Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[nuposse04]

Going 4th seed.

[dangermouse]

Not revising my prediction, just feeling better about it. Sucks for Pacers fans, especially seeing that happen omg. Arenas had a terrible injury, but that was horrific. I cant get rid of the image of his leg...

[nate33]

Gotta revise my prediction too. Instead of Indy beating us 3-1 this season, it now looks more like 1-3. That's +2 wins. We should also finish ahead of Indy in the standings so that's +1 in my standings prediction. So now, instead of 46 wins and a 5th seed, I'm predicting 48 wins and a 4th seed.

Man, the East is going to totally suck again this year.

[stevemcqueen1]

Pacers were a top three seed and the favorites to win the East IMO. That injury was absolutely devastating. And in a freaking Team USA scrimmage. The Basketball Gods punished him for playing for his country while guys like Love and Aldridge pussed out. The Basketball Gods are cruel bastards. We would know.

Now I honestly don't even know if Indy makes the playoffs. What a terrible last couple of months it's been for that franchise. That is some Les Boulez level awful luck.

Unless this Kevin Love thing gets done, I think Toronto and Washington are the top two seeds now.

[Illmatic12]

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

If this were the case, the FO should not have given permission to Nene to play in World Cup basketball, that's what the Mavs and Spurs have done with Manu and Dirk.

Manu was trying to play through an injury. Not the same at all

[Illmatic12]

Pacers were a top three seed and the favorites to win the East IMO. That injury was absolutely devastating. And in a freaking Team USA scrimmage. The Basketball Gods punished him for playing for his country while guys like Love and Aldridge pussed out. The Basketball Gods are cruel bastards. We would know.

Now I honestly don't even know if Indy makes the playoffs. What a terrible last couple of months it's been for that franchise. That is some Les Boulez level awful luck.

Unless this Kevin Love thing gets done, I think Toronto and Washington are the top two seeds now.

The Kevin Love thing is getting done. Take it to the bank.


My East predictions:


Chicago - even if Rose is only 75%, that should be good enough
Cleveland - they'll start out slow as Love/LBJ adjust, but probably roll into the postseason
Washington - improvement from the young guys, great depth and a stout frontcourt
Toronto - Atlantic division will guarantee them HCA
Charlotte - great defense, Big Al does what he does once again
Atlanta - same team from last year that was on pace for 45 wins, but the East is tougher
Brooklyn - Lopez back, and Williams should be healthier
New York - Don't think they were as bad as they showed last year. Melo will take his game to another level


So I have us finishing 3rd

[stevemcqueen1]

Pacers were a top three seed and the favorites to win the East IMO. That injury was absolutely devastating. And in a freaking Team USA scrimmage. The Basketball Gods punished him for playing for his country while guys like Love and Aldridge pussed out. The Basketball Gods are cruel bastards. We would know.

Now I honestly don't even know if Indy makes the playoffs. What a terrible last couple of months it's been for that franchise. That is some Les Boulez level awful luck.

Unless this Kevin Love thing gets done, I think Toronto and Washington are the top two seeds now.

The Kevin Love thing is getting done. Take it to the bank.


My East predictions:


Chicago - even if Rose is only 75%, that should be good enough
Cleveland - they'll start out slow as Love/LBJ adjust, but probably roll into the postseason
Washington - improvement from the young guys, great depth and a stout frontcourt
Toronto - Atlantic division will guarantee them HCA
Charlotte - great defense, Big Al does what he does once again
Atlanta - same team from last year that was on pace for 45 wins, but the East is tougher
Brooklyn - Lopez back, and Williams should be healthier
New York - Don't think they were as bad as they showed last year. Melo will take his game to another level


So I have us finishing 3rd

I can see it playing out like that. But I have a few thoughts that contradict your prediction.

I think that, even with Love, Cleveland is going to take time to come together and struggle down the stretch. Neither Love nor Irving has played a full season before. Love's 2,800 minutes last season was the most he's ever played and Kyrie's only played 2,600 before. Those guys are going to get worn down and struggle down the stretch just like our guys did. Especially once they hit the postseason for the first time. Most of that team hasn't made the playoffs before, and the guys who have outside LeBron--Miller, Varejao, Haywood, Jones--are injury prone. And LeBron showed signs of wear last season. I can see Cleveland starting slow as they try to adjust, catching fire in the middle of the season, then fading late.

Rose is tough to peg. He looked good last night but remember how he started last season. He's missed most of the past three years. He's going to struggle this season IMO. There will be games where he looks like an all star again and a whole lot more where he he'll go 3-10 and 13 points. But his personal popularity will be such he'll make the AS game as a starter anyway.

And I think the Gasol/McDermott/Mirotic additions are a lot more marginal than people touting the Bulls are thinking. Gasol is a less impactful acquisition than Paul Pierce IMO and I don't think McDermott and Mirotic will end up making a huge impact this season. I could be wrong about McDermott, I really like him. I thought he was the best rookie in Vegas. But history is against McDermott getting much burn this year. They're still a slow team outside Rose. Their offense still isn't that intimidating. And I'd be surprised if they get 80 games from both Noah and Gibson again.

Charlotte as a fifth seed sounds about right. But I think they're no threat in the playoffs. Throwing a max offer at Hayward shows how desperate they are for creative offensive talent. They've got a lot of nice players and a good coach but they don't have any elite players and they're totally reliant on Al Jefferson. Jefferson has plantar fasciitis and they're not getting 35 minutes a night from him again. Not at the level he played last season. I think they win upper 40s and get bounced by Cleveland or Chicago in the first round. But I do think they'll finally win their first playoff game this season.

I think Miami will make the postseason as 7th or 8th seed. I think they finish around .500 and I like their chances to make the playoffs over New York. I also think Atlanta has a thin roster and is another Horford injury away from being a four man team. With good health, they're solid. But they can't rely on Horford any more than we can rely on Nene.

I also think you're sleeping on Toronto at fourth. I think they've got a great shot at the one seed. Brooklyn got a bit worse and Boston won't be truly competitive yet. The Knicks are a nonfactor IMO. And Philly will be awful. The Raptors are pretty much bringing everyone back from last year and will have better chemistry and more continuity than anyone else in the East. They've got a true star on a great contract with DeRozan and Lowry is good. Valanciunas is probably going to get pretty good. Johnson is good. They defend well and Casey is a good coach and they overachieve in the W/L column.

They don't scare me in the playoffs at all. And they did get great injury luck last season. But they are exactly the type of team that can clean up in the regular season and win upper 50's and get the one seed. I mean they'll probably get 14 or 15 wins off division games alone. Chicago and Cleveland play in a rough division and have a lot of questions of their own.

I can see this happening:

1.) Toronto
2.) Washington
3.) Cleveland
4.) Chicago
5.) Charlotte
6.) Brooklyn
7.) Atlanta
8.) Miami

Could also see Detroit making big strides too. They have better players than Atlanta, Brooklyn, and Miami do.

[Illmatic12]

Actually yeah, I agree that Miami will make it over NYK. I forgot about them for some reason. Wade (for however many games he plays) + Bosh + Deng is still solid.

I don't think Cleveland or Chicago will be 60+ win juggernauts, both teams will struggle at various points in the season. But at the end of the season, I expect those teams to have the most wins - CHI due to Thibs + defensive talent, CLE due to sheer offensive talent. They simply have a larger margin for error than all the other East teams.

Agreed on Big Al's injury concerns, I didn't want to say it. I hope he stays healthy because the guy is a beast, but plantar fasciitis is a b****, it doesn't just go away. Wouldn't surprise me if he misses time this season.

I could see a team like Toronto being a darkhorse for #1 seed ,but there are too many "ifs".. if Lowry continues playing way above his head, if they stay healthy, if Valanciunas lives up to his potential, etc. They should still win their division but as you said no one will be afraid of them in the playoffs.


At the end of the day, Chicago and Cleveland have the fewest "ifs" imo. A team with Lebron James is going to win 50+ games, there's no question there. An elite defensive team coached by Thibodeau is going to be around that mark as well. The most likely scenario seems to be that those are the top two teams, or at least two of the top three teams in the conference.

[stevemcqueen1]

I could see a team like Toronto being a darkhorse for #1 seed ,but there are too many "ifs".. if Lowry continues playing way above his head, if they stay healthy, if Valanciunas lives up to his potential, etc. They should still win their division but as you said no one will be afraid of them in the playoffs.

At the end of the day, Chicago and Cleveland have the fewest "ifs" imo. A team with Lebron James is going to win 50+ games, there's no question there. An elite defensive team coached by Thibodeau is going to be around that mark as well. The most likely scenario seems to be that those are the top two teams, or at least two of the top three teams in the conference.

I'm on the other side on Chicago and Cleveland. I think they have a lot more ifs than Toronto and we do. We're basically returning our same team and Toronto is, even more so. There is built up chemistry and continuity in place that isn't there at all in Cleveland, and Chicago is going to be adjusting to basically two new starters, one of which is their franchise player returning from two seasons off.

Toronto is hitting that sweet spot in their run. Their key younger players in Ross, DeRozan, and Valanciunas are entering the front end of their prime. DeRozan looks really good now. The best SG in the East and arguably the second best behind Harden. The young talent Cleveland and Chicago added this offseason and last offseason are still some years away by contrast. Kyle Lowry has had some injuries, and it's probably a good bet he'll miss more games this year. But he's in the heart of his prime years and found the right situation finally. Enough support to keep his usage rate where it needs to be. Maybe he did play way over his head last season. But didn't Noah and Gibson also?

Toronto is going into the season with every spot in a 10 man rotation figured out and every key player returning from last season. They defend well and have a good offense with a quality go to creator in DeRozan, who looks poised for a breakout season. No obvious weaknesses on the roster and a quality coach and front office running the show. Their division sucks. If they get a home heavy first month, they can get off to a really good start like Indy did last year, and pace themselves as the 1 seed. I don't really see many question marks with them.

Chicago and Cleveland OTOH, I see a lot of question marks. Cleveland's roster is still undergoing drastic reconstruction. They've got a new coach. A whole new franchise player coming in and taking over the locker room plus probably another guy in Kevin Love who will be their second best player and leader. Those are drastic identity changes. Three All Stars who are going to have to figure out how to play together. And the team that was there before them sucked, so their depth won't be good. Their defense will suck. Almost all of their key players outside LeBron are injury concerns. And most of their team hasn't been to the postseason. I think you're right, their offense will be awesome and give them a margin for error but they're going to go through growing pains this season and lose more games than people are expecting.

And Chicago's ceiling depends on Rose, the biggest question mark in the NBA going into the season. How good is that team if Derrick Rose's season goes something like this: ~65 games played, ~ 2,200 minutes, 18 or 19 PPG on 40% shooting with 5 APG and ~16 PER?

We seem to agree about the Wizards, but disagree about the ceilings of Chicago and Cleveland. We agree about the ultimate ceiling of Toronto, they aren't really a scary playoff team. But neither are Cleveland nor Chicago IMO.

[TGW]

Except we're not returning the same team—that's a fallacy unless you think Ariza was chopped liver last year.

Ariza was not only the best defender on this team, he was one of the best defenders in the NBA. You don't just lose a player like that and expect the replacement to do as good a job.

[Illmatic12]

I could see a team like Toronto being a darkhorse for #1 seed ,but there are too many "ifs".. if Lowry continues playing way above his head, if they stay healthy, if Valanciunas lives up to his potential, etc. They should still win their division but as you said no one will be afraid of them in the playoffs.

At the end of the day, Chicago and Cleveland have the fewest "ifs" imo. A team with Lebron James is going to win 50+ games, there's no question there. An elite defensive team coached by Thibodeau is going to be around that mark as well. The most likely scenario seems to be that those are the top two teams, or at least two of the top three teams in the conference.

I'm on the other side on Chicago and Cleveland. I think they have a lot more ifs than Toronto and we do. We're basically returning our same team and Toronto is, even more so. There is built up chemistry and continuity in place that isn't there at all in Cleveland, and Chicago is going to be adjusting to basically two new starters, one of which is their franchise player returning from two seasons off.

Toronto is hitting that sweet spot in their run. Their key younger players in Ross, DeRozan, and Valanciunas are entering the front end of their prime. DeRozan looks really good now. The best SG in the East and arguably the second best behind Harden. The young talent Cleveland and Chicago added this offseason and last offseason are still some years away by contrast. Kyle Lowry has had some injuries, and it's probably a good bet he'll miss more games this year. But he's in the heart of his prime years and found the right situation finally. Enough support to keep his usage rate where it needs to be. Maybe he did play way over his head last season. But didn't Noah and Gibson also?

Toronto is going into the season with every spot in a 10 man rotation figured out and every key player returning from last season. They defend well and have a good offense with a quality go to creator in DeRozan, who looks poised for a breakout season. No obvious weaknesses on the roster and a quality coach and front office running the show. Their division sucks. If they get a home heavy first month, they can get off to a really good start like Indy did last year, and pace themselves as the 1 seed. I don't really see many question marks with them.

Chicago and Cleveland OTOH, I see a lot of question marks. Cleveland's roster is still undergoing drastic reconstruction. They've got a new coach. A whole new franchise player coming in and taking over the locker room plus probably another guy in Kevin Love who will be their second best player and leader. Those are drastic identity changes. Three All Stars who are going to have to figure out how to play together. And the team that was there before them sucked, so their depth won't be good. Their defense will suck. Almost all of their key players outside LeBron are injury concerns. And most of their team hasn't been to the postseason. I think you're right, their offense will be awesome and give them a margin for error but they're going to go through growing pains this season and lose more games than people are expecting.

And Chicago's ceiling depends on Rose, the biggest question mark in the NBA going into the season. How good is that team if Derrick Rose's season goes something like this: ~65 games played, ~ 2,200 minutes, 18 or 19 PPG on 40% shooting with 5 APG and ~16 PER?

We seem to agree about the Wizards, but disagree about the ceilings of Chicago and Cleveland. We agree about the ultimate ceiling of Toronto, they aren't really a scary playoff team. But neither are Cleveland nor Chicago IMO.

I think there are definitely question marks with Toronto. Their team is still mostly full of young, unproven players, we have no idea how they will perform next season when the target will be on their backs. I would feel more comfortable projecting them to take a leap if they had a rising superstar, or some proven winners on their squad. Or an elite coach who has a track record of winning.

Chicago won as many games as Toronto despite their depleted roster, and they're adding Rose (even if he isn't 100%, it's an upgrade), Gasol, etc. They have an elite coach and proven vets who have chemistry with each other, and know how to play winning basketball. Cleveland has a transcendent superstar in Lebron James, (potentially) an All-Star big man who averaged 26/14, and an All-Star point guard 20+ppg scorer. Personally, based on my experience watching the NBA, I'm going to lean towards those two teams until further notice.

I see that you're envisioning some scenario where things fall apart for those two teams. Certainly that's possible. But until further notice I'm going to take the default stance that 1) a Thibs coached team is going to get their s*** together fairly quickly and 2) a team led by Lebron James is going to win a lot of games. Just my opinion though, it will be fun to see how things play out. I would actually love for CLE/CHI to fall apart and for a darkhorse team to take 1-seed, but I just don't think it's very likely.

[Illmatic12]

Except we're not returning the same team—that's a fallacy unless you think Ariza was chopped liver last year.

Ariza was not only the best defender on this team, he was one of the best defenders in the NBA. You don't just lose a player like that and expect the replacement to do as good a job.

It's not the same team, it's a better team. We can't expect anyone to exactly replace Ariza's role on the team, but I think it's likely that in the aggregate our offseason moves + player improvement should result in an increase in the W column.

[closg00]

I'm not assuming perfect health from Nene, I'm assuming that with better depth and management of his minutes (Gortat said specifically that the team was making Nene's health and minutes management a priority next season) he should be able to avoid any major injury incidents. I think that's fair.

Nene normally takes games off here and there for soreness, little dings, etc (which would probably add up to around 15-20 missed games). He doesn't normally sprain his MCL.

If this were the case, the FO should not have given permission to Nene to play in World Cup basketball, that's what the Mavs and Spurs have done with Manu and Dirk.

Manu was trying to play through an injury. Not the same at all

I don't understand your point. The Spurs FO nixed Manu playing in World Cup, it was their call to make, not Manu's apparently.

[dckingsfan]

If this were the case, the FO should not have given permission to Nene to play in World Cup basketball, that's what the Mavs and Spurs have done with Manu and Dirk.

Manu was trying to play through an injury. Not the same at all

I don't understand your point. The Spurs FO nixed Manu playing in World Cup, it was their call to make, not Manu's apparently.

The Spurs FO was able to cite medical evidence of an injury - I believe there is an agreement between the NBA and FIBA on this issue vs. the "possibility of injury" during an event.

[dckingsfan]

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBabyMaker
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, hands11, MOrgil, barelyawake
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, keynote, long suffrin' boulez fan, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, nate33
47 - DCKingsFan, The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, Severn Hoos, The Fax
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, J-Ves
44 - MJG, verbal8
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire
40 - BigA

ECS

1st -
2nd - leswizards, deneem4, stevemcqueen1, bgroban
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12
4th - gesa2, DCZards, J-Ves, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan
6th - Nivek
7th
8th - BigA

[dckingsfan]

Except we're not returning the same team—that's a fallacy unless you think Ariza was chopped liver last year.

Ariza was not only the best defender on this team, he was one of the best defenders in the NBA. You don't just lose a player like that and expect the replacement to do as good a job.

So, what is your prediction on the EC standings for the Wizards?

[dckingsfan]

Mean: 48.66
Median: 48.5
Mode: 48
Range 17

And

Mean: 3.7
Median: 4
Mode: 3.5
Range: 7

[Jimmy Recard]

I'm thinking 49 wins

[Earth2Ted]

45-37, 5th place in the conference.

I like the team, I like what Ernie has done, both short term with Pierce, Humphries, and Blair coming in, and the long term decision to re-up Gortat but not Ariza (leaving us with flexibility for the big KD sweepstakes in 2 years).

I feel better about Otto and Glen Rice Jr after their showing in summer league- man, Otto looked AWFUL in Vegas in 2013! He's got a ways to go, but he may yet be the guy we thought he was when he dominated Syracuse in the Carrier Dome his final year in college.

We have 50 win talent but there will be injuries that keep us from getting there. As nate pointed out, the guys that might break down this year more than last would be Wall (he was lucky to be as healthy as he was last year), and Gortat. Nene is made of glass at this point in his career- especially with him playing international ball this summer.

Bulls, Cavs, Heat, and Raptors (in no particular order) beat us in the standings this year. Paul George's injury bumps us ahead of Indy and gives us 1 more win on the year

[JWizmentality]

With Indy down I will put us down for 52 wins (3rd seed). I think we've matured and don't see us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory quite as much as we did last year. Hopefully we also improve on our dreadful record against +500. teams.