Official Trade Thread XXII (2/6/13 - 4/1/13)

[jivelikenice]

I wouldn't give them pur pick for Ilyasova. He's a solid stretch 4, but iving them the pick and taking on that much contract is bailing them out. If they want to get out of the mediocre spot they sit in, they have have one of ur expirings plus a guy on a rookie deal (i.e. Singleton or Vesely) at most. Why should we swap our way into the mediocre spot they're in unless the deal is on our terms?

[fishercob]

I wouldn't give them pur pick for Ilyasova. He's a solid stretch 4, but iving them the pick and taking on that much contract is bailing them out. If they want to get out of the mediocre spot they sit in, they have have one of ur expirings plus a guy on a rookie deal (i.e. Singleton or Vesely) at most. Why should we swap our way into the mediocre spot they're in unless the deal is on our terms?

They're a mediocre team, but Ilyasova is not a mediocre player. He's good. He's got positive trade value. I don't think they regret the contract they gave him, nor should they.

[fishercob]

Another guy I wonder about is Mike Beasley. As Nivek has pointed out on several occasions, he was a complete monster his one year at K-State. After getting dealt to Minnesota he spent two seasons playing out of position, and thus pretty poorly. So Phoenix then signs him last summer -- and promptly decides to play him out of position again.

He's been horrendous this year, and I'm concerned that at $6M per year for the next two seasons he doesn't have a great shot of earning his contract. But we could probably get him for bubkus -- like Vesely and Seraphin. Maybe if he's finally given a shot to play the right position, he'd excel. Maybe he'd take well to our strong locker room. Maybe being in his home town would actually be good for him. I know he has had his issues, but by all accounts he is not a bad kid.

Maybe we could even get PHX to throw in some other asset to get rid of him.

[jivelikenice]

I wouldn't give them pur pick for Ilyasova. He's a solid stretch 4, but iving them the pick and taking on that much contract is bailing them out. If they want to get out of the mediocre spot they sit in, they have have one of ur expirings plus a guy on a rookie deal (i.e. Singleton or Vesely) at most. Why should we swap our way into the mediocre spot they're in unless the deal is on our terms?

They're a mediocre team, but Ilyasova is not a mediocre player. He's good. He's got positive trade value. I don't think they regret the contract they gave him, nor should they.

I'm not opposed to trading for his contract in the right deal, but you don't clutter up $8 MM per for 4 more yeras in future cap space AND give a top 10 pick for him. If you trade for him, it has to be in additon to us adding another asset through our pick, not in lieu of it. He's not the last piece of the puzzle and do you really want to tie up that much long-term $ potentially in Webster and Ersan?

[Illuminaire]

Phoenix is notoriously cheap. I wonder if the Wiz could get a 1st (even a future one) out of them for taking on Beasely, if we could give them back an expiring contract or a cheaper player that they actually liked.

>.>

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yea I wouldn't entertain that trade either. Wall can singlehandedly win games on his own...I don't think Horford can. Teague is a middle-of-the-pack point guard. Both are very good players, but there's no superstar potential there.

I feel as though Wall has a high ceiling than those guys, and in this league it's about quality over quantity, or in this case, the potential for quality.

I'm not sure I'd make the trade either, but nobody - with the possible exception of Lebron and an occasional outlyer like the one when Wall scored 47 - wins games singlehandedly.

Horford and a healthy Nene could give the Wiz the best bigmen combo in the NBA - to go with a solid backcourt of Teague and Beal - and a good combo at the 3 of Webster and Ariza - plus a lotto pick in the 2013 draft. It'd be worth considering.

Just in the last two weeks Wall has begun to get superstar calls. He attempted 24 FTs the other night and 15 last game. Wall shot 39 FTs in just two games!

Now when I consider trade ideas it is with the knowledge that Wall has arrived in the eyes of the league.

[WallabyPie]

Phoenix is notoriously cheap. I wonder if the Wiz could get a 1st (even a future one) out of them for taking on Beasely, if we could give them back an expiring contract or a cheaper player that they actually liked.

>.>

Beasley's contract is expiring after next season.

And Phoenix being cheap is a myth. When they were contending they were in top 10 the league in team salaries, paying LT every year. They were selling/trading picks because they needed cap space to spend on veteran players who could contribute straight away, not inexperienced rookies.

[gambitx777]

Beasley has 2 years after this one.
I would offer them a package of kevin, jan, singleton or booker, for beasely.
But they are not giving up a top 5 pick to ditch him. they have a late first as well, we can probably get that off of them.

[WallabyPie]

Beasley has 2 years after this one.
I would offer them a package of kevin, jan, singleton or booker, for beasely.
But they are not giving up a top 5 pick to ditch him. they have a late first as well, we can probably get that off of them.

Last year is only $3M guaranteed. The Suns can use stretch provision if they really want him gone.

[dangermouse]

I wouldnt offer them Kevin or Booker. Jan is available for him though.

Count me firmly off the trade Wall bandwagon again. Untouchable again. I take back everything I said previously.

[willbcocks]

Beasley's terrible and a knuclehead. Why would we go back in that direction?

[fishercob]

Beasley's terrible and a knuclehead. Why would we go back in that direction?

Well, because there may be upside there that hasn't shown itself in a while. But at $6M it probably just doesn't make sense. If we could sign him for a couple million bucks, then sure.

I imagine Phoenix will trade Scola to a vet team that could use a bench scorer as soon they are able to in July and open up the 4 for Beasley. Hm, I wonder if we'd be in the mix for Scola? I think at his new post amnesty salary he'll have a few suitors. Even after a rough season.

[fishercob]

I wouldn't give them pur pick for Ilyasova. He's a solid stretch 4, but iving them the pick and taking on that much contract is bailing them out. If they want to get out of the mediocre spot they sit in, they have have one of ur expirings plus a guy on a rookie deal (i.e. Singleton or Vesely) at most. Why should we swap our way into the mediocre spot they're in unless the deal is on our terms?

They're a mediocre team, but Ilyasova is not a mediocre player. He's good. He's got positive trade value. I don't think they regret the contract they gave him, nor should they.

I'm not opposed to trading for his contract in the right deal, but you don't clutter up $8 MM per for 4 more yeras in future cap space AND give a top 10 pick for him. If you trade for him, it has to be in additon to us adding another asset through our pick, not in lieu of it. He's not the last piece of the puzzle and do you really want to tie up that much long-term $ potentially in Webster and Ersan?

I don't see what we have that MIL would want other than our pick (because EG is terrible at drafting). I think Ilyasova is undervalued because he's Turkish, has a funny name, and has toiled in anonymity in Milwaukee.

You're basically replacing Ariza with him after next season from a salary standpoint and that seems like a win to me.

I'd love to keep our pick and trade for Ersan, but that won't happen. Even when you look at the salary difference I think Ilyasova stands to help us and be a lot more valuable over the next 4 years -- depending on where we pick and who is left. But if you're asking me if I trade Olynyk, Zeller, or Len for him the answer is probably yes.

[Ruzious]

Yea I wouldn't entertain that trade either. Wall can singlehandedly win games on his own...I don't think Horford can. Teague is a middle-of-the-pack point guard. Both are very good players, but there's no superstar potential there.

I feel as though Wall has a high ceiling than those guys, and in this league it's about quality over quantity, or in this case, the potential for quality.

I'm not sure I'd make the trade either, but nobody - with the possible exception of Lebron and an occasional outlyer like the one when Wall scored 47 - wins games singlehandedly.

Horford and a healthy Nene could give the Wiz the best bigmen combo in the NBA - to go with a solid backcourt of Teague and Beal - and a good combo at the 3 of Webster and Ariza - plus a lotto pick in the 2013 draft. It'd be worth considering.

What's the upside of that construction though? Memphis Grizzlies East, IMO. Good teams that can get a decent seed in the playoffs for a couple year run. But without a superstar to lift all the ships, as soon as any one of those key players left or declined, the whole thing could take a major step back. And I don't think the group would be nearly good enough to win a championship. Beal is the only one who would have significant upside.

Whereas if Wall turns into a superstar, that's a decade of legit opportunity to build a contender around him. Superstars are the most valuable commodity in the NBA by far.

We just need to stand pat with Wall and Beal and make lesser trades and signings around them. They were the best perimeter players of their classes IMO. I think both are future All Stars and I think they'll be the best back court in the NBA in a few seasons. When it's their generation's day, they'll be one of the premier combos of stars in the NBA.

I would be perfectly happy with a Memphis quality team in DC. That'd be 2nd best in the East going forward, and if anything happens to Lebron - he is a free agent after next season - a solid shot at getting to the NBA Championship. That's the goal.

[fishercob]

More on Ilyasova:

Over their careers, he's similar to the vaunted Ryan Anderson -- not as impactful on offense, but much stronger on the defensive boards. This season, after both guys have been paid, they're having very similar seasons. Ersan is still markedly better on the defensive glass but has closed the gap significantly; he's shooting better from the floor and from 3 (42%!), boarding more and is lower usage.

[fishercob]

I just wanna flesh this out a little more. Sorry to keep posting on the same topic repeatedly, but I want to think out loud on this.

First thing I need to figure out is when the pick has a salary attached to it for trade purposes. I know it doesn't pre-draft. Does it once the pick is made or only once a guy signs? If it is the former, we'd have to send less out in a trade to make it work. If not, we're likely looking at a 3 for 1 plus the pick. Not ideal.

But for this coming season, our main rotation guys would be Nene, Okafor, Ilyasova, Wbester (I am assuming he stays for BRush/Danny Green money), Ariza, Wall, Beal. The rest would likely be guys like AJ Price, Temple, whomever we didn't trade in the Ilyasova deal, vet minimum guys, maybe a 2nd rounder or undrafted FA makes the team. Much better at the top of the roster, very shallow at the end (but that's not a new phenomenon) and the former outweighs the latter.

Financially, I think we'd be okay under the lux tax, but I'd need someone who keeps a spreadhseet to confirm. Including Vesely in the deal would seem to be pretty important to that end.

Roster-wise, any of our top 3 bigs could play together, which would allow us to monitor minutes and exploit matchups. Ilyasova could even play some small-ball center if we wanted to just spread the floor for John and surround him with shooters (Ersan, Ariza, Webster, Beal).

After next season we'd have a couple options. One would be to let Okafor walk outright, slide Nene to fulltime center and Ersan to fulltime PF. We'd need to come up with viable backups though. We could also retain Okafor for $8-9M and basically whatever discount we get off his previous deal is applied directly to John's extension. Depending on who we sent out in the trade, we'd still only be in the $35 - $40M range with Wall, Nene, Okafor, Webster, Beal, and Ilyasova.

I like that scenario a lot more than rolling the dice with the 10th pick.

[Severn Hoos]

With next year's draft set to be one of the best in a long time, Milwaukee may be wise to blow it up, get cheap, get bad, accumulate assets and rebuild from the ground up.

If they chose that route I'd give our pick plus whatever combo of Vesely/Singleton/Booker/Seraphin they wanted to make the numbers work in exchange for Ilyasova. He's just 25 and is signed to a very reasonable longterm contract. His game is tailor-made for our team. He's lights out from 3 and strong on the boards. He's been part of very good defensive teams. He can play 3 in big lineups.

This is where it would really nice if any of our young bigs had any value

Yes, yes, and yes. Of course, knowing the Wiz, they'd make the deal before the Lottery, with no protections, and watch their ping pong balls come up #1. Or make the trade after Lotto & before the draft, only to see Porter slip to wherever they wind up slotted (#10 - the Paul Pierce/Caron Butler slot?).

But - if we can't have Noel or Porter, there's no one else in this draft I'd rather have than Ilyasova, even accounting for the salary difference. EI (please, we'd have to come up with a good nickname if he did come over) will be so much better than Olynyk or whoever else over the next 3-4 years, and I don't think it will be close. Ersan's biggest knock seems to me inconsistency, but maybe that wouldn't be as big an issue with a superstar PG ( )?

I doubt that #10 for Ilyasova gets it done - even considering we'd probably have to include Ariza. [Side note - that may be better for Milwaukee, assuming he can be dealt before/on Draft Day. In that case, he'd almost certainly opt out, and they would have effectively taken back $0 in salary. * Uh oh - Trade Checker won't allow it because of Ariza's option. Hmmm... maybe I'll have to try another option.]

Looks like it would take 3 of the 4 Bigs from the Wiz. Not that it would be any great loss, but that's a lot of holes to fill without the benefit of a 1st rounder or the MLE (assuming/hoping it goes to Webster). Would make for an awfully thin bench next year. Still, I'd do it. Ilyasova's that good, IMO.

[nate33]

Another guy I wonder about is Mike Beasley. As Nivek has pointed out on several occasions, he was a complete monster his one year at K-State. After getting dealt to Minnesota he spent two seasons playing out of position, and thus pretty poorly. So Phoenix then signs him last summer -- and promptly decides to play him out of position again.

He's been horrendous this year, and I'm concerned that at $6M per year for the next two seasons he doesn't have a great shot of earning his contract. But we could probably get him for bubkus -- like Vesely and Seraphin. Maybe if he's finally given a shot to play the right position, he'd excel. Maybe he'd take well to our strong locker room. Maybe being in his home town would actually be good for him. I know he has had his issues, but by all accounts he is not a bad kid.

Maybe we could even get PHX to throw in some other asset to get rid of him.

When I first read this, I thought it was a really intriguing idea; trade scraps for a guy who has at least in some point in his career shown true star-caliber ability. He is also a potential stretch four which is our biggest need.

But then I looked at his numbers. Yuck!

Tragically, the guy has gotten worse in every year of his career. His PER went from 17.2 to 16.1 to 15.5 to 13.0 to 10.9 this year. WTF? Has he not worked on his game AT ALL?

[Dark Faze]

It's a pipe dream maybe, but there's still a chance Dwight chooses to leave.

A sign and trade for Dwight for our 1st this year, Okafor and Ariza would highly benefit both teams imo.

[nate33]

I think the Ilyasova idea is pretty solid. Let's face it, there is very little chance of EG finding a diamond in the rough in this draft. With that a virtual certainty, we should definitely explore trading the pick for a young, established player who fits perfectly on the roster.

In general, it's unwise to trade high picks because they represent such value salarywise, but when EG is making the picks, that's not always the case. Also, with Ariza playing so well, I imagine his trade value has improved substantially. While Ilyasova is certainly more valuable than Ariza at this point, the difference isn't huge. I wonder if a pick swap would be enough to get the deal done. Ariza + #11 for Ilyasova + #17. We can throw in Booker to help fill the void left by Ilyasova.