2026 NBA Playoffs - West First Round - #3 Denver Nuggets vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (Series tied 1-1)

[Alatan]

Basically 1/4th of Aaron Gordon's makes this season (15 of 61) came in 2 games (10/23 at GSW, 3/14 at LAL).

His splits are interesting too.....
In Denver (19 games): 26-80 (.325)
On the road (17 games): 35-77 (.455)

some stats from AG's 3pt shooting since coming to Denver

season 3PT% FT%

21-22 33.5% 74.3%
22-23 34.7% 60.8%
23-24 29.0% 65.8%
24-25 43.6% 81.0%
25-26 38.9% 76.7%

Big difference come in 24-25 season after his bad 3pt shooting in 24 playoffs. He moved into warehouse he turned into gym, so he is living in the gym now. Differance come in all aspects of his shooting - midrange, FT...

You could split his season into 3 parts
1st start of season 13 games 44% 3PT% (2.2-4.8)
2nd coming back from 1st injury, January 33% (1.4-4.2)
3rd end of season after 2nd injury, 39.4% March, 31.6% April. Fluctuations are result of coming back from injuries, and trying to get back into game flow. He also hit 4 3s in comeback win against Portland, two big cluch ones (4/7). He is not Murray or THJ or Cam or Strawther as designed 3pt shooters but you can't leave him open. Brown also had solid 3pt shooting season (good % small volume), and Jones has history as good shooter.

Two players you could test as 3pt shooters are Braun (bad this season, but 38.4% and 39.7% in previous two) and Watson (41.1% this season, but not much of a shooter in previous 3).

And there is question with Jokic's elbow and his shooting post injury too...

All everyone can talk about on Gordon is how different he is now because "he's developed into a 40-plus percent 3-point shooter" in the time since the series two years ago.

But does anyone want to take a guess at what Gordon shot during that series?

Spoiler:

Game 1: 0-1
Game 2: 3-5
Game 3: 3-4
Game 4: 2-2
Game 5: 0-1
Game 6: 2-4
Game 7: 0-0
TOTAL: 10-17 (.588)


.....and they still lost.

Its not just about the shooting percentages. In that series the Wolves intentionally left AG open to allow Gobert to roam and double Jokic. Thats because Gordon was not a good or a willing shooter.

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

[Klomp]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

[Woodsanity]

Most likely Denver in 6 but the wolves have the tools to win in 6 or 7. I will never count out the wolves against the Nuggets.

[BelgradeNugget]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

Last season in 7 game series vs OKC he was 15-34. 44%. One was game winning clutch 3.
But as we agreed nothing to do with this series

[Alatan]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

I mean that they wont be able to leave Gordon alone in the corner and not be torched. Taking 17 threes through the whole series where he was often alone in the corner is not a big number. thats less than 3 threes taken per game. If the same tactic is used id expect him to take up to 7 threes a game and make a good number of them.

[Ambrose]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

10/17 in 7 games. That's 2.4 3ptA/game. He averaged 4.4 3ptA/game this year. He averaged more makes per game this season than he did that series too, because he shoots a lot more of them now.

[shrink]

I don’t know how the Nuggets guard Randle AND Naz Reid AND Jaden McDaniels?

[ooy68utfjuxdg]

No Western Conference Finals for the T-Wolves this year, Fam

You wanted your King Joker Hakeem the Dream playoff run, and now you're going to get it, starting with beating MJ's (ostensible) son, book it

Say it with me, Mile High Might 4Ever

[Klomp]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

Last season in 7 game series vs OKC he was 15-34. 44%. One was game winning clutch 3.
But as we agreed nothing to do with this series

Your whole schtick was how after his horrible shooting cost his team the 2023-24 season, he bought himself a gym and became the greatest shooter since Steph Curry. So yes, it's absolutely relevant.

[Klomp]

Things are different now. Gordon will take and make those corner threes even if you let him shoot 20 of them.

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

I mean that they wont be able to leave Gordon alone in the corner and not be torched. Taking 17 threes through the whole series where he was often alone in the corner is not a big number. thats less than 3 threes taken per game. If the same tactic is used id expect him to take up to 7 threes a game and make a good number of them.

He's only attempted seven 3-pointers in a game three times all season....if he wants to think he's Steph Curry, by all means go right ahead.

[Klomp]

I don’t know how the Nuggets guard Randle AND Naz Reid AND Jaden McDaniels?

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon.

I see a pattern. Aaron Gordon is both Steph Curry AND Victor Wembanyama!

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[guynumber45]

No Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones could honestly swing this series. Those 2 along with Gordon pretty much make up the Nuggets defense

[Wallace_Wallace]

Denver in 6

They got healthy at the perfect time. Watson, Braun and Brown are all dogs defensively on the perimeter. Edwards and maybe Randle are the only player who can create for others; neither of them can afford an off night.

One thing I think the Nuggets will do is play Gordon/Jokic/Valenciunas at the same time to crank up the physicality to the max. The Wolves won’t be able to matchup like they could a couple seasons back.

[BelgradeNugget]

You mean like how he took 17 of them in that series, and made 10 of them?

For the record, I don't expect Minnesota to match up the same way. It will probably be Gobert on Jokic most of the time when both of them are on the court.

However, I think the overall defensive philosophy will remain the same. Make Jokic a shooter rather than a passer, but willing to live with 3-pointers from Gordon and Braun over Murray, Johnson and Hardaway. If Gordon goes 10-17 again, it doesn't mean it's a death knell.

Last season in 7 game series vs OKC he was 15-34. 44%. One was game winning clutch 3.
But as we agreed nothing to do with this series

Your whole schtick was how after his horrible shooting cost his team the 2023-24 season, he bought himself a gym and became the greatest shooter since Steph Curry. So yes, it's absolutely relevant.

I never compared him with Curry. It is Murray this season having Curry's volume, and accuracy.
And what was your point? It was 10-17 so it will be 10-17 again? OK. Good argument

[BelgradeNugget]

I don’t know how the Nuggets guard Randle AND Naz Reid AND Jaden McDaniels?

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon.

I see a pattern. Aaron Gordon is both Steph Curry AND Victor Wembanyama!

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon. Spencer Jones
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon. Cam Johnson
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon. Christian Braun

Best defender for Nikola Jokic? God (it's not my gameplan it is Julius Randle's)

[PhilBlackson]

Ngl I haven’t watched many TWolves games in awhile but I’ve heard Ant hasn’t looked himself for the past month and if that continues then the series may only go 5 but I’ll give benefit of the doubt and say 6 like most people think.

[shrink]

I don’t know how the Nuggets guard Randle AND Naz Reid AND Jaden McDaniels?

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon.

I see a pattern. Aaron Gordon is both Steph Curry AND Victor Wembanyama!

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon. Spencer Jones
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon. Cam Johnson
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon. Christian Braun

Best defender for Nikola Jokic? God (it's not my gameplan it is Julius Randle's)

I think there are going to be games where teams score 125 and lose-

[nomansland]

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon.

I see a pattern. Aaron Gordon is both Steph Curry AND Victor Wembanyama!

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.(
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon. Spencer Jones
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon. Cam Johnson
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon. Christian Braun

Best defender for Nikola Jokic? God (it's not my gameplan it is Julius Randle's)

I think there are going to be games where teams score 125 and lose-

Absolutely.

I was thinking about the who's gonna stop [player XYZ]? argument, and from Denver's perspective, they don't really have to shut down anyone. They just have to be decent enough on defense to not get blown out, take care of the ball, and execute their offense like they have been all season. They have the 3rd fewest turnovers in the league and are running a historically efficient offense. It could get hairy for them in spots but all in all I feel pretty good about this series.

[BelgradeNugget]

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon.

I see a pattern. Aaron Gordon is both Steph Curry AND Victor Wembanyama!

Best defender for Julius Randle? Aaron Gordon.
Best defender for Naz Reid? Aaron Gordon. Spencer Jones
Best defender for Jaden McDaniels? Aaron Gordon. Cam Johnson
Best defender for Anthony Edwards? Aaron Gordon. Christian Braun

Best defender for Nikola Jokic? God (it's not my gameplan it is Julius Randle's)

I think there are going to be games where teams score 125 and lose-

Agree. I was joking with God's reference, of course. I just wanted to point Nuggets do have designed defenders on Wolves best scorers. Does that mean Ant won't score 40+ pts in few games. I don't think so. But Braun can do as good job as any above average defender on him (not counting OKC's guard rotation here). Off the bench Nuggets have Brown for Ayo. All Wolves best offensive players are covered with Nuggets adequate defenders except for Naz if both Jones and Watson are out.

But yes there will be some high scoring games for both teams, and also some games where neither team can hit an ocean from the boat. It is how it goes in the playoffs.