Official Trade Thread - Part XXVIII

[payitforward]

This isn't the ernie countdown thread, so I don't know why we're assessing him here, but since we are... I don't see how there can be any question at all as to his abilities as an NBA GM. Ernie has been the honcho here long enough for any effects of chance to have washed out.

I can't think of any job whatever where, after a dozen years, you'd judge the guy in the job any way except looking at what he's done. Ernie overall ability can be judged on his overall record. Period. And his overall record is terrible. I'd wager that no GM in the last quarter century has kept his job as long as Ernie while delivering the kind of results Ernie has delivered.

Of course, you can also say "look at how good he's doing right now." That's not irrelevant, of course. But, what is "right now?" Is it our season record so far? Our record so far is Ernie's high point in his dozen years w/ the Wizards. Best ever. Top of the heap. And you don't say a guy is as good as the very best he has achieved. Not how you do it. Especially not on a partial season. Klay Thompson had a 37 point quarter last month. Does that make him a 148-point per game scorer?

For that matter, why don't we judge on our last 26 games (12-14) instead of our first 26 (20-6)?

This is a little bit like Hands saying we're really not an old team. You determine how old a team is by adding up all the ages and dividing by the number of players. There's no interpretation involved. If you want to argue that it's ok for us to be an old team, go ahead. But there's no point in denying an obvious fact.

It may be ok for us to have a crappy GM, for that matter -- someone could say "Hey we are fielding a respectable team, a good team, so lets just enjoy that. Anyway, Ernie is in his late sixties; he has to retire some time! Lets just not think about him." In fact, I'm sort of for that way of thinking right now. Especially since it's obvious he's here for as long as he wants to be.

[LyricalRico]

If Miami continues to lose...

Gortat+Webster+Porter+Miller for Bosh+Chalmers

(The emergence of Whiteside is the biggest hinderance from Miami's perspective, IMO. But hey - let's go with it. )

Bosh is a true stretch four with 3pt range, Chalmers is an upgrade at backup PG, and the 2016 cap number is about what it would be if Webster's last year was fully guaranteed. Makes it tougher to get Durant cap-wise, but it could still work. And we'd be a legit contender in the meantime, which might make us more attractive to him to work out a deal.

Nene/Hump
Bosh/Blair
Pierce/Butler
Beal/Temple
Wall/Chalmers

[J-Ves]

If Miami continues to lose...

Gortat+Webster+Porter+Miller for Bosh+Chalmers

(The emergence of Whiteside is the biggest hinderance from Miami's perspective, IMO. But hey - let's go with it. )

Bosh is a true stretch four with 3pt range, Chalmers is an upgrade at backup PG, and the 2016 cap number is about what it would be if Webster's last year was fully guaranteed. Makes it tougher to get Durant cap-wise, but it could still work. And we'd be a legit contender in the meantime, which might make us more attractive to him to work out a deal.

Nene/Hump
Bosh/Blair
Pierce/Butler
Beal/Temple
Wall/Chalmers

If Miami is looking for a salary dump, why take on Gortat and Webster? I'm sure they could find a better deal for Bosh if they really wanted to trade him. Gortat is here to stay, he has way to many years on his deal to make him a valuable trade chip.

[hands11]

@hands11 the Wizards are the /oldest team in the league/ at an average age of 29.0. If you go by minutes the Wizards are the 21st in the league in rotation-adjusted real age. There are three core players in Wall, Beal and Porter that are young, and EVERY OTHER PLAYER ON THE TEAM is on the downside of their career. There's no way of arguing this -- we've got no young bigs whatsoever (#kslife is not a foundational player) and no young promise whatsoever otherwise. That is a /problem/ -- no way around it.

Basketball-Reference has minutes-weighted age in the "Miscellaneous Stats" section of its Season Summary page. The Wizards are 7th in minutes weighted age at 28.7. Dallas, Memphis and San Antonio are the oldest teams at 29.8.

Interesting to see OKC, Golden State and Toronto younger than average.

First off, I was saying add Prigioni for Miller. Prigioni is younger. 2nd, I said add another faster PG.. I listed them. Or add Khem.
And I didn't just list Prigioni. I listed C.J. Watson who is 30. That 9 years younger then Miller.

That doesn't make us older, it makes us younger.

2nd as TSW just posted

Dallas, Memphis and San Antonio are the oldest teams at 29.8.

And those teams suck

Thanks TSW for adding that perceptive.

[hands11]

My main issue is Gortat needs to be moved. He's the only problem I have from a long term perspective.

No, that is not the main issue. The main issue Randy running an offense that maximizes the talents of his players and putting them on the floor in combinations that maximize the rotations. More PnR, PnP. More corner 3s. Less long 2s.

And

The problem is some stubburn fans expectations for this year. This was never supposed to be the year they made a title run.

if the team keeps getting better and better and you are missing the boat the entire way year after year..
The problem isn't Ted/EG ... Its you.

50-52 wins was all that was expected this year. Experts projected 49. They won 44 last year and it was an easier conference.

If they win over 50 while Wall becoming WallStar, while keeping cap, and picks, and repairing their reputation more,

that's solid progress.

[deneem4]

My main issue is Gortat needs to be moved. He's the only problem I have from a long term perspective.

No, that is not the main issue. The main issue Randy running an offense that maximizes the talents of his players and putting them on the floor in combinations that maximize the rotations. More PnR, PnP. More corner 3s. Less long 2s.

And

The problem is some stubburn fans expectations for this year. This was never supposed to be the year they made a title run.

if the team keeps getting better and better and you are missing the boat the entire way year after year..
The problem isn't Ted/EG ... Its you.

50-52 wins was all that was expected this year. Experts projected 49. They won 44 last year and it was an easier conference.

If they win over 50 while Wall becoming WallStar, while keeping cap, and picks, and repairing their reputation more,

that's solid progress.

as a franchise you should never settle for mediocre success,
we have a title potential team if beal get right and gortat can perform like hes paid too...
it falls on wittman but at the same time we haven't executed wittman offense correctly regardless...
beal should be shooting those long 2s much better
wall should be getting tk the line more
and gortat should be able to finish downlow

our key players are lacking, and we're still a top 5 in a weak conference, settling for thst isnt going to make this a preferred destination for Durant

[nate33]

I just don't see how that core is a fair bit better than mediocre. By east standards maybe we'd be okay, but when the western conference enters the picture we're indeed just around that mediocre level.

I don't understand your point.

If you are trying to argue that the team, as constructed, isn't a contender, well then I don't think anybody disagrees with you. I'm just saying that EG doesn't believe this is a contender either.

You can't just wish for extra talent to appear. All you can do is your best. EG's 2011 draft was disastrous. But from that point forward, I think he's done a fair job of executing a rational plan. He acquired some good vets without sacrificing any important assets so he can develop the few good young players we have while also making us an attractive free agent destination. And he's got it set up so we can augment the team with a major cap room in 2016. What exactly should he be doing?

Again, I'm all in favor of firing EG because he's a horrible drafter. But don't nitpick on his current plan because it's a pretty sound one, and arguably the wisest strategy going forward. The alternative is to dump everyone and tank for high picks. Would you prefer that? Is it even possible to tank on a team with John Wall?

[Ruzious]

If Miami continues to lose...

Gortat+Webster+Porter+Miller for Bosh+Chalmers

(The emergence of Whiteside is the biggest hinderance from Miami's perspective, IMO. But hey - let's go with it. )

Bosh is a true stretch four with 3pt range, Chalmers is an upgrade at backup PG, and the 2016 cap number is about what it would be if Webster's last year was fully guaranteed. Makes it tougher to get Durant cap-wise, but it could still work. And we'd be a legit contender in the meantime, which might make us more attractive to him to work out a deal.

Nene/Hump
Bosh/Blair
Pierce/Butler
Beal/Temple
Wall/Chalmers

If Miami is looking for a salary dump, why take on Gortat and Webster? I'm sure they could find a better deal for Bosh if they really wanted to trade him. Gortat is here to stay, he has way to many years on his deal to make him a valuable trade chip.

Really, why under any circumstances would Miami basically trade Bosh for Gortat?

[sashae]

Riley has acquired a bad glue sniffing habit?

[hands11]

My main issue is Gortat needs to be moved. He's the only problem I have from a long term perspective.

No, that is not the main issue. The main issue Randy running an offense that maximizes the talents of his players and putting them on the floor in combinations that maximize the rotations. More PnR, PnP. More corner 3s. Less long 2s.

And

The problem is some stubburn fans expectations for this year. This was never supposed to be the year they made a title run.

if the team keeps getting better and better and you are missing the boat the entire way year after year..
The problem isn't Ted/EG ... Its you.

50-52 wins was all that was expected this year. Experts projected 49. They won 44 last year and it was an easier conference.

If they win over 50 while Wall becoming WallStar, while keeping cap, and picks, and repairing their reputation more,

that's solid progress.

as a franchise you should never settle for mediocre success,
we have a title potential team if beal get right and gortat can perform like hes paid too...
it falls on wittman but at the same time we haven't executed wittman offense correctly regardless...
beal should be shooting those long 2s much better
wall should be getting tk the line more
and gortat should be able to finish downlow

our key players are lacking, and we're still a top 5 in a weak conference, settling for thst isnt going to make this a preferred destination for Durant

Sure. If you ignore everything I wrote. You have an axe to grind. Like I said and you reiterated. The problem lies with those who have higher expectation and a different time line then the franchise does. Those same people that focus on the older players that aren't going to be here in 1-2 years that where brought here to help stabilize the team and team Wall, Beal, Otto and even Kevin. All younger players. I'm said it a 100 times. Start a few years ago, they decided to trim back on young players and focus on the only one or ones that matter. Starting with WALLSTAR.

People wanted a plan. We they laid one out. And so far, it look like they are sticking to it. This was not the year they assembled a title team. This is a another year to grow Wall, repair the franchises reputation, get more playoff experience, get cap and assets and have the team learn from Paul. Specially come playoff time.

They are now a franchise that will be the legit running for almost any FA that comes available. And if they trade for someone, that someone isn't going to ask for a buy out like they had in the past when we sucked.

If they catch fire and get out of the 2nd round.. Great. But not required. Not this year. This is a growth year.

What I expect and what I expect they expect is to get out of the first round and fight to try to get out of the 2nd.

I expect them to learn to play with a lead. How to put teams away. How to start believing they can win a title in the next 2-3 years. And for Wall to become WALLSTAR in this round of playoffs.

Anyone with expectations higher then that are setting up their own axe to grind.

[Ruzious]

Aren't we still on the 12 year plan for Blatche to become a star? Keep hope alive!

[LyricalRico]

Riley has acquired a bad glue sniffing habit?

Hey, whatever it takes! LOL

[LyricalRico]

If Miami continues to lose...

Gortat+Webster+Porter+Miller for Bosh+Chalmers

(The emergence of Whiteside is the biggest hinderance from Miami's perspective, IMO. But hey - let's go with it. )

Bosh is a true stretch four with 3pt range, Chalmers is an upgrade at backup PG, and the 2016 cap number is about what it would be if Webster's last year was fully guaranteed. Makes it tougher to get Durant cap-wise, but it could still work. And we'd be a legit contender in the meantime, which might make us more attractive to him to work out a deal.

Nene/Hump
Bosh/Blair
Pierce/Butler
Beal/Temple
Wall/Chalmers

If Miami is looking for a salary dump, why take on Gortat and Webster? I'm sure they could find a better deal for Bosh if they really wanted to trade him. Gortat is here to stay, he has way to many years on his deal to make him a valuable trade chip.

Really, why under any circumstances would Miami basically trade Bosh for Gortat?

But seriously, you're right about the lopsided value. I wanted to put Beal in the deal instead of Porter, but I could already hear the "old for young" cries so I backed off. But I do think that something around Gortat+Webster+Beal for Bosh+Chalmers is interesting. It would set up a perfect landing spot for Ray Allen at SG this season, and we would then be picking a guard in the draft instead of a big.

[Ruzious]

I would not be opposed to a Beal trade (every time I say that, I expect flying debris near my head), but yeah - I'd like the Wiz to get a young player if they do trade him.

[payitforward]

I would not be opposed to a Beal trade (every time I say that, I expect flying debris near my head), but yeah - I'd like the Wiz to get a young player if they do trade him.

Sure. In fact, *any player* can be traded -- it all depends on what you get back in the trade. So, ignore the flying debris!

I love Beal. He was the guy I wanted us to pick in '12. He has a high ceiling, he's already played very well for stretches, and he is still only 21. But he's no sure thing to be a star.

But I certainly wouldn't trade him to take back Bosh and Chalmers! Bosh has been an outstanding player, but he's in the last quarter of his career. And Chalmers, though a good player, isn't someone we'd get enough value out of. We could use a young(er) backup PG, but he wouldn't get enough minutes to warrant giving up a lot for him.

The idea that with Bosh & Chalmers we'd be a title contender also strikes me as wishful thinking.

[Ruzious]

I would not be opposed to a Beal trade (every time I say that, I expect flying debris near my head), but yeah - I'd like the Wiz to get a young player if they do trade him.

Sure. In fact, *any player* can be traded -- it all depends on what you get back in the trade. So, ignore the flying debris!

I love Beal. He was the guy I wanted us to pick in '12. He has a high ceiling, he's already played very well for stretches, and he is still only 21. But he's no sure thing to be a star.

But I certainly wouldn't trade him to take back Bosh and Chalmers! Bosh has been an outstanding player, but he's in the last quarter of his career. And Chalmers, though a good player, isn't someone we'd get enough value out of. We could use a young(er) backup PG, but he wouldn't get enough minutes to warrant giving up a lot for him.

The idea that with Bosh & Chalmers we'd be a title contender also strikes me as wishful thinking.

I agree - Beal was the right pick, but his growing pains are my groaning pains. Many (not just posters here) assume he's going to be a big star because it took a while for most of the current quality 2's to develop - and that kind of logic grates on me, but it's out there - so my impression is that his trade value exceeds his actual value.

[payitforward]

...The problem lies with those who have higher expectation and a different time line then the franchise does.

I don't think so, Hands. It's perfectly legit to *disagree* with the time line the franchise has set. That would be true even if the franchise had been successful a few times w/ their time lines, but given that they haven't been there's plenty of room to disagree w/ what you see as their "plan."

Those same people that focus on the older players that aren't going to be here in 1-2 years... I'm said it a 100 times. Start a few years ago, they decided to trim back on young players and focus on the only one or ones that matter. Starting with WALLSTAR.

Not sure anyone needed you to say 100 times something as obvious as that. The minute they made the Okariza trade, it was obvious that was the plan. From my POV, Ted saw a very dissatisfied fan-base that was holding down revenue, and he blinked on his "build through youth and the draft" plan.

People wanted a plan. We they laid one out. And so far, it look like they are sticking to it. This was not the year they assembled a title team. This is a another year to grow Wall, repair the franchises reputation, get more playoff experience, get cap and assets and have the team learn from Paul. Specially come playoff time.

The test is not whether you have a plan but what you achieve. The point you make about Paul Pierce you already made about Okafor, for whose 2000 minutes we paid $21m (1 year of salary and the delta over Gortat's salary last year) and a mid-R1 pick in a very deep draft. It'd be sad to view that sequence of "no plan B" moves as brilliant!

(1)They are now a franchise that will be the legit running for almost any FA that comes available....

(2)...This is a growth year. ,,,get out of the first round and fight to try to get out of the 2nd.... start believing they can win a title in the next 2-3 years.

I agree w/ the first of those points. We're not anywhere near the nadir we were at. Given the assets we had to work with, it'd be pathetic if we were!

The second point is fascinating: I take it that you, Hands, believe that "they can win a title in the next 2-3 years." Otherwise, surely, you would not critique people who disagreed with their "time line." Do you believe that, Hands? With development, this team can win a title in the next 2-3 years? Above all, do you believe it independent of whether we hit the Durant jackpot? Obviously, there is no way they could have had that in that timeline/plan they set in place, as you say, "a few years ago."

If you do, then your argument makes sense. If you don't, then it makes sense to critique the so-called timeline, and your argument makes no sense. Either way, we can see whether you are right or wrong over time.

As to this...

Anyone with expectations higher then that are setting up their own axe to grind.

...you are certainly right. How could anyone have higher expectations than to be a title contender?

[LyricalRico]

Minny possibly looking to flip (pun intended) Gary Neal after swapping Mo Williams for him. Any takers? I wouldn't mind this...

Seraphin+Miller for Neal+Budinger

...followed by Webster+2nd to Sacto for Jason Thompson. Then sign Ray Allen and our bench looks solid for a post ASG run.

Thompson
Humphries
Porter/Butler
Allen
Neal (not a true PG, but still an upgrade IMO)

[wolves_89]

Minny possibly looking to flip (pun intended) Gary Neal after swapping Mo Williams for him. Any takers? I wouldn't mind this...

Seraphin+Miller for Neal+Budinger

Minnesota would make that trade.

[queridiculo]

I'd be far more interested in making a deal for Thad Young. It's too bad the Wizards don't really have any assets to make it happen.