2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[iggymcfrack]

For Offensive Player of the Year, I think it's wise to start with a reminder that basically every year now we're seeing offenses learn to get more effective at scoring the ball, and so in any given season, we're probably looking at the most effective (regular season) offense we've ever seen.

The Sacramento Kings this year have the best ORtg in history, and have a near 3 point edge over the best rating last year.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't consider relative dominance within era when looking to do cross-era comparisons, but I think it's important to understand that being #1 in offense at this time, and doing so "with a bullet", should be seen as a really big deal (with the one caveat being "let's see how it looks in the playoffs".

As such, I think it makes sense to mention a King for this award. Honestly, I think Fox is worthy of being put forth, but I'm going to give the nod to Domantas Sabonis who has the better box score all-in-ones, played considerably more, and whose arrival was the key on-court catalyst to the team emerging as it has.

This to say that I'd be fine with having Sabonis in the top spot in theory...but of course anything we look at ends up favoring Jokic over Sabonis, including on-court ORtg as well as all the other more sophisticated stuff.

There's an obvious guy to take the 3rd spot in the ballot in Joel Embiid. I think it's pretty doable to make the case for Embiid over Sabonis even without his major advantage on defense, but Sabonis also played more which had everything to do with Sacramento achieving their record breaking offense.

Now, it's also true that Sabonis also played considerably more than Jokic, and that could be used to argue for Sabonis over Jokic. To me this is where it matters that Denver was a #1 seed that seemed to take their foot off the gas at the end. I can respect a perspective that that time period should give Sabonis the nod over Jokic, but I just can't swing my vote based on stuff that doesn't seem like it really mattered.

So for now:
1. Nikola Jokic
2. Domantas Sabonis
3. Joel Embiid

Of course there's all sorts of stars with their knives out ready to make a run up this list. I can't imagine anyone will be surprised if Curry or Butler ends up crashing the party.

One thing I will say for both this and OPOY is that I'm really not sure how I'll see the members of the Phoenix Suns when considering their candidacies.

If I believe KD is the best player and/or offensive player in the playoffs as he leads the team to a title? Normally my answer would be yes, but the pre-Phoenix year of his also matters to me, and he did massive damage to that franchise with his action during this season.

Then there's Devin Booker to consider. He may well have an argument of having the best overall year of anyone on the NBA champs if the Suns win the title. How will his standing be affected by Durant?

I haven’t thought much about OPOY until now, but my gut is that since you’re just measuring one skill rather than an overall package, I’d be much less likely to punish guys like Dame and Luka for their lack of team success. I don’t think I can get there with Sabonis or Fox unless they really take it to another level in the playoffs and at least make a conference finals run. I mean if the ORtgs are similar with Dame, Fox, and Sabonis on the floor, who’s more responsible in each case? The Kings have a perfectly built 5 man unit while Portland’s offense is all Dame all the time. I’m pretty sure I’d have Jokic #1 and Dame #2 right now, but I’d have to go into more depth to really go any further than that.

I'm curious what the lone skill you believe I'm looking at is

For Dame the big issue for me is the lack of play. Had he played 82 games there wouldn't be a question.

Luka's an entirely different animal for me because I am very critical of him. Now, he has made my OPOY ballot twice in his career so far so it's not like I've never considered him before, but in a nutshell - I don't think it makes sense to look at Luka as someone who is an innocent victim playing for a franchise that has done everything wrong for reasons that have no connection to him.

By one skill I just mean that offense is one part of basketball. You’re measuring a skill rather than total package as a team player. With Dame, I don’t blame him for the lack of games played since he was ready to play and he just got shut down for being in such a bad team. It wasn’t even because they played bad with him on the floor. I think Dame had a better NetRtg than Fox. It was all the bench. You can arguably be less valuable because you play with a worse bench, but you definitely can’t be a worse offensive player because you have a worse bench.

[Doctor MJ]

I haven’t thought much about OPOY until now, but my gut is that since you’re just measuring one skill rather than an overall package, I’d be much less likely to punish guys like Dame and Luka for their lack of team success. I don’t think I can get there with Sabonis or Fox unless they really take it to another level in the playoffs and at least make a conference finals run. I mean if the ORtgs are similar with Dame, Fox, and Sabonis on the floor, who’s more responsible in each case? The Kings have a perfectly built 5 man unit while Portland’s offense is all Dame all the time. I’m pretty sure I’d have Jokic #1 and Dame #2 right now, but I’d have to go into more depth to really go any further than that.

I'm curious what the lone skill you believe I'm looking at is

For Dame the big issue for me is the lack of play. Had he played 82 games there wouldn't be a question.

Luka's an entirely different animal for me because I am very critical of him. Now, he has made my OPOY ballot twice in his career so far so it's not like I've never considered him before, but in a nutshell - I don't think it makes sense to look at Luka as someone who is an innocent victim playing for a franchise that has done everything wrong for reasons that have no connection to him.

By one skill I just mean that offense is one part of basketball. You’re measuring a skill rather than total package as a team player. With Dame, I don’t blame him for the lack of games played since he was ready to play and he just got shut down for being in such a bad team. It wasn’t even because they played bad with him on the floor. I think Dame had a better NetRtg than Fox. It was all the bench. You can arguably be less valuable because you play with a worse bench, but you definitely can’t be a worse offensive player because you have a worse bench.

I think this is a reasonable viewpoint - one of myriad for this project - and personally I'll continue to listen to arguments for Dame for OPOY until we voted.

I will say your words raise the question:

If missing a ton of games doesn't matter for an OPOY, why should it matter for POY?

I say this as someone for whom it obviously does matter for both...but who would have probably voted for Bill Walton for MVP in '77-78.

[iggymcfrack]

I'm curious what the lone skill you believe I'm looking at is

For Dame the big issue for me is the lack of play. Had he played 82 games there wouldn't be a question.

Luka's an entirely different animal for me because I am very critical of him. Now, he has made my OPOY ballot twice in his career so far so it's not like I've never considered him before, but in a nutshell - I don't think it makes sense to look at Luka as someone who is an innocent victim playing for a franchise that has done everything wrong for reasons that have no connection to him.

By one skill I just mean that offense is one part of basketball. You’re measuring a skill rather than total package as a team player. With Dame, I don’t blame him for the lack of games played since he was ready to play and he just got shut down for being in such a bad team. It wasn’t even because they played bad with him on the floor. I think Dame had a better NetRtg than Fox. It was all the bench. You can arguably be less valuable because you play with a worse bench, but you definitely can’t be a worse offensive player because you have a worse bench.

I think this is a reasonable viewpoint - one of myriad for this project - and personally I'll continue to listen to arguments for Dame for OPOY until we voted.

I will say your words raise the question:

If missing a ton of games doesn't matter for an OPOY, why should it matter for POY?

I say this as someone for whom it obviously does matter for both...but who would have probably voted for Bill Walton for MVP in '77-78.

I think in this case there’s a difference in that Dame was ready to play 68 games and they just built such a garbage supporting cast around him that they shut him down. It’s not really his fault. I punished Luka more for missing the play-in, but still not a ton. I dropped him from 5th to 6th in my pre-playoffs POY standings slotting him behind Butler, but I see it different than not being available to play.

[OhayoKD]

I get he played under 50 games and this is coming from one who isn’t that high on him in an AT sense & one who is not a fan by any means, but I think Durant should be getting more traction in POY / OPOY conversations. We’ll see what happens this playoffs, but on a per possession basis I’m happy to talk through my thought process here.

For “availability is the best ability” people, I hear you.. with all of this being said.

Should he? By the stats being used to hype Dame as an OPOY, Durant is well behind the likes of Lebron and Steph per posession on top of playing significantly less. Never mind Jokic. Arguably being outplayed by westbrook in back to back games is not a great start for the playoff case

[rk2023]

I get he played under 50 games and this is coming from one who isn’t that high on him in an AT sense & one who is not a fan by any means, but I think Durant should be getting more traction in POY / OPOY conversations. We’ll see what happens this playoffs, but on a per possession basis I’m happy to talk through my thought process here.

For “availability is the best ability” people, I hear you.. with all of this being said.

Should he? By the stats being used to hype Dame as an OPOY, Durant is well behind the likes of Lebron and Steph per posession on top of playing significantly less. Never mind Jokic. Arguably being outplayed by westbrook in back to back games is not a great start for the playoff case

Yea, mixed bag for me. I think he’s used his talent and just sort of natural potency to have a pretty solid baseline of production, but it is against a pretty meh team with pretty gimmicky defense and a bona-fide superstar out for 1/3 games. Very arguable that Booker, Kawhi, and Westbrook have all “done more” for the two respective teams after three games of play. Watched G1/2 pretty attentively, but missed tonight - so unsure what conclusively to say. I guess we’ll see what happens but by no means would I feel bad about a Phoenix flameout to come

[rk2023]

Regarding Player of the Year Traction:

I'm aware of the RS time Stephen Curry has missed this year. It's what has been keeping me from not including him *that* highly in regular season All-NBA voting. With that being said, he has been phenomenal in this years' playoffs thus-far.

Curry stats:

Spoiler:

31.5/5.0/3.8
64.8% TS
117.7 non-garbage-time ORTG with Curry on (22.6 net-swing)

There's still a lot of time left and the Kings-Warriors itself is tied 2-2. Who knows if the Warriors win this series, and how far they go if they do (would say they have a punchers' chance - though I have them as a 2nd round exit in my bracket).

Regardless, if we are looking at player ability and impact, I don't think there would be more than 2 players (Giannis and Jokic) I would take over Curry in a PS setting. This holds tangible ramifications in terms of how I see P.O.Y candidacy, and am wondering if others agree/disagree.

As further food for thought I see as a good conversation to start, it's obscene Curry is doing this at the age of 35.

Some Historical company he finds himself in right now:

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Looking at / possession impact when healthy rather than aggregate, I think Curry is making a case to be around or at the best age 35 season of all time (especially offensively).

My top 'age 35' seasons/post-seasons:
1. 2020 James
2. 1998 Jordan
3. 1969 Russell
4. 1972 Chamberlain
5. 2010 Nash

My top 'age 35' seasons/post-seasons looking offensively (last two more-so speculation):
1. 2010 Nash
2. 2020 James
3. 1998 Jordan
4. 2014 Nowitzki?
5. 1983 Abdul-Jabbar?

Unsure where exactly I'd place him, but I could see Curry being my #1 in the latter if his current playoff performance is sustainable.

On that note, linking some Retro-P.O.Y projects as a few of these campaigns garnered a pretty significant P.O.Y. share amidst being formally selected as the out-right winner - excluding Wilt due to Kareem being selected. Nash garnered .100 P.O.Y. shares FWIW, all of the results are in the final pages of each thread.

1969 Bill Russell:

Spoiler:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1049026

1998 Michael Jordan:

Spoiler:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1013034

2020 LeBron James:

Spoiler:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2006607&start=20#p85861566

1972 Wilt Chamberlain:

Spoiler:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1046843

[AEnigma]

If Steph makes the conference finals then he will automatically be a strong contender for my Player of the Year (and that case would improve the further he goes), and I already had him pretty securely in my top three candidates for Offensive Player of the Year. However, I am not too invested on commenting on those ideas four games into the postseason.

For example, and this has been touched on in the season discussion thread, right now Leon Rose is probably going to finish above Koby Altman for my Executive of the Year pick. Altman was my regular season selection because he made a series of moves culminating in a top two SRS team, but right now we are witnessing a failure to convert that into postseason success. If the Cavaliers pull off the 3-1 comeback, then that can spin right back around, but as it stands, the Knicks looks better constructed for the postseason. As another example, Mike Brown was my regular season coach of the year, but losing in the first round will severely hamper his chances to make my official ballot (potential exception: the better the Warriors look, the better the Kings look). Third example, Malcolm Brogdon was not on my regular season Sixth Man ballot, but four games into this postseason, he is back in the top three.

I might review key edits in my ballots after a series, but any edits during a series are probably too variable.

[rk2023]

If Steph makes the conference finals then he will automatically be a strong contender for my Player of the Year (and that case would improve the further he goes), and I already had him pretty securely in my top three candidates for Offensive Player of the Year. However, I am not too invested on commenting on those ideas four games into the postseason.

For example, and this has been touched on in the season discussion thread, right now Leon Rose is probably going to finish above Koby Altman for my Executive of the Year pick. Altman was my regular season selection because he made a series of moves culminating in a top two SRS team, but right now we are witnessing a failure to convert that into postseason success. If the Cavaliers pull off the 3-1 comeback, then that can spin right back around, but as it stands, the Knicks looks better constructed for the postseason. As another example, Mike Brown was my regular season coach of the year, but losing in the first round will severely hamper his chances to make my official ballot (potential exception: the better the Warriors look, the better the Kings look). Third example, Malcolm Brogdon was not on my regular season Sixth Man ballot, but four games into this postseason, he is back in the top three.

I might review key edits in my ballots after a series, but any edits during a series are probably too variable.

Yeah, I think all of this rationale you layed out is reasonably consistent and sound without a doubt. I'm just one who always is more iterative, open to share a thought-bubble that pops up, and keen for discourse in general - it's just me. Haven't gotten close to thinking about a ballot yet, but there's been many names I have thought of for all the more many reasons across all of the major awards. Want to come to a consistent criteria for how I see each before talking myself into a particular candidate/selection - that said.

[Doctor MJ]

Regardless, if we are looking at player ability and impact, I don't think there would be more than 2 players (Giannis and Jokic) I would take over Curry in a PS setting. This holds tangible ramifications in terms of how I see P.O.Y candidacy, and am wondering if others agree/disagree.

Curry's certainly off to the type of quick playoff start that if continued and carried through to a deep run could make him leap up my lists. I tend to wait until a round is done before I do an iterative update, but I can say that I had Sabonis in my regular season OPOY ballot (because of guys like Curry missing games), and Curry will certainly leapfrog him if Curry keeps doing his thing and his team wins the series...though he won't be the only one.

[Colbinii]

Regardless, if we are looking at player ability and impact, I don't think there would be more than 2 players (Giannis and Jokic) I would take over Curry in a PS setting. This holds tangible ramifications in terms of how I see P.O.Y candidacy, and am wondering if others agree/disagree.

Curry's certainly off to the type of quick playoff start that if continued and carried through to a deep run could make him leap up my lists. I tend to wait until a round is done before I do an iterative update, but I can say that I had Sabonis in my regular season OPOY ballot (because of guys like Curry missing games), and Curry will certainly leapfrog him if Curry keeps doing his thing and his team wins the series...though he won't be the only one.

Not that Klay would ever deserve discussion in the OPOY, but he is quietly putting together his best offensive post-season since 2016.

Interesting fact: Prior to this post-season, his % assisted FGs were 68%/91% [2P/3P] and this post-season he is at 50%/70%. Small sample size, but he is scoring incredibly well.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yeah if the heat make the second round Jimmy is top 5 for sure lol

If the heat make a legit run and Jimmy keeps this BS Jimmy has an argument for number 1 for sure.

[iggymcfrack]

I had Jimmy #5 at the end of the regular season. Right now I’d have him #3 behind Jokic and Embiid. He’s still got a loooooong way to go to catch Joker, but if Embiid misses some time against Boston and the Sixers go out in the second round while the Heat beat the Knicks to go to the conference finals, I could see Jimmy at #2 pretty easily. Honestly it might just take Miami advancing further than Philly OR Jimmy continuing to play well while Embiid has a meh series nursing an injury. I can’t see Jimmy at #1 though unless the Heat actually win the title. He’s legit been the 3rd best player in the league since COVID though if you take that period as a whole.

[70sFan]

Regardless, if we are looking at player ability and impact, I don't think there would be more than 2 players (Giannis and Jokic) I would take over Curry in a PS setting. This holds tangible ramifications in terms of how I see P.O.Y candidacy, and am wondering if others agree/disagree.

Curry's certainly off to the type of quick playoff start that if continued and carried through to a deep run could make him leap up my lists. I tend to wait until a round is done before I do an iterative update, but I can say that I had Sabonis in my regular season OPOY ballot (because of guys like Curry missing games), and Curry will certainly leapfrog him if Curry keeps doing his thing and his team wins the series...though he won't be the only one.

Not that Klay would ever deserve discussion in the OPOY, but he is quietly putting together his best offensive post-season since 2016.

Interesting fact: Prior to this post-season, his % assisted FGs were 68%/91% [2P/3P] and this post-season he is at 50%/70%. Small sample size, but he is scoring incredibly well.

I am also impressed by how well Klay has been playing this series. Worth mentioning that it's against Sacramento defense though...

[70sFan]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

[Doctor MJ]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

Totally up in the air. My 3 top regular season guys - Brook, Mobley, JJJ - all look poised to be upset in the first round.

[OhayoKD]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

Totally up in the air. My 3 top regular season guys - Brook, Mobley, JJJ - all look poised to be upset in the first round.

JJJ might exit in the first round but I'd argue he's elevated from his regular season play. If he was dpoy-worthy playing 29mpg, keeping that up for 37mpg(in addition to whatever per-possession "impact" comes from not fouling) shouldn't really hurt his case.

Brook and Mobley have had their weaknesses exploited(with Lopez really struggling without Giannis's coverage as many might have predicted), but I think JJJ's made his argument stronger if anything(though maybe mpg should have played a bigger factor in how we evaluated his regular season?)

Think these playoffs have reinforced the idea that "stay-at-home" rim protection isn't all that viable for anchoring resilient playoff defense. Mobly and Brook probably fit what people "think" Gobert is/was and the results have been brutal

[Colbinii]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

Green, JJJ and AD have been most impressive this post-season thus far. Bam has also been excellent.

[70sFan]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

Totally up in the air. My 3 top regular season guys - Brook, Mobley, JJJ - all look poised to be upset in the first round.

True but to be fair - I don't see this as a huge negative for either, as they play well (well, can't say anything about Mobley - haven't watched a single game from that series).

[70sFan]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

Green, JJJ and AD have been most impressive this post-season thus far. Bam has also been excellent.

I also think Lopez has been very good so far, though he's in a bad position (so is JJJ though).

To me, Davis looks the best in the league right now - but it could be matchup specific with such a small sample.

[MyUniBroDavis]

What's your thought on DPOY right now?

I think AD has been by far the best defender this postseason so far, and outside of missing games he was probably a top 5 defender in the RS as well