2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[Dutchball97]

Draymond should've ran away with the DPOY award if he didn't miss as many games. The Warriors have the best defensive rating in the league and Dray is miles ahead of everyone else in D-EPM, while being 3rd in both D-LEBRON and D-RAPTOR.

Bam should also be in the conversation. The Heat have a better defensive rating than the Jazz and Bucks and Bam's defensive numbers really shine through this year. He also missed a significant chunk of time though, although not as much as Draymond.

Allen and Mobley should both be candidates but with people being unsure who to give more credit to I'm afraid they'll limit each others potential to actually win the award.

Al Horford feels like a bit of underrated candidate. The Celtics have the second best defensive rating in the league. Horford is definitely the one on that team grading out the best but when you look at Smart, White, Williams, Tatum and Brown all being good to great defenders as well this might be a Allen/Mobley situation on steroids.

Embiid isn't one of the first I'd look at for this season but if Giannis is the current runner-up in the odds then Embiid definitely deserves mention as well. The 76ers have a better defensive rating than the Bucks and they grade out almost identically defensively in D-EPM (+1.5 to +1.3), D-LEBRON (+1.69 to +1.7) and D-RAPTOR (+2.3 to +2.1). Embiid also didn't have a lot of help on the defensive end outside of Thybulle, I'd say Giannis has more help in comparison even with Lopez missing.

Everything considered I'd probably still vote Gobert first. He leads both D-RAPTOR and D-LEBRON and has the Jazz just as good defensively as the Bucks and 76ers with even less help.

[GSP]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

Has your opinion Draymond Steph dynamic changed at all? Few months ago you said Steph's +/- numbers were way ahead so you felt more comfortable attributing team success largely to him instead of their twoman game

Before Draymonds injury started keeping him out
Steph averages

27/6/5 on .592ts and +11.2
Steph was in Mvp lead or strong favorite

Since Draymond has been out

24/7/5 on .599ts and +3
Now he's not even top 5 Mvp odds and is barely mentioned behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Demar. Luka could overtake him soon too

Their overall record without Draymond is 15-13 now BTW.

[Fadeaway_J]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

Has your opinion Draymond Steph dynamic changed at all? Few months ago you said Steph's +/- numbers were way ahead so you felt more comfortable attributing team success largely to him instead of their twoman game

Before Draymonds injury started keeping him out
Steph averages

27/6/5 on .592ts and +11.2
Steph was in Mvp lead or strong favorite

Since Draymond has been out

24/7/5 on .599ts and +3
Now he's not even top 5 Mvp odds and is barely mentioned behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Demar. Luka could overtake him soon too

Their overall record without Draymond is 15-13 now BTW.

This is a one-sided argument unless you can also see what would happen if Steph went out for the same length of time instead of Draymond.

[GSP]

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

Has your opinion Draymond Steph dynamic changed at all? Few months ago you said Steph's +/- numbers were way ahead so you felt more comfortable attributing team success largely to him instead of their twoman game

Before Draymonds injury started keeping him out
Steph averages

27/6/5 on .592ts and +11.2
Steph was in Mvp lead or strong favorite

Since Draymond has been out

24/7/5 on .599ts and +3
Now he's not even top 5 Mvp odds and is barely mentioned behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Demar. Luka could overtake him soon too

Their overall record without Draymond is 15-13 now BTW.

This is a one-sided argument unless you can also see what would happen if Steph went out for the same length of time instead of Draymond.

The point was the Warriors are only Warriors and both of their respective impacts heavily inflated by their synergy TOGETHER. Their true individual impacts both Draymond and Steph is far less without each other talented duos will make each other better but their impacts will still be large without each other. IMO their impacts individually are just massively lower without each other and we didn't even see Steph as an Mvp talent until Kerr put Draymond into the starting lineup when he got to Gs. And we saw Draymond for half an entire season without Steph and then he quit. Basically both of them INDIVIDUALLY are overrated because their synergy TOGETHER inflates how good they are separate from one another. If we saw both their careers pan out without each other the narrative and rankings around both would be far different since theyre prolly the most synergistic duo of alltime IMO. Strengths and weaknesses perfectly compliment each other like no duo weve ever seen.

[Fadeaway_J]

Has your opinion Draymond Steph dynamic changed at all? Few months ago you said Steph's +/- numbers were way ahead so you felt more comfortable attributing team success largely to him instead of their twoman game

Before Draymonds injury started keeping him out
Steph averages

27/6/5 on .592ts and +11.2
Steph was in Mvp lead or strong favorite

Since Draymond has been out

24/7/5 on .599ts and +3
Now he's not even top 5 Mvp odds and is barely mentioned behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Demar. Luka could overtake him soon too

Their overall record without Draymond is 15-13 now BTW.

This is a one-sided argument unless you can also see what would happen if Steph went out for the same length of time instead of Draymond.

The point was the Warriors are only Warriors and both of their respective impacts heavily inflated by their synergy TOGETHER. Their true individual impacts both Draymond and Steph is far less without each other talented duos will make each other better but their impacts will still be large without each other. IMO their impacts individually are just massively lower without each other and we didn't even see Steph as an Mvp talent until Kerr put Draymond into the starting lineup when he got to Gs. And we saw Draymond for half an entire season without Steph and then he quit. Basically both of them INDIVIDUALLY are overrated because their synergy TOGETHER inflates how good they are separate from one another. If we saw both their careers pan out without each other the narrative and rankings around both would be far different since theyre prolly the most synergistic duo of alltime IMO. Strengths and weaknesses perfectly compliment each other like no duo weve ever seen.

That may or may not be true, but in Steph's case I think there are other reasons he would suffer from Draymond's absence. This current Warriors team is actually really lacking in the high-IQ ball-movers they had in the past (Iguodala injured, no Livingston or Bogut). More so than ever they need Draymond's ability to run the show and weaponise Steph off ball, and without him things frequently get stagnant from what I've seen. I suspect the results would be different with 2015-18 Steph and a roster with better overall passing/intelligence.

As for Draymond, he obviously does benefit from Steph offensively but I feel like in this era especially there would have been several contenders with the talent for him to be at least playable. I mean if you drop him onto the Kawhi/PG Clippers or last season's Nets they can definitely find a way to keep him on the floor even if he doesn't have the kind of role he does with the Warriors. Once you can do that, it's really his defensive attributes that are making him a star which is more or less the same as it's been since 2016.

[LukaTheGOAT]

In 349 minutes without Giannis and Middleton, Jrue Holiday is averaging 30.7 pts/75 on +4% efficiency while dropping 9.6 assists/75.

[MartinToVaught]

How on Earth have the Warriors won 43 games? They are brutal. Curry and Klay shouldn't need Draymond to beat this horrific Lakers team. Of course, now that I've said this, the Warriors will blow us out on the 8th.

[falcolombardi]

How on Earth have the Warriors won 43 games? They are brutal. Curry and Klay shouldn't need Draymond to beat this horrific Lakers team. Of course, now that I've said this, the Warriors will blow us out on the 8th.

their defense was insane with draymond

[falcolombardi]

In 349 minutes without Giannis and Middleton, Jrue Holiday is averaging 30.7 pts/75 on +4% efficiency while dropping 9.6 assists/75.

jrue is odd is a offensive player, sometimes he looks like a offensive superstar (i still remember his murdering of portland in both ends of the court)

but others he struggles offensively, his shot was dead all playoffs last season

if bucks have this offensive version of hollyday i think they are even scsrier thsn last playoffs. even without López (hopefully the have him tho)

[HeartBreakKid]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

i don't think it's relevant to my point, but y'know Steve Kerr was on the Warriors last year too.

[falcolombardi]

right now with Grizzlies taking the second seed (!!!) we have projected matchups of

warriors vs denver (!!!) jokic vs curry and we could see Murray back as well as draymond

yet may be only rhe third most interesting first round matchup behind

suns vs clippers (!!!) (if kawhi is back) rematch, and specially

sixers vs nets (!!!!!)very possible first round matchup

if those happens this may be the first season ever where the most interesting matchups are 1st vs 8th ones

[feyki]

In 349 minutes without Giannis and Middleton, Jrue Holiday is averaging 30.7 pts/75 on +4% efficiency while dropping 9.6 assists/75.

jrue is odd is a offensive player, sometimes he looks like a offensive superstar (i still remember his murdering of portland in both ends of the court)

but others he struggles offensively, his shot was dead all playoffs last season

if bucks have this offensive version of hollyday i think they are even scsrier thsn last playoffs. even without López (hopefully the have him tho)

He was legit 2nd option on the offence when he was playing with AD. Too bad that team had terrible forward and wing rotation and they couldn't showed up their potential. Probably the worst front-office perform onyl second to Kings .

[GSP]

Is this the strongest season ever for Coy? Monty should win IMO but Monty, Spo, Lue, Jenkins, Bickerstaff, Kidd, Finch, Kerr, Donovan are all having incredible coaching seasons I dunno if there was ever such a strong season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Joel Embiid now officially has the highest free throw rate in nba history, edging out 2001 Shaq.

[LukaTheGOAT]

How on Earth have the Warriors won 43 games? They are brutal. Curry and Klay shouldn't need Draymond to beat this horrific Lakers team. Of course, now that I've said this, the Warriors will blow us out on the 8th.

their defense was insane with draymond

On that topic

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

Warriors D-Rating before Draymond's injury was historic: 103.2 (9th best defense relative to league average since the ABA/NBA merger in 1977)

Warriors D-Rating since Draymond's injury: 110.8 (Only the 9th best defense in the league over that span)

Warriors are 28-6 with Draymond

15-15 Without Draymond

[70sFan]

Joel Embiid now officially has the highest free throw rate in nba history, edging out 2001 Shaq.

How?

2022 Embiid: 61.4% FTr

2001 Shaq: 68.4% FTr

1984 Dantley: 65.8% FTr

Or did you mean FTA per possession?

[falcolombardi]

off topic but anyone else finds it fascinating how much basketball works around number 10 milestones?

the top offenses and defenses ever top around +10/-10 (for playoffs ir can get higher cause smaller sample size but for multiyear playoffs runs they also top around 10)

best teams ever by Net rating barely go over +10

best scoring seasons ever top close to +10 efficiency

the difference between and awful possesion or a great one is usually +0.1 or -0 1 points (which per 100 is 10 points)

[Doctor MJ]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

Has your opinion Draymond Steph dynamic changed at all? Few months ago you said Steph's +/- numbers were way ahead so you felt more comfortable attributing team success largely to him instead of their twoman game

Before Draymonds injury started keeping him out
Steph averages

27/6/5 on .592ts and +11.2
Steph was in Mvp lead or strong favorite

Since Draymond has been out

24/7/5 on .599ts and +3
Now he's not even top 5 Mvp odds and is barely mentioned behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Demar. Luka could overtake him soon too

Their overall record without Draymond is 15-13 now BTW.

Direct answer is: I really don't see the logic in attributing Curry's +/- success to be dependent on Green's presence, when the team +/- leaderboard looks like this:

Steph Curry +459
Jordan Poole +240
Andrew Wiggins +237
Otto Porter +201
Draymond Green +196

Seriously, I get why the idea that Curry is dependent on Green comes to mind for folks - it's a question I've certainly asked myself all throughout their run together - but the lack of dependence has really never been more clear from what I see when I look at on/off data.

But what I also want to say is:

1. I do think Green's holistic impact is considerably bigger than the +/- says. I think the success of the team with and without him on the court is in part because of his combination of basketball intelligence and attitude. Before he missed all the games he was my clear cut DPOY of the year, and I still rank him as the most valuable defender in the league when healthy.

And I also think it likely that him being hurt hurts the team on a locker room level. It's not just about him literally not being in the locker room, it's that I think the team's supporting cast plays differently when Dray has it him to "Be Draymond". I think he lacked that ability back in '19-20 because he knew the team really just couldn't play at the level he wanted them to play at, and I think he's likely not quite himself attitude-wise when he can't be himself physically. I think that's probably one of the things that's let the helium out of the Warrior zeppelin.

2. I don't think there's any doubt that Curry is literally playing worse now than he was toward the end of last season and in the beginning of this season. I'm hoping this is mostly about Curry getting tired after sprinting to the start of the year and that he's in some ways pacing himself only temporarily until the playoffs. I think this is a factor, but I also don't think it's as simple as that. I think Curry can't just "turn it on". I think he has to find his groove, and if he can't find his groove in the playoffs, there's a serious risk of the team losing in a 1st round upset.

3. But nevertheless, if Dray & Klay can come back and really be themselves, I do think this Warrior team can win the title. That's not meant as a bold prediction, as it's a very big "if", but I'm not saying that we should feel confident that the Warriors can achieve this complete renaissance, only that I haven't seen any reason to doubt the concept.

(Though as I say that, there is the matter of how the Warriors will handle a dominant big in a playoff series. I don't think there's any reason to think that the Warriors playing Warrior-ball fundamentally can't handle such a big, but on the roster right now, I don't think they have anyone to play the necessary man-defense. Maybe I'm selling Looney short, but I certainly get why they still seem all-in on Wiseman despite the disappointment so far. If he can figure it out, he might be exactly what they need in particular match-ups.)

[Doctor MJ]

How on Earth have the Warriors won 43 games? They are brutal. Curry and Klay shouldn't need Draymond to beat this horrific Lakers team. Of course, now that I've said this, the Warriors will blow us out on the 8th.

their defense was insane with draymond

On that topic

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

Warriors D-Rating before Draymond's injury was historic: 103.2 (9th best defense relative to league average since the ABA/NBA merger in 1977)

Warriors D-Rating since Draymond's injury: 110.8 (Only the 9th best defense in the league over that span)

Warriors are 28-6 with Draymond

15-15 Without Draymond

I feel like I'm reading a different graph than everyone else.

Look at the blue line and the way the Warrior defense got worse over time with Draymond, then got better without him, and only after a while later started really falling apart. That's really not the strong correlation the narrative paints it as.

As I've said, I really do think Green is the most valuable defender in the game, so I'm not saying this to knock him relative to other players, but if Green wins the DPOY it won't be because of how badly the team did when he didn't play, but because of the narrative that can really only be constructed by not looking too closely.

[Doctor MJ]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

i don't think it's relevant to my point, but y'know Steve Kerr was on the Warriors last year too.

My point, is that if you were not able to properly predict how good the Warriors would be this year, then you underrated them.

And I would argue that if you significantly underrated them, and you've somehow concluded that this had nothing to do with your evaluation of Kerr - that you understood his value perfectly and were wrong only because of other factors - you're fooling yourself.