Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[DrModesty]

After spending the first few months of the season ranked in the 290-250 region of EPM, Giddey has jumped to 150th. He has also for the first time in his career got a positive EPM (+0.2). EPM has him as a 78th percentile offensive player, 41st percentile defensive player and 69th percentile player overall. Obviously EPM is not a be all and end all stat. But it has been one of the stats that has viewed Giddey most negatively throughout his career.

[Jcool0]

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[HomoSapien]

I'm just gonna say what we are all thinking: Josh Giddey is better than Michael Jordan.

[WindyCityBorn]

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He’ll miss a few games. We can start losing again and people can climb off of the ledge. Will be interesting to see who steps up in his absence.

[Chi town]

Giddey took over the game tonight scoring. Kid is playing the best ball of his career.

If he doens't miss time I think the Bulls will get all the way up to the 7th seed and win the play in. I'd rather have the Cavs then the Celts in a playoff series.

[Dez]

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He’ll miss a few games. We can start losing again and people can climb off of the ledge. Will be interesting to see who steps up in his absence.

Losing now makes no difference.

[Muzbar]

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He’ll miss a few games. We can start losing again and people can climb off of the ledge. Will be interesting to see who steps up in his absence.

Losing now does nothing, the damage has already been done, plus either way, the Bulls are still going to be in the play-in and Giddey will be back before the end of the season so playoffs is still very possible.

Does that mean I get to 'stay on the ledge'?

[WindyCityBorn]

Read on Twitter

He’ll miss a few games. We can start losing again and people can climb off of the ledge. Will be interesting to see who steps up in his absence.

Losing now does nothing, the damage has already been done, plus either way, the Bulls are still going to be in the play-in and Giddey will be back before the end of the season so playoffs is still very possible.

Does that mean I get to 'stay on the ledge'?

If we actually make the playoffs and drop to 15 I won’t be happy. Until that worst case scenario happens I’m not gonna worry about it. Were probably about lose a bunch until Giddey is back. Hopefully stay at 10.

[2weekswithpay]

[Ice Man]

So, essentially the same player but making his shots. Well, we always knew that Giddey had two problems - scoring efficiency and defense. So if he fixed one of them, he would be quite good. At least for the moment he has fixed his scoring efficiency.

Now if he could ever become a good defender, while still scoring like this, that guy would be a true #1. Ah, a fan can dream.

[League Circles]

I'm just gonna say what we are all thinking: Josh Giddey is better than Michael Jordan.

Lol, I do think we're close to some people saying he's better, or will be better, than Derrick Rose was though. Hell I bet some people already think that.

[League Circles]

So, essentially the same player but making his shots. Well, we always knew that Giddey had two problems - scoring efficiency and defense. So if he fixed one of them, he would be quite good. At least for the moment he has fixed his scoring efficiency.

Now if he could ever become a good defender, while still scoring like this, that guy would be a true #1. Ah, a fan can dream.

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

[dougthonus]

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He’ll miss a few games. We can start losing again and people can climb off of the ledge. Will be interesting to see who steps up in his absence.

Losing now does nothing, the damage has already been done, plus either way, the Bulls are still going to be in the play-in and Giddey will be back before the end of the season so playoffs is still very possible.

Does that mean I get to 'stay on the ledge'?

I wouldn't say losing makes no difference, we just passed San Antonio, we're a half game from passing Portland. Our pick odds of moving up may have gone from 26.2% to 13.9%.

[Rose2Boozer]

Magic Giddey.

[sco]

So, essentially the same player but making his shots. Well, we always knew that Giddey had two problems - scoring efficiency and defense. So if he fixed one of them, he would be quite good. At least for the moment he has fixed his scoring efficiency.

Now if he could ever become a good defender, while still scoring like this, that guy would be a true #1. Ah, a fan can dream.

I know people can watch the same thing and see different things, but the level of defense I see out the guy in terms of staying in front of his man, contesting shots (that often results in missed shots), and being opportunistic with stocks, I would call "above average". Frankly, I see no difference between his play recently and what I characterized as good defense from PWill in prior years.

[Ice Man]

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

Well OK, but the two items are related. Teams dare him to score because historically he has been bad at it. Presumably, that will change if he keeps scoring 20+_per game on high efficiency.

Or, he has not taken a step forward, this is just a hot streak, we pay him $$$ for his next contract, and then he reverts back to his previous norm. At which point we are screwed.

[League Circles]

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

Well OK, but the two items are related. Teams dare him to score because historically he has been bad at it. Presumably, that will change if he keeps scoring 20+_per game on high efficiency.

Or, he has not taken a step forward, this is just a hot streak, we pay him $$$ for his next contract, and then he reverts back to his previous norm. At which point we are screwed.

I think people often overrate the impact of shooting numbers in estimating defensive attention. Whether or not that's wise or being coached or whatever is a separate issue, but IMO they often go more by things like form, shot quickness, and volume. I think most NBA players have mostly seen Giddey with the ball further than 10 feet from the basket as a joke to be dealt with if and when it causes them to start losing. Again, that might be a mistake (that they are now starting to pay for), but IMO it's been the case and will likely continue to be for a while. It takes time for defensive attention to catch up to offensive capability for a given guy I think.

Like, if Giddey had shot 60% TS % last year instead of the .547 he actually had, he'd have scored only about 1 point more per game, even though we perceive the difference between.547 and .600 to be very big.

I just think the relationship between shooting efficiency and defensive attention is a lot less linear and more nuanced than we sometimes treat it as.

[Jcool0]

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

Well OK, but the two items are related. Teams dare him to score because historically he has been bad at it. Presumably, that will change if he keeps scoring 20+_per game on high efficiency.

Or, he has not taken a step forward, this is just a hot streak, we pay him $$$ for his next contract, and then he reverts back to his previous norm. At which point we are screwed.

Odds are good he will continue what he has been doing for his career. Most likely with a 36+% 3PT shot. The one to worry about is Coby. He is playing like a guy AK wont trade in the off season.

[League Circles]

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

Well OK, but the two items are related. Teams dare him to score because historically he has been bad at it. Presumably, that will change if he keeps scoring 20+_per game on high efficiency.

Or, he has not taken a step forward, this is just a hot streak, we pay him $$$ for his next contract, and then he reverts back to his previous norm. At which point we are screwed.

Odds are good he will continue what he has been doing for his career. Most likely with a 36+% 3PT shot. The one to worry about is Coby. He is playing like a guy AK wont trade in the off season.

Coby is playing quite well right now, which is a good thing. Coby isn't a high end starter or anything, but he's a good player IMO and the main problem with him is his potential next contract. That's what should largely dictate what we do with him. If he'd sign a long term extension this summer for something between what he's making now and maybe 18-20 mil, IMO we should consider it. Him and Giddey complement each other very well on offense IMO, obviously not very well on defense. If they both start long term they'd need to start with 3 significantly above average defenders or it's a deal breaker IMO.

[Ice Man]

Like, if Giddey had shot 60% TS % last year instead of the .547 he actually had, he'd have scored only about 1 point more per game, even though we perceive the difference between.547 and .600 to be very big.

I just think the relationship between shooting efficiency and defensive attention is a lot less linear and more nuanced than we sometimes treat it as.

Those are good points. On the other hand, if each starter improved by 1 point per game, that would improve a team's point differential by 5 points per game, which implies 13 more wins for the team. That is, a 35-win team that improves its point differential by +5 would be expected to win 48 games.

So, while each player can only do so much by himself, that sort of incremental gain can be pretty important, if spread throughout the lineup. In other words, every little bit counts!