2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 1

[SA37]

I pray we, don't make the Duncan Robinson mistake with Davion Mitchell and overpay for a role player that should be coming off the bench.

The implication here is that if we retain Mitchell its an overpay. I think its a lazy comparison, and I'm someone who agrees that Duncan was a mistake. Mitchell brings immense value as an elite POA defender at the PG position, those guys you can find but they do not grow on trees. As long as the AAV is reasonable and his 3P shooting can be in the 37-40% range you get your money's worth because a defender doesn't go on cold streaks. Duncan is a shooter that cant create his own shot and doesn't defend, you can find one of those guys and put him through the player development program every year.

The issue is less about Mitchell (or Robinson) as a player and more about a reasonable conclusion of how replaceable said player is. And both Robinson and Mitchell are highly replaceable. Even this past year, it would be hard to argue Robinson was better than Alec Burks (minimum salary add).

Years ago, Miami refused to pay backups big money, including guys who had career years with Miami. Players like John Crotty, Ike Austin, Jason Kapono, Mike James, Rafer Alston...etc. Who did Miami decide to break that rule with? Anthony Carter, Udonis Haslem, and Duncan Robinson (there are a few others you could name here, as well).

Miami will generally be able to find players like Davion Mitchell and Duncan Robinson in almost any offseason via FA or the draft, or as a throw-in in a trade. Look at the Pacers with Nesmith (throw-in in a trade), Nembhard (2nd round pick, #31), and TJ McConnell (undrafted). Look at OKC with Caruso (undrafted, acquired via trade), Wiggins (2nd round pick, #55), and Isaiah Joe (2nd round pick, #49).

The level of talent available in the 2nd round and undrafted is getting better and better, and Miami has been a team that has proven it can maximize those kinds of players.

[twix2500]

I pray we, don't make the Duncan Robinson mistake with Davion Mitchell and overpay for a role player that should be coming off the bench.

The implication here is that if we retain Mitchell its an overpay. I think its a lazy comparison, and I'm someone who agrees that Duncan was a mistake. Mitchell brings immense value as an elite POA defender at the PG position, those guys you can find but they do not grow on trees. As long as the AAV is reasonable and his 3P shooting can be in the 37-40% range you get your money's worth because a defender doesn't go on cold streaks. Duncan is a shooter that cant create his own shot and doesn't defend, you can find one of those guys and put him through the player development program every year.

The issue is less about Mitchell (or Robinson) as a player and more about a reasonable conclusion of how replaceable said player is. And both Robinson and Mitchell are highly replaceable. Even this past year, it would be hard to argue Robinson was better than Alec Burks (minimum salary add).

Years ago, Miami refused to pay backups big money, including guys who had career years with Miami. Players like John Crotty, Ike Austin, Jason Kapono, Mike James, Rafer Alston...etc. Who did Miami decide to break that rule with? Anthony Carter, Udonis Haslem, and Duncan Robinson (there are a few others you could name here, as well).

Miami will generally be able to find players like Davion Mitchell and Duncan Robinson in almost any offseason via FA or the draft, or as a throw-in in a trade. Look at the Pacers with Nesmith (throw-in in a trade), Nembhard (2nd round pick, #31), and TJ McConnell (undrafted). Look at OKC with Caruso (undrafted, acquired via trade), Wiggins (2nd round pick, #55), and Isaiah Joe (2nd round pick, #49).

The level of talent available in the 2nd round and undrafted is getting better and better, and Miami has been a team that has proven it can maximize those kinds of players.

Actually Robinson has been irreplaceable. The problem was Robinson himself, his inconsistencies. When Robinson is playing to his potential he was a damn near irreplaceable peice. Burk and even Strus couldnt immulate Robinson when he played to his potential. The offense was always at its best when Robinson was on his game. Those long funks he would go into hurt the team just as much as when he was on carried the team. Burks NEVER had the impact that Robinson had when he was focused.

[SA37]

I’m sitting here still wondering why Kevin Durant would want to be traded to a team that has no interest in giving him an extension. Playing your age 37 year with a two year 120 extension looming and passing that up is not something i would advise him doing because of the love of the game lol. Butler should have set the precedent for aging star getting his extension. All i’ve seen reported is GM’s view him as a one year rental. Do the Spurs have interest in extending him? I know we certainly can.

It's hard to imagine teams giving up enough value to the Suns for a rental; you have to assume there will be at least 2-3 teams willing to extend Durant since they'd have to give up 1-2 picks and 2-3 rotation players/prospects to get a deal done. Denver, Miami, and New York absolutely would extand Durant. Philly, Minnesota, Memphis, Milwaukee, Detroit, Houston, and Cleveland likely would.

Not all those teams have great packages to offer, but that's 1/3 of the league I just listed. 2-3 will likely battle it out, and Phoenix likely already has a good idea of who those teams will be based on their trial run at the trade deadline.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

The implication here is that if we retain Mitchell its an overpay. I think its a lazy comparison, and I'm someone who agrees that Duncan was a mistake. Mitchell brings immense value as an elite POA defender at the PG position, those guys you can find but they do not grow on trees. As long as the AAV is reasonable and his 3P shooting can be in the 37-40% range you get your money's worth because a defender doesn't go on cold streaks. Duncan is a shooter that cant create his own shot and doesn't defend, you can find one of those guys and put him through the player development program every year.

The issue is less about Mitchell (or Robinson) as a player and more about a reasonable conclusion of how replaceable said player is. And both Robinson and Mitchell are highly replaceable. Even this past year, it would be hard to argue Robinson was better than Alec Burks (minimum salary add).

Years ago, Miami refused to pay backups big money, including guys who had career years with Miami. Players like John Crotty, Ike Austin, Jason Kapono, Mike James, Rafer Alston...etc. Who did Miami decide to break that rule with? Anthony Carter, Udonis Haslem, and Duncan Robinson (there are a few others you could name here, as well).

Miami will generally be able to find players like Davion Mitchell and Duncan Robinson in almost any offseason via FA or the draft, or as a throw-in in a trade. Look at the Pacers with Nesmith (throw-in in a trade), Nembhard (2nd round pick, #31), and TJ McConnell (undrafted). Look at OKC with Caruso (undrafted, acquired via trade), Wiggins (2nd round pick, #55), and Isaiah Joe (2nd round pick, #49).

The level of talent available in the 2nd round and undrafted is getting better and better, and Miami has been a team that has proven it can maximize those kinds of players.

Actually Robinson has been irreplaceable. The problem was Robinson himself, his inconsistencies. When Robinson is playing to his potential he was a damn near irreplaceable peice. Burk and even Strus couldnt immulate Robinson when he played to his potential. The offense was always at its best when Robinson was on his game. Those long funks he would go into hurt the team just as much as when he was on carried the team. Burks NEVER had the impact that Robinson had when he was focused.

The idea of Robinson being irreplaceable for Miami is just a wild take, imo. But that was always my stance and why I spoke out against giving him more than ~3-years, ~$12M or so per season when he was a FA. He's pretty one-dimensional on offense, although he has improved some, and he's a target for whoever he's guarding. They attack him pretty successfully non-stop.

That isn't to say he wasn't/isn't a valuable player to Miami, but there are tons of guys who could have given you similar shooting with much better overall games and defensive skills. Caruso has made way less money than Robinson and I don't think anyone would argue Miami wouldn't have been better with Caruso than Robinson. And he's just one example.

[twix2500]

Spoiler:

The issue is less about Mitchell (or Robinson) as a player and more about a reasonable conclusion of how replaceable said player is. And both Robinson and Mitchell are highly replaceable. Even this past year, it would be hard to argue Robinson was better than Alec Burks (minimum salary add).

Years ago, Miami refused to pay backups big money, including guys who had career years with Miami. Players like John Crotty, Ike Austin, Jason Kapono, Mike James, Rafer Alston...etc. Who did Miami decide to break that rule with? Anthony Carter, Udonis Haslem, and Duncan Robinson (there are a few others you could name here, as well).

Miami will generally be able to find players like Davion Mitchell and Duncan Robinson in almost any offseason via FA or the draft, or as a throw-in in a trade. Look at the Pacers with Nesmith (throw-in in a trade), Nembhard (2nd round pick, #31), and TJ McConnell (undrafted). Look at OKC with Caruso (undrafted, acquired via trade), Wiggins (2nd round pick, #55), and Isaiah Joe (2nd round pick, #49).

The level of talent available in the 2nd round and undrafted is getting better and better, and Miami has been a team that has proven it can maximize those kinds of players.

Actually Robinson has been irreplaceable. The problem was Robinson himself, his inconsistencies. When Robinson is playing to his potential he was a damn near irreplaceable peice. Burk and even Strus couldnt immulate Robinson when he played to his potential. The offense was always at its best when Robinson was on his game. Those long funks he would go into hurt the team just as much as when he was on carried the team. Burks NEVER had the impact that Robinson had when he was focused.

The idea of Robinson being irreplaceable for Miami is just a wild take, imo. But that was always my stance and why I spoke out against giving him more than ~$12M or so per season when he was a FA. That isn't to say he wasn't/isn't a valuable player to Miami, but there are tons of guys who could have given you similar shooting with much better overall games and defensive skills.

Caruso has made way less money than Robinson and I don't think anyone would argue Miami wouldn't have been better with Caruso than Robinson. And he's just one example.

No there wasnt tons of guys who could give you the shooting that Robinson was giving when he was playing to his potential. Its wild that you watched his game and didnt see how he would change opponent whole defensive game plans. That not something any shooter could do. He was one of the very few role players in the league that opponents would actually have a team game plan to stop. Random guy standing in the corner hitting an open 3 is not equal to Robinson running off screens forcing whole defenses to get out of position and double and cheat off their man to defend him.

You too caught on on one on one who is better not how player fits the team his whole affect on the game.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Actually Robinson has been irreplaceable. The problem was Robinson himself, his inconsistencies. When Robinson is playing to his potential he was a damn near irreplaceable peice. Burk and even Strus couldnt immulate Robinson when he played to his potential. The offense was always at its best when Robinson was on his game. Those long funks he would go into hurt the team just as much as when he was on carried the team. Burks NEVER had the impact that Robinson had when he was focused.

The idea of Robinson being irreplaceable for Miami is just a wild take, imo. But that was always my stance and why I spoke out against giving him more than ~$12M or so per season when he was a FA. That isn't to say he wasn't/isn't a valuable player to Miami, but there are tons of guys who could have given you similar shooting with much better overall games and defensive skills.

Caruso has made way less money than Robinson and I don't think anyone would argue Miami wouldn't have been better with Caruso than Robinson. And he's just one example.

No there wasnt tons of guys who could give you the shooting that Robinson was giving when he was playing to his potential. Its wild that you watched his game and didnt see how he would change opponent whole defensive game plans. That not something any shooter could do. He was one of the very few role players in the league that opponents would actually have a team game plan to stop. Random guy standing in the corner hitting an open 3 is not equal to Robinson running off screens forcing whole defenses to get out of position and double and cheat off their man to defend him.

While I agree with your larger point, my argument is Robinson wasn't a player who could be counted on to play to that potential consistently, which means you're paying him big money for a service you're not getting. If his one differentiating skill is gone and he can't do much of anything else, you have an expensive dud.

I don't think Robinson was a disaster, but I don't think anyone would argue he's lived up to his contract. Were he making ~MLE money, I don't think he'd be receiving nearly as much criticism as he has. Wherever he ends up, I am guessing he'll have a contract much like what Malik Beasley or Luke Kennard got ($6-$9M/season). Even Isaiah Joe or Wiggins (OKC) are getting around $10-$11M season, and they're superior players to Robinson.

[Kobewade11]

I pray we, don't make the Duncan Robinson mistake with Davion Mitchell and overpay for a role player that should be coming off the bench.

The implication here is that if we retain Mitchell its an overpay. I think its a lazy comparison, and I'm someone who agrees that Duncan was a mistake. Mitchell brings immense value as an elite POA defender at the PG position, those guys you can find but they do not grow on trees. As long as the AAV is reasonable and his 3P shooting can be in the 37-40% range you get your money's worth because a defender doesn't go on cold streaks. Duncan is a shooter that cant create his own shot and doesn't defend, you can find one of those guys and put him through the player development program every year.

The issue is less about Mitchell (or Robinson) as a player and more about a reasonable conclusion of how replaceable said player is. And both Robinson and Mitchell are highly replaceable.

We'll just agree to disagree and move on.

[twix2500]

The idea of Robinson being irreplaceable for Miami is just a wild take, imo. But that was always my stance and why I spoke out against giving him more than ~$12M or so per season when he was a FA. That isn't to say he wasn't/isn't a valuable player to Miami, but there are tons of guys who could have given you similar shooting with much better overall games and defensive skills.

Caruso has made way less money than Robinson and I don't think anyone would argue Miami wouldn't have been better with Caruso than Robinson. And he's just one example.

No there wasnt tons of guys who could give you the shooting that Robinson was giving when he was playing to his potential. Its wild that you watched his game and didnt see how he would change opponent whole defensive game plans. That not something any shooter could do. He was one of the very few role players in the league that opponents would actually have a team game plan to stop. Random guy standing in the corner hitting an open 3 is not equal to Robinson running off screens forcing whole defenses to get out of position and double and cheat off their man to defend him.

While I agree with your larger point, my argument is Robinson wasn't a player who could be counted on to play to that potential consistently, which means you're paying him big money for a service you're not getting. If his one differentiating skill is gone and he can't do much of anything else, you have an expensive dud.

I don't think Robinson was a disaster, but I don't think anyone would argue he's lived up to his contract. Were he making ~MLE money, I don't think he'd be receiving nearly as much criticism as he has.

To the Heat fault yeah, but Robinson his first year as a starter and even his second year, there was very little signs of that. Once he got paid, he didnt keep himself mentally on game. He even admitted to that once he got the money he felt every mistake and it pilled up on him. That is on him alone. Strus breathing down his neck probably also go to him. Its the samething Justice Winslow proclaimed was the reason for his fizzle. Didnt handle the pressure and responsibility, especially when he got a little money. But many on here keep holding a player being undrafted agianst them. Duncan its oh dont trust him because he is a UDFA and when it was Winslow it was oh give him another chance he was a lottery pick. And even then Robinson didnt crash like Winslow.

[MettaWorldPanda]

The idea of Robinson being irreplaceable for Miami is just a wild take, imo. But that was always my stance and why I spoke out against giving him more than ~$12M or so per season when he was a FA. That isn't to say he wasn't/isn't a valuable player to Miami, but there are tons of guys who could have given you similar shooting with much better overall games and defensive skills.

Caruso has made way less money than Robinson and I don't think anyone would argue Miami wouldn't have been better with Caruso than Robinson. And he's just one example.

No there wasnt tons of guys who could give you the shooting that Robinson was giving when he was playing to his potential. Its wild that you watched his game and didnt see how he would change opponent whole defensive game plans. That not something any shooter could do. He was one of the very few role players in the league that opponents would actually have a team game plan to stop. Random guy standing in the corner hitting an open 3 is not equal to Robinson running off screens forcing whole defenses to get out of position and double and cheat off their man to defend him.

While I agree with your larger point, my argument is Robinson wasn't a player who could be counted on to play to that potential consistently, which means you're paying him big money for a service you're not getting. If his one differentiating skill is gone and he can't do much of anything else, you have an expensive dud.

I don't think Robinson was a disaster, but I don't think anyone would argue he's lived up to his contract. Were he making ~MLE money, I don't think he'd be receiving nearly as much criticism as he has. Wherever he ends up, I am guessing he'll have a contract much like what Malik Beasley or Luke Kennard got ($6-$9M/season). Even Isaiah Joe or Wiggins (OKC) are getting around $10-$11M season, and they're superior players to Robinson.

Duncan will be making the minimum on this next contract. His value was overinflated here. The league could care less about him. Mentioned many times as having one of the worst contracts nobody even came close to wanting. His contract now is finally tradeable but even then we or another team has to eat 9.8 million for one more year. He’s 31 years old who will be some team's limited 10 min one trick pony off the bench. Maybe he’ll get a look on the Lakers or Pistons.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We’re competing with no one I would guess to sign Mitchell, just is what it is with the lack of cap space this summer.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Peak duncan was the perfect piece next to bam jimmy and Dragic, probably top 5 most impactful players we’ve had on the roster since acquiring Jimmy with Jimmy Bam Dragic and Lowry. Unfortunately that only lasted for a year or 2

[twix2500]

Peak duncan was the perfect piece next to bam jimmy and Dragic, probably top 5 most impactful players we’ve had on the roster since acquiring Jimmy with Jimmy Bam Dragic and Lowry. Unfortunately that only lasted for a year or 2

Once Jimmy was gone, Duncan fit here was over. Duncan fit with Butler and Bam was vital. The same with Olynyk. The Heat couldnt replace Olynyk fit when he was gone.

[twix2500]

Even today the Heat needs to find someone similar to Robinson that fits this team. One of the reasons this team offense sucked because no off ball movement, just players standing at the three point line. In the modern game offenses, screen setting and off ball movement is vital.

[Wiltside]

Read on Twitter

Durant reportedly wants only a “win-now” situation and Miami, Philadelphia, and even OKC are said to be among the potential suitors.

Read on Twitter

That Stephen A take is so lame. Does he forget that Pat acquired Bron and Bosh for less than chocolate chip cookies? And that Pat’s legacy was already cemented before he even acquired them?

FOH with these trash takes.

[twix2500]

I will drop this one thing about Duncan and leave it be. Duncan had the oppurtunity and the potential to be the Draymond glue guy of value to Butler and Bam. Some here say or Caruso was a better player than Duncan. Hell David Lee was a better player than Draymond, but Draymond fit with Klay and Curry was better. The difference is Draymond mentally was stronger than Duncan. If Duncan was mentally strong, it actually could of been a difference in having and not having a ring during this run.

[twix2500]

Read on Twitter

Durant reportedly wants only a “win-now” situation and Miami, Philadelphia, and even OKC are said to be among the potential suitors.

Read on Twitter

That Stephen A take is so lame. Does he forget that Pat acquired Bron and Bosh for less than chocolate chip cookies? And that Pat’s legacy was already cemented before he even acquired them?

FOH with these trash takes.

You have to understand, the national media wants Riley out because they want access to the Heat. The fake narative that no player wants to play for the Heat is such a media made up narrative and its not new. The national media was pushing the The game has passed Riley by and no player want to go through Riley practices been pushed by the national media BEFORE Zo got sick.

[Bishop45]

Read on Twitter

“When the season ended, I took some time away just to decompress, gather my thoughts, really get to a place of peace,” Jaquez, 24, said. “Now I’m full steam ahead. I’ve been in the gym every single day, working on my mind, body, spirit, my jump shot, defense. Really just getting my body and mind in tune to get ready for this next season.”

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article308267200.html#storylink=cpy

Hope he took that penecillin to clear the Winslowitis infection he had all season

Still got some Jaime Stock!

[SA37]

To the Heat fault yeah, but Robinson his first year as a starter and even his second year, there was very little signs of that. Once he got paid, he didnt keep himself mentally on game. He even admitted to that once he got the money he felt every mistake and it pilled up on him. That is on him alone. Strus breathing down his neck probably also go to him. Its the samething Justice Winslow proclaimed was the reason for his fizzle. Didnt handle the pressure and responsibility, especially when he got a little money. But many on here keep holding a player being undrafted agianst them. Duncan its oh dont trust him because he is a UDFA and when it was Winslow it was oh give him another chance he was a lottery pick. And even then Robinson didnt crash like Winslow.

Of the guys -- undrafted or otherwise -- Robinson has been one of the most successful players to come out of Miami's system. I can't speak to other people's criticism of him being undrafted, but to me that is irrelevant. The issue with Robinson isn't even his game; it's just he got overpaid and perhaps that money could have been used towards other acquisitions or whatever.

I think Miami would love to keep Robinson, but he may get squeezed out for financial reasons. But I could totally see Miami bringing him back on a deal in the range of other guys in his skill range, probably in the $4-$7M/season range. It's just hard to see any team shelling out anymore than that.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

No there wasnt tons of guys who could give you the shooting that Robinson was giving when he was playing to his potential. Its wild that you watched his game and didnt see how he would change opponent whole defensive game plans. That not something any shooter could do. He was one of the very few role players in the league that opponents would actually have a team game plan to stop. Random guy standing in the corner hitting an open 3 is not equal to Robinson running off screens forcing whole defenses to get out of position and double and cheat off their man to defend him.

While I agree with your larger point, my argument is Robinson wasn't a player who could be counted on to play to that potential consistently, which means you're paying him big money for a service you're not getting. If his one differentiating skill is gone and he can't do much of anything else, you have an expensive dud.

I don't think Robinson was a disaster, but I don't think anyone would argue he's lived up to his contract. Were he making ~MLE money, I don't think he'd be receiving nearly as much criticism as he has. Wherever he ends up, I am guessing he'll have a contract much like what Malik Beasley or Luke Kennard got ($6-$9M/season). Even Isaiah Joe or Wiggins (OKC) are getting around $10-$11M season, and they're superior players to Robinson.

Duncan will be making the minimum on this next contract. His value was overinflated here. The league could care less about him. Mentioned many times as having one of the worst contracts nobody even came close to wanting. His contract now is finally tradeable but even then we or another team has to eat 9.8 million for one more year. He’s 31 years old who will be some team's limited 10 min one trick pony off the bench. Maybe he’ll get a look on the Lakers or Pistons.

It's possible, but I think he's more likely to get one of the exceptions from a contending team that could use shooting off the bench. But he certainly could end up with a minimum deal like Seth Curry, Alec Burks, Gary Trent, or Eric Gordon.

[twix2500]

To the Heat fault yeah, but Robinson his first year as a starter and even his second year, there was very little signs of that. Once he got paid, he didnt keep himself mentally on game. He even admitted to that once he got the money he felt every mistake and it pilled up on him. That is on him alone. Strus breathing down his neck probably also go to him. Its the samething Justice Winslow proclaimed was the reason for his fizzle. Didnt handle the pressure and responsibility, especially when he got a little money. But many on here keep holding a player being undrafted agianst them. Duncan its oh dont trust him because he is a UDFA and when it was Winslow it was oh give him another chance he was a lottery pick. And even then Robinson didnt crash like Winslow.

Of the guys -- undrafted or otherwise -- Robinson has been one of the most successful players to come out of Miami's system. I can't speak to other people's criticism of him being undrafted, but to me that is irrelevant. The issue with Robinson isn't even his game; it's just he got overpaid and perhaps that money could have been used towards other acquisitions or whatever.

I think Miami would love to keep Robinson, but he may get squeezed out for financial reasons. But I could totally see Miami bringing him back on a deal in the range of other guys in his skill range, probably in the $4-$7M/season range. It's just hard to see any team shelling out anymore than that.

As a person the Heat love Robinson. But the Heat are in transition mode right now. Currently there is no role for him. The Heat have to find their identity.