The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1501 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:23 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I think most of this is true, but I also think the league as a whole is starting to figure out some better ways to attempt to defend them starting with trying to force the ball away from Green when doubling Curry. Obviously Iggy's return brings another great decision-maker which will help GSW combat that, but playing 3 on 4 with the ball in Green's hands in the center of the floor is something teams have done a better job of avoiding than they did earlier in the year.


I mean, pausing and setting aside the improvement from last year to this season, if we look back the Finals, the Cavs were able to use a defensive lineup to hold Golden State down from their regular season ORTG of 111.6 to 107.3 by running Klay off of the line and with the troubles Curry had in a few games (plus his turnover troubles in that series). Obviously, improvements matter, but adjusting to the specific sets that the Warriors are running and then attacking their main guys with certain strategies and trying to force other players to beat them worked out reasonably well for Cleveland. We'll see what happens against the Spurs if/when they match up. That should be the most exciting series in the entire playoffs, particularly since the Spurs seem to have some semi-consistent success defending Cheat Code Curry.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1502 » by kabstah » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:14 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:I think most of this is true, but I also think the league as a whole is starting to figure out some better ways to attempt to defend them starting with trying to force the ball away from Green when doubling Curry. Obviously Iggy's return brings another great decision-maker which will help GSW combat that, but playing 3 on 4 with the ball in Green's hands in the center of the floor is something teams have done a better job of avoiding than they did earlier in the year.


I mean, pausing and setting aside the improvement from last year to this season, if we look back the Finals, the Cavs were able to use a defensive lineup to hold Golden State down from their regular season ORTG of 111.6 to 107.3 by running Klay off of the line and with the troubles Curry had in a few games (plus his turnover troubles in that series). Obviously, improvements matter, but adjusting to the specific sets that the Warriors are running and then attacking their main guys with certain strategies and trying to force other players to beat them worked out reasonably well for Cleveland. We'll see what happens against the Spurs if/when they match up. That should be the most exciting series in the entire playoffs, particularly since the Spurs seem to have some semi-consistent success defending Cheat Code Curry.

Finals were a tale of two halves, because once GSW benched Bogut they destroyed Cleveland 3 games in a row with an ORTG even higher than their RS average (and very similar to their 2016 RS average). The way I see it GSW has already made counter-adjustments and solved Cleveland's defensive game plan. If they have a rematch this year, I expect GSW's offense to resemble games 4-6 a lot more than games 1-3 of last year's Finals. The only question would be if Cleveland can match GSW's offense by shoving horseshoes up their asses and bombing away from 3.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1503 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:19 pm

kabstah wrote:Finals were a tale of two halves, because once GSW benched Bogut they destroyed Cleveland 3 games in a row with an ORTG even higher than their RS average (and very similar to their 2016 RS average). The way I see it GSW has already made counter-adjustments and solved Cleveland's defensive game plan. If they have a rematch this year, I expect GSW's offense to resemble games 4-6 a lot more than games 1-3 of last year's Finals. The only question would be if Cleveland can match GSW's offense by shoving horseshoes up their asses and bombing away from 3.


This was my take on it too. It wouldn't make any sense to call the '14-15 Warriors an all-time great team given the way they struggled at first to adapt...but given the hammer blow they delivered once they actually did adapt, I never understood why everyone's jaws weren't on the floor about their potential.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1504 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:22 pm

kabstah wrote:Finals were a tale of two halves, because once GSW benched Bogut they destroyed Cleveland 3 games in a row with an ORTG even higher than their RS average (and very similar to their 2016 RS average). The way I see it GSW has already made counter-adjustments and solved Cleveland's defensive game plan. If they have a rematch this year, I expect GSW's offense to resemble games 4-6 a lot more than games 1-3 of last year's Finals. The only question would be if Cleveland can match GSW's offense by shoving horseshoes up their asses and bombing away from 3.


Mmmm.

G1: 112.1
G2: 92.6
G3: 100.1
G4: 116.0
G5: 115.9
G6: 108.4

What you meant to say is that they had two incredible games.

G5 Steph: 13/23 FG, 7/13 3P, 4/4 FT, 37 points

Klay sucked that game, going 5/14, 1/4 from 3 and stanking out for 12 points in 40 minutes of play.

In Game 6, Steph was solid, Iggy had a big game that prompted everyone to lose their minds and give him the Finals MVP (although his D over the second half of the series was remarkable, it's true) and Dray had a TD.

Iggy: D, plus 25/5/2 on 3/8 3P for 51.2% TS; he was also 4/10 at the line.
Steph: 25/6/8 on 55.5% TS

Anyway, the idea here is that they were mortal in game 6 just as they'd been over the first 3 games, but they had two break-out performances in Games 4 and 5.

Yeah, going small helped them, but I was trying more to illustrate that the Cavs were able to attack the Warriors and keep them from being titans on O all series long, and they managed to do that on either end of the series. We'd be having maybe a different discussion if they hadn't scored 15 in the first and 18 in the third in that particular game, you know what I'm saying? This is more specifically relevant to a team like San Antonio that doesn't have a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde relationship on offense/defense as do the Cavs, where their best offensive lineups tend to be critically weak on D and vice versa.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1505 » by SideshowBob » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:26 pm

This is what I wrote in November:

SideshowBob wrote:Looking at the rosters, how good does the board think the Warriors are compared to the 96/97 Bulls? Curry and Jordan both look like +6.5ish guys to me, but what about the rest of the casts?

Of the guys playing >20 MPG, almost every single one of them is a strong highly portable two-way player.

Klay
    3P shooting/spacing
    Movement off the ball
    Isolation/slashing game
    Post scoring
    +
    Length and discipline on defensive end
    Defensive rebounding

Dray
    3P shooting/spacing at the 4/5 spots
    High-post passing/spacing (he's playing Bogut's role rather well and leading the team in assists)
    Movement/PnR finisher
    +
    Rim/lane protection
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage
    Defensive glass

Iggy
    Solid PnR playmaker
    Cutting/finishing
    Adequate 3P shooting when left open
    Baseline isolation ability
    Fosters ball movement
    +
    Perimeter coverage
    Aggressive in the passing lanes
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage

Its early in the season, so I won't give them concrete ratings yet, but they all look like +2.5-3.5 guys who have offensive skillsets that are highly additive. They don't really interfere with the games of others, while simultaneously being super valuable on defense (Dray/Iggy/Klay). All three are all-star caliber (I think that threshold is hit at around +2) and then furthermore, even Barnes might have a case IMO (iso scoring/spacing/shooting/low-post game/etc.), he's only a bit behind that first group. Ezeli's clearly improving and might be the team's best off-ball finisher, as well as becoming a force on the offensive glass. On top of that, the bench unit has been underwhelming, Bogut has played just 38 minutes, and he might be their best per-minute defensive player (at worst he's the 3rd best following Dray/Iggy, but he's their best rim/lane protector) and is a key cog as a high-post hub in their offense. And despite all of this they're sporting a 15.5 SRS through 8 games (I'll do an HCA adjustment and post their numbers in the Curry thread later).

This is a **** stacked team. Their top-end talent after Curry is insane.


My general opinion hasn't changed, but Curry/Draymond's stocks are way higher now than it was early in the year.

Rough idea:

Curry +7.00-7.25 Offense | +0.25 Defense | +7.25-7.50 Overall
Dray +1.75 Offense | +2.50 Defense | +4.25 Overall
Iggy +1.25 Offense | +1.75 Defense | +3.00 Overall
Klay +2.50 Offense | +0.50 Defense | +3.00 Overall
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1506 » by RebelWithACause » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:06 pm

SideshowBob wrote:This is what I wrote in November:

SideshowBob wrote:Looking at the rosters, how good does the board think the Warriors are compared to the 96/97 Bulls? Curry and Jordan both look like +6.5ish guys to me, but what about the rest of the casts?

Of the guys playing >20 MPG, almost every single one of them is a strong highly portable two-way player.

Klay
    3P shooting/spacing
    Movement off the ball
    Isolation/slashing game
    Post scoring
    +
    Length and discipline on defensive end
    Defensive rebounding

Dray
    3P shooting/spacing at the 4/5 spots
    High-post passing/spacing (he's playing Bogut's role rather well and leading the team in assists)
    Movement/PnR finisher
    +
    Rim/lane protection
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage
    Defensive glass

Iggy
    Solid PnR playmaker
    Cutting/finishing
    Adequate 3P shooting when left open
    Baseline isolation ability
    Fosters ball movement
    +
    Perimeter coverage
    Aggressive in the passing lanes
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage

Its early in the season, so I won't give them concrete ratings yet, but they all look like +2.5-3.5 guys who have offensive skillsets that are highly additive. They don't really interfere with the games of others, while simultaneously being super valuable on defense (Dray/Iggy/Klay). All three are all-star caliber (I think that threshold is hit at around +2) and then furthermore, even Barnes might have a case IMO (iso scoring/spacing/shooting/low-post game/etc.), he's only a bit behind that first group. Ezeli's clearly improving and might be the team's best off-ball finisher, as well as becoming a force on the offensive glass. On top of that, the bench unit has been underwhelming, Bogut has played just 38 minutes, and he might be their best per-minute defensive player (at worst he's the 3rd best following Dray/Iggy, but he's their best rim/lane protector) and is a key cog as a high-post hub in their offense. And despite all of this they're sporting a 15.5 SRS through 8 games (I'll do an HCA adjustment and post their numbers in the Curry thread later).

This is a **** stacked team. Their top-end talent after Curry is insane.


My general opinion hasn't changed, but Curry/Draymond's stocks are way higher now than it was early in the year.

Rough idea:

Curry +7.00-7.25 Offense | +0.25 Defense | +7.25-7.50 Overall
Dray +1.75 Offense | +2.50 Defense | +4.25 Overall
Iggy +1.25 Offense | +1.75 Defense | +3.00 Overall
Klay +2.50 Offense | +0.50 Defense | +3.00 Overall


Why is Curry clearly below LeBron, Jordan and Shaq at their peak ( I think you have them at +8, LeBron at 8.5?!)
Shouldn't he be equal or even better as of now?
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1507 » by RSCD3_ » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:07 pm

SideshowBob wrote:This is what I wrote in November:

SideshowBob wrote:Looking at the rosters, how good does the board think the Warriors are compared to the 96/97 Bulls? Curry and Jordan both look like +6.5ish guys to me, but what about the rest of the casts?

Of the guys playing >20 MPG, almost every single one of them is a strong highly portable two-way player.

Klay
    3P shooting/spacing
    Movement off the ball
    Isolation/slashing game
    Post scoring
    +
    Length and discipline on defensive end
    Defensive rebounding

Dray
    3P shooting/spacing at the 4/5 spots
    High-post passing/spacing (he's playing Bogut's role rather well and leading the team in assists)
    Movement/PnR finisher
    +
    Rim/lane protection
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage
    Defensive glass

Iggy
    Solid PnR playmaker
    Cutting/finishing
    Adequate 3P shooting when left open
    Baseline isolation ability
    Fosters ball movement
    +
    Perimeter coverage
    Aggressive in the passing lanes
    Single coverage versatility
    Movement/floor coverage

Its early in the season, so I won't give them concrete ratings yet, but they all look like +2.5-3.5 guys who have offensive skillsets that are highly additive. They don't really interfere with the games of others, while simultaneously being super valuable on defense (Dray/Iggy/Klay). All three are all-star caliber (I think that threshold is hit at around +2) and then furthermore, even Barnes might have a case IMO (iso scoring/spacing/shooting/low-post game/etc.), he's only a bit behind that first group. Ezeli's clearly improving and might be the team's best off-ball finisher, as well as becoming a force on the offensive glass. On top of that, the bench unit has been underwhelming, Bogut has played just 38 minutes, and he might be their best per-minute defensive player (at worst he's the 3rd best following Dray/Iggy, but he's their best rim/lane protector) and is a key cog as a high-post hub in their offense. And despite all of this they're sporting a 15.5 SRS through 8 games (I'll do an HCA adjustment and post their numbers in the Curry thread later).

This is a **** stacked team. Their top-end talent after Curry is insane.


My general opinion hasn't changed, but Curry/Draymond's stocks are way higher now than it was early in the year.

Rough idea:

Curry +7.00-7.25 Offense | +0.25 Defense | +7.25-7.50 Overall
Dray +1.75 Offense | +2.50 Defense | +4.25 Overall
Iggy +1.25 Offense | +1.75 Defense | +3.00 Overall
Klay +2.50 Offense | +0.50 Defense | +3.00 Overall


Where does that fall with your peaks lists, Were the seasons of 09 LeBron/91 Jordan/00 Shaq all 8's?
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1508 » by SideshowBob » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:56 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:Why is Curry clearly below LeBron, Jordan and Shaq at their peak ( I think you have them at +8, LeBron at 8.5?!)
Shouldn't he be equal or even better as of now?


I have peak Lebron below both Shaq (better portability due to defense) and Jordan (health; 100% vs. 95% RS), all three at +8. Don't think Curry's combination of offense and defense makes him a better player than those guys at their peaks, but his offense alone is in a different stratosphere and at worst is slightly better than current GOAT level offense (Magic 87).

RSCD3_ wrote:Where does that fall with your peaks lists, Were the seasons of 09 LeBron/91 Jordan/00 Shaq all 8's?


00 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.50 D | +8.00
91 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
90 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.50 D | +8.00
13 James +5.75 O | +2.25 D | +8.00
10 James +6.00 O | +2.00 D | +8.00
92 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.75 D | +7.75 << Curry fits in right after here, maybe higher after the postseason as I'll hone-in a little more
93 Jordan +6.50 O | +1.00 D | +7.50
09 James +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50
89 Jordan +6.25 O | +1.25 D | +7.50
01 Shaq +5.50 O | +2.00 D | +7.50

One season per player he's looking at the #4 spot.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1509 » by SideshowBob » Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:04 pm

Steph's PER is currently 31.74 which would be #3 all time after 63/62 and above 88 Jordan (31.71) and 09 James (31.67) for #1 with complete box-score stats.

His current BPM (+12.48) would be #4 all time after 09 James (+12.99), 89 Jordan (+12.56), and 10 James (+12.53).

Current WS/48 of 0.3216 is #6 all time sandwiched between 13 James (0.3220) and 91 (0.3211) Jordan.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1510 » by kabstah » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:23 pm

tsherkin wrote:
kabstah wrote:Finals were a tale of two halves, because once GSW benched Bogut they destroyed Cleveland 3 games in a row with an ORTG even higher than their RS average (and very similar to their 2016 RS average). The way I see it GSW has already made counter-adjustments and solved Cleveland's defensive game plan. If they have a rematch this year, I expect GSW's offense to resemble games 4-6 a lot more than games 1-3 of last year's Finals. The only question would be if Cleveland can match GSW's offense by shoving horseshoes up their asses and bombing away from 3.


Mmmm.

G1: 112.1
G2: 92.6
G3: 100.1
G4: 116.0
G5: 115.9
G6: 108.4

What you meant to say is that they had two incredible games.

G5 Steph: 13/23 FG, 7/13 3P, 4/4 FT, 37 points

Klay sucked that game, going 5/14, 1/4 from 3 and stanking out for 12 points in 40 minutes of play.

In Game 6, Steph was solid, Iggy had a big game that prompted everyone to lose their minds and give him the Finals MVP (although his D over the second half of the series was remarkable, it's true) and Dray had a TD.

Iggy: D, plus 25/5/2 on 3/8 3P for 51.2% TS; he was also 4/10 at the line.
Steph: 25/6/8 on 55.5% TS

Anyway, the idea here is that they were mortal in game 6 just as they'd been over the first 3 games, but they had two break-out performances in Games 4 and 5.

Yeah, going small helped them, but I was trying more to illustrate that the Cavs were able to attack the Warriors and keep them from being titans on O all series long, and they managed to do that on either end of the series. We'd be having maybe a different discussion if they hadn't scored 15 in the first and 18 in the third in that particular game, you know what I'm saying? This is more specifically relevant to a team like San Antonio that doesn't have a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde relationship on offense/defense as do the Cavs, where their best offensive lineups tend to be critically weak on D and vice versa.

Put it this way, if I were the Cleveland defensive coordinator, I would absolutely not be confident with trying the same defensive strategy against GSW as last year.

Of course, SAS is a different story. They have better defenders across the board and LMA is more capable of punishing GSW for playing small.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1511 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:35 pm

kabstah wrote:Put it this way, if I were the Cleveland defensive coordinator, I would absolutely not be confident with trying the same defensive strategy against GSW as last year.


Well, as I said, there are even OTHER differences to account for. Klay and Steph are even crazier this year, as if Green, so I mean it was inevitable that the EXACT strategy from last year won't work... the point was more to show that there are at least a few things they can try, is all.

Of course, SAS is a different story. They have better defenders across the board and LMA is more capable of punishing GSW for playing small.


That was my conclusion as well. Their guys who are good on D are also good on O, and their breadth of talent across both sides of the game is quite good, as if their coaching.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1512 » by JulesWinnfield » Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:42 am

Warriors local broadcast flashed this graphic in the 1st quarter tonight. Just had to screen shot it...The dubs "fg drought" is hilarious... An entire 5 seconds without a bucket. They're slippin

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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1513 » by toodles23 » Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:36 am

This one smells like a loss. Earlier in the season Curry would probably catch fire and bail them out, but he doesn't seem all that energetic tonight... though he made a three as I was typing this.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1514 » by cpower » Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:38 am

Curry passes up too many shots to HB and Klay, who can not buy a basket. This one is over unless he takes more shots. lets see
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1515 » by JulesWinnfield » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:41 am

This team is amazing. Unreal that they pulled this out. They're going to fly past 72 now.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1516 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:48 am

I can't wait til the playoffs! Warriors had a few calls go their way in this one to pull it out, but great execution nonetheless to force OT. That fast break dunk by draymond to finish it off was phenomenal, too.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1517 » by cpower » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:50 am

they are completely gassed now, they let Barnes take too many shots in early game and almost cause them the game. Jazz choked with 16 missing fts helped too. I am not sure whether they should play Curry next game or not. It's going to be ugly.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1518 » by Atmanne » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:52 am

Draymond's defense when they went small

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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1519 » by MisterHibachi » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:55 am

It's actually happening.

Steph shot 40% from 3 in March, including this game. They'll probably rest everyone after winning 73. Wish they would go for 75 tho.
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Re: The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1) 

Post#1520 » by PaulieWal » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:59 am

MisterHibachi wrote:It's actually happening.


We are all witnesses.
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