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Post Mortem 2023-24

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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#161 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Jun 9, 2024 10:07 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Jtbc, if Allen and Mitchell had managed to stay healthy, do you have the chances that we get by the Celtics at zero? I sure don't. I think there's an even money chance we take that series and are in the Finals right now. It's hardly delusional to hope we're healthier next run.
If you're of that belief that the Cavs were 2 or 3 injuries away from being a top 2 team this season, how are you arguing against going into the tax this upcoming season?

Your mindset should be to extend Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen.

Your mindset should be to sign and trade Okoro and take back whatever contract value that fetches.

Your mindset should be to spend the entire MLE this summer, something the Cavs rarely do.

Your mindset should be to hope a new coach can fix Niang because 2nds alone aren't gonna dump him, so be prepared to be paying your 11th guy $8.5 million.

Your mindset should not only be to retain #20 but actually move up in the draft if there's a guy there they like.

Your mindset should be to match any offer sheet Bates gets.

Like you can't be a top 2 team (your opinion) or a top 4 team (Koby's opinion) and be trying to dodge the tax. Either you actually are a contender or you're a pretender. If these opinions are to be believed, then ya spend the money to secure the Larry O'Brien.


I have no objection to going into the tax for the right player. I even gave an example of a trade I'd make that would do that. That said, the first and second aprons come with real teeth now before even worrying about the repeater tax. You need to be smart and opportunistic when it comes to adding salary once your over the cap. Otherwise, you end in a situation like the Warriors, Bucks, Denver, Clippers, Suns, etc. with locked rosters because its practically impossible to execute a trade.

If there's a good S&T option for Okoro, I'm all for it, but if his RFA market likely tops out at just over the MLE, what do you think the other team is giving up for him? Assuming the Cavs can use the full MLE, which you can't do if you're over the tax, who are you using it on? I don't want another Niang signing where we're just looking to dump him a year later because he can't stay on the floor during the playoffs.
The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#162 » by toooskies » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:08 am

JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:If you're of that belief that the Cavs were 2 or 3 injuries away from being a top 2 team this season, how are you arguing against going into the tax this upcoming season?

Your mindset should be to extend Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen.

Your mindset should be to sign and trade Okoro and take back whatever contract value that fetches.

Your mindset should be to spend the entire MLE this summer, something the Cavs rarely do.

Your mindset should be to hope a new coach can fix Niang because 2nds alone aren't gonna dump him, so be prepared to be paying your 11th guy $8.5 million.

Your mindset should not only be to retain #20 but actually move up in the draft if there's a guy there they like.

Your mindset should be to match any offer sheet Bates gets.

Like you can't be a top 2 team (your opinion) or a top 4 team (Koby's opinion) and be trying to dodge the tax. Either you actually are a contender or you're a pretender. If these opinions are to be believed, then ya spend the money to secure the Larry O'Brien.


I have no objection to going into the tax for the right player. I even gave an example of a trade I'd make that would do that. That said, the first and second aprons come with real teeth now before even worrying about the repeater tax. You need to be smart and opportunistic when it comes to adding salary once your over the cap. Otherwise, you end in a situation like the Warriors, Bucks, Denver, Clippers, Suns, etc. with locked rosters because its practically impossible to execute a trade.

If there's a good S&T option for Okoro, I'm all for it, but if his RFA market likely tops out at just over the MLE, what do you think the other team is giving up for him? Assuming the Cavs can use the full MLE, which you can't do if you're over the tax, who are you using it on? I don't want another Niang signing where we're just looking to dump him a year later because he can't stay on the floor during the playoffs.
The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.

Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#163 » by jbk1234 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:21 am

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
I have no objection to going into the tax for the right player. I even gave an example of a trade I'd make that would do that. That said, the first and second aprons come with real teeth now before even worrying about the repeater tax. You need to be smart and opportunistic when it comes to adding salary once your over the cap. Otherwise, you end in a situation like the Warriors, Bucks, Denver, Clippers, Suns, etc. with locked rosters because its practically impossible to execute a trade.

If there's a good S&T option for Okoro, I'm all for it, but if his RFA market likely tops out at just over the MLE, what do you think the other team is giving up for him? Assuming the Cavs can use the full MLE, which you can't do if you're over the tax, who are you using it on? I don't want another Niang signing where we're just looking to dump him a year later because he can't stay on the floor during the playoffs.
The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.

Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.


Or, just trade Niang.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#164 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:44 am

jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.

Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.


Or, just trade Niang.
For what? No team is just taking him on for the fun of it. He's a reclamation project at this point.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#165 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:46 am

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
I have no objection to going into the tax for the right player. I even gave an example of a trade I'd make that would do that. That said, the first and second aprons come with real teeth now before even worrying about the repeater tax. You need to be smart and opportunistic when it comes to adding salary once your over the cap. Otherwise, you end in a situation like the Warriors, Bucks, Denver, Clippers, Suns, etc. with locked rosters because its practically impossible to execute a trade.

If there's a good S&T option for Okoro, I'm all for it, but if his RFA market likely tops out at just over the MLE, what do you think the other team is giving up for him? Assuming the Cavs can use the full MLE, which you can't do if you're over the tax, who are you using it on? I don't want another Niang signing where we're just looking to dump him a year later because he can't stay on the floor during the playoffs.
The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.

Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.
Meh, not really though because the only way they let Okoro walk for nothing is if he signs some massive offer sheet.

I would prefer to sign and trade him but obviously requires the new team to agree, as well as his reps to assist. Either way, if he is traded, salary will be coming back.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#166 » by toooskies » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:20 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:The current estimated tax line is $171,315,000. That is not taking into account the 1st or 2nd apron, which will obviously be higher.

Anyways, if we look at what is allocated currently.

We have about $152 million in guaranteed money between 9 guys.

Add in Rubio's dead money, CPJ and Merrill and we're already at $157 million for 11 guys.

This is before we talk about #20, Okoro's RFA, Bates RFA, and the MLE.

Even if Okoro just plays on his QO the Cavs are at $170 million... Their 2024 1st round pick puts them over the estimated tax line.

Avoiding the tax this coming season is not something that should be high on the Cavs priority list given everything else they need to handle this summer.

Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.
Meh, not really though because the only way they let Okoro walk for nothing is if he signs some massive offer sheet.

I would prefer to sign and trade him but obviously requires the new team to agree, as well as his reps to assist. Either way, if he is traded, salary will be coming back.

Signing some other UFA to an MLE deal is effectively trading Okoro for that player is sort of the point. If we bring back Okoro on the QO or more (or even a little less), we won't have the NTMLE available. Final numbers and the roster spots we fill will determine whether we even have the TMLE.

Is there anybody that we like that brings the value Okoro brings, possibly in a slightly cheaper package, on the free agency market? List of possible names:

Royce O'Neale
Gordon Hayward
DJJ
Naji Marshall
Kyle Anderson
Jalen Smith
De'Anthony Melton? (possibly too expensive)

That's my early list, if we bring everybody back without major financial shifts. On that list Jalen Smith could be the guy that solidifies our backup big spot while we can bring in somebody like Ryan Dunn in the draft to defend and try to teach him to hit a corner 3. Outside of Smith I'm not sure I'd rather have any of those guys over Okoro.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#167 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:28 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I don't think it, that 100% was an all in move.

I think they should break up the core 4, as soon as this month.

But Koby disagrees. So if he's not breaking up the core, then what you described is be a treadmill team until it is clear and obvious you're not.

If you're not breaking up the core 4 and not making trades, what is gonna tip this core to contending?

The aim is already to go to the ECF as a minimum.

I think our PoBo is misguided but his actions show that winning is the only logical next step. They can't bide anymore time once they extend Mitchell, Mobley, and potetinally Allen. Heck, they may even match an offer sheet for Okoro.


I'm sure you haven't forgotten the Cavs had to lose a game on purpose just to barely get out of the first round.

So, even if the Cavs shuffle their core 4, the new players and new coach still need to prove themselves. If the right trade required them to go in to the tax, they'd have to consider it; but do you really think overpaying Isaac Okoro should be the trigger?

That is what we're talking about here.


I disagree with the premise that the Cavs lost on purpose, that they needed to lose on purpose to make it out of the first round, and that Okoro is the right victim here when you could probably offload Niang trivially.


We overpayed Niang, I wouldn't have my hopes up that we could offload him without attaching assets, and that still only free's up $8.8M. Strus, otoh, maybe we could find a team to take his salary off our hands.

But yes, whether Isaac becomes the trigger that throws us in to the luxury tax does depend on how we manage the roster. My point was just that he shouldn't be the trigger. Neither should Emoni for that matter or any of our various 2-way players or draft & stashes me may want to be able to offer a roster spot and contract to.

Sure, maybe the Cavs didn't *need* to tank that game. As it turns out other teams were weakened from injuries too, but we did and still barely got past our cherry picked opponent. There are nuances and other facts we can throw around about what happened, but that still doesn't prove we're ready to take the step to becoming one of the top contenders and Dan Gilbert never promised to throw away his money.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#168 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:32 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.
Meh, not really though because the only way they let Okoro walk for nothing is if he signs some massive offer sheet.

I would prefer to sign and trade him but obviously requires the new team to agree, as well as his reps to assist. Either way, if he is traded, salary will be coming back.

Signing some other UFA to an MLE deal is effectively trading Okoro for that player is sort of the point. If we bring back Okoro on the QO or more (or even a little less), we won't have the NTMLE available. Final numbers and the roster spots we fill will determine whether we even have the TMLE.

Is there anybody that we like that brings the value Okoro brings, possibly in a slightly cheaper package, on the free agency market? List of possible names:

Royce O'Neale
Gordon Hayward
DJJ
Naji Marshall
Kyle Anderson
Jalen Smith
De'Anthony Melton? (possibly too expensive)

That's my early list, if we bring everybody back without major financial shifts. On that list Jalen Smith could be the guy that solidifies our backup big spot while we can bring in somebody like Ryan Dunn in the draft to defend and try to teach him to hit a corner 3. Outside of Smith I'm not sure I'd rather have any of those guys over Okoro.
I understand the theory on it, I'm just saying the Cavs won't let Okoro walk for nothing. He at minimum plays on the QO next season, like they were willing to do with Sexton.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#169 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:34 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Well, if you want to know what a smartly managed team would do, ask yourself what would the Guardians do?

They'd keep developing the team, building continuity, adding talent, taking their lumps, making trades and then if and when things are obviously clicking and they think they may have a chance to make a deep run they go all in (or at least as much as Dolan can afford).

I mean be honest. While you feel the Cavs made an all-in move when they traded for Mitchell, what would encourage you to think they are ready to contend next year? We can hope for good health, that the new coach comes in and turns things quickly around or Koby makes a flurry of wildly successful trades, but let's see?
I don't think it, that 100% was an all in move.

I think they should break up the core 4, as soon as this month.

But Koby disagrees. So if he's not breaking up the core, then what you described is be a treadmill team until it is clear and obvious you're not.

If you're not breaking up the core 4 and not making trades, what is gonna tip this core to contending?

The aim is already to go to the ECF as a minimum.

I think our PoBo is misguided but his actions show that winning is the only logical next step. They can't bide anymore time once they extend Mitchell, Mobley, and potetinally Allen. Heck, they may even match an offer sheet for Okoro.


Jtbc, if Allen and Mitchell had managed to stay healthy, do you have the chances that we get by the Celtics at zero? I sure don't. I think there's an even money chance we take that series and are in the Finals right now. It's hardly delusional to hope we're healthier next run.


This is the difference between being able to prove something and being able to hope something. 3 years straight injuries have hamstrung us in the playoffs. Let's figure out how to make it in to the playoffs healthy and then we can start talking about the true upside of this team.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#170 » by toooskies » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:36 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
I'm sure you haven't forgotten the Cavs had to lose a game on purpose just to barely get out of the first round.

So, even if the Cavs shuffle their core 4, the new players and new coach still need to prove themselves. If the right trade required them to go in to the tax, they'd have to consider it; but do you really think overpaying Isaac Okoro should be the trigger?

That is what we're talking about here.


I disagree with the premise that the Cavs lost on purpose, that they needed to lose on purpose to make it out of the first round, and that Okoro is the right victim here when you could probably offload Niang trivially.


We overpayed Niang, I wouldn't have my hopes up that we could offload him without attaching assets, and that still only free's up $8.8M. Strus, otoh, maybe we could find a team to take his salary off our hands.

But yes, whether Isaac becomes the trigger that throws us in to the luxury tax does depend on how we manage the roster. My point was just that he shouldn't be the trigger. Neither should Emoni for that matter or any of our various 2-way players or draft & stashes me may want to be able to offer a roster spot and contract to.

Sure, maybe the Cavs didn't *need* to tank that game. As it turns out other teams were weakened from injuries too, but we did and still barely got past our cherry picked opponent. There are nuances and other facts we can throw around about what happened, but that still doesn't prove we're ready to take the step to becoming one of the top contenders and Dan Gilbert never promised to throw away his money.

If staying out of the tax is a priority then you absolutely attach 2nds to move Niang. While his contract is an overpay, it isn't worthless to a team like Detroit that could use shooting and a locker room guy.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#171 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:39 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I don't think it, that 100% was an all in move.

I think they should break up the core 4, as soon as this month.

But Koby disagrees. So if he's not breaking up the core, then what you described is be a treadmill team until it is clear and obvious you're not.

If you're not breaking up the core 4 and not making trades, what is gonna tip this core to contending?

The aim is already to go to the ECF as a minimum.

I think our PoBo is misguided but his actions show that winning is the only logical next step. They can't bide anymore time once they extend Mitchell, Mobley, and potetinally Allen. Heck, they may even match an offer sheet for Okoro.


I'm sure you haven't forgotten the Cavs had to lose a game on purpose just to barely get out of the first round.

So, even if the Cavs shuffle their core 4, the new players and new coach still need to prove themselves. If the right trade required them to go in to the tax, they'd have to consider it; but do you really think overpaying Isaac Okoro should be the trigger?

That is what we're talking about here.
Jon, we're on the same side. I do not believe this core is a title contender either.

But I'm saying the guy who matters or at least 1 of the 2 guys who matter, believes this team's floor is a top 4 team in the NBA.

A team aiming for the top 4 as their floor has to be considered a title contender weather it is a fallacy or not.

With that perspective in mind then i do not believe the Cavs should fear the tax line like they did last season. If they're aspiring to be top 4 in the NBA, spend like a top 4 in the NBA team.


Clearly the Cavs do not fear the tax line, but they still have to manage it. When they enter it, how long they're in it for, when they need to reset the repeater tax, etc. Do you not remember when they let Delly sign with the Bucks? They didn't want to lose him, but they picked Shumpert over Delly or paying upwards of $50M a year in tax just to keep both of them.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#172 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:50 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
I disagree with the premise that the Cavs lost on purpose, that they needed to lose on purpose to make it out of the first round, and that Okoro is the right victim here when you could probably offload Niang trivially.


We overpayed Niang, I wouldn't have my hopes up that we could offload him without attaching assets, and that still only free's up $8.8M. Strus, otoh, maybe we could find a team to take his salary off our hands.

But yes, whether Isaac becomes the trigger that throws us in to the luxury tax does depend on how we manage the roster. My point was just that he shouldn't be the trigger. Neither should Emoni for that matter or any of our various 2-way players or draft & stashes me may want to be able to offer a roster spot and contract to.

Sure, maybe the Cavs didn't *need* to tank that game. As it turns out other teams were weakened from injuries too, but we did and still barely got past our cherry picked opponent. There are nuances and other facts we can throw around about what happened, but that still doesn't prove we're ready to take the step to becoming one of the top contenders and Dan Gilbert never promised to throw away his money.


If staying out of the tax is a priority then you absolutely attach 2nds to move Niang. While his contract is an overpay, it isn't worthless to a team like Detroit that could use shooting and a locker room guy.


We need shooting too and don't forget Niang's presence of the roster is linked with Mitchell's.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#173 » by jbk1234 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:52 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:Outside of COVID the projected numbers were always low compared to the final number. But yes, if there's a guy in the Niang-level price range that the Cavs can get that they like as much as Okoro, that's at least an option to stay under the tax.


Or, just trade Niang.
For what? No team is just taking him on for the fun of it. He's a reclamation project at this point.


He's playable off the bench in the regular season. A lotto team could use his spacing while attempting to develop their guards. If you attach a second or two to him, as free agency is winding down, he's movable.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#174 » by toooskies » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:35 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I don't think it, that 100% was an all in move.

I think they should break up the core 4, as soon as this month.

But Koby disagrees. So if he's not breaking up the core, then what you described is be a treadmill team until it is clear and obvious you're not.

If you're not breaking up the core 4 and not making trades, what is gonna tip this core to contending?

The aim is already to go to the ECF as a minimum.

I think our PoBo is misguided but his actions show that winning is the only logical next step. They can't bide anymore time once they extend Mitchell, Mobley, and potetinally Allen. Heck, they may even match an offer sheet for Okoro.


Jtbc, if Allen and Mitchell had managed to stay healthy, do you have the chances that we get by the Celtics at zero? I sure don't. I think there's an even money chance we take that series and are in the Finals right now. It's hardly delusional to hope we're healthier next run.


This is the difference between being able to prove something and being able to hope something. 3 years straight injuries have hamstrung us in the playoffs. Let's figure out how to make it in to the playoffs healthy and then we can start talking about the true upside of this team.

It's a fun catch-22 where you may not want to be in the tax until you're a contender, but you also can't get the depth of veteran players to be a contender until you go into the tax.

So many teams were hit with major injury issues in the playoffs, and arguably our two most important injuries (Allen's rib, Mitchell's calf) happened IN the playoffs. Health luck sunk all of the Bucks, Knicks, Cavs, Pacers, Sixers, Heat in the East this year.

There is no "proving" you are a contender. Contender is a made-up term. You win or you don't. Just like everyone thought Milwaukee has been a contender but wasn't, and how Embiid should make Philly a contender but hasn't made it out of the second round. How Miami is perpetually a contender but also could lose in the play-in.

We were two wins away from the #2 seed in the East despite those injuries. We might've played the single best game against the Celtics that anyone will play this postseason. We played Boston reasonably tightly in games 4 and 5 despite missing Mitchell and Allen AND shooting poorly as a team.

It's reasonable to believe that we're a few steps from being a top team. One step is the natural maturity of playing in twelve playoff games. One step is a coaching change which may improve team shooting. Another step might be adjusting fit through trade. Another step might be going into the tax to maintain current depth while assuming one or two of CPJ, Bates, IMobley, Nance, Travers, and/or Diop can be depth pieces going forward.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#175 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:38 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
I disagree with the premise that the Cavs lost on purpose, that they needed to lose on purpose to make it out of the first round, and that Okoro is the right victim here when you could probably offload Niang trivially.


We overpayed Niang, I wouldn't have my hopes up that we could offload him without attaching assets, and that still only free's up $8.8M. Strus, otoh, maybe we could find a team to take his salary off our hands.

But yes, whether Isaac becomes the trigger that throws us in to the luxury tax does depend on how we manage the roster. My point was just that he shouldn't be the trigger. Neither should Emoni for that matter or any of our various 2-way players or draft & stashes me may want to be able to offer a roster spot and contract to.

Sure, maybe the Cavs didn't *need* to tank that game. As it turns out other teams were weakened from injuries too, but we did and still barely got past our cherry picked opponent. There are nuances and other facts we can throw around about what happened, but that still doesn't prove we're ready to take the step to becoming one of the top contenders and Dan Gilbert never promised to throw away his money.

If staying out of the tax is a priority then you absolutely attach 2nds to move Niang. While his contract is an overpay, it isn't worthless to a team like Detroit that could use shooting and a locker room guy.
Troy Weaver is no longer in DET so the days of just dumping players to them is probably gone.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#176 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:08 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Jtbc, if Allen and Mitchell had managed to stay healthy, do you have the chances that we get by the Celtics at zero? I sure don't. I think there's an even money chance we take that series and are in the Finals right now. It's hardly delusional to hope we're healthier next run.


This is the difference between being able to prove something and being able to hope something. 3 years straight injuries have hamstrung us in the playoffs. Let's figure out how to make it in to the playoffs healthy and then we can start talking about the true upside of this team.

It's a fun catch-22 where you may not want to be in the tax until you're a contender, but you also can't get the depth of veteran players to be a contender until you go into the tax.

So many teams were hit with major injury issues in the playoffs, and arguably our two most important injuries (Allen's rib, Mitchell's calf) happened IN the playoffs. Health luck sunk all of the Bucks, Knicks, Cavs, Pacers, Sixers, Heat in the East this year.

There is no "proving" you are a contender. Contender is a made-up term. You win or you don't. Just like everyone thought Milwaukee has been a contender but wasn't, and how Embiid should make Philly a contender but hasn't made it out of the second round. How Miami is perpetually a contender but also could lose in the play-in.

We were two wins away from the #2 seed in the East despite those injuries. We might've played the single best game against the Celtics that anyone will play this postseason. We played Boston reasonably tightly in games 4 and 5 despite missing Mitchell and Allen AND shooting poorly as a team.

It's reasonable to believe that we're a few steps from being a top team. One step is the natural maturity of playing in twelve playoff games. One step is a coaching change which may improve team shooting. Another step might be adjusting fit through trade. Another step might be going into the tax to maintain current depth while assuming one or two of CPJ, Bates, IMobley, Nance, Travers, and/or Diop can be depth pieces going forward.


The difference is Milwaukee and Miami did win, and Philly at least showed the potential to. They just all got wiped out by injuries.

We got wiped out by injuries too, but we didn't prove anything first other than that we could barely beat a younger less experienced Orlando team.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#177 » by toooskies » Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:12 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
This is the difference between being able to prove something and being able to hope something. 3 years straight injuries have hamstrung us in the playoffs. Let's figure out how to make it in to the playoffs healthy and then we can start talking about the true upside of this team.

It's a fun catch-22 where you may not want to be in the tax until you're a contender, but you also can't get the depth of veteran players to be a contender until you go into the tax.

So many teams were hit with major injury issues in the playoffs, and arguably our two most important injuries (Allen's rib, Mitchell's calf) happened IN the playoffs. Health luck sunk all of the Bucks, Knicks, Cavs, Pacers, Sixers, Heat in the East this year.

There is no "proving" you are a contender. Contender is a made-up term. You win or you don't. Just like everyone thought Milwaukee has been a contender but wasn't, and how Embiid should make Philly a contender but hasn't made it out of the second round. How Miami is perpetually a contender but also could lose in the play-in.

We were two wins away from the #2 seed in the East despite those injuries. We might've played the single best game against the Celtics that anyone will play this postseason. We played Boston reasonably tightly in games 4 and 5 despite missing Mitchell and Allen AND shooting poorly as a team.

It's reasonable to believe that we're a few steps from being a top team. One step is the natural maturity of playing in twelve playoff games. One step is a coaching change which may improve team shooting. Another step might be adjusting fit through trade. Another step might be going into the tax to maintain current depth while assuming one or two of CPJ, Bates, IMobley, Nance, Travers, and/or Diop can be depth pieces going forward.


The difference is Milwaukee and Miami did win, and Philly at least showed the potential to. They just all got wiped out by injuries.

We got wiped out by injuries too, but we didn't prove anything first other than that we could barely beat a younger less experienced Orlando team.

Milwaukee lucked into the Nets getting hurt, otherwise they'd still be chasing a title. Miami doesn't have a title and they've shuffled enough pieces that they won't be the same team if they compete for a title again.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#178 » by JonFromVA » Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:04 am

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:It's a fun catch-22 where you may not want to be in the tax until you're a contender, but you also can't get the depth of veteran players to be a contender until you go into the tax.

So many teams were hit with major injury issues in the playoffs, and arguably our two most important injuries (Allen's rib, Mitchell's calf) happened IN the playoffs. Health luck sunk all of the Bucks, Knicks, Cavs, Pacers, Sixers, Heat in the East this year.

There is no "proving" you are a contender. Contender is a made-up term. You win or you don't. Just like everyone thought Milwaukee has been a contender but wasn't, and how Embiid should make Philly a contender but hasn't made it out of the second round. How Miami is perpetually a contender but also could lose in the play-in.

We were two wins away from the #2 seed in the East despite those injuries. We might've played the single best game against the Celtics that anyone will play this postseason. We played Boston reasonably tightly in games 4 and 5 despite missing Mitchell and Allen AND shooting poorly as a team.

It's reasonable to believe that we're a few steps from being a top team. One step is the natural maturity of playing in twelve playoff games. One step is a coaching change which may improve team shooting. Another step might be adjusting fit through trade. Another step might be going into the tax to maintain current depth while assuming one or two of CPJ, Bates, IMobley, Nance, Travers, and/or Diop can be depth pieces going forward.


The difference is Milwaukee and Miami did win, and Philly at least showed the potential to. They just all got wiped out by injuries.

We got wiped out by injuries too, but we didn't prove anything first other than that we could barely beat a younger less experienced Orlando team.

Milwaukee lucked into the Nets getting hurt, otherwise they'd still be chasing a title. Miami doesn't have a title and they've shuffled enough pieces that they won't be the same team if they compete for a title again.


Even if true, it still does not indicate it's time to start the luxury tax timer just so we don't have to fill out our bench with different cheaper players.
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#179 » by toooskies » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:39 am

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
The difference is Milwaukee and Miami did win, and Philly at least showed the potential to. They just all got wiped out by injuries.

We got wiped out by injuries too, but we didn't prove anything first other than that we could barely beat a younger less experienced Orlando team.

Milwaukee lucked into the Nets getting hurt, otherwise they'd still be chasing a title. Miami doesn't have a title and they've shuffled enough pieces that they won't be the same team if they compete for a title again.


Even if true, it still does not indicate it's time to start the luxury tax timer just so we don't have to fill out our bench with different cheaper players.

The question is if we think the different cheaper players will be significantly worse than what we think Okoro will be.

Which players do you think we should look at his off-season if we part ways with Okoro?
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Re: Post Mortem 2023-24 

Post#180 » by jbk1234 » Tue Jun 11, 2024 1:31 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:Milwaukee lucked into the Nets getting hurt, otherwise they'd still be chasing a title. Miami doesn't have a title and they've shuffled enough pieces that they won't be the same team if they compete for a title again.


Even if true, it still does not indicate it's time to start the luxury tax timer just so we don't have to fill out our bench with different cheaper players.

The question is if we think the different cheaper players will be significantly worse than what we think Okoro will be.

Which players do you think we should look at his off-season if we part ways with Okoro?


My concern with Okoro is more due to how his contract will age (if we just want to duck the tax, I'm moving Niang). Outside of our core 4, we don't have much in the way of assets. If you pay Okoro at the very the top of his market, you could get stuck with him. Worse yet, you could have to attach even more future draft capital in a trade.

Okoro is useful on a team with Mitchell and Garland given his ability to be a situational POA defender. However, if Garland ends up getting traded for a guy like Ingram, Okoro's minutes and role could get even further reduced. If Daniels is part of that trade, Okoro could struggle to get minutes. Part of me thinks that Okoro should sign the Q.O. if he doesn't get a solid offer in the first week. He's the rare player who might actually benefit from it.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.

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