Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[Ruzious]

Watching Wiseman right now. He has played 12 minutes. 12 freaking minutes, and has 5 fouls, 5 turnovers, and is -19. Warriors built a double digit deficit before benching Wiseman completely and coming all the way back from down 19 to win.

Yup. I would certainly take him as a piece in a trade, but not the main one. The point of rookies is you (Hope) to get surplus value in years 3 & 4 of their rookie contracts and then hopefully their RFA contract as well if they really hit. But I dont see any way that is possible with him making 4/40M.

Too many FA Centers for equal or less money that are just better. Noel, Holmes, WCS, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Favors, Poetl, etc.

I mean, how much surplus value have the Suns gotten from the last generational big man in Ayton? None. Guy has been average at best and is now in his 3rd year.

Yeah, Ayton has all the tools - other than a 3 point shot, and he doesn't appear to have a major impact. So why do we think Wiseman will? The only player that size that does have a great impact is Anthony Davis - who's a generational type athlete. Wiseman's a very good athlete - but not an Anthony Davis level athlete.

[Dat2U]

Watching Wiseman right now. He has played 12 minutes. 12 freaking minutes, and has 5 fouls, 5 turnovers, and is -19. Warriors built a double digit deficit before benching Wiseman completely and coming all the way back from down 19 to win.

Yup. I would certainly take him as a piece in a trade, but not the main one. The point of rookies is you (Hope) to get surplus value in years 3 & 4 of their rookie contracts and then hopefully their RFA contract as well if they really hit. But I dont see any way that is possible with him making 4/40M.

Too many FA Centers for equal or less money that are just better. Noel, Holmes, WCS, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Favors, Poetl, etc.

I mean, how much surplus value have the Suns gotten from the last generational big man in Ayton? None. Guy has been average at best and is now in his 3rd year.

Yeah, Ayton has all the tools - other than a 3 point shot, and he doesn't appear to have a major impact. So why do we think Wiseman will? The only player that size that does have a great impact is Anthony Davis - who's a generational type athlete. Wiseman's a very good athlete - but not an Anthony Davis level athlete.

Glad to see you've all joined the darkside lol.

Were trading an elite guard so it makes sense to prioritize getting a guard/wing with upside in return vs a rim running big. There are plenty of rim running bigs available in the league. I've said from day one, Wiseman is not a unique prospect. There's no elite offensive skill and like Ayton he doesn't project as an elite defender. On the other side there are simply aren't many young guards/wings with significant upside that would be available which probably props up the value of a guy like Tyler Herro.

[nate33]

Watching Wiseman right now. He has played 12 minutes. 12 freaking minutes, and has 5 fouls, 5 turnovers, and is -19. Warriors built a double digit deficit before benching Wiseman completely and coming all the way back from down 19 to win.

Yup. I would certainly take him as a piece in a trade, but not the main one. The point of rookies is you (Hope) to get surplus value in years 3 & 4 of their rookie contracts and then hopefully their RFA contract as well if they really hit. But I dont see any way that is possible with him making 4/40M.

Too many FA Centers for equal or less money that are just better. Noel, Holmes, WCS, Zubac, Thomas Bryant, Favors, Poetl, etc.

I mean, how much surplus value have the Suns gotten from the last generational big man in Ayton? None. Guy has been average at best and is now in his 3rd year.

Excellent point about the surplus value.

You get surplus value when rookie contract guys outperform the rookie pay scale, and you get it when superstars outperform the maximum salary restriction. Wiseman, even if he pans out to be pretty good, won't outperform the rookie pay scale in a league where the MLE gets you a starting caliber big man. So the only way his acquisition is of much help is if he pans out to be a superstar who is worth more than a max contract. There are only 3 big men in the league that fit that description: Davis, Embiid and Jokic, and perhaps Gobert. Does anybody project Wiseman to reach that level?

[NatP4]

I’d take any of these over the GS package:

Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa, 2025 1st, 2027 1st

Hunter, Collins, 2021 1st

Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st, 2023 1st.

I already think Wiseman is a total bust, and 5 out of the top 10 players from the 2020 draft look like busts, 2 out of the top 3 even. Hayes looks like he’ll be out of the nba by next year. There is a chance that you come away empty handed if you trade Beal for Wiseman+Minny pick.

[nate33]

I haven't watch enough of James Wiseman to have an opinion myself. But I've heard Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo talk glowingly about him. And here is Brian Windhorst:

Watch on YouTube

Fast forward to 2:06

I'm just throwing out the Devil's advocate argument here. Wiseman definitely has the physical size and coordination to be more than merely a rim runner. His main issue is that he's too soft. It's like he doesn't recognize that he is the biggest guy on the court. Unfortunately, "soft" guys often don't ever learn to be physical.

[queridiculo]

I'm just throwing out the Devil's advocate argument here. Wiseman definitely has the physical size and coordination to be more than merely a rim runner. His main issue is that he's too soft. It's like he doesn't recognize that he is the biggest guy on the court. Unfortunately, "soft" guys often don't ever learn to be physical.

Is he a soft, or lacking confidence?

He's practically went from highschool straight to the pros, it takes those kids some time to find themselves, but if I had to bet on anybody in this draft class to be a hall of famer I'd put my money on him.

[Dat2U]

I’d take any of these over the GS package:

Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa, 2025 1st, 2027 1st

Hunter, Collins, 2021 1st

Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st, 2023 1st.

I already think Wiseman is a total bust, and 5 out of the top 10 players from the 2020 draft look like busts, 2 out of the top 3 even. Hayes looks like he’ll be out of the nba by next year. There is a chance that you come away empty handed if you trade Beal for Wiseman+Minny pick.

James Wiseman isn't a bust. I see Andre Drummond to Mitchell Robinson as his outcome given time. In this draft, that might not be terrible. Drummond is a very productive player just not an elite player or a game changing one. Robinson teases with his immense size here and there but hasn't put it together. You hope Wiseman will be more focused than Robinson has.

I'm cooling a bit on Ben Simmons after looking at his offensive decline this season but part of me says his value is falling and you could the package Houston asked for in return for Harden. Getting a slew of picks along with Maxey could make up for Simmons shortcomings.

My main issue with the Miami package was the picks being so far out. Thats why I think they need to include Duncan Robinson to make up the difference. I really do like Tyler Herro though. He strikes me as the best pure shooter/shot creator with significant untapped upside available. Like Beal in his 2nd year he has a lot of improvement to make on his ability to get all the way to the rim off thr bounce and finish but Herro compares well to a young Panda at 20/21. Devin Booker is another comparable I make. Herro's also averaging a hefty 6.7 boards which is surprising for his slight frame. Precious Achuiwa catches my eye every time I watch him. He's so damn twitchy and just flies around the place.. He makes Onyeka Okongwu look slow and uncoordinated.

Speaking of Okongwu, I would assume he'd be included in any package for Beal considering its a need.

I dont see John Collins as a realistic option to DC. He wants the max AND he'd be in the way of Hachimura who the org has alot invested into. He's also a poor defender although improving. If he was better on that end I could see it but otherwise it seems like a very expensive upgrade for a similar type of player. Maybe you send Collins off to a third team to recoup additional assets?

Could a package including DeAndre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, whatever we get for Collins & picks be enough?

[Dat2U]

I haven't watch enough of James Wiseman to have an opinion myself. But I've heard Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo talk glowingly about him. And here is Brian Windhorst:

Watch on YouTube

Fast forward to 2:06

I'm just throwing out the Devil's advocate argument here. Wiseman definitely has the physical size and coordination to be more than merely a rim runner. His main issue is that he's too soft. It's like he doesn't recognize that he is the biggest guy on the court. Unfortunately, "soft" guys often don't ever learn to be physical.

His main issue is lack of elite skill. That makes him a rim runner. The athleticism/coordination is cool and all but from what I've seen, all aspects of his offensive skill seem to be a work in progress. He can step out and hit 3s but not consistently. He can face up and blow by but his handle isn't really tight nor can he see the floor. He can post up smaller players but doesn't have a bevy moves or countermoves to rely on. Maybe he puts in work, adds skill every offseason and eventually becomes a monster at all 3 levels. That is possible. Its also very unlikely.

[nate33]

I haven't watch enough of James Wiseman to have an opinion myself. But I've heard Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo talk glowingly about him. And here is Brian Windhorst:

Watch on YouTube

Fast forward to 2:06

I'm just throwing out the Devil's advocate argument here. Wiseman definitely has the physical size and coordination to be more than merely a rim runner. His main issue is that he's too soft. It's like he doesn't recognize that he is the biggest guy on the court. Unfortunately, "soft" guys often don't ever learn to be physical.

His main issue is lack of elite skill. That makes him a rim runner. The athleticism/coordination is cool and all but from what I've seen, all aspects of his offensive skill seem to be a work in progress. He can step out and hit 3s but not consistently. He can face up and blow by but his handle isn't really tight nor can he see the floor. He can post up smaller players but doesn't have a bevy moves or countermoves to rely on. Maybe he puts in work, adds skill every offseason and eventually becomes a monster at all 3 levels. That is possible. Its also very unlikely.

He's 19 years old. He already shoots way better than rim runners like Javale McGee and Mitchell Robinson. And his footwork and ability to handle on the break shows more basketball skills than your typical rim runner.

Can he put it all together? I don't know. But I definitely think the skills he has shown hints at an upside much higher than a rim runner.

[Ruzious]

I haven't watch enough of James Wiseman to have an opinion myself. But I've heard Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo talk glowingly about him. And here is Brian Windhorst:

Watch on YouTube

Fast forward to 2:06

I'm just throwing out the Devil's advocate argument here. Wiseman definitely has the physical size and coordination to be more than merely a rim runner. His main issue is that he's too soft. It's like he doesn't recognize that he is the biggest guy on the court. Unfortunately, "soft" guys often don't ever learn to be physical.

His main issue is lack of elite skill. That makes him a rim runner. The athleticism/coordination is cool and all but from what I've seen, all aspects of his offensive skill seem to be a work in progress. He can step out and hit 3s but not consistently. He can face up and blow by but his handle isn't really tight nor can he see the floor. He can post up smaller players but doesn't have a bevy moves or countermoves to rely on. Maybe he puts in work, adds skill every offseason and eventually becomes a monster at all 3 levels. That is possible. Its also very unlikely.

I agree with that last part. He's got to have an extra gear in his work ethic to get where we'd want him to be. Giannis had that - along with a crusty veteran Middleton with great skills and a bag o tricks who showed no mercy to the kid - until the student became the teacher. With GS, the teacher has to be Draymond Green.

[DCZards]

His main issue is lack of elite skill. That makes him a rim runner. The athleticism/coordination is cool and all but from what I've seen, all aspects of his offensive skill seem to be a work in progress. He can step out and hit 3s but not consistently. He can face up and blow by but his handle isn't really tight nor can he see the floor. He can post up smaller players but doesn't have a bevy moves or countermoves to rely on. Maybe he puts in work, adds skill every offseason and eventually becomes a monster at all 3 levels. That is possible. Its also very unlikely.

Is it reasonable to expect Wiseman to have elite skills at 19 years old and in the first month of his NBA career? As you point out, he’s "a work in progress" but has already shown the ability to knock down the 3 ball, and face up and blow by defenders. A consistent 3 ball, a tighter handle and a bevy of low post moves are all things that can be developed with hard work, coaching and experience.

But Wiseman's elite size and athleticism are legit...and are things that can't be taught.

It’s going to be interesting to look back at this discussion 3-4 years from now. I'm betting that Wiseman will be an NBA all-star someday…maybe even All-NBA.

[DCsOwn]

I remember all the way back to last week when I proposed the GSW/Wash trade and some guy on here told me that it would be a terrible trade...for Golden State. Trade was purely an upside consideration for me with the Minny pick being a significant piece (perhaps the significant piece) in the deal. Love everything I've read about (and the little Ive seen of) Kuminga esp and it's not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Wizards would finish this offseason with three of the top eight picks from the past two drafts combined should they continue to flounder. Certainly not wedded to the idea of moving Beal for the GSW package, and it was an idea meant to precipitate the lively discussion that has ensued and I'm super grateful for the quality dialogue. Should note that the GSW package was always the riskiest of the bunch and I'd certainly prefer to wait to see where the Minny pick landed (and if it conveyed this season at all) prior to making that deal if that's the package Sheppard ultimately decided to go with.

[pcbothwel]

His main issue is lack of elite skill. That makes him a rim runner. The athleticism/coordination is cool and all but from what I've seen, all aspects of his offensive skill seem to be a work in progress. He can step out and hit 3s but not consistently. He can face up and blow by but his handle isn't really tight nor can he see the floor. He can post up smaller players but doesn't have a bevy moves or countermoves to rely on. Maybe he puts in work, adds skill every offseason and eventually becomes a monster at all 3 levels. That is possible. Its also very unlikely.

Is it reasonable to expect Wiseman to have elite skills at 19 years old and in the first month of his NBA career? As you point out, he’s "a work in progress" but has already shown the ability to knock down the 3 ball and face up and blow by defenders. A consistent 3 ball, a tighter handle and a bevy of low post moves are all things that can be developed with hard work, coaching and experience.

But his elite size and athleticism are legit...and can't be taught.

It’s going to be interesting to look back at this discussion 3-4 years from now. I'm betting that Wiseman will be an NBA all-star someday…maybe even All-NBA.

His awareness and hands are really bad right now. I have no doubt that he will be a decent shooter for a Big man and will gather blocks, but I dont see a great defender. The guy is shooting 25% from 3-10 feet because his touch/hands are awful

He is the absolute archetype of a player that doesnt win games and is overpaid. He provides negative value on his current contract and will be a FA by the time he even sniffs top 15 Center in the NBA.

If we want a low IQ Condor built Center that can shoot a little and protect the rim, then just trade one of the 1st from the Beal package and filler for Mo Bamba and be done with it.

[DCsOwn]

I’d take any of these over the GS package:

Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa, 2025 1st, 2027 1st

Hunter, Collins, 2021 1st

Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st, 2023 1st.

I already think Wiseman is a total bust, and 5 out of the top 10 players from the 2020 draft look like busts, 2 out of the top 3 even. Hayes looks like he’ll be out of the nba by next year. There is a chance that you come away empty handed if you trade Beal for Wiseman+Minny pick.

These are three realistic packages I think, but I will say, the Atlanta package is by far the worst of that trio imo especially considering the fact that you're trading Beal within the division. Hunter is a solid piece of course, but given that he'd be the centerpiece of that deal from a Wizards perspective, that'd be a tough deal to swallow as a fan. A solid role player, a super flawed (potential) max player (who people will be clamoring to move off of in half a season) and a lower end lottery pick (in all likelihood) for a top 15 player in the league. At least with the GState scenario you're taking a homerun cut, with the Sixers deal you're dreaming on Simmons and Maxey, and you can squint and see a potential star in Herro along with a super valuable role player in Robinson (with solid trade value on a great deal) and a talented young player.

If I'm trading with the Hawks, I'm raiding their trove of young talent in the place of Collins AND requiring substantially more draft capital. Obviously you'd have to get the money right as well, but I'm worrying about that after I get the compensation together.

[Frichuela]

I’d take any of these over the GS package:

Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa, 2025 1st, 2027 1st

Hunter, Collins, 2021 1st

Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st, 2023 1st.

I already think Wiseman is a total bust, and 5 out of the top 10 players from the 2020 draft look like busts, 2 out of the top 3 even. Hayes looks like he’ll be out of the nba by next year. There is a chance that you come away empty handed if you trade Beal for Wiseman+Minny pick.

These are three realistic packages I think, but I will say, the Atlanta package is by far the worst of that trio imo especially considering the fact that you're trading Beal within the division. Hunter is a solid piece of course, but given that he'd be the centerpiece of that deal from a Wizards perspective, that'd be a tough deal to swallow as a fan. A solid role player, a super flawed (potential) max player (who people will be clamoring to move off of in half a season) and a lower end lottery pick (in all likelihood) for a top 15 player in the league. At least with the GState scenario you're taking a homerun cut, with the Sixers deal you're dreaming on Simmons and Maxey, and you can squint and see a potential star in Herro along with a super valuable role player in Robinson (with solid trade value on a great deal) and a talented young player.

If I'm trading with the Hawks, I'm raiding their trove of young talent in the place of Collins AND requiring substantially more draft capital. Obviously you'd have to get the money right as well, but I'm worrying about that after I get the compensation together.

Of these packages I would still go for the Miami trade. Ideally I would try to flip Robinson to a 3rd party provided we can get a highish 1st round pick in 2021, ideally late lottery. Rationale: Robinson is likely to be paid a lot in the off-season and we already have Bertans and Matthews with a similar profile.

Our rotation next year would be something like:

Westbrick/1st R pick/Winston
Herro/Matthews (resigned)/Troy
Deni/1st R pick/Bonga (resigned)
Rui/Bertans
Bryant/Achiuwa

The choice of 1st round picks at PG and SF is because that’s where most of the top talent appears to be. If we get lucky and land a top 5 pick we may be able to land Cunningham or Suggs at PG. Dream on!

[Ruzious]

I’d take any of these over the GS package:

Herro, Robinson, Achiuwa, 2025 1st, 2027 1st

Hunter, Collins, 2021 1st

Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st, 2023 1st.

I already think Wiseman is a total bust, and 5 out of the top 10 players from the 2020 draft look like busts, 2 out of the top 3 even. Hayes looks like he’ll be out of the nba by next year. There is a chance that you come away empty handed if you trade Beal for Wiseman+Minny pick.

These are three realistic packages I think, but I will say, the Atlanta package is by far the worst of that trio imo especially considering the fact that you're trading Beal within the division. Hunter is a solid piece of course, but given that he'd be the centerpiece of that deal from a Wizards perspective, that'd be a tough deal to swallow as a fan. A solid role player, a super flawed (potential) max player (who people will be clamoring to move off of in half a season) and a lower end lottery pick (in all likelihood) for a top 15 player in the league. At least with the GState scenario you're taking a homerun cut, with the Sixers deal you're dreaming on Simmons and Maxey, and you can squint and see a potential star in Herro along with a super valuable role player in Robinson (with solid trade value on a great deal) and a talented young player.

If I'm trading with the Hawks, I'm raiding their trove of young talent in the place of Collins AND requiring substantially more draft capital. Obviously you'd have to get the money right as well, but I'm worrying about that after I get the compensation together.

Why would anyone consider Hunter to be the centerpiece of the Atl deal, even though I'm a big fan of Hunter's. They're basically the same age, and Collins has established himself as a high level efficient producer at both C and PF. Having said that, I agree with your conclusion. Include Okongwu instead of Collins, add some picks, and perhaps also include Huerter. And if Atl does well this season, I think they'll be happy to extend Collins.

[pcbothwel]

^ Atlanta does not have a "trove of young talent" outside of Hunter and Collins.
That said, I still think the Philly package with us moving Simmons to a 3rd team for picks the best move.

Im a big Maxey fan and think his poise, energy, hand-eye coordination and overall balance will set a high floor for him. Sixers would have Beal, Curry, and Milton... so a 6'2 combo guard like Maxey isnt really needed for them. I'd also send them a true PG like Ish to help with us taking back filler (Scott?)

New York, Minny, GSW, etc. would all love to have Simmons.
If we came out with Maxey + 4-5 picks I would be elated.

[NatP4]

What makes Wiseman a better prospect than Achiuwa at this point? And I understand that the GS proposed deal is centered moreso around the top 3-10 pick.

Achiuwa per36: 17 points 12 rebounds 2 assists 0.3 steals 0.7 blocks 2.8 turnovers.

61.5% TS

on/off differential: -2.1

Wiseman per36: 18.7 points 10.5 rebounds 0.7 assists 0.8 steals 2.7 blocks 3.1 turnovers.

52.4% TS

On/off differential: -14.9

[Ruzious]

^ Atlanta does not have a "trove of young talent" outside of Hunter and Collins.
That said, I still think the Philly package with us moving Simmons to a 3rd team for picks the best move.

Im a big Maxey fan and think his poise, energy, hand-eye coordination and overall balance will set a high floor for him. Sixers would have Beal, Curry, and Milton... so a 6'2 combo guard like Maxey isnt really needed for them. I'd also send them a true PG like Ish to help with us taking back filler (Scott?)

New York, Minny, GSW, etc. would all love to have Simmons.
If we came out with Maxey + 4-5 picks I would be elated.

If we can get a few Knicks frp's and Maxey, do it.

[nate33]

What makes Wiseman a better prospect than Achiuwa at this point? And I understand that the GS proposed deal is centered moreso around the top 3-10 pick.

Achiuwa per36: 17 points 12 rebounds 2 assists 0.3 steals 0.7 blocks 2.8 turnovers.

61.5% TS

on/off differential: -2.1

Wiseman per36: 18.7 points 10.5 rebounds 0.7 assists 0.8 steals 2.7 blocks 3.1 turnovers.

52.4% TS

On/off differential: -14.9

I like Achiuwa more than Wiseman too. The difference is a top 3-10 pick (plus possibly a #15-20 GSW pick) instead of just the one Miami pick in 2025. Also, with the Golden State deal, we don't immediately add a good player to hurt the tank. It makes our own pick likely to be a lotto pick. With the Miami deal, Herro probably helps us win enough games to land the #7 or #8 pick instead of a top 3 pick.