, Ray Allen, I think that lifts him up in greater esteem (even though his impact is obviously not near that although he's not that far off of Carmelo).

I won't debate the whether he "should" or not. I get the arguments for why he shouldn't. But I am noting that I think for the above reasons, he will be considered a surefire HOFer.

[NZB2323]

I'm curious what players you're thinking about here, other than those associated with championship teams (which I think we know tends to way heavily in voters' minds).

Mitch Richmond.

Richmond did in fact win one *2002.

He played a grand total of 4 minutes during their playoff run. That should have zero impact on him making the HOF.

When they let Mitch Richmond in, it’s harder to keep guys out. As bad as Demar has been in the playoffs, he almost has 3x the amount of playoff points that Richmond has.

[Doctor MJ]

He's already tracking for more this year but I think assuming pretty rapid drop offs of 1700-1300-1000-500 gets him an additional 4500 points for the rest of his career and means he's got 28,000 points. Harden and probably Curry stay ahead of him and he's passing Westbrook maybe even this year. Put's him at 15th all time.

If he stays healthy (which he has) and keeps at his pace for this year and next, then 5000 more points is doable and he's for sure passing Carmelo and maybe passing Shaq.

There is a 0% he does not make the hall. He'll already be a lock at 26,000 points I think, and then he's just adding to it.

I started this thread with an eye to thinking he would make it and deserved it even if he wasn't truly elite, but I underestimated him since I thought he'd hit around 26000 and top 25 all time in points.

So let me just make clear up front:

1. I think DeRozan at this point is likely to get into the Hall due to his late career statistical excellence making his longevity really pop.

2. I wouldn't vote for him, but I'm not really looking to enter into another argument about that.

What's catching my eye here is your focus on cumulative scoring totals, which in my experience isn't how hoops Hall cases are typically made, but absolutely IS how baseball Hall cases are made. ("He got 3000 hits - and we don't have proof he used steroids - so he's in!")

So my question to you would be: What evidence do you have for hoops voters thinking specifically in these terms?

Emphasizing again: I'm not saying that longevity doesn't help a guy's case - it clearly does. But there's a difference between voters a) being gradually more impressed with the body of work a long longevity guys has, as opposed to b) looking at cumulative scoring leader and deciding guys are in when they breach the right threshold.

I think we know that to some extent there had been the idea that if you hit 20,000 points you were going to be a HOFer. Maybe it was coincidental, but it was also something I saw referred to in article pretty frequently, until basically Antawn Jamison and Joe Johnson got there. So it has existed.

I think that while I've mentioned the number, more than the number the other thing I've mentioned is the ranking of where it places him. 26,000 placing him in the top 25, 28 and change putting him solidly in that top 15.

I think it's not that Derozan's hitting a specific number, but that the specific number he is likely to hit will be placing him in an echelon of scorers who are undeniably HOFers. It is one thing to have 21 or 22000 points and be around a lot of well known guys but also Hal Greer, Walt Bellamy and Dantley. All HOFers, but they're not household names. You can make an argument to most people yeah Derozan was a good player for a long time, but he had empty stats, didn't play well in the playoffs, was a lousy defender etc.

But because his current output will probably place him ahead of Hakeem and Oscar and maybe with a good closeout above Carmelo and in particular Shaq, and well ahead of many no doubt HOFers like Reggie, Iverson, Ray Allen, I think that lifts him up in greater esteem (even though his impact is obviously not near that although he's not that far off of Carmelo).

I won't debate the whether he "should" or not. I get the arguments for why he shouldn't. But I am noting that I think for the above reasons, he will be considered a surefire HOFer.

So I can't help but note that you're alluding to a putative rule that has since been shown to have never been a rule, and a key part of why we'd expect that such a rule wouldn't work for evaluating players of today: Longevity with modern medicine.

Re: put him in the echelon of scorers in the Hall. Right, but if people aren't using cume totals directly then this is moot.

But as I've said, I think the shine he's getting deep into his career is likely to tip the balance.

[dautjazz]

At first I was thinking no, but honestly 6 All-Star appearances, 3 All-NBA teams, and he'll likely surpass 25k. That's quite an impressive resume, and the bar for HOF is definitely lower than that.

[madskillz8]

At first I was thinking no, but honestly 6 All-Star appearances, 3 All-NBA teams, and he'll likely surpass 25k. That's quite an impressive resume, and the bar for HOF is definitely lower than that.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_career.html

Every other non-active player has made the list, and he's still a 25+ scorer, thus he's a lock IMO. Considering the way he plays (relies on fundamentals and footwork than athleticism), I'd say he'll likely reach 28.000-30.000, top 15 all-time (with Harden, Curry).

[dautjazz]

At first I was thinking no, but honestly 6 All-Star appearances, 3 All-NBA teams, and he'll likely surpass 25k. That's quite an impressive resume, and the bar for HOF is definitely lower than that.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_career.html

Every other non-active player has made the list, and he's still a 25+ scorer, thus he's a lock IMO. Considering the way he plays (relies on fundamentals and footwork than athleticism), I'd say he'll likely reach 28.000-30.000, top 15 all-time (with Harden, Curry).

Yeah he's a shoe in. Simply his name doesn't scream HOFer to me, because he was never a superstar, and I've probably underrated him most of his career.

[canada_dry]

Yes.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[ken6199]

He is in the Joe Johnson tier. Good, consistent scorer with a long NBA career and managed to stay injury free. Good discipline on conditioning too which is often overlooked. The type of player with their consistency overwhelm the lack of an insane peak, but doesn't really elevate a team's ceiling nor does much else outside of scoring.

Slightly above JJ though, so if JJ goes in, DD must be in (pretty low bar for both).

[slick_watts]

he's borderline. i think joe johnson is an apt comparison, and he's borderline also. if either of them make it i think it will take awhile.

[Effigy]

He will get in, But no, he should not. Basketball reference currently places him at 52.9% chance of getting in. Even better than Joe Johnson.

[Quattro]

It's already the Hall of Pretty Good so why not. Plus it will apparently piss of Drake which will make me happy

[Johnny Bball]

Lol. Everyone with 20k+ points got into the HOF save one player, Tom Chambers who had 20049. Derozan is at 24,000 points and counting, and in great shape. He's a lock.

4 years of this same question and some people are no closer to figuring it out.

[Lockdown504090]

Lol. Everyone with 20k+ points got into the HOF save one player, Tom Chambers who had 20049. Derozan is at 24,000 points and counting, and in great shape. He's a lock.

4 years of this same question and some people are no closer to figuring it out.

He’s going to finish top 20 in scoring, like wtf are we talking about?