2025 NBA DRAFT PROSPECTS

[Psubs]

Bogojlub should get lotto consideration, he's better than Ace

He looks a little more mechanical but taller. I said a taller Nikola Jovic. I think picked in the 20's makes sense.

Markovic is a year older than Ruzic but I don't know if Ruzic would make such a leap with 1 more year of development.

Tankathon seems to have them swapped to where I would have them mocked.

[RoteSchroder]

Bogojlub should get lotto consideration, he's better than Ace

He looks a little more mechanical but taller. I said a taller Nikola Jovic. I think picked in the 20's makes sense.

Markovic is a year older than Ruzic but I don't know if Ruzic would make such a leap with 1 more year of development.

Tankathon seems to have them swapped to where I would have them mocked.

He's not really a 1 on 1 player, his passing is good, so maybe a connective piece in the NBA. He has a really low vertical.

Essengue might be interesting too

[Ell Curry]

Top 6 in no order:
Kasparas
Ace
Flagg
Tre
Harper
Edgecombe

If we pick at 7, who do we take: Noa Essengue, Sorber, Queen, Bogoljub, Maluach, Fears, Demin, McNeeley

My guess is Maluach. 11 years younger than Poeltl and we have no backup, so it's not like center isn't a need. Might be similar to the Poeltl pick in that he's just seen as in that 2nd tier with Tre, Edgecombe and Ace (and maybe Jakucionis) and if nobody else is, I doubt we'd reach lower. The only thing I see us kinda looking to stay away from is a PF who isn't an elite shooter with Barnes and Mogbo here, which I guess is Queen or CMB. Boogie and Fears seem intriguing. We invested pretty heavily in Quickley (not just the solid #3 option contract we gave him, I do really think he was by far the main target in the OG trade, not Barrett) so I don't think we'd be eager to take a PG either unless he has some size to him, but if they grade Fears or Fland as a future all-star, you gotta take him and just draft size in 2026.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Khaman%20Maluach&t=Duke

9/10 games he's been very efficient on O, Duke is #1 on D, he's enormous and he's 13/16 on free throws.

Still leaves us a creator short on O, but we're in no major hurry, so we can keep exploring if Barrett can somehow become an efficient offensive player now that he's passing and with more shooting around in the form of Quickley and Dick and Walter improving, and more realistically, we do still have the 2 2026 firsts and are in good financial shape and have all our picks to overpay for that wing at some point if need be.Next year doesn't really matter, but minutes-wise if everyone is healthy, a center fits right in:

Poeltl 28 - Maluach 20
Barnes 24 - Mogbo 24
Agbaji 26 - Barrett
Dick 28 - Walter 20
Quickley 32 - Barnes 10 - Barrett 6

Feels like pretty much the right amount of minutes for everyone's development.

Maybe Mogbo minutes seem a little high, but he's been solid overall, and you'd figure that when Quickley comes back, a good forward sized defender who struggles to do a ton on O other than rebound and pass might fit better on the floor with Quickley taking 30 of the 40 minutes currently being played by Shead and Mitchell (who are at at like a 15 Usage rate, whereas Quickley will probably be around 25 or so).

I have Agbaji starting because I think Barrett and Dick probably need to be staggered for defensive reasons, wing defence is so important these days.

[RoteSchroder]

Top 6 in no order:
Kasparas
Ace
Flagg
Tre
Harper
Edgecombe

If we pick at 7, who do we take: Noa Essengue, Sorber, Queen, Bogoljub, Maluach, Fears, Demin, McNeeley

My guess is Maluach. 11 years younger than Poeltl and we have no backup, so it's not like center isn't a need. Might be similar to the Poeltl pick in that he's just seen as in that 2nd tier with Tre, Edgecombe and Ace (and maybe Jakucionis) and if nobody else is, I doubt we'd reach lower. The only thing I see us kinda looking to stay away from is a PF who isn't an elite shooter with Barnes and Mogbo here, which I guess is Queen or CMB. Boogie and Fears seem intriguing. We invested pretty heavily in Quickley (not just the solid #3 option contract we gave him, I do really think he was by far the main target in the OG trade, not Barrett) so I don't think we'd be eager to take a PG either unless he has some size to him, but if they grade Fears or Fland as a future all-star, you gotta take him and just draft size in 2026.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Khaman%20Maluach&t=Duke

9/10 games he's been very efficient on O, Duke is #1 on D, he's enormous and he's 13/16 on free throws.

Still leaves us a creator short on O, but we're in no major hurry, so we can keep exploring if Barrett can somehow become an efficient offensive player now that he's passing and with more shooting around in the form of Quickley and Dick and Walter improving, and more realistically, we do still have the 2 2026 firsts and are in good financial shape and have all our picks to overpay for that wing at some point if need be.Next year doesn't really matter, but minutes-wise if everyone is healthy, a center fits right in:

Poeltl 28 - Maluach 20
Barnes 24 - Mogbo 24
Agbaji 26 - Barrett
Dick 28 - Walter 20
Quickley 32 - Barnes 10 - Barrett 6

Feels like pretty much the right amount of minutes for everyone's development.

Maybe Mogbo minutes seem a little high, but he's been solid overall, and you'd figure that when Quickley comes back, a good forward sized defender who struggles to do a ton on O other than rebound and pass might fit better on the floor with Quickley taking 30 of the 40 minutes currently being played by Shead and Mitchell (who are at at like a 15 Usage rate, whereas Quickley will probably be around 25 or so).

I have Agbaji starting because I think Barrett and Dick probably need to be staggered for defensive reasons, wing defence is so important these days.

I do like Fland, but unless he's in the CP3, Kyrie Irving or even Mike Conley mold of players, I would pass on a 6'2 (or shorter) PG in the top 10 of this draft.

Main reason I'm hesitant on Maluach is cause he has a pretty poor shot blocking rate and mediocre rebound rate for someone of his archetype. At the same time, he's still a bit behind on other parts of his game.

It seems to me that around #7 is where we stop getting the "decent floor, high upside" prospects. Maybe Bailey drops from the top 6, but Queen/Sorber prove their worth.

[Psubs]

I do like Fland, but unless he's in the CP3, Kyrie Irving or even Mike Conley mold of players, I would pass on a 6'2 (or shorter) PG in the top 10 of this draft.

Main reason I'm hesitant on Maluach is cause he has a pretty poor shot blocking rate and mediocre rebound rate for someone of his archetype. At the same time, he's still a bit behind on other parts of his game.

It seems to me that around #7 is where we stop getting the "decent floor, high upside" prospects. Maybe Bailey drops from the top 6, but Queen/Sorber prove their worth.

Imagine Chomche playing on Duke, how active he would be beside Flagg.

Heeeeey, Chomche is STILL 18 for 2 more weeks; that's Freshman aged.

[Reeko]

Top 6 in no order:
Kasparas
Ace
Flagg
Tre
Harper
Edgecombe

If we pick at 7, who do we take: Noa Essengue, Sorber, Queen, Bogoljub, Maluach, Fears, Demin, McNeeley

My guess is Maluach. 11 years younger than Poeltl and we have no backup, so it's not like center isn't a need. Might be similar to the Poeltl pick in that he's just seen as in that 2nd tier with Tre, Edgecombe and Ace (and maybe Jakucionis) and if nobody else is, I doubt we'd reach lower. The only thing I see us kinda looking to stay away from is a PF who isn't an elite shooter with Barnes and Mogbo here, which I guess is Queen or CMB. Boogie and Fears seem intriguing. We invested pretty heavily in Quickley (not just the solid #3 option contract we gave him, I do really think he was by far the main target in the OG trade, not Barrett) so I don't think we'd be eager to take a PG either unless he has some size to him, but if they grade Fears or Fland as a future all-star, you gotta take him and just draft size in 2026.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Khaman%20Maluach&t=Duke

9/10 games he's been very efficient on O, Duke is #1 on D, he's enormous and he's 13/16 on free throws.

Still leaves us a creator short on O, but we're in no major hurry, so we can keep exploring if Barrett can somehow become an efficient offensive player now that he's passing and with more shooting around in the form of Quickley and Dick and Walter improving, and more realistically, we do still have the 2 2026 firsts and are in good financial shape and have all our picks to overpay for that wing at some point if need be.Next year doesn't really matter, but minutes-wise if everyone is healthy, a center fits right in:

Poeltl 28 - Maluach 20
Barnes 24 - Mogbo 24
Agbaji 26 - Barrett
Dick 28 - Walter 20
Quickley 32 - Barnes 10 - Barrett 6

Feels like pretty much the right amount of minutes for everyone's development.

Maybe Mogbo minutes seem a little high, but he's been solid overall, and you'd figure that when Quickley comes back, a good forward sized defender who struggles to do a ton on O other than rebound and pass might fit better on the floor with Quickley taking 30 of the 40 minutes currently being played by Shead and Mitchell (who are at at like a 15 Usage rate, whereas Quickley will probably be around 25 or so).

I have Agbaji starting because I think Barrett and Dick probably need to be staggered for defensive reasons, wing defence is so important these days.

I do like Fland, but unless he's in the CP3, Kyrie Irving or even Mike Conley mold of players, I would pass on a 6'2 (or shorter) PG in the top 10 of this draft.

Main reason I'm hesitant on Maluach is cause he has a pretty poor shot blocking rate and mediocre rebound rate for someone of his archetype. At the same time, he's still a bit behind on other parts of his game.

It seems to me that around #7 is where we stop getting the "decent floor, high upside" prospects. Maybe Bailey drops from the top 6, but Queen/Sorber prove their worth.

Wouldn't be surprised if we took CMB if we were to fall out of the top 5.

[Son Goku 25]

Give me Queen, i wonder if he'll still grow a bit.

He's got that high IQ and skill we need.

[Son Goku 25]

I'm excited we got options so long as we stay within top 5-7. Hopefully we come out with best player and that player helps us win multiple ships.

[Ell Curry]

Wouldn't be surprised if we took CMB if we were to fall out of the top 5.

I mean end of the day you have to go Best Player Available and CMB's stats are strong aside from the FTs, but that's not a lot of shooting with Barnes, Mogbo and a center (Poeltl for now obviously, hard to find a unicorn who can hit 3s and protect the rim).

We just got done watching a terrible team that started opening day with 7 guys whose best position is probably power forward.

I guess Barnes could play the 3, but I really think he's an ideal 4, and if he's the 3, you probably want a Markkannen or Jabari Smith type shooter at the 4.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I've got the Tankathon top 14 ranked in FTA rate

Jakucionis .582
Murray-Boyles .495
Harper .462
Queen .455
Riley .436
Flagg .383
Maluach .381
Demin .333
Edgecombe .281
Newell .271
Bailey .241
Traore .223
Knueppel .210
Johnson .207

For the most part it tracks as the jump shooters relying on their jump shot too much. Jakucionis is an outlier as a shooter and driver.

The one thing I don't agree with the above tweet I posted, was that a lower than 30+ FTr suggests a lower hit rate. In general this is usually true, but I think for guards specifically the minimum can be lower (like 20+ FTr). But for forwards and bigs it has to be 30+ FTr.

That makes sense. Where did you find the data? I haven't really looked into it individually, but I do know it generally means you're hard to play against. For reference the top NBA scorers NCAA FTr stats:

Shai .464
Banchero .366
Tatum .381
AD .602
Edwards .339
Fox .474
Lillard .519 (senior)
KD .396
Booker .223
Maxey .342
Brunson .313 (junior, higher in earlier seasons)
Towns .523
Thomas .440
Franz .306
Herro .231
Kyrie .683 (s sample)
J Brown .574
Barrett .319
Cade .390
Powell .362 (senior)
Mitchell .243 (sophomore, .300 freshman

I could keep going but I think the trend is established. So I think we see a clear 'type' with the lower FTr scoring stars. And it's interesting that all 3 were late lottery "steals." For me, looking at Newell's low FTr right now is a bit of a flag.

[tecumseh18]

Fascinating conversation. Understandable how Booker, Herro and Mitchell fell to the teens. Note that non-guard Franz is just over Jerry Lucas's .300 threshold.

Just for reference, Scottie had an FTr of .338 at Florida, with a BPM of 7.9.

Bottom line, WAY too many red flags with Bailey as a forward with a .241 FTr. He looks theoretically perfect for the Raps, but ...

[Jerry Lucas]

I've got the Tankathon top 14 ranked in FTA rate

Jakucionis .582
Murray-Boyles .495
Harper .462
Queen .455
Riley .436
Flagg .383
Maluach .381
Demin .333
Edgecombe .281
Newell .271
Bailey .241
Traore .223
Knueppel .210
Johnson .207

For the most part it tracks as the jump shooters relying on their jump shot too much. Jakucionis is an outlier as a shooter and driver.

The one thing I don't agree with the above tweet I posted, was that a lower than 30+ FTr suggests a lower hit rate. In general this is usually true, but I think for guards specifically the minimum can be lower (like 20+ FTr). But for forwards and bigs it has to be 30+ FTr.

That makes sense. Where did you find the data? I haven't really looked into it individually, but I do know it generally means you're hard to play against. For reference the top NBA scorers NCAA FTr stats:

Shai .464
Banchero .366
Tatum .381
AD .602
Edwards .339
Fox .474
Lillard .519 (senior)
KD .396
Booker .223
Maxey .342
Brunson .313 (junior, higher in earlier seasons)
Towns .523
Thomas .440
Franz .306
Herro .231
Kyrie .683 (s sample)
J Brown .574
Barrett .319
Cade .390
Powell .362 (senior)
Mitchell .243 (sophomore, .300 freshman

I could keep going but I think the trend is established. So I think we see a clear 'type' with the lower FTr scoring stars. And it's interesting that all 3 were late lottery "steals." For me, looking at Newell's low FTr right now is a bit of a flag.

I don't have any definitive proof about my observation on FTr rates for college guards, so this isn't "data" that I found. I've just noticed throughout the years that I've tracked draft prospects, numerous guards where they have a FTr between 20-30 in college, so are technically "outliers" by the 30+ FTr hit rate rule. But for forwards and bigs I've barely noticed any sub-30 FTr hits.

Also it should be specified that this isn't just for stars. As it said in the tweet I posted (with the Torvik query that had Queen on it), the 30+ FTr rule has a correlation to hit rates in general (bust vs NBA player).

Agreed with your point about Asa Newell. But I will say that it has been steadily rising. There's a good chance he ends the season above .300 FTr.

[grant101]

Bogojlub should get lotto consideration, he's better than Ace

He looks a little more mechanical but taller. I said a taller Nikola Jovic. I think picked in the 20's makes sense.

Markovic is a year older than Ruzic but I don't know if Ruzic would make such a leap with 1 more year of development.

Tankathon seems to have them swapped to where I would have them mocked.

I've been on the Markovic hype-train for a while. He's a lottery talent in my eyes, but I doubt he goes that high. He's going to be nit-picked to death cause he doesn't look the part and won't wow anyone with athleticism.

Bogoljub's got a lot more game than Ruzic and Jovic IMO. He's a little stiff-looking, but has shiftiness to his game. The man just knows how to play, and has great touch. As far as comps go, I would say a taller Kyle Anderson with better shooting, but worse defence.

If we walk away from the 2nd round with one of Bogoljub or Johann Grunloh, I'll be a happy man.

[Altern8]

Indication as per Sorber's gravity on the floor/team:

Read on Twitter

[mademan]

There's just too much to hate about Ace Bailey. If he turns out well, he turns out well and we can all eat crow. But a scorer who can only generate tough looks and hit them at an inefficient rate...cant really defend...0.6 assists/game!!!!!

Him becoming a great NBA player would be going against basically all draft trends of the past 20 years.

[Yallbecrazy]

There's just too much to hate about Ace Bailey. If he turns out well, he turns out well and we can all eat crow. But a scorer who can only generate tough looks and hit them at an inefficient rate...cant really defend...0.6 assists/game!!!!!

Him becoming a great NBA player would be going against basically all draft trends of the past 20 years.

I'm at the point where you can draft him after all the other exciting prospects are gone and there's a lot this year. No way I'm taking him before Sorber, Queen, or CMB.

[God Squad]

Harper / Kasparas
Edgecombe / Johnson
Denim / Bailey
Flagg
Maluach / Queen

That's a pretty good group to be picking from. I like Queen a lot, and am also interested in Maluach, which makes the top of the draft 9 deep for me currently.

Also liking Boogie Fland out of Arkansas and Asa Newell at Georgia from what I've seen recently.

Honestly after Flagg/Harper, I think it's pretty wide open. Not gonna be mad with anybody in the top 10 if the Raps don't luck into top 2.

Naaaah, I’d be super disappointed with Newell in particular. He just looks like a smaller Lively. An unskilled PF/C that can leap won’t do much to really raise the ceiling of the team. I like Fland but another small guard to at best battle with IQ for a starting spot but not really a franchise guard is a diminished return. Remaining in the top 8 is vitally important.

I think I like Jeremiah Fears more than Fland. Fears has slowly been moving up my nonexistent draft board.

[Psubs]

Indication as per Sorber's gravity on the floor/team:

Read on Twitter

Outside of the top 5, even if Sorber is mocked around 10 like Barnes a week before the draft, I would take him 5-10.

Hoping he grows at least 1 more inch so he can start cramming like Giannis. His floor is a better passing Thomas Bryant.

Watch on YouTube

[PhilBlackson]

Also liking Boogie Fland out of Arkansas and Asa Newell at Georgia from what I've seen recently.

Honestly after Flagg/Harper, I think it's pretty wide open. Not gonna be mad with anybody in the top 10 if the Raps don't luck into top 2.

Naaaah, I’d be super disappointed with Newell in particular. He just looks like a smaller Lively. An unskilled PF/C that can leap won’t do much to really raise the ceiling of the team. I like Fland but another small guard to at best battle with IQ for a starting spot but not really a franchise guard is a diminished return. Remaining in the top 8 is vitally important.

I think I like Jeremiah Fears more than Fland. Fears has slowly been moving up my nonexistent draft board.

Agreed...Fears at least theoretically may be able to guard 1-3. I know Fland is actually supposed to be a fairly "solid" defender because he has a good sense of anticipation in general (both offensively & defensively) but 6'2 & skinny is what it is lol. And if we're drafting him to be IQ's replacement then he'd obv be here more so for what he does offensively so he's not even gonna push himself that hard on the defensive end. But Fears also looks like if he cleans up his 3pt shot that there's a chance for him to actually be dynamic as he has a little "Kyrie" to his game.

But the only way I'm looking at any of them is if we fell outta the top 10 and personally I'd also consider Saraf as well. I'm not even sure why he seems to continue to go under the radar all year. If we're outside of the top 10, I'd prob look at Fears, Saraf or Noa then notch below that Traore or Powell. Truth is though I'd be pretty damn pissed if we fall outta the top 8 lol.

[SFour]

I'm excited we got options so long as we stay within top 5-7. Hopefully we come out with best player and that player helps us win multiple ships.

I think worst case scenario is we end up with Maluach to fill in the backup C spot....not bad but it means another tanking season is needed.