2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ - if you are looking for great role players then last years draft was definitely for you when we had the 6th pick. But as Dat has been pointing out on this board for years is "what is the goal"? Do we want to be a competent team or do we want to try and build a championship contender? If its the former then your strategy would certainly help us reach the playoffs next year or the year after. However, the only way to ever become an elite team is to have elite talent and drafting "great role players" when you have a top 4 pick is not acceptable.

Once you have a couple of really talented players then you need to fill in around them with the type of players you are good at finding but lets face it, as good as some of your favs have been relative to draft position (Blair, Milsap, Faried) I really don't see any of them as being more than the 3rd or 4th best players on a elite team and that's at best. They are the type of guys who can put you over the top but they don't get you to the stratosphere - you need true upper echelon guys for that and while Beal or MKG may flop they also may turn out to be top flight players and that's what we need to take a chance on more than anything.

Of course, we really just need to land Davis.....

Nobody thought of Faried as an elite talent outside of myself and a few others this time last season.

I will say again, Will Barton at NBA SG will be elite this time next season, IMO.

Trading down, improving chemistry by offloading negatives, acquiring future assets along with Barton (or Crowder) is the way I would proceed.

[7-Day Dray]

Lebron usually creates his offensive advantages when he receives the ball while in motion. He isn't good at putting a defender in a recovery position off the dribble unless he already has a full tank of steam running down the court. Lebron doesn't have an explosive first step which is usually the most deadly way to put a defender into a recovery position.

LeBron USED to have an explosive 1st step, but he no longer does because of the weight he's put on. Go watch those classic vids when he was on the Cavs, and tell me you don't see the freakiest athlete in NBA history.

[Doctor Bombay]

Hello there.. I stumbled upon this discussion a little while back while looking for some analysis on potential Wiz draft picks. There's some really great stuff here.

Nivek, I have a question regarding YODA, if the answer isn't proprietary. (Sorry if this has been asked & answered)

Anyhow, I'm guessing you regressed some measure of NBA success on a bunch of college-level predictors (presumably for players out of college), then used the coefficients to generate a score to rank potential draftees. The question is, assuming I understand YODA correctly, what do you use as your measure of NBA success?

Thanks in advance (even if you don't want to answer )

You're more or less correct about the process. I used a variety of measure for NBA success. I hate the word "proprietary" but it more or less applies in this case. I've burned way too much time on this to just give away the process. Need to at least get an academic paper or a spot at Sloan next year or something.

My guess would have been "some sort of weird hybrid of a bunch of stuff."

RE: Beal, I'm heartened by the fact that his season ranks so highly among freshman SG seasons.

[closg00]

CCJ - if you are looking for great role players then last years draft was definitely for you when we had the 6th pick. But as Dat has been pointing out on this board for years is "what is the goal"? Do we want to be a competent team or do we want to try and build a championship contender? If its the former then your strategy would certainly help us reach the playoffs next year or the year after. However, the only way to ever become an elite team is to have elite talent and drafting "great role players" when you have a top 4 pick is not acceptable.

Once you have a couple of really talented players then you need to fill in around them with the type of players you are good at finding but lets face it, as good as some of your favs have been relative to draft position (Blair, Milsap, Faried) I really don't see any of them as being more than the 3rd or 4th best players on a elite team and that's at best. They are the type of guys who can put you over the top but they don't get you to the stratosphere - you need true upper echelon guys for that and while Beal or MKG may flop they also may turn out to be top flight players and that's what we need to take a chance on more than anything.

Of course, we really just need to land Davis.....

Nobody thought of Faried as an elite talent outside of myself and a few others this time last season.

I will say again, Will Barton at NBA SG will be elite this time next season, IMO.

Trading down, improving chemistry by offloading negatives, acquiring future assets along with Barton (or Crowder) is the way I would proceed.

This article on Larry Bird could lend some support to the your draft philosophy/strategy. Bird re-built the Pacers with wisely chosen mid-lottery picks and trades. It isn't the easiest route to playoff success, but Bird had put the Pacers in a good position going-forward, w/o going into lux-tax.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/79383 ... utive-year

[truwizfan4evr]

Anthony Davis is the consensus No. 1 pick in the June draft, but who will be No. 2?

According to one NBA talent evaluator, Andre Drummond is talented enough to go second.

“If Drummond impresses (during individual workouts), he’ll be that guy,” one scout said. “If he doesn’t, and just looks so-so, he could drop fast. There might not be a bigger unknown at the moment.”

One NBA exec believes Drummond can be great with the right roster in place.

“He’s so young and in need of some guidance, but if you think he can be anything like Andrew Bynum, you gotta take him,” said one Western Conference GM. “If you’re rebuilding, and most teams in the lottery are, you could do a lot worse. He’d be a good piece, maybe great, if you can team him with another really good player.”

[truwizfan4evr]

Would anyone be up set if Wizards was that team to pick Drummond at 2 if he impress at workouts?

[jivelikenice]

We don't need him. Sorry, but another project big especially in the top 5 is not what we need. Seraphin's emergence also lessens the needs.

[Dat2U]

If were drafting at 4 or 5 and MKG & Beal are off the board, we'd be fools not to at least consider Drummond. Not saying he should definitely be the pick, but there is alwaya a need for a big man with elite physical tools and the ability to impact the game defensively. We certainly could use some length in the front court

[fishercob]

If were drafting at 4 or 5 and MKG & Beal are off the board, we'd be fools not to at least consider Drummond. Not saying he should definitely be the pick, but there is alwaya a need for a big man with elite physical tools and the ability to impact the game defensively. We certainly could use some length in the front court

I'd consider him. Then I'd look at how woeful he was this year despite his physical tools and I'd let someone else take the risk.

[WizarDynasty]

i prefer Bynum over Camby has my number one pick any day.

[Jay81]

Wall needs Barnes and Barnes needs Wall. We need a sf if we pick 5

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/05/17/12/N ... eedID=8888

[truwizfan4evr]

Wall needs Barnes and Barnes needs Wall. We need a sf if we pick 5

http://www.foxsportsohio.com/05/17/12/N ... eedID=8888

I been saying it for a while now on this board I have a gut feeling that we will get Barnes. I dont want him in my top 4 picks I have a feeling that he will be the guy wiz take.

[Jay81]

I bet Barnes is a better pro than Trob

[Dat2U]

Drafting Barnes in the top 5 would be an abject disaster.

Having polish means absolutely nothing if your an overrated, low energy player who often floats during games.

And to top it off, Barnes best trick (his shooting ability) isn't even that good. Barnes was the 3rd best player on his team last season, and probably it's 4th most impactful player.

[Dat2U]

If were drafting at 4 or 5 and MKG & Beal are off the board, we'd be fools not to at least consider Drummond. Not saying he should definitely be the pick, but there is alwaya a need for a big man with elite physical tools and the ability to impact the game defensively. We certainly could use some length in the front court

I'd consider him. Then I'd look at how woeful he was this year despite his physical tools and I'd let someone else take the risk.

If people can make all sorts of excuses for Lamb about UConn's offense (and he's a guard), then wouldn't the same hold true for Drummond who was similarly productive, far more raw and a year younger?

[Jay81]

Drafting Barnes in the top 5 would be an abject disaster.

Having polish means absolutely nothing if your an overrated, low energy player who often floats during games.

And to top it off, Barnes best trick (his shooting ability) isn't even that good. Barnes was the 3rd best player on his team last season, and probably it's 4th most impactful player.

alot of people think he will be much better in the NBA. He had a 40 point college game. I think he will surprise

[Dat2U]

Drafting Barnes in the top 5 would be an abject disaster.

Having polish means absolutely nothing if your an overrated, low energy player who often floats during games.

And to top it off, Barnes best trick (his shooting ability) isn't even that good. Barnes was the 3rd best player on his team last season, and probably it's 4th most impactful player.

alot of people think he will be much better in the NBA. He had a 40 point college game. I think he will surprise

And why will he be much better? He struggles to create good shots against the FSU & Clemson's of the world! Why is he suddenly going to be a better pro player than he was in college. He was decidely mediorcre in college. He's had a TS% of .520 & .528. Maybe just maybe he's not the shooter or player projected coming of high school.

[MF23]

If Barnes can be another Shane Battier type of player than he deserves to be a lottory pick but not a top 5 pick.

[Jay81]

wernt we saying the same thing about harden when he struggled towards the end of the season and was a disaster in the ncaa tournament?

Barnes will be a better shooter in the pros. he is going to average 16-18 pts 4-5 reb a night and shoot about 45%. Will be a great fit with Wall.

Its not like barnes is 22 either

[fishercob]

If were drafting at 4 or 5 and MKG & Beal are off the board, we'd be fools not to at least consider Drummond. Not saying he should definitely be the pick, but there is alwaya a need for a big man with elite physical tools and the ability to impact the game defensively. We certainly could use some length in the front court

I'd consider him. Then I'd look at how woeful he was this year despite his physical tools and I'd let someone else take the risk.

If people can make all sorts of excuses for Lamb about UConn's offense (and he's a guard), then wouldn't the same hold true for Drummond who was similarly productive, far more raw and a year younger?

Well, I'm not interested in Lamb either

29% from the line. I can't get past that.

Listen, you made me this way! I used to be all about rationalizing prospects I wanted to like -- Ty Thomas, Corey Brewer, Luke Babbitt -- overlooking obvious shortcomings and explaining their deficiencies away. You should be happy that I've turned in to more of a realist.