2027 NBA Draft Class

[Hoopz Afrik]

Obinna Ekezie, Jr. has recaptured my attention.

[Duke4life831]

I was high on this guy last year and still high on him for this draft. I think Dame Sarr is going to be one of the safer draft picks in a really bad draft. I think his floor is Jaden McDaniels. And in this draft, if you can get a Jaden McDaniels top 10, youd take it and run. So far in the exhibitions, Sarr has been far more aggressive on the offensive side, especially in the half court and his handle is still pretty weak, but for his size he has a hell of a quick first step.

But I think he enters the league and is an elite defender at the 2 and 3 spots. Then with time he should add some muscle (has the frame to get really strong) and his shot is slow, but not broken. I think his floor is very high

His floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. If any player in this draft had that floor, they’d be the consensus number 1 player in the draft.

Did you mean to say Jalen McDaniels?

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

[CptCrunch]

Tyran's age is fine. He is just a normal plus one aged prospect these days. This is called the birthday-month cohort effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_age_effect). Kids who are old for their class do better academically and athletically - this is well studied in economics and sociology.

Wealthy families in NYC even plan to have children who are oldest for their school year. One year late start (for oldest kid relative to youngest kid) in school has zero impact on their life at end of life, but has a tangible measurable impact on their success in everything.

This is also the reason why NBA rookie these days tend to be plus one aged like Tyran because these kids are naturally going to be bigger, more mature, experience earlier puberty, be given the most cycles, reps and attention through their basketball journey.

I'm not going to fault Tyran for being plus one aged as practically everyone is plus one aged these days. Out of the top 10 on Tankathon, 5 out of the top 10 are plus 1 aged despite all of them being freshmen. The correct average age based on a Sept 1 school cutoff is 19 years, 1 month at time of draft.

I agree with many aspects of your point, as well as that it only will have a minor impact on Tyran's stock, but the fact that 5 of the top 10 on Tankathon are not +1 aged directly conflicts with your idea that "practically everyone is plus one aged these days".

Even in last year's draft, none of the top 3 rookies were +1 aged, alongside Keaton Wagler and Kingston Flemings in the top ten. The year before that, Flagg (who really could be seen as a "-1" type of prospect), Harper, Bailey, Tre Johnson, Jeremiah Fears, Demin, and Maluach were all not +1 aged, being aged appropriately for their draft class. That's 7 of the top 10 in the class. This shows that it's still extremely common for someone to not be very old for their class, and be selected in the NBA draft. The year before that, it was 5 of the top ten, and the year before that, it was 4 out of the top ten. No matter what year it is, you'll find these appropriately aged prospects tend at the top of the class (which is where Tyran is expected to go as well).

We don't need to look at one year. Here is a list of last 5 years, all lottery freshman or international age on draft day.



Do you see the clear bias here?

We can calculate odds ratio 1) being drafted in lottery, 2) odds of being drafted top 5 while being older than class fair age versus younger than fair age.

In Lottery: Odds Ratio - 1.50x (95% CI 0.92–2.45)
Top 5: Odds Ratio - 2.50x (95% CI 1.13–5.45)

Literally there is a 2.5x times odds of going top 5 if you are older than the expected average for your class. This distribution is absolutely NOT uniform in any way. This is not some drastic effect that prevents success if you are young, but damn is it visible in everything in life; the wiki even has a link to a French basketball study - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2008.00781.x

Code: Select all

year  name                 pos age
----  ----                 --- ---
2021  Cade Cunningham      1   19.84
2021  Evan Mobley          3   20.11
2021  Scottie Barnes       4   19.99
2021  Jalen Suggs          5   20.15
2021  Josh Giddey          6   18.8
2021  Ziaire Williams      10  19.88
2021  Joshua Primo         12  18.6
2021  Moses Moody          14  19.16
2022  Paolo Banchero       1   19.61
2022  Chet Holmgren        2   20.15
2022  Jabari Smith Jr.     3   19.11
2022  Shaedon Sharpe       7   19.07
2022  Dyson Daniels        8   19.27
2022  Jeremy Sochan        9   19.09
2022  Ousmane Dieng        11  19.09
2022  Jalen Duren          13  18.6
2023  Victor Wembanyama    1   19.46
2023  Brandon Miller       2   20.58
2023  Anthony Black        6   19.42
2023  Bilal Coulibaly      7   18.9
2023  Jarace Walker        8   19.8
2023  Taylor Hendricks     9   19.58
2023  Cason Wallace        10  19.62
2023  Jett Howard          11  19.77
2023  Dereck Lively II     12  19.36
2023  Gradey Dick          13  19.59
2024  Zaccharie Risacher   1   19.22
2024  Alex Sarr            2   19.17
2024  Reed Sheppard        3   20.01
2024  Stephon Castle       4   19.65
2024  Tidjane Salaün       6   18.88
2024  Rob Dillingham       8   19.47
2024  Cody Williams        10  19.6
2024  Nikola Topić         12  18.88
2024  Bub Carrington       14  18.93
2025  Cooper Flagg         1   18.51
2025  Dylan Harper         2   19.32
2025  VJ Edgecombe         3   19.9
2025  Kon Knueppel         4   19.89
2025  Ace Bailey           5   18.87
2025  Tre Johnson          6   19.3
2025  Jeremiah Fears       7   18.7
2025  Egor Dëmin           8   19.31
2025  Khaman Maluach       10  18.78
2025  Noa Essengue         12  18.52
2026  AJ Dybantsa          1   19.4
2026  Darryn Peterson      2   19.43
2026  Cameron Boozer       3   18.93
2026  Caleb Wilson         4   19.93
2026  Keaton Wagler        5   19.38
2026  Mikel Brown Jr.      6   20.22
2026  Darius Acuff Jr.     7   19.6
2026  Kingston Flemings    8   19.47
2026  Brayden Burries      10  20.76
2026  Nate Ament           13  19.53
2027  Tyran Stokes         1   19.7
2027  Caleb Holt           2   19.57
2027  Jordan Smith Jr.     3   19.78
2027  Stefan Joksimović    4   18.6
2027  Bruce Branch III     5   18.66
2027  Anthony Thompson     6   18.87
2027  Cameron Williams     7   19.66
2027  Baba Oladotun        8   18.52
2027  Brandon McCoy Jr.    9   19.61
2027  Hugo Yimga-Moukouri  10  18.97


Here is a plot for every freshman (no international) drafted in past 10 years + 2027 projected.



Yeah being older is really powerful in terms of an effect.

[crows2]

I was high on this guy last year and still high on him for this draft. I think Dame Sarr is going to be one of the safer draft picks in a really bad draft. I think his floor is Jaden McDaniels. And in this draft, if you can get a Jaden McDaniels top 10, youd take it and run. So far in the exhibitions, Sarr has been far more aggressive on the offensive side, especially in the half court and his handle is still pretty weak, but for his size he has a hell of a quick first step.

But I think he enters the league and is an elite defender at the 2 and 3 spots. Then with time he should add some muscle (has the frame to get really strong) and his shot is slow, but not broken. I think his floor is very high

His floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. If any player in this draft had that floor, they’d be the consensus number 1 player in the draft.

Did you mean to say Jalen McDaniels?

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

That may be your opinion, but the reality is his floor is not Jaden McDaniels. As I said, if that was the case he’d be the consensus number 1 pick in this draft.

McDaniels has proven to be an NBA starter quality offensive player, on top of his defence. You can’t possibly argue that about Sarr’s offence at this stage of his career. His floor at this stage is being a negative offensive player who doesn’t get minutes based on that.

[CP War Hawks]

His floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. If any player in this draft had that floor, they’d be the consensus number 1 player in the draft.

Did you mean to say Jalen McDaniels?

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

That may be your opinion, but the reality is his floor is not Jaden McDaniels. As I said, if that was the case he’d be the consensus number 1 pick in this draft.

McDaniels has proven to be an NBA starter quality offensive player, on top of his defence. You can’t possibly argue that about Sarr’s offence at this stage of his career. His floor at this stage is being a negative offensive player who doesn’t get minutes based on that.

McDaniels is one of the premiere two way forwards in the league. It's like some Risacher guys fixated on him being a worthwhile top pick when it was clear he had way more bust potential.

[Duke4life831]

His floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. If any player in this draft had that floor, they’d be the consensus number 1 player in the draft.

Did you mean to say Jalen McDaniels?

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

That may be your opinion, but the reality is his floor is not Jaden McDaniels. As I said, if that was the case he’d be the consensus number 1 pick in this draft.

McDaniels has proven to be an NBA starter quality offensive player, on top of his defence. You can’t possibly argue that about Sarr’s offence at this stage of his career. His floor at this stage is being a negative offensive player who doesn’t get minutes based on that.

Yes exactly, its my opinion. I also dont think Jaden McDaniels would be the consensus #1 pick. He's entering year 7 and has never come close to an all star game, he has yet to have a season where he averaged more than 15ppg, PER of above 14, a BPM above 0 and his only personal accolade is one 2nd team All Defense. That as a floor doesnt make someone the consensus #1 pick. Like I dont think Sarr has 20ppg potential in the NBA, and without that as a perimeter player, youre not going to be a #1 pick.

Again he is the best defender Ive seen wear a Duke uniform. He is 6'8 with a 7' wingspan and high level athleticism. The form on his jumper isnt broken. And yes Im high on him, literally why I made a post about him. I would take him in the top 10 of this draft without much hesitation.

[babyjax13]

It's way more fun when people have strong positions; I'm totally fine w/that being your position. I think if I were going to compare someone in this draft to McDaniels it would probably be Branch ... but he is sooooo raw.

[crows2]

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

That may be your opinion, but the reality is his floor is not Jaden McDaniels. As I said, if that was the case he’d be the consensus number 1 pick in this draft.

McDaniels has proven to be an NBA starter quality offensive player, on top of his defence. You can’t possibly argue that about Sarr’s offence at this stage of his career. His floor at this stage is being a negative offensive player who doesn’t get minutes based on that.

Yes exactly, its my opinion. I also dont think Jaden McDaniels would be the consensus #1 pick. He's entering year 7 and has never come close to an all star game, he has yet to have a season where he averaged more than 15ppg, PER of above 14, a BPM above 0 and his only personal accolade is one 2nd team All Defense. That as a floor doesnt make someone the consensus #1 pick. Like I dont think Sarr has 20ppg potential in the NBA, and without that as a perimeter player, youre not going to be a #1 pick.

Again he is the best defender Ive seen wear a Duke uniform. He is 6'8 with a 7' wingspan and high level athleticism. The form on his jumper isnt broken. And yes Im high on him, literally why I made a post about him. I would take him in the top 10 of this draft without much hesitation.

An All-Defense guy, who’s one of the most valuable contributors (both on offense and defense) on a Conference Finals team, is absolutely the consensus number 1 pick in this draft at this stage. Perhaps Stokes goes absolutely bonkers in college, in which case you take him first, but with no college evidence, you take the sure thing. You’re doing the draft wrong if that’s not the case.

[crows2]

It's way more fun when people have strong positions; I'm totally fine w/that being your position. I think if I were going to compare someone in this draft to McDaniels it would probably be Branch ... but he is sooooo raw.

Opinions can be wrong though. Saying Sarr has a floor of McDaniels shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the concept of a “floor”. He can rate Sarr extremely highly, that’s fine. But to say he (or anyone in this draft) has the floor of McDaniels is just plain incorrect.

You simply cannot say that the WORST possible outcome for Sarr is being an All-Defense guy who’s also a crucial offensive contributor on a Conference Finals calibre team. That’s blatantly ignoring variance in prospects’ outcomes and underestimating the difficulty in reaching that level in the NBA.

[babyjax13]

Luigi Suigo looked atrocious against Rutgers. Something to watch.

Also, Branch looks like a different player for BYU. Not an amazing handle or anything, but far better than anything he has shown before. Sarr also looks like a different player: very decisive on offense, not passive.

[DanEu]

Luigi Suigo looked atrocious against Rutgers. Something to watch.

Also, Branch looks like a different player for BYU. Not an amazing handle or anything, but far better than anything he has shown before. Sarr also looks like a different player: very decisive on offense, not passive.

I've watched quite a few games when Suigo played in Europe and he was bad there too.
I get that the scouts like him for his size and soft touch but damn he is really bad on defence. He was hunted on PnR basically every possession and was completely lost in space.
Honestly I just don't see a lotto pick in him.

[BigGargamel]

Excited to see the season kick off tonight! This is a wide open freshman class. I expect a couple of Wagler types to come out of nowhere.

Let's make sure not to crown anyone kings too early, just because they dropped 30 on SW Central State Tech A&M

[MoreyWins]

Loved what Branch showed in the exhibition games. Dribbling, passing, shooting, defense, rebounding, low turnovers. I want to see him scale up his responsibilities just to see what's there, but in the BYU offense he looks like a great connector piece.

[BigGargamel]

Ivan Kharchenkov has been my pre-season lottery sleeper. So far, so good.

[King Ken]

I was high on this guy last year and still high on him for this draft. I think Dame Sarr is going to be one of the safer draft picks in a really bad draft. I think his floor is Jaden McDaniels. And in this draft, if you can get a Jaden McDaniels top 10, youd take it and run. So far in the exhibitions, Sarr has been far more aggressive on the offensive side, especially in the half court and his handle is still pretty weak, but for his size he has a hell of a quick first step.

But I think he enters the league and is an elite defender at the 2 and 3 spots. Then with time he should add some muscle (has the frame to get really strong) and his shot is slow, but not broken. I think his floor is very high

His floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. If any player in this draft had that floor, they’d be the consensus number 1 player in the draft.

Did you mean to say Jalen McDaniels?

Like I said before, he’s the best defensive prospect I’ve seen put on a Duke jersey (been a die hard Duke fan for over 20 years)

I’m extremely high on him.

I like Sarr but his floor is definitely not Jaden McDaniels. McDaniels had so much talent he didn't showcase in college we see in the NBA.

[Felixians4]

Ivan Kharchenkov has been my pre-season lottery sleeper. So far, so good.

He is lottery lock in my view

[crows2]

Ivan Kharchenkov has been my pre-season lottery sleeper. So far, so good.

He is lottery lock in my view

No one’s a lottery lock 1 game into the season lol.

[Felixians4]

Ivan Kharchenkov has been my pre-season lottery sleeper. So far, so good.

He is lottery lock in my view

No one’s a lottery lock 1 game into the season lol.

He was that since this summer. He is quality NBA role player in Josh Hart archetype

[King Ken]

No one from this year would be in my top 9 from last year but I like the upside of a lot of these guys this year more than previous years

arafan diane is my #1 prospect. Raw and more ready on D and in the post offensively than the rest of his game but he's a potential rich man's Andrew Bynum for me. He is probably not worth a top 10 pick in most years but I have to project as well and his upside is off the charts.

I like Ekezie Jr but his strength is my worry for now

Ponder is promising to me.

Ngongba has always been been promising for me

So many bigs this year I love.

As for guards it's too early to call but I haven't seen anyone that gives me all star vibes yet. I haven't watched Branch since HS. Let me see his improvement. It's early but there isn't even a reason to think anyone would Crack my top 9 from last year yet.

[Jstock12]

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