Peak Bulls vs Peak Lakers?
Easily the Bulls. Firstly, and foremost, the main issue. Kobe is going to start a feud with Shaq. This will be a worse version of 04 (with the superteam of Karl Malone and Gary Payton added to this), and it won't work against Bulls. It's like another version of 04 Pistons except much better on both ends, clearly. 04 Lakers are worse. But if you need more explanation....
2. Peak Kobe would not be the same as 2000-01 Kobe on defense. This is a problem, because when you have lazy Shaq (not 2000 where he was fringe elite on defense) allowing Dikembe Mutombo to cook relative to RS offensively... we'll need a perimeter defender to guard 1995-96 Jordan (better than any version of Kobe).
Mutombo RS: 10/13.5/1 with 1.9 turnovers and 54.7 TS%
Mutombo vs Shaq playoffs: 16.8/12.2/0.4 with 1 turnover and 63.2 TS%
And lazy Shaq is unstoppable on defense
. Without an anchor, the Lakers are destroyed offensively.
Now imagine, a much worse Kobe paired with a lazy Shaq defensively
. This would be in the top 10 worst defensive teams of that season.
A fair comparison, 2010-11 Kobe vs weak prime CP3.
2011 CP3 vs Kobe playoffs: 23.7 pts OA/75, and 12.4 OA asts/75 on +15.6 opp adj rTS
3. These guys aren't proven playoffs performers in this scenario. This is what it looks like when they face elite defense:
2008 Kobe (peak Kobe) vs 08 Celtics (elite defense): 26.7 OA pts/75 on -0.3 opp adj rTS
2010 Kobe vs 10 Celtics (elite defense): 31.2 OA pts/75 on -0.6 opp adj rTS
Kobe will chuck up shots on inefficient tough shot making which is very volatile, and is detrimental to the teams' offense. Kawhi Leonard would be a better fit for Shaq, than an inefficient, shot-chucking ball hog, who isn't that good at defense, and is schemed very easily.
Kobe in 2002 was locked down by a 36 year old Pippen in the first round, with 24.9 OA pts/75 on -4.4 opp adj rTS
.
Shaq got locked down by 1999 DRob, 2001 DRob, and 2000 Rasheed Wallace.
4. Bulls swept a '96 Magic
I know, people will say Shaq isn't the same, and that's true. Nevertheless, didn't he outplay Hakeem in 1995 Finals? And wasn't his sidekick a worse version of Penny? Insert peak Penny
Proxy wrote:Penny 28 games without Shaq in '96
-Averaged 27 per 75 on +10 rTS%
-50 win pace(+3 team without Shaq and with Horace)
-+4 team rORTG
Other stuff from that year:
A top 50 RS AuPM/g peak OAT, top 5 in the league in 1996
#1 in the league according to Pollack's on/off estimates(+17.1) - on a side note the team numbers in *1995* being so similar makes me believe there was maybe some starter substitution stuff going on for those teams, but this year's result was still without Shaq 1/4 of the year so i'd say it's mostly fair
The 96 Magic finished with a rORTG of +5.3 even with Shaq missing 28 games
Shaq missed 28, Horace Grant missed 19. The Magic were a +10 ish SRS team with both iirc...with an offensive rating of 117.6!
After Penny sliced up the Bulls in the 1996 ECF...
and Shaq departed, the following year they were a respectable +3 team with Horace Grant again (+3 ORtg), only this time Penny missed 21 games and without him the Magic were a -6.5 SRS team w/ a -7.9 ORtg.
The Orlando Magic had a stellar +7.7 PS Ortg from 95-97 with what i'd call close to 1A 1B situation on offense for some of those years.
The difference between the 2001 Lakers and 1996 Magic isn't as big as people like to make it seem.
I'd like to say one more, 01 Sixers took a game from 01 Lakers. So there you go. 96 Bulls are easily winning this matchup. In 4/5 games, they win the matchup. It's that easy of a pick. Thank you, and to anyone reading, stay safe in life
