RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Jerry West)

[One_and_Done]

You can't 'adjust for longevity'. It's too hypothetical. It would be like 'adjusting' for Bill Walton by saying with today's medicine he'd have played longer. Would he? We have no way to know. Maybe Mikan breaks down if he tries to play longer.

You only get credit for the games you actually played.

[Doctor MJ]

So, just to share some thoughts on the Nomination vote:

I'll probably be siding with Karl Malone with my 1st vote.
My 2nd vote will probably go to either Julius Erving or Kevin Durant.
Moses Malone, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade & Chris Paul are also on my mind.

Particularly looking for more thoughts on Erving & Durant with respect to each other and other guys.

[ijspeelman]

I think Oscar has a very interesting case for the most robust skillset in the league history and I don't think anything we've seen from him in the playoffs changes that. Oscar was a massive 6'5 220 lbs man (basically a forward body) who could handle the ball against KC Jones pressure with restricted ball-handling rules, while being the best playmaker in the league history up to that point. A lot of people rave about West shooting ability (rightfully so, he was a pull-up monster) but Oscar was arguably a better shooter and the very limited shooting data from trex suggests he's actually more accurate (though it could be useless given the sample). He was less known for that because he could force the issue inside more and he was a masterful post player as well. He was also the first player ever who mastered P&R play. I mean, you can't find any weakness in his offensive repertoire.

For people unfamiliar with prime Oscar game, here are a few montages I could find at the NBA.com... which means they have full games hidden in their archives:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Where I struggle most for Robertson v West is while Robertson is more efficient (+1.2% rTS% compared to West), West shot more (+2.6 estimated FGA/75 possessions). Robertson, similar to Magic Johnson, shot very nearly volume-wise like a league average player. whereas West was taking the load of the offense even with Elgin on the team with him. I can see either West > Oscar or West = Oscar in regards to scoring.

Robertson does get a lot of his value through his elite passing. I have yet to do a film deep dive into West's passing ability so I don't want to compare them directly. I can basically see that APG favor Robertson's early career and West's later career which is fairly interesting (overall it is favors Robertson).

Does West's perimeter defense make up value compared to Robertson's advantage in playmaking?

I don't know.

[trelos6]

So turns out, I made a mistake in my CORP for Mikan.

He vaults up significantly, but not quite over D Rob, KD, West, Oscar.

If you give credit for those early seasons of the BAA, he might even have a case for ~15.

[One_and_Done]

D.Rob was a GOAT level defensive player who could lead the league in scoring. He could floor raise a 21 win lotto team into a 56 win contender, with an 11 point SRS turnaround. He wasn't quite as good in the playoffs, but at #14 who cares? If you're taking Dirk over him I get it, but these other guys wouldn't be anything special in today's league whereas D.Rob would be even better. There might not have been a player in NBA history who has the unique combination of dexterity, agility, size, strength and overall athleticism that D.Rob had. Imagine if KG was bigger, stronger and better on offense. D.Rob is that player. KG was voted in at #9. It's well overdue to put D.Rob in. We just voted Kobe of all people over him.

[lessthanjake]

So, just to share some thoughts on the Nomination vote:

I'll probably be siding with Karl Malone with my 1st vote.
My 2nd vote will probably go to either Julius Erving or Kevin Durant.
Moses Malone, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade & Chris Paul are also on my mind.

Particularly looking for more thoughts on Erving & Durant with respect to each other and other guys.

On Erving, I’m honestly pretty scared away by the Sixers plus/minus data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZxRM9p2dFil5w6s21VEB4HnQZJymEY8_2vej-jREuUo/edit#gid=631667261).

Erving’s on-off for his entire NBA career was, in chronological order: +6.0, +0.6, -0.1, +3.0, -6.7, +10.0, +10.3, +4.4, -3.2, +4.6, -3.8.

There’s a couple solid numbers in there, but it’s overall pretty unimpressive. And I’ll note that in the season with that highest number (i.e. +10.3, in 1982-83), Erving only had the 4th highest on-off on the team, so it’s not really all that impressive in context. It’s hard for me to get to a place where I’d vote highly for someone with that sort of plus/minus data.

[trex_8063]

How much is an MJ-sized CP3 worth?

An MJ-sized CP3 with lesser defensive hands/instincts and questionable 3pt shooting (not saying Oscar couldn't/wouldn't have 3pt range, but it's an unknown, whereas it's not with CP3). +/- lesser turnover economy (CP3's is GOAT-tier); again a bit of an unknown.

There are aspects that bring this closer to parity, even after consideration of Oscar's 5 extra inches.

[70sFan]

I think it's important to emphasize that Mikan continued leading a dynasty with the widened key...as well as that his scoring was hurt by it. He went from being a dominant TS Add guy to merely be a net positive one.

Of course, it affected him big time - after all, it was the rule introduced strictly against his dominance. It didn't turn him into anything lower than the best player in the league though.

He was still the best player in the league but he was putting up worse RS numbers than peak Robinson with nowhere near the defensive dominance. When the difference in competition is so vast and you have to ask questions like “how do you weight the regular season vs. postseason” or “how do you value offense vs. defense” to decide who was more dominant in era (after the basic rule change of a 12 foot key) to decide who was better, then it’s a slam dunk.

By worse RS numbers you mean PER that it calculated differently for either player?

How do you know that Mikan didn't have comparable defensive impact? Lakers defense was extremely dominant, way more than Spurs in fact.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

So, just to share some thoughts on the Nomination vote:

I'll probably be siding with Karl Malone with my 1st vote.
My 2nd vote will probably go to either Julius Erving or Kevin Durant.
Moses Malone, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade & Chris Paul are also on my mind.

Particularly looking for more thoughts on Erving & Durant with respect to each other and other guys.

Honestly, it's not too easy to make an argument against KD based on the numbers - he's got crazy offensive efficiency(+7.4 career average rTS) on high volume, two rings, three finals appearances...I just don't like the way he's conducted his career, the GS decision will never not leave a bad taste in my mouth, and like I said in an earlier post, I am conservative about letting active players in this soon.

I nominated Dr. J based on his sterling resume(I know we are not supposed to consider importance to the history of the sport or influence on the sport, but it's hard not to with someone like him), but looking deeper at his numbers, it's not overwhelmingly impressive. He does have some eye-popping box impact numbers in his ABA years, but I'm thinking there's some kind of inflation going on there...he went from .321 WS/48 and 13.6 BPM in the 76 ABA playoffs to .215 WS/48 and 7.4 BPM in the 77 NBA playoffs. His peak ABA years are really hard to get my head around. But his career average rTS is +2.9, well below Durant's.

Durant's weakness is his defense. Doc's D-RAPTOR and D-PIPM are much better. Here are the career averages for some of the nominees being discussed:

D-PIPM
CP3: +0.92
Dr. J +0.9
K.Malone +0.63
Barkley +0.39
Durant -0.04
M.Malone -0.18

RS D-RAPTOR
Dr. J: +1.71
CP3: +1.56
K.Malone: +0.92
Barkley: +0.85
Durant: +0.05
M.Malone: -0.11

PO D-RAPTOR
Dr. J: +1.46
Barkley: +1.42
K.Malone: +0.96
CP3: +0.84
M.Malone: +0.72
Durant: +0.18

Doc is at or near the top on all of these while KD is at or near the bottom. Though it is important to note that PIPM and RAPTOR only exist for Dr. J's NBA years, so his ABA years are not part of the numbers above.

As for Karl Malone, I just feel like his longevity is going to be used to vote him in over guys who had higher peaks(I believe Barkley is one of them, KD and Doc might both be others). I think the Mailman is leading the nomination vote currently, but I am not so sure it should be him just yet.

[iggymcfrack]

Of course, it affected him big time - after all, it was the rule introduced strictly against his dominance. It didn't turn him into anything lower than the best player in the league though.

He was still the best player in the league but he was putting up worse RS numbers than peak Robinson with nowhere near the defensive dominance. When the difference in competition is so vast and you have to ask questions like “how do you weight the regular season vs. postseason” or “how do you value offense vs. defense” to decide who was more dominant in era (after the basic rule change of a 12 foot key) to decide who was better, then it’s a slam dunk.

By worse RS numbers you mean PER that it calculated differently for either player?

How do you know that Mikan didn't have comparable defensive impact? Lakers defense was extremely dominant, way more than Spurs in fact.

I mean, it’s not like he was trying to fulfill a typical modern rim protecting role. The film I was watching the other day of the ‘54 Finals, it didn’t seem like he was active at all. Wasn’t he basically just waiting for rebounds at the expense of contesting shots?

[70sFan]

He was still the best player in the league but he was putting up worse RS numbers than peak Robinson with nowhere near the defensive dominance. When the difference in competition is so vast and you have to ask questions like “how do you weight the regular season vs. postseason” or “how do you value offense vs. defense” to decide who was more dominant in era (after the basic rule change of a 12 foot key) to decide who was better, then it’s a slam dunk.

By worse RS numbers you mean PER that it calculated differently for either player?

How do you know that Mikan didn't have comparable defensive impact? Lakers defense was extremely dominant, way more than Spurs in fact.

I mean, it’s not like he was trying to fulfill a typical modern rim protecting role. The film I was watching the other day of the ‘54 Finals, it didn’t seem like he was active at all. Wasn’t he basically just waiting for rebounds at the expense of contesting shots?

Mikan didn't play like a modern rim protector, I also wouldn't say he just waited for rebounds either.

Here is a big portion of the game from period when Mikan was a bit younger and closer to his peak:

Watch on YouTube

He also faced legitimate competition at center that time.

[Owly]

Where I struggle most for Robertson v West is while Robertson is more efficient (+1.2% rTS% compared to West), West shot more (+2.6 estimated FGA/75 possessions). Robertson, similar to Magic Johnson, shot very nearly volume-wise like a league average player. whereas West was taking the load of the offense even with Elgin on the team with him. I can see either West > Oscar or West = Oscar in regards to scoring.

Only one measure but I think I covered in a previous thread that Oscar has the top TS add season, then 2 West seasons then Robertson has 4th-11th and through that amasses a substantial career TS add lead. Part of that is staying on the court, only one measure but still ...

Also with regard to "taking the load ... even with Elgin", my understanding is the Royals offenses were better. Taking the load isn't a virtue in and of itself, rather the goal is an efficient offense.

[Owly]

So, just to share some thoughts on the Nomination vote:

I'll probably be siding with Karl Malone with my 1st vote.
My 2nd vote will probably go to either Julius Erving or Kevin Durant.
Moses Malone, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade & Chris Paul are also on my mind.

Particularly looking for more thoughts on Erving & Durant with respect to each other and other guys.

On Erving, I’m honestly pretty scared away by the Sixers plus/minus data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZxRM9p2dFil5w6s21VEB4HnQZJymEY8_2vej-jREuUo/edit#gid=631667261).

Erving’s on-off for his entire NBA career was, in chronological order: +6.0, +0.6, -0.1, +3.0, -6.7, +10.0, +10.3, +4.4, -3.2, +4.6, -3.8.

There’s a couple solid numbers in there, but it’s overall pretty unimpressive. And I’ll note that in the season with that highest number (i.e. +10.3, in 1982-83), Erving only had the 4th highest on-off on the team, so it’s not really all that impressive in context. It’s hard for me to get to a place where I’d vote highly for someone with that sort of plus/minus data.

Not got time to go into detail.
Obviously I think the ABA does some heavy lifting.

But yes I'm somewhat surprised that the credit for those 76ers teams and the relative all-time movement hasn't shifted more significantly. It's on a good team and he's generally helping, but maybe not driving them, typically not leading that stat iirc. I think it moved him down significantly for me. I would guess that in the impact data era where we look at this stuff more often, see it sooner in terms of forming opinions ... it might be harder to survive those numbers in this tier. But that's just my opinion.

[OhayoKD]

'94: 1st in league [by silly margin: +1.5 over 2nd place (K.Malone)]
'95: 1st in league [by even sillier margin: +2.8 over 2nd place (S.Pippen)]
'96: 1st in league [+0.2 over returned Michael Jordan]
**Honestly, I think you could make an argument that David Robinson, peri-peak, was the regular season GOAT.

Hmm. I don't know if that would be a particularly strong case. Credit where it's due for arguably ruling the league for three-years(in the regular season) including over what might be(in an impact sense) peak Jordan but IIRC Kareem in an off-year(1975) comes pretty close to Robinson's best sample, Lebron's 2009/2010 probably just outright clears, and depending on how strictly you are applying "corp" Russell might be outright unassailable in the years every other team is +2. Similar concept can be applied for 67 Wilt.

I also think Giannis, Walton, Shaq, Steph, Duncan, and KG could all have decent cases depending on approach/time frame(1-year, 2-year, 3-year?)

I think you could make a solid case for Robinson as one of the best regular-season peaks ever, but the best feels like a bit of a uphill climb.

[Gibson22]

Whats the votecount?

[One_and_Done]

Alot of people haven't voted. Coincidentally we just voted Kobe in.

[70sFan]

Alot of people haven't voted. Coincidentally we just voted Kobe in.

Do you have some kind of obsession about Kobe?

[penbeast0]

I am absolutely intrigued by the notion that Oscar was conceivably a better shooter than West. He basically looks like a Nash/Wade hybrid, then.

Wonder if I've been way too low on him.

Speaking of Wade...when do you all think it makes sense to start talking about him?

Not really seeing the hybrid.

Oscar liked to play slow, Nash like to play fast.
Oscar was a bully of a scorer. Nash a "midget" in his own words.
Oscar was nowhere near the FT shooter as Nash, and certainly wasn't shooting from range the same way.

Dwayne Wade is known for being basically the same height as West, having the same longer arms as West, and playing defense as a steal/block disruptor like West.

Re: Time to talk Wade? Reasonable to bring him up. Nash & Paul as well.

imo, Chris Paul is a much closer analogy to Oscar: both like to play slow, both are methodical/careful with the ball, both are thickly built and difficult to abuse in the post, and both absolutely kill it in the mid-range.

And it's more than reasonable to bring up Chris Paul at this point. Not sure why we should believe there's a large separation between Oscar and Paul in an all-time sense.

Not sure where the Oscar is a better shooter than West comes from, West had more range and variety, more of a shooter/slasher. Oscar may have been a better scorer than West but his shots tended to be more short midrange rather than long and West did have a better foul draw.

Paul is a good comp for Oscar in terms of playstyle and apparently personality (if Paul were 6'6, rarely injured, looked for his own shot more, was less aggressive on defense, and didn't have that GOAT ability to avoid turnovers). West is more Curry without a 3 point line (and better finishing).

[Gibson22]

Vote: West
Alternate: Robertson
Quick post, sorry. Dirk and DROB can be taken into consideration after these 2, they are imo the 2 in the mix with my 2 nominations, then I'd have kd. Mikan was obviously the most dominant player out of the bunch but i have him around #20 for longevity and era difficulty. As I said west and robertson I think are top 12 players at worst. As far as picking one above the other I'm just not sure. Robertson was a way better playmaker and had better scoring percentages, west had way better defense. I tend to think that west's michael jordan, kobe bryant type of game is more conductive to winning and playoff resilient. It could honestly just be a preference vote, I'm not sure.

Nomination: Erving
Alternate: Malone

[AEnigma]

So, just to share some thoughts on the Nomination vote:

I'll probably be siding with Karl Malone with my 1st vote.
My 2nd vote will probably go to either Julius Erving or Kevin Durant.
Moses Malone, Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade & Chris Paul are also on my mind.

Particularly looking for more thoughts on Erving & Durant with respect to each other and other guys.

I nominated Dr. J based on his sterling resume(I know we are not supposed to consider importance to the history of the sport or influence on the sport, but it's hard not to with someone like him), but looking deeper at his numbers, it's not overwhelmingly impressive. He does have some eye-popping box impact numbers in his ABA years, but I'm thinking there's some kind of inflation going on there...he went from .321 WS/48 and 13.6 BPM in the 76 ABA playoffs to .215 WS/48 and 7.4 BPM in the 77 NBA playoffs. His peak ABA years are really hard to get my head around.

Will point out those 1976 averages were against two teams which mostly carried over into the NBA and immediately made the playoffs, and those 1977 averages were against including the defending champions and the would-be champions, both of whom had been top five defences when their starting centres played.

The on/off numbers for Erving are uninspiring, but I am not too compelled by them without anything more comparative or without anything more specific to the postseason. Doc expressed some surprise that Erving fared notably better in Moonbeam’s R-WOWY than Gervin did, and it is entirely possible that more complete data would be similarly underwhelming for other superstar scorers of the time. To me, it reflects well on Erving in contrast to see high-peak guys like David Thompson and Walter Davis and Marques Johnson derail their careers, and Bernard King… having his history… Even Gervin seems to have ended up affected by off-court distractions, but to my knowledge, Erving mostly stayed above that. I say that not to proselytise (I only really care in an off-court sense about King), but to simply comment that one provided a long career of basketball value to his teams while most of the other spectacular wings burned out or cost themselves full engagement in the sport.

As for Karl Malone, I just feel like his longevity is going to be used to vote him in over guys who had higher peaks(I believe Barkley is one of them, KD and Doc might both be others). I think the Mailman is leading the nomination vote currently, but I am not so sure it should be him just yet.

I take Malone’s peak over Barkley’s, but that aside, I feel like unless you see a gulf in their respective peaks, longevity should be a massive advantage for Malone, yes. I would feel a lot more confident that I could win a title with a full career of Malone, even if the mildly lesser peak (still top ~thirty imo) removes the likelihood of a 2011 Dirk run.