Krush32 wrote:NavLDO wrote:saintEscaton wrote:Reposting: His somewhat less terrible extrapolated per 40 rebound stats could be a byproduct of him merely having more avaialble misses to snare, rebound RATE measures how well a player makes the most of them. Offensive rebounding has been devalued to an all time low with the modenr era's bsession with the 3 ball, this season league average OREB% was 23% for the shooting team. He concedes more second chance opportunities on the other end than he creates and if he's a stretch 4 will be playing 20+ feet away from basket and there is a tradeoff between positioning yourself for a offensive board and giving up an easy opponent fast break. Most elite teams acknowledge this and have a markedly lower chase % percentage emphasizing the importance of transition D instead. I'm not writing off Chriss but he has some glaring concerns. His assist percentage and pure point rating both rank fourth worst among the 22 top collegiate power forwards so fora guy who is gunna demand touches and put the ball on the deck he needs to tighten his handle to be less of a turnover machine/black hole. His 8'9 standing reach/ 7'0 wingspan is fine for an SF but below average for a PF
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241983/League-Office-Reviewing-Draft-Combine-MeasurementsGuess we shouldn't draft Simmons if he falls to us either--same Height (6'10" and Wingspan of 7'0.25")
Don't you think it's a bit odd he measured the same standing Reach as he did two years ago when he was almost 1.5" shorter? Or that he measured the same height and Wingspan of Simmons, yet a 3.5" shorter Reach? These measurements are in question, so not sure why you are quoting measurements that are under extreme scrutiny right now. Chriss also recorded a 38.5" Max Vert.
Sabonis measured a Wingspan of 6'10.5", yet pulled down 11.8 Rebounds per game last year. Should he move to SF also?
Sabonis knows how to box out so no. You guys are thinking too much about numbers. Watch them play and you will see. Sabonis plays bigger than he is by being physical and eating up space. Chriss is not very physical inside and doesnt box out everytime.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj4OkHmzuFc[/youtube]
Sorry in advance--another lengthy post, but just skimming through will be enough to get the points I'm making...so with that said...
Good point. I agree. Sabonis makes up for his deficiencies, while Chriss just needs some coaching in that area. But to rule him out as a late lotto pick based upon his defensive shortcomings that can be coached up, when others undeservedly are ranked much higher at other positions, that have had time to develop their skill, and have not over 3+ years, is short-sided, IMO. I noticed how you chose not to address Dunn and his weaknesses, which are far more pronounced.
But back to Sabonis...what was his 3PT/40 his freshman season as compared to Chriss? 0.0 vs 2.8
How about Steals and Blocks per 40? 0.6 and 0.8 vs 1.5 and 2.6 But I guess Steals and Blocks are not considered "Defense" ??
But hey, let's judge Chriss on his 'poor defense' because his Defensive Rebounds are low, eh?
My issue isn't that Chriss is some how a polished, finished prospect, but there is A LOT of upside there...where's that upside with Dunn? My issue is denigrating Chriss for being a late lotto consideration, yet completely negating a top 5 prospect that has no business being there based upon over 3 years of consistently 'below-average' production. Why can Brown be considered a top 5 SF prospect, with a WS/40 of 4.5, compared to Chriss with an 8.7? OR a TS and eFG of .52 and .47 when Chriss' is .59 and .56? Or as a SF, having an even WORSE PPR of -6.47 compared to Chriss' -6.11? Or a worse FT% of 65.4% compared to Chriss' 68.5%? Why does Brown have "upside" as a top 5 pick, yet Chriss, as a late-lotto doesn't?
At least Chriss, as pointed out by saintEscaton, has positional versatility to play SF, yet Brown, shows NO possibility of playing SG.
If you read my post a few pages back about my thoughts on over-and-under-drafted prospects, I believe Sabonis will be under-drafted, if ONLY because his Wingspan is less than ideal, and he has limited range. But his production, and yes, his boxing out capability is great, and think he'll do well in the league. I only brought up Sabonis to prove a point; prospects can overcome deficiencies, ESPECIALLY those that are very young, with sub-optimal coaching.
But overall, I think if one is going to discount Chriss based upon one stat, yet are perfectly fine with others ranked higher with bigger issues, should really consider these other prospects and their issues, because quite frankly, Chriss' weaknesses pale in comparison to these others...
...then my favorite comment on how Chriss' measurements of Standing Reach of 8'9", Wingspan of 7' .25" at a height of 6'10" was 'unworthy' of being a PF, yet the #1 overall prospect, Simmons, same height, same Wingspan, but magically with a 3.5" advantage in Standing Reach some how makes sense. And let's look at another, Skal Labissierre: Height-6'11.75", Wingspan-7'2.5", Standing Reach-8'9.5"??? Are you kidding me? There's a reason why there's an ongoing investigation into these measurements. I guess Skal will have to be a SF as well, with Simmons...
...and speaking of Skal, let's look at his and Brown's RSCI--Brown RSCI=3, Skal-RSCI=2 vs Chriss' of 56, so rather than having an 'easy road' to be a lotto pick, Chriss had to earn his way there. He didn't get the benefit of the doubt of coming in with such a high RSCI; so based upon these facts, Skal and Brown deserve to be ranked higher (as they are) and get a 'pass' from scrutiny on this forum, but not Chriss...no...not the guy who outperformed Skal in, firstly, even getting on the court (24 vs 15 MPG), but then, WS/40--8.7 vs 6.1, EFF/40--23.4 vs 20.0; A/TO--.38 vs .33; TS and eFG%--.59 and .56 vs .54 and .52; 3PT%--35.7% vs 0%; 2PT%--57% vs 52.1%; Stls/40-- 1.5 vs .6; PFs/40--6.5 vs 7.6 (both very poor numbers); FT%--68.5% vs 66.1%; Total Rebounding % of team--13.5% vs 8.1%; Pts per Poss--1.22 vs 1.09
Skal has his benefits, to be sure--Blks/40--4.2 to 2.6 (yet both very good numbers); Def Reb/40--5.4 vs 4.6 (both poor numbers); PPR-- -4.54 vs -6.11 (bot poor numbers)
So on and so forth. But honestly, I spent all this time posting all this useless information, to make a couple of points:
Chriss is ranked 11th overall (RSCI 56), as compared to:
Dunn-4th (RSCI 20)
Brown-5th (RSCI 3)
Skal-9th (RSCI 2)
I value the fact that Chriss impressed enough this year to open eyes from an RSCI of 56, as did Deyonta Davis (RSCI 28), as did Jamal Murray (RSCI 45), as did Denzel Valentine (RSCI 96), and as did Buddy Hield (RSCI 111) and to be potential lotto picks after one year, yet both PFs are ranked below the above 3, even when 'out-producing' them this last season. Why??
Now Hield scares me as being a 'one-hit-wonder', and he has atrocious PPR and AT/O for a Guard, that only regressed from season to season. He had a similar to Dunn, 34ish% 3PT% before this season. So while I applaud Hield, he's a guy you need to dig a little deeper than just this season, and will likely be over-drafted based upon that one season.
But I digress...I know it looks like I'm 'banging the table' for Chriss, but I'm really not; I'm just saying don't discount an 18 YO for having poor defensive rebounding numbers, and sorry, I disagree; this is something that can be coached up in the NBA.
But yes, I'd be tempted to take Chriss over Dunn, Brown, Hield, or Skal @ 4, but I also feel that Brown's and Skal's issues CAN be fixed at the next level (Dunn and Hield are likely you get what you see). And I don't believe in taking Chriss off our board because of one defensive stat, or a poor PPR, or a BS measurement that is CLEARLY inaccurate. His range, his athleticism, his shot blocking, and his TS% are excellent.
What would you rather have: another SG, one who is a 22YO Senior with a -4.85 PPR or an 18YO PF with a -6.11 PPR? A 22YO PG with a career 69% FT% or a 19YO PF with a 68.5% FT%? A SF with a 48% 2PT% and 28% 3PT%, or a PF with a 57% 2PT% ad 3PT% of 35%, with similar upside and athleticism? I believe these to be valid questions/concerns, and I hope McD is paying attention, and is willing to look beyond on defensive stat, and look at others like Steals and Blocks.
People are either really overrating Benders defensive impact or underate Okafor & his potential defensively.
