Two main issues for me:
1. Swing Skills
When it comes to swing skills for star potential, VJ has a stronger base.
He’s shown flashes of shot creation off the dribble, even with basic handles. He’s got a quick first step, explosive athleticism, strong C&S 3pt%, solid FT%, and encouraging floater %. His HC rim freq is 2x higher than Tre’s.
He’s often compared to Melton or Zhaire, but context matters, he played a primary or secondary scoring role even alongside NBA guys like Ayton, Hield, and Gordon in Olympic qualifiers. That suggests more than just a 3&D profile. There are clear signs he can be above average in the key swing areas.
Tre, on the other hand, is starting from a much lower baseline. His HC rim freq, FT rate as an alpha, rebounding, and defense are all weak. Not 4s or 5s out of 10, more like 1s or 2s. He avoids contact, settles for jumpers, and doesn’t stand out on D or the boards. Yes, he’s an elite shooting prospect, but in other areas, even reaching average is a big leap.
With VJ, you can’t say he’s one of the worst creators in this class. With Tre, you can argue he’s near the bottom in HC rim pressure, FT drawing as an alpha, rebounding, and defense. VJ is clearly further along in the swing skills that usually separate role players from stars.
Adding to that, Pelton’s projection model, which adjusts for level of competition and includes performance pre-college, ranked Kneuppel and VJ very high. The reason? Their foundational skills showed clear signs even before the NCAA. For example, Kon showed strong indicators in the EYBL circuit. I’d assume it also factors Edgecombe role and #s in the olympic qualifiers. In contrast, the things we want to believe about Tre’s upside, like improvement as a rim attacker, being a foul merchant like most alpha perimeter scorers, decent rebounder or defender, are more projection than proof. It’s more imagined than real.
2. Projected role
If Tre’s going to be average at best on D and the glass, then he has to carry your offense as a clear #1. And that level isn’t Oladipo, it’s SGA, Steph, Jokic, Wembanyama, Embiid, Giannis, Luka, prime Harden, Ant. Top 1% of the league scorers.
That kind of leap is a lot to bet on, especially with a prospect like Tre or even Harper or VJ. I’d be more open to taking that swing if we were talking about Flagg. The distance Tre has to cover from where he is to being that guy is massive.
With VJ, the path to becoming a 20-25 PPG two-way guard is more grounded. The tools are there, he just needs refinement and reps.
Bottom line:
Tre’s ceiling depends on too many leaps in low-baseline areas. VJ’s case is built on traits that are already flashing at real levels of competition.
