2020 NBA Draft Prospect Watch - Revised Poll

[Ghost of Kleine]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2020/10/3/21496316/suns-2020-draft-spotlight-obi-toppin-the-suns-board-on-draft-night

[Ghost of Kleine]

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https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/shamarkus-kennedy-1.html

Shamarkus Kennedy

Position: Forward

6-8, 220lb (203cm, 99kg)

Hometown: Tuscaloosa, AL

High School: Northridge (AL)

School: McNeese State

- 2019-20 All-Southland.
- Southland All-Defense.
- 2019-20 Southland DPOY

23

SUMMARY

2019-20
G- 31
PTS- 18.6 points / 10.9 Rebounds/ 1.5 assists / 2.6 blocks/ 0.7 steals/ 68% EFG/ 70% TS/ .259 WS/40/ 5.6 BPM/ 34.0 PER. ( ** AGE 22).

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Could he be a big time value consideration? Mature at 22 yrs old/ very productive with extraordinarily impressive advanced stats. Yes he needs to improve his 3 point shot, But he seems to have incredible potential. Could he help us right away perhaps?

[Ghost of Kleine]

Adam Zagoria (@AdamZagoria) Tweeted:
“He’s not interested in the spoils of life, the money, the cars, the jewelry, the women, he’s not interested in that. He’s interested in competing at the next level. That’s why he wants to make it to the NBA and that’s why I feel he should be the No. 1 pick.” - agent Omar Cooper

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Stuff getting a bit crazy and delusional on the draft front. Now his mental stability may be a concern as well as his shooting!

[AtheJ415]

Having a GM who actually targets older players is a really bad place to be in during the draft. The trend favors the opposite as far as getting actual difference makers long-term. Vet rotation players are the easiest to find in the entire league so finding somebody who can contribute from day 1 ahead of all else is not ideal imo. Just sign a 25 year old rotation player.

[Blonde]

Right now my Suns specific big board is as follows:

Hayes
Ball
Edwards
Okoro
Lewis
Vassell
Cole Anthony
Deni
Patrick Williams
Maxey
Haliburton
Toppin
Bane
Riller
Tyrell Terry

Williams, Maxey, and Terry being my biggest risers lately, and Toppin and Haliburton being my biggest fallers. I prioritize long term fit, versatility, and playmaking. Specialists we can always get in free agency or trade. Needs to have a reasonable chance at becoming a plus starter.

I’m usually not into super raw PF prospects like Pat Williams but if he hits his 75% outcome he’d be the perfect guy to play next to Ayton. Okoro on the other hand is the type of prospect I fall for a lot: toolsy, powerful wing who can handle, pass, drive, and defend but can’t shoot. I got burnt on guys like this with Winslow, Jackson, and Culver (tbd), but then you have OG Anunoby and Jaylen Brown as successful examples of this archtype. Obviously you have Kawhi and Butler but that’s not a realistic outcome here. I just feel like this is the type of player you take the gamble on because if he hits, he hits big. Okoro has outlier levels of strength, wing defense, finishing, and foul drawing that could turn out to be a very high impact player. That said, I’m really not super confident in any single player except maybe Hayes.

[atlantabbq99]

I was wondering if the PHX fans would be interested in #6 for #10 and a heavily protected 2021 pick?

I want the Hawks to draft Jalen Smith and #6 seems too high for that.

[Walt_Uoob]

I was wondering if the PHX fans would be interested in #6 for #10 and a heavily protected 2021 pick?

I want the Hawks to draft Jalen Smith and #6 seems too high for that.

I would almost definitely do that. My concern is there are a small handful of guys I'm truly excited about, and at least one of them will definitely be there at 6 but they all will likely be gone by 10. But I don't want to give up Oubre to get up to 2 like keeps getting mentioned. So this is exactly the sort of trade I'd like to see if any.

Sent from my moto x4 using RealGM mobile app

[atlantabbq99]

^ Cool, I'm with you. I hope the Hawks can find a way to trade down on draft night.

[Ghost of Kleine]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-draft-top-100-prospects-players-rising-falling-on-big-board-as-virtual-combine-begins/amp/

Risers:
Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia 
- Previous: 17
- Current: 12

The balance between intrigue surrounding Pokusevski and known intel surrounding him is heavily skewed towards the former. He's a mystery. And as time passes us by, I get the sense that teams want him to stay that way. Pop his tape and you'll see a 7-foot, 205-pound rail who needs serious physical maturation -- but also a fluid athlete who can run the floor, shoot it and defend. The blend of his size, skill and upside is All-Star caliber if he can put it together. It's a big if, of course, but in a draft mostly devoid of potential game-changers, I find it more and more unlikely he slips out of the first round. At some point, one team is going to weigh the risk and reward and decide a developmental investment -- even if it takes time, and even if he never reaches his ceiling -- is worth what he could become. 


Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
- Previous: 18
- Current: 11

I could lie to you and tell you that Tyler Herro's rapid rise with the Miami Heat as a rookie isn't a factor here in Maxey getting a healthy bump, but, I pride myself on being a straight shooter. And the truth is that Herro's star turn in the NBA Playoffs, where he's shown an ability to score it off the bounce and create, is aces for Maxey's draft stock. Maxey struggled to shoot it from distance at UK and projects more as a shooting  guard than a point guard in the NBA, but there's similarities between the two -- particularly their roles with UK -- that suggest that Maxey, like Herro, will have more NBA success than he did in college. He's an incredible on-ball defender with an elite pedigree. So if his shot improves only slightly from his time in college, there's a non-zero chance he winds up as a top-five player from this class and turns out to be a steal in this range. It's hard to overlook the fact that he shot below 30% from 3-point range in college, but with NBA spacing, the potential of him becoming a serviceable shooter vaults him into a higher tier than where he's currently being valued. Buy low. 

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis
- Previous: 25
- Current: 17

There remains some curiosity about how, exactly, Achiuwa fits in the NBA. Is he a true center? Can he play power forward? Because of his 6-9 frame, he's seen as something of a tweener. And that's probably why teams haven't entirely bought into him. But size be damned, results are incredible. He's a voracious rim-protector, has great feet and plays with high energy. Defending post to perimeter isn't a problem for him, and versatility on that end of the floor is a strength. Whether he plays power forward or center, he'll be an impactful defensive presence, and in time, his fit on offense will work itself out. Any fit concerns should be taken with, at minimum, six grains of salt; Achiuwa can ball. Plain and simple. 

Isaiah Joe, Arkansas
- Previous: NR
- Current: 19

New to the Big Board not because of a rapid rise, but because Joe initially announced he was returning to college. Now that he's two-toes deep with the process, he's debuting on the Big Board at No. 19. Joe had a down year by his own standards last season at Arkansas as he dealt with lingering injuries, but he was widely viewed as one of the most lethal shooters in the country ahead of last season. Quick, smooth release and reliable 3-point shooter who has an immediate role ready for him in the NBA as a bucket-getter. It's a skill set that's at a premium right now in the NBA, and I expect teams will happily pay up -- and pay up early. 


Tyrell Terry, Stanford
- Previous: 22
- Current: 20

With Terry, there's only two components of his game holding him back. The first is fixable: he's only around 160 pounds. He needs to add a good amount of healthy weight and muscle, which he's been working on all offseason. The second is not, though it shouldn't be a hindrance: he's 6-3. So to sum it up: he's a small guard who needs to add weight and may always operate at a slight disadvantage height-wise. But he's so, so smooth as a scorer -- maybe one of the best in this draft class. The way he can hit shots from all three levels is brilliant enough that some of the concerns about his size may shrink as teams focus in on what he does well. 

Fallers
Theo Maledon, France
- Previous: 16
- Current: 21

Trending down, but still a huge fan of Maledon's game overall. He's a 6-4 combo guard who can defend multiple positions and has enough creation ability to take a flyer on as a point guard or a shooting guard, given the tools he has at his disposal. But he's not elite in any particular area, and he's just-OK as an athlete. His biggest selling point as a player is his speed and versatility on defense, and I'm not totally convinced that combo is worthy of lottery range. 

Josh Green, Arizona
- Previous: 16
- Current: 25

There's not a ton of depth at the wing position in this year's draft, with a clear drop-off between the lottery and the range where Josh Green will likely be selected. That probably is going to play in his favor, and why I still have him higher than most. But there's an argument to be made that a role player like Green who can defend and play off the ball may not go as high as, say Pokusevski or Terry, dependent upon how teams approach the draft. He has a nice, safe floor, but there's nice role players in this draft in the late 20s, which is where I'd lump Green in right now. 

[RunDogGun]

I was wondering if the PHX fans would be interested in #6 for #10 and a heavily protected 2021 pick?

I want the Hawks to draft Jalen Smith and #6 seems too high for that.

I am one of the few on here who wants to draft Smith at #10, but if Toppin is available at #6, I might be for this trade.

[bwgood77]

I ultimately think the Suns big board, based on what I know Jones likes, and wanting experienced players, is something like Haliburton, then maybe a trade down or simply take a guy like Bane because they really like him, and then possibly Riller, though he's projected lower. Those are the main seniors, then I also think they probably like, to some extent, guys like Vassell, Nesmith and Toppin. Not sure how much they would like Toppin, but with his finishing, passing, outside shooting, blocks, and maybe being able to be a backup big (better at guarding bigs) and being pretty good with blocks and steals as well...he seems like the versatility they like. I do have a feeling some team will really like Toppin though and likely take him in top 6 or 7...or even someone trade up. It wouldn't shock me to see GS take him as high as #2 either if they can't find a good trade, given his readiness, and finishing, shooting and passing, and also having Draymond to play in the middle and a spread floor.

[Ghost of Kleine]

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

The college guard creator: a lovable, yet difficult archetype. It seems like there are about thirty-five thousand guards who stand out in college basketball in a given year, and it can be hard to decipher just how wide the gaps are between different players. Despite the events of the 2019 Elite 8, Carsen Edwards is not Damian Lillard.

 

So, how do we crack the code? Well, we can’t. That’s just the way the draft is. But we can try.

 

I scoured through BartTorvik and Basketball-Reference collecting data could help us project how guard prospects will fare in the NBA. You can check out the full spreadsheet here. Amongst all my research, one statistic stands out: Unassisted Rim Makes per 40 Minutes (I’ll refer to it as UARM/40 at times). In other words how many self-created around-the-rim shots does a given player make every 40 minutes? 

 

I collected nearly 150 different guards’ unassisted rim makes/40 numbers dating back to 2011. While high UARM/40 doesn't automatically yield NBA stars, it most certainly counts for something. 


The layup is the highest percentage field goal attempt in basketball. Create layups and you're golden. Have enough rim gravity to force a defense to collapse on your drive and Voilà! You've created an open shot for a teammate. But generating layup opportunities is easier said than done, especially when you’re going up against Division I defenders, and if you can’t get to the rim in college, how are you going to do so in the NBA?

 

Again, this stat isn’t the end-all-be-all to finding All-Star initiators in the college ranks, but it is an important tool that when used alongside film and other important statistics can help aid us in our evaluations. 

The Cream of the Crop
 
Guards with over 2.9 UARM/40

*Note: Kyrie Irving only played 11 games in college. 

De'Aaron Fox, Ja Morant, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Victor Oladipo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, CJ McCollum, and Damian Lillard pop off the page immediately as primary guard creators and elite secondary guys. There are also plenty of disappointments. How do we draw the line?


Shooting still matters. Two words: Elfrid. Payton. Payton got to the rim at a high rate in college, but he just couldn't shoot. 25.9% from three on low volume, 60.9% from the charity stripe, and 26.3% on long 2's as a Junior at Louisiana Lafayette is about as troubling a shooting profile as you're going to find for a 6'3" player. His shooting numbers were stagnant for three straight seasons. De'Aaron Fox's shooting indicators weren't great, but even he shot 12.7% better from the foul line, 11.2% better on long 2's, and had two fewer years of NCAA development. Archie Goodwin, Tony Wroten, Isaiah Briscoe, and Dennis Smith Jr. also fell into the "couldn't shoot" trap. 


You have to be awesome to play in the NBA. You have to be really awesome to be sub-6'2" and play in the NBA. Take Jawun Evans. He got to the rim all the time in his Sophomore year at Oklahoma State. However, he came into the league at 6'0" 170 lbs. Evans' size and lack of vertical pop shows up in his finishing profile: 48.7% at the rim with zero dunks/40 isn't good. Oklahoma Trae Young was similar to Evans in some regards. Trae was tiny, inefficient at the cup, and didn't have a single college dunk to his name. There might be a little something that sets Trae Young apart though:

As long as a guard with a high number of rim makes can shoot at a decent level and isn't an undersized, poor vertical athlete, NBA success should be on the horizon. Even if they don't become a Damian Lillard-level megastar, they'll probably be able to stick around the league as a valuable rotation player à la Derick White, Delon Wright, Norman Powell, or Jordan Clarkson. 

Some interesting points on Grant Riller and Kira Lewis. Two of 3 guards that I'm pretty high on for varying reasons.

Kansas' Devon Dotson had plenty of rim makes this year, but he's only 6'2", had one dunk in 2 years, and has a questionable jumper. I have similar concerns about Saben Lee, though Lee's vertical pop sets him apart a little bit. No 6'2" prospect in my study has close to as many dunks/40 as Lee does. 


I don't want you to put all your eggs into the Myles Powell basket, but he's still being undervalued in this class. While Powell's shot selection is brash and efficiency isn't the name of his game, I'd consider selecting him in the early-mid second round. 

In my eyes, Grant Riller, Kira Lewis Jr., and Skylar Mays are the three most worthwhile prospects here. 

Grant Riller
I wrote about Grant Riller a little while ago, so I won't go into too much depth here. There’s an argument against him: he’s an older prospect who played at a small college who won’t provide much value on the defensive end. But if his scoring package doesn’t wow you, I’m not sure whose will. Fun fact: with a stronger supporting cast at Charleston as a Junior, Riller averaged 4.06 UARM/40, 0.55 dunks/40, and shot 46.8% from mid-range. 

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

Kira Lewis

Kira Lewis Jr. is projected to be selected in the 20’s by some major media sites, and I’m not quite sure why. Lewis doesn’t have the body control and functional strength of Riller (not many do), but in terms of pure speed, nobody in this class can match him. 

I question whether or not Kira has what it takes to be THE lead guard on a good NBA team. He has the body of Ja Morant and De'Aaron Fox, but not an ounce of their vertical explosiveness.  Regardless, Kira is a lottery-level prospect. Even if he doesn't become a high-volume initiator, his spot-up shooting and first step off the catch will make him a lethal off-ball player. Let's just run by everyone!

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1
Skylar Mays

Skylar Mays is a 4-year college player with athletic limitations who possesses an intriguing blend of craftiness and strength. Again, size and shooting matter. Mays also has the best-looking shooting profile on this list by a sizable margin. He probably won't be a primary guard creator for a starting unit, but I'm in on him as starting secondary creator/bench lead guard. 




https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

Vs. Potential top 5 pick Onyeka Okongwu:


https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

The Middle of the Pack 


Players with between 2.89 and 1.7 UARM/40




I don’t think it’s possible to filter this list down as we did earlier. Bigger guards seem to fare better, but what about Kemba and FVV (though Freddy is an outlier strength guy)? You probably have to be a top-notch shooter in college, right? Hey, let’s miss out on Bradley Beal and roll with Jimmer Fredette or Marcus Thornton. Efficiency matters…until you realize that these are the top 15 guys in True Shooting from this group:

- Lonzo Ball
- Allonzo Trier
- Khyri Thomas
- Justin Wright-Foreman
- Charles Jenkins
- Aaron Holiday
- Jerome Robinson
- Marcus Thornton
- Nate Wolters
- Jordan Adams
- Yogi Ferrell
- Frank Jackson
- Jimmer Fredette
- Cody Martin
- Jerian Grant

Fred VanVleet posted a TS% of 52% as a senior at Wichita State and Donovan Mitchell was at 53.4% as a sophomore at Louisville. 







Tyler Ennis was drafted in the top 20 in 2014. At Syracuse, he didn’t score inside often, wasn’t very efficient around the rim (or in general), was 6’2” and pretty thin, had low win-shares, and didn’t have a great shooting profile. Some basic statistical analysis allows us to conclude that Ennis probably shouldn’t have been drafted as high as he was. 


For the most part, Jimmer Fredette’s statistical profile is gorgeous.







There are two major negatives here: 1) the size, low dunks, and low steal rate combo (in other words, failure to hit a few basic athleticism thresholds), and 2) the large quantity of unassisted long 2’s and unassisted threes. Only 31% of Jimmer’s self-created makes came at the rim. 

Jimmer falls into the two groups that I'll call in the "no-no lists."


Players 6'3" and shorter with under w/ steal rate under 2.4% and less than 0.2 dunks/40 minutes



Players with either:
Less than 32% of their self-created made field goals made at rim 


or 

Over two unassisted made long 2's/40 and under two unassisted rim makes/40




A few 2020 guys pop up on each of these. Cole Anthony appears on both. Cole is one of the more perplexing prospects in this class. He was a dominant pre-college player who failed to live up to his lofty expectations as a college freshman. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for most of the season. Lineups with Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, and Garrison brooks don't yield ideal spacing, and he also missed time with a meniscus injury. 


Sure, Cole wasn't thrust into an ideal situation at North Carolina, but that doesn't mean we should ignore his obvious flaws. Cole's finishing was a mess this year, his burst didn't translate from high school to the ACC. 


Cole struggling to turn corner against Bama defender:
https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

Cole is a great off the dribble shooter. I just worry about everything else to the point where I'm not sure I'd be willing to invest valuable draft capital on him. 

https://wamorrishoops.blogspot.com/2020/10/attempting-to-crack-college-guard-code.html?m=1

Here's the rest of the Middle-of-the-Pack UARM/40 guys in the 2020 class: 



I’ll just say this: you're probably not going to find a primary/elite secondary ball-handler here unless a player's pull-up shooting or finishing is elite. 

Below Average



Ok, we can narrow this one down. 


Players from the above list over 6’5”:


We’ll also set a baseline level for “touch." I don't have access to shooting splits on floaters and runners, so I'll just use the following thresholds: 35% on long 2’s, 75% from free throw line, and 55% at the rim. 



We lost Zach LaVine, who didn’t have the touch indicators (69% from FT line, 56.7% at rim). LaVine, however, is kind of a different breed, as he happens to be one of the best vertical and first-step athletes in NBA history. 


All the good secondary guard creators from this group are large and have soft touch. All the good primaries are Devin Booker. 

 

The sub-6’5” group isn’t great. Devonte’ Graham had a breakout year in Charlotte. Quinn Cook and Matthew Dellavadova are NBA champions. Cory Joseph gets paid 12 million dollars a year from the Kings. Nonetheless, these aren’t players you want to use lottery picks on. 

 
2020 players in Below Average group:


Interestingly enough, Haliburton falls into the Brogdon/DLo/Herro/Booker group in terms of height and touch. I’m still very skeptical about his potential as a self-creator. Haliburton is only 175 lbs. and given his high hips and narrow shoulders, I’m not sure how much more weight he can add. I also don’t buy him as a handler and pull-up shooter to the same degree as Booker, Herro, Brogdon, or Russell. 

 
Nico Mannion, Ty-Shon Alexander, Immanuel Quickley, and Jahmi'us Ramsey pop up here as well. Mannion and Quickley are on both no-no lists.

I'm not saying these guys aren't capable of playing in the NBA. I'm very high on Ty-Shon Alexander as a suffocating guard defender, and think that Nico Mannion's intelligence is undervalued. I just don't feel good about any of these players as advantage creators. 


You don't need to base your entire evaluation of a player off of their statistical profile, but numbers, and specifically rim makes, can clearly help us in our pursuit to find guard creators in the draft. 

[Ghost of Kleine]

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[Ghost of Kleine]

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Zona Hoops

OCT 6, 2020 AT 12:26 PM

Top 10 Sleepers: NBA Draft Fits

This list will strictly be based off my top 10 sleepers in terms of where they seem to be ranked by the consensus or through NBA intel. Most of these guys aren't exactly secrets at this point, but their stock should be much higher in the eyes of decision-makers in my humble opinion.

I will list 10 sleepers/undervalued prospects with my 3 favorite team-fits for them in order. What does "fit" mean specifically? For this exercise it's where I believe they land in a spot that optimizes them and gives them the clearest path towards fulfilling their highest potential. For some of these fits it's more about opportunity as well, especially someone like Riller to the Knicks for example. 

I'll do my best to avoid using the same three or four teams over and over again, since it's obvious some teams would be ideal landing spots for more than half of these guys due to their development system and team infrastructure in place. Will also do my best to include every team at least once, but won't reach if it's simply not true so if I leave your favorite team off, it's not personal. 

---

1. Desmond Bane:
SG, 6'5"- TCU.

Fits: Mavericks, 76ers, Lakers.

Bane needs to be on a team that has competent creators or at least certified primaries so he can serve his role as a legitimate "3&D" star role player. He is the best shooter in this draft, and he is ready to play a significant role right away. There are way more than three teams that he links into perfectly like a lego piece, but these are the three that stand out. 

Dallas- Plugging him in next to Luka would be awesome on many levels, as he can serve a similar role that Seth Curry is now, except offer more defensive upside and tenacity to go with his lights out shooting. They have the 18th and 31st picks in this draft, so they will have a chance to take him at least once at 18 more than likely. If they wait until their 31st pick, there's a chance he could be gone, but either way I believe this would be one of the optimal situations for him from day one.

Philadelphia desperately needs an off-guard that can serve as a floor spacer next to Ben Simmons, and Bane's ability to hit shots at a high level and defend would make him a high impact rotation player from day one. His ability to play off-ball in a role where he won't be asked to do a ton of creation with their two cornerstones in Simmons and Embiid taking on most of those duties, he could reap the benefits of being a catch and shoot guy that will be difficult to keep off the floor with the shooting gravity he projects to bring. Philly holds the 21st, 34th and 36th picks which all figure to be in his general range and they also have two later 2nd rounders they could use in some combination to trade up for another first in the 20s to target someone like Bane. 

Los Angeles would give him a very specific and limited role with their two stars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis set in place, and that could be for the best for him to be maximized as a star role player. Ideally for Bane, he winds up on a playoff contender that needs his archetype and gives him meaningful minutes as you have already likely noticed from the previous two landing spots. The Lakers pick 28th, and if he's still on the board they need to very strongly consider taking him or they could regret it. It wouldn't at all be shocking to see him get postseason minutes next season if he winds up in the right spot. 

---

2. Grant Riller:
PG, 6'3"- Charleston.

Fits: Magic, Knicks, Raptors.

Riller, like Bane, is an older guard that is ready to carve out a role right away and he should have a clear path towards securing that role from day one in the right situation. He has one of, if not the best first-step in this class and can finish at an elite level for a guard. His three-level scoring package could make him a dynamic scorer off the bench/spot-starter for many years to come. There may even be some starter potential if he hits a high-end outcome and lands in a favorable situation for him to achieve it. 

Orlando needs offense in any form they can get it. Fultz had a bit of resurgence last season, but with Augustin hitting the open market and Fournier's player option in the air, adding a guard that can score in his sleep would be very welcome for a team that has struggled to put the ball in the bucket at times. Orlando likely won't take Riller with their 15th pick as that would be a massive reach based off where he's projected to go, but with the 45th pick they hold in round 2, he should be at the top of their wishlist if he's still there. 

New York has the 27th and 38th picks to go with the 8th overall pick, so there's a chance Riller will be available for them in one or two of those spots, and if he is they should strongly consider taking him. For a team that desperately needs scoring and someone that can take pressure off RJ Barrett, Riller would be able to come in and offer as much stability as a rookie can. The Knicks should take a swing with the 8th pick, but with their later picks taking "safer" players like Riller, Bane, Flynn, etc. would make a ton of sense as they hunt for a blend of talent and competence.

Toronto could lose Fred VanVleet to free agency, and if they do there is not a better immediate (and long-term) solution to fill that void than adding someone like Grant Riller. Their development staff is tremendous as many know by now, and this is a spot where I think it would not only be beneficial for him, but for the team itself to add his offensive package. The Raptors sorely needed some creation in their semi-finals loss to the Boston Celtics. Toronto is set to pick 29th in the draft, and there's a decent chance Riller could still be on the board there. If he is they need to take him and run.

---

3. Malachi Flynn:
PG, 6'1"- San Diego St.

Fits: Heat, Raptors, 76ers.

Flynn is an absolute rockstar and pleasure to watch play basketball. He took college basketball by storm last year at San Diego State with his ability to not only be a consistent floor general, but create shots for himself from anywhere on the court. His creation ability and savvy he brings working out of the P&R could help teams looking for additional creators off the bench. In today's NBA, you can never have enough shot creation. 

Miami- Flynn would fit in like a lego piece (as many would) in Miami with their diverse offensive system that gives players freedom and deploys a ton of movement and sharing the ball. They do not have a point guard of the future, so I like this fit on many levels both in immediate impact and in long-term need. He has that Miami vibe to him as well, he'd fit right in that strong culture they've built. 

Toronto- As mentioned with Riller, Flynn would bring a creation spark to a Toronto team that struggled with it in the playoffs at times. FVV is entering the open market and Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger, so it's why I've linked both Riller and Flynn to a Toronto team that is set to pick 29th in the NBA Draft. Based off all the steam Flynn has received of late, it seems like there's a decent chance he will be gone by pick 29, but if he's there I'd love to see how he develops in that Toronto system. 

Philadelphia- This fit along with Bane (mentioned above) are two of my absolute favorites for the 76ers as they search for floor spacing and creation. Flynn would bring more of the creation to the table than Bane, and offer them a legitimate "bucket getter" that they could certainly use to play alongside Simmons. To me, this is the ideal pick for Philly, and they have plenty of picks in this range to make it a reality. If they can find a way to end up with Flynn and Bane they are the winners of this draft (relative to where they are picking). 

---4. Leandro Bolmaro:
G/F, 6'7"- Barcelona.

Fits: Nuggets, Heat, Jazz.

Bolmaro's intense defense and playmaking ability make him a very unique prospect despite the concerns over the jumper and self-creation. He's best suited in a role where he can play alongside other creators and be developed slowly over the course of a few years. In the right system, with the right development staff, I believe he has a chance to wind up as a top 10 player in this class. 

Denver constantly takes swings when a player with high upside falls into their lap, and it would be no different here with Bolmaro if they took him with the 22nd pick. They have the luxury of being a deep team that could take their time developing him in a good system and pry out all of his upside playing off and learning from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. He also seems like the type of player Mike Malone would love to coach. 

Miami has an excellent infrastructure for Bolmaro to succeed as they run their offense through a variety of creators at each position with Adebayo, Butler, Herro, Dragic, and others sharing responsibilities without a true primary creator. Leandro's mixture of being a tireless worker on the defensive end and ability to create for others would make him a very interesting fit on a Miami team that could maximize his potential. The luxury with this landing spot much like Denver is they'd be able to develop him slowly. Miami has the 20th pick, so this could be a legitimate landing spot for the Argentinian. 

Utah could find a long-term replacement for Joe Ingles' role in their offensive system and Bolmaro being a second engine with size and playmaking could make him a nice heir for the lefty from Australia. He needs to improve the jumper and add some strength, but luckily if he landed here they'd be able to bring him along slowly and develop him in a constructive way to maximize his potential. The Jazz hold the 23rd pick in the NBA Draft, and that is roughly right around Bolmaro's projected range.  

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5. Xavier Tillman:
F/C, 6'8"- Michigan St.

Tillman is one of the most NBA-ready players in this draft due to his sheer strength, basketball IQ and ability to contribute to winning basketball. He will not ever be a star, but he has the chance to be a steady rotation player for years to come, and there is value in that. Especially for teams picking in the late-1st/early 2nd round. He would also be really awesome in Miami, but there isn't a realistic path for them to take him unless they reach for him at 20 or trade into the late 1st/early 2nd, so they were excluded. 

Fits: Celtics, Grizzlies, Spurs.

Boston has a gaping hole at center, and Tillman checks so many Boston boxes in terms of the style/type of players they look for. He is high-IQ, high character, plays hard and can adapt to most systems on either side of the ball. His short-roll passing in that offensive system would be a joy to watch. I have him going to Boston at 26 or 30 in just about every mock draft I've done at this point. It just makes too much sense for it not to happen. Him and Grant Williams playing together would bring me so much joy. 

Memphis may have their core bigs in Jackson Jr., and Brandon Clarke already set in stone, but adding a change of pace third big in their rotation (long-term) outside of Jonas could be a perfect marriage. Ideally Tillman is a very good third big that can serve as a spot starter and provide around 20-25 high quality minutes in the right situation. Watching him in a P&R with Ja Morant and the floor spacing bigs they have in place for Tillman to hit out of the short roll would be a pleasure. There would just be so many things for the defense to worry about when defending that.

San Antonio doesn't have much big man depth at the moment, especially considering they seem to be interested in cutting ties with LaMarcus Aldridge. Tillman would be able to carve out a significant role and help with their heap of guards in the P&R and with his passing out of the short roll. Getting a big that is NBA-ready and that can help with the development of their guards would be ideal, and they are picking 41st which is a potentially in Tillman range.

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6. Mason Jones:
G, 6'5"- Arkansas

Fits: Magic, Blazers, Grizzlies.

Mason Jones is one of the strangest prospects I've scouted in some time, as his statistics do not match the eye-test in terms of what you think he'd be or play like AT ALL. 

What I mean by that specifically is that his finishing numbers are elite and fit the profile of someone that would be a super athlete or have outlier length/strength for his height. He is not very athletic nor that strong and his wingspan doesn't jump off the page either. So what is it? Well, it comes down to mastering footwork, body-control, deceleration and change of pace. He can just flat out find ways to score by using those aforementioned traits to combat some of his deficiencies. 

Orlando will be pursuing offense this offseason, it won't be much of a secret, and adding a seasoned scorer in Jones would help right off the bat. I think he's ready for a 10-15 minutes a night type of role right off the bat. Orlando holds the 45th pick so he may not be available there, but if he is I like the fit. 

Portland needs to add as many contributors as possible in the short-term to appease Dame, and Jones fits that bill as someone that can alleviate the scoring burden on Lillard by giving them a scoring punch off the bench. Portland picks 46th so Jones would be a prime target if he's still on the board. 

Memphis could use another guard to help take some of the scoring responsibilities for the 2nd unit, and Jones would be an ideal fit with this in mind. The Grizzlies hold the 40th pick in the draft, and if Mason Jones is available at that stage of the draft, Memphis needs to give him a very serious look. 

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7. Isaiah Joe:
SG, 6'5"- Arkansas.

As a shooter, Isaiah Joe has it all. Range. Versatility. Confidence. He hits pull-ups, can hit off movement, in transition, you name it. He has the balls to launch shots from 35+ feet. It's just fun to watch him shoot and I believe playing in NBA spacing will only help with his efficiency, because the volume is certainly there. There have been 5 college freshmen to ever hit 113 threes in a season: Four of them were Steph Curry, Trae Young, Jamal Murray and the fifth: Isaiah Joe. (via Jonathan Wasserman). 

Fits: Warriors, Nets, Lakers

Golden State likes to shoot. Isaiah Joe likes to shoot. The Warriors have two of the greatest shooters in NBA history on their roster, and the gravity they command would give Isaiah Joe some looks he wouldn't dream of getting during his career at Arkansas due to the optimal floor-spacing. Playing in this system would essentially set him free on the 2nd unit to provide a spark and if they ran a Steph/Joe/Klay trio it would give teams headaches on the defensive end of the floor. 

Brooklyn is set to contend next season and what's one thing every contender needs around their star players? Shooters! Joe has the chance to be a special shooter on a high-volume at the next level, and would be able to provide his skill from day one. Stepping on the floor with Irving and Durant, there figures to be plenty of clean looks for him that he would be able to capitalize on. The Nets pick 19th and 55th in this upcoming draft, and those picks may just be too soon (19) or too late (55) to draft him, but if he's there at 55 they need to take him and run.

Los Angeles should be poised to add shooters that are ready to contribute right away, and this is where Isaiah Joe comes into play much like Desmond Bane who I linked to them earlier. The Lakers could lose KCP this offseason, so adding someone like Joe to replace his shooting would be beneficial to them in the short and long term. 

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8. Yam Madar:
PG, 6'3"- Hapoel Tel Aviv. 

Madar is someone I've thought looks to be draftable for a while now, and my friend Spencer Pearlman got me on to him more recently and I can say with confidence now he should be a top 50 guy in this class. He plays hard as hell on the defensive side of the ball, and has shown some promising playmaking ability and his handle is very underrated/not talked about enough amongst the draft community. If he puts it all together it's not far fetched to believe he could wind up being a top 20 player in this entire draft. 

Fits: Thunder, Pelicans, Wizards

Oklahoma City is likely going to move on from Chris Paul and enter an all-out rebuild, so that likely moves Dennis Schroeder (expiring contract) into the starting lineup next to SGA and gives them a hole to fill for the backup PG spot. Madar is someone that may not ever develop into a starting point guard, but he could be a damn good backup that serves as a spot starter which there is value in at the point of where he's projected to go (late 2nd).

New Orleans has a trio of second round picks at 39, 42 and 60, so Madar surely has to be someone on their radar as a potential draft and stash since they likely won't be adding 4 rookies to their roster (including their 13th pick). The Pelicans do have a need for additional guard depth as well, so this fit makes sense of multiple levels. 

Washington could use a point guard of the future if they don't select one with their 9th overall pick, and Yam Madar with pick 37 would make a ton of sense as a potential draft and stash. The John Wall situation will give them the time to be patient with a stash for their 2nd round pick, so someone like Yam could be an ideal pick that doesn't take up a roster spot right away and develops overseas so by the time Wall's deal is up or he's moved, Madar will be ready to contribute. 

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9. Sam Merrill:
G, 6'5"- Utah State.

Merrill was one of the best floor spacers/scorers in college basketball last season on a team that gave him very little room to operate with due to their poor team shooting. His success offensively in spite of that shows he's got a chance to be outlier good in an off-ball role as a secondary creator/floor spacer off the bench in the NBA. 

Merrill has been one of my favorite 2nd round targets for quite some time now, and I believe he will have a chance to stick in the NBA due to his elite floor spacing. 

Fits: Pelicans, Bucks, Kings

New Orleans must continue to add floor spacing around Zion and Ingram, and Merrill would be a nice late 2nd round pick to find a bench contributor that can space the floor with the best of them. Getting to learn from JJ Redick for a year would be marvelous for his development, as he could teach him all of the off-ball movement tricks in his book as he's mastered them. 

Milwaukee has to continue to add as much spacing as possible around Giannis, and landing a seasoned (college) veteran that is ready to step into a role right away would be ideal for a team looking to please their star as soon as they possibly can before he hits the open market in 2021. The Bucks only hold the 24th pick in this draft, and they won't be taking him there, but if Merrill goes undrafted, they need to get on the line with his agent immediately. 

Sacramento will have to worry about the restricted free agency status of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield's situation that could escalate to a scenario where they potentially move him (Buddy) based off what they do with Bogdan. The Kings hold three 2nd round picks this year, so Merrill could be someone on their radar as an insurance piece for whatever unfolds with their shooting guard situation. 

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10. Trent Forrest:
G, 6'4"- Florida State.

Forrest has leaped into my top 50 due to his menacing defensive presence and his ability to finish and thrive in transition. He is a limited offensive player, but the value I believe he will add defensively will make him a useful rotation player for years to come with his ability to guard 1-3. Florida State's defense was ferocious last season in large part due to the front-line, where Forrest was a staple that made the likes of Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams look as good as they did on that end. Defensive enhancer is the role I'd assign him. Everything starts at the top. 

Fits: Rockets, TWolves, Clippers

Houston has James Harden. Houston needs guards that compliment James Harden. Harden needs the ball. Forrest does not. He can also guard multiple positions and offer a bit of tenacity that the Rockets seem to love in their players. If he goes undrafted Houston needs to get on the phone with Trent's agent immediately. 

Minnesota could use a player like Forrest to plug next to D'Angelo Russell to assign to the tougher defensive assignments and create havoc with his defensive acumen. At this point, it seems likely he goes undrafted or late 2nd round, and if he is indeed a UDFA, Minnesota should definitely look to invest in him.

Los Angeles loves tough-minded guards that bring intensity on the defensive side of the floor, so it's easy to see them trying to sign Forrest to a two-way contract or giving him a camp invite if he goes undrafted. 

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Super Sleeper UDFA Bonus Quick Hits:
Below are three prospects I've really grown on as top-tier UDFA targets.

11. Freddie Gillsepie:
F/C, 6'9"- Baylor.

Gillespie has grown into one of my favorite UDFA targets after watching a bit more Baylor after Butler and Teague decided to return. He was the anchor of one of the country's best defenses, and should be able to provide defensive value at the next level. He could be a solid backup defensive-minded center in the NBA for a long time. 

Fits: Suns, Hornets, Cavs, Warriors

12. Christian Vital:
G, 6'2"- UConn

Vital was one of the most underrated defenders in the country last season at UConn. I have him ranked above the likes of Ashton Hagins, Payton Pritchard, and a few other notable guards in that back-end of the 2nd round range. He is a defensive playmaker, a plus rebounder and has shown the ability to score a bit was well. His size will limit some of that defensive impact, and the threshold is sky-high for guards to hit defensively, but I think he can carve out a reserve role in the league if he lands in the right spot. 

Fits: Pistons, Clippers, Hawks, Suns

13. De'Riante Jenkins:
G, 6'5"- VCU

Jenkins was one of only 3 players in college basketball with a STL rate over 4%, BLK rate over 1% and BPM over 5. His wingspan is listed at 7 feet, which is wild and goes to show why he's so disruptive defensively. He has the tools and the instincts on that side of the ball to be a difference-maker. He's someone that may not stick in the league, but if he does it'll be because a team like Indiana brings him in and does Indiana stuff to him and makes him a valuable 8th/9th man off the bench like they've done with players similar to his archetype in the past. I'd take a shot on him with a two-way contract for sure. 

Fits: Pacers, Thunder, Grizzlies, Nuggets

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The Most Honorable Mention: Nate Hinton, G/W, 6'5"- Houston
Team fits: NBA

I excluded him from the list because I feel like he fits on almost every team given his skill set. He is a low maintenance role player that plays with a high motor on both sides of the floor. His defense is intense, and he is a rebounding magnet averaging 8.7 rebounds per game standing at just 6'5" (listed 6'6" on some sites). He has a 6'9" wingspan and is built well for his size, so I expect him to be able to guard positions 1-3 and offer defensive flexibility along with his menacing approach to the glass. He is a top 40 guy for me at the moment, and someone that absolutely deserves to be drafted. 

[bwgood77]

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?s=09

No one would have believed it before the season if you were told that Nico Mannion would be the 3rd AZ guy drafted. Heck, he's not even listed in the first round. Then the other preseason high ranked PG who tumbled, Cole Anthony, going to Denver at 22. Almost seems par for the course and like a pick they'd make if he drops like that. I remember wondering if the Suns would take Porter at 16 if he kept falling before the Nuggets took him at 16 (and of course the Suns ended up trading for Bridges).

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

?s=09

Looks like that guy has been reading realgm and your posts to help him out with his draft coverage.

[suns12345]

Having a GM who actually targets older players is a really bad place to be in during the draft. The trend favors the opposite as far as getting actual difference makers long-term. Vet rotation players are the easiest to find in the entire league so finding somebody who can contribute from day 1 ahead of all else is not ideal imo. Just sign a 25 year old rotation player.

Maybe... having a GM who takes Bender and Chriss in the same draft is that good either

[bwgood77]

Having a GM who actually targets older players is a really bad place to be in during the draft. The trend favors the opposite as far as getting actual difference makers long-term. Vet rotation players are the easiest to find in the entire league so finding somebody who can contribute from day 1 ahead of all else is not ideal imo. Just sign a 25 year old rotation player.

Maybe... having a GM who takes Bender and Chriss in the same draft is that good either

I think ideally they would like to find a 25 year old rotation player, but the difference makers are under contract...that is why they talk about scouting current NBA players and maybe trading the pick.

But yeah, we did have our try with raw guys in Chriss, Bender and Jackson. It's nice to see guys come in who can contribute as rookies.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

?s=09

No one would have believed it before the season if you were told that Nico Mannion would be the 3rd AZ guy drafted. Heck, he's not even listed in the first round. Then the other preseason high ranked PG who tumbled, Cole Anthony, going to Denver at 22. Almost seems par for the course and like a pick they'd make if he drops like that. I remember wondering if the Suns would take Porter at 16 if he kept falling before the Nuggets took him at 16 (and of course the Suns ended up trading for Bridges).

All in all it worked out pretty well though. But yeah, I was rooting for Porter to fall to us at 16 as well. But just kinda new some team would snatch him up right before our pick. But it pretty much worked out best case scenario for us in hindsight.

[Ghost of Kleine]

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?s=09

Looks like that guy has been reading realgm and your posts to help him out with his draft coverage.

Who really knows huh?...lol
But what I can tell you, is that he has a pretty keen eye towards the draft! And the information is a great resource, And much appreciated.