College basketball and 2017 draft - One more poll after last game

[Zelaznyrules]

My guess at McDonough's top 6: Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Fox, Isaac, Tatum.

It's as good a guess as any but I doubt that Fox is even in Ryan's top 15. He's certainly not in mine. My guess, I think his top 6 would look more like Jackson, Ball, Fultz, Tatum, Isaac and Markkanen unless Jackson flunks out when we do our due diligence in which case Miles Bridges moves into play. Unfortunately we'll probably never know although that's one tell-all book I'd actually read. I'd love to know the truth about the annual draft boards that we spend so much time speculating about.

[Christine-In-AZ]

Or is it still Philly's time? Or is it LA's, again?

I make this statement in reference to the fact that there's a roughly 20% chance of Philly having two picks in the top 4.

Spoiler:

... Would have been us. Must. Not. Think about it.

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

[Christine-In-AZ]

My Suns big board (pre NBA combine)

1.Fultz
2.Jackson
3.Fox
4.Ntilikina
5.Smith Jr.
6.Monk
7.Tatum
8.Ball
9.Isaac
10.Anunoby
11.Markkanen
12.Bridges

If the Suns end up at #3 (or maybe even #2), I'd hope they can find a way to either trade down (via Ball envy) for an additional pick or add a pick using 2018 1st+ so they can come away with combos of either Ntilikina & Anunoby at like #7 and #13? or Jackson & Ntilikina at #3 and #7?

If they land Fultz, shop Bledsoe. If the rookie PG is Fox or Ntilikina, employ more patience in regards to Bled.

[Saberestar]

I prefer Ball at #2 right now, for what I have seen he has terrific court vision, 3p shot and leaping ability.

Those three skills do not come along together too many times, so I think that he is gonna be an special player.

Some people are comparing him to Marshall. He is way different.

Kendall Marshall was a terrible athlete, similar to Dudley in that regard.
Ball is just on another level, it is not even close.

Ball runs the floor with or without the ball like a gazelle. Marshall was like an sloth.

I am not a fan of Ball, but I just do not see huge upside on the prospects from this draft.

I like Tatum as a faceup PF, but we have Chriss and Bender there.

I really like Miles Bridges too.

[sunsbum]

My Suns big board (pre NBA combine)

1.Fultz
2.Jackson
3.Fox
4.Ntilikina
5.Smith Jr.
6.Monk
7.Tatum
8.Ball
9.Isaac
10.Anunoby
11.Markkanen
12.Bridges

If the Suns end up at #3 (or maybe even #2), I'd hope they can find a way to either trade down (via Ball envy) for an additional pick or add a pick using 2018 1st+ so they can come away with combos of either Ntilikina & Anunoby at like #7 and #13? or Jackson & Ntilikina at #3 and #7?

If they land Fultz, shop Bledsoe. If the rookie PG is Fox or Ntilikina, employ more patience in regards to Bled.

Come on. You have Ntilikina over Ball, Tatum and Smith? My question to everyone is why would we draft Jackson when we have Warren, Bender and Dudley? Getting a guy like Jackson is going to prohibit Bender from developing being that JJ seems to be a bit more ready and would surely get Benders PT.

[Saberestar]

My question to everyone is why would we draft Jackson when we have Warren, Bender and Dudley? Getting a guy like Jackson is going to prohibit Bender from developing being that JJ seems to be a bit more ready and would surely get Benders PT.

Bender is a PF, and probably with more strength can play even C in the next future.

He is 7'1 and the league is playing faster than ever. I do not think he is gonna play SF, he is agile but not THAT agile.

Dudley is a stretch PF, he is not playing SF anymore. And he is gonna play just an small role coming from the bench and a mentoring role,....probably not even on the rotation next season.

He is not a factor about who are we gonna select in the draft.

[sunsbum]

Spoiler:

No, you'd be really hard pressed to find anyone that wouldn't take Ball top 10 and this is a very talented top 10. Nobody "hates" him. The argument comes about when he's sometimes described as simply amazing or something to the effect of a "once in a 10 year talent". I have major questions about his game translating into him becoming an NBA star...like top 12-15 star, still I'd be surprised if he doesn't become at a minimum a very solid (unique) NBA player...talkin' like in the top 25 to 50 range. I have him at about #8 on my board right now. If that qualifies as hate, I plead guilty.

Hatin' Dave King from BSotS has him at #5 and here's some of what he wrote yesterday if you missed it-

Lonzo Ball is a unicorn in that people can imagine this incredibly good long-range shooter, Nash-like distributor and stifling defender all in one. Something that just doesn’t exist quite this way in the NBA in its current form. But I honestly don’t see it getting that good for him.

To me, he’s Jason Kidd or Ricky Rubio, but without the defense (doesn’t slide well on D), has zero offensive game besides long threes and layups/dunks. Even and those areas are suspect - some think he’ll have trouble getting the jumper off in the NBA, and in the paint he doesn’t take contact well. This might be harsh, but in my opinion he's more a rich man’s Kendall Marshall.

Fit in Phoenix: Sigh. I think the Suns would be hard-pressed to not take Ball if he’s on the board with their pick, no matter where the pick lands after the lottery. So he might end up next to Booker in one of the most porous back courts in memory.

Like with Fultz, you’d have to trade Eric Bledsoe to fit him in to Phoenix as the starter where he belongs. He’s got star power and the offense would hum. But I personally would pass. I just can’t get on the Ball hype train. His game reminds me way too much of Ricky Rubio, yet Rubio can at least play super defense. I know I’m jaded. I had a bad experience trying to be a fan of Kendall Marshall, who also had supreme confidence in himself, but couldn’t get his shot off in the NBA, couldn’t keep up defensively and had a super-fan dad who didn’t help matters.

Likelihood: I’m going to frustrate some people and say 5% chance, if BSotS has a say in it. I’d only take Ball if Fultz and Josh Jackson are off the board. And I’d take the whole 15 minutes deciding between him, Isaac, Tatum and even D’Aaron Fox.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/3/22/14676024/top-5-prospects-fit-phoenix-suns-fultz-ball-jackson-tatum-isaac

Sounds like Dave King has been reading gaspar's posts here. I'm pretty sure he compared him to Kendall Marshall weeks ago.

So you're saying you'd be surprised if he didn't become a top 25 or 50 player in the entire NBA but he's #8 on your board? I know this is a strong draft, but wow, you figure 7 other guys will be top 25 players in the league?

I'as sayin' top 25 to 50 NBA ranking ...probably only 5 or 6 of those I have ahead of Ball end up being in the top 50 in the next decade, but I also think Ball and the Suns (Sarver/McDonough) could be a match made in hell from a psychographic POV...boom! He drops 2 spots just in that analysis for me.

It blows my mind that people are comparing Ball to Kendall Marshall, especially a guy that writes about basketball for a living. Ball is faster, more athletic, a better shooter, better passer. Even on the defensive side Ball is going to give you some weak side shot blocking and more steals. Right now he's not great man to man but why cant he improve? Another problem I have is this statement "Zero offensive game besides long threes, layups and dunks" Uhh what? 73% 2pt shots and 41% 3's more than enough to work with coming out of college. Again, I'm not sure why he cant improve his midrange game, even if its adding a floater.

As someone said earlier, Ball is going to make every single player around him better Warren/Chriss and Booker specifically. There aren't many players that can do that in the NBA right now. Iv'e also heard a weird argument that he wont be able to get his shot off in the leauge but is'nt the spacing much better than college? Personally I haven't seen him have a problem launching threes but it still gets brought up, almost like people are looking for reasons to pick his game apart.

I couldn't disagree more with the Dave King article and comparing him to KBUTTA is borderline hot trash.

[Christine-In-AZ]

My Suns big board (pre NBA combine)

1.Fultz
2.Jackson
3.Fox
4.Ntilikina
5.Smith Jr.
6.Monk
7.Tatum
8.Ball
9.Isaac
10.Anunoby
11.Markkanen
12.Bridges

If the Suns end up at #3 (or maybe even #2), I'd hope they can find a way to either trade down (via Ball envy) for an additional pick or add a pick using 2018 1st+ so they can come away with combos of either Ntilikina & Anunoby at like #7 and #13? or Jackson & Ntilikina at #3 and #7?

If they land Fultz, shop Bledsoe. If the rookie PG is Fox or Ntilikina, employ more patience in regards to Bled.

Come on. You have Ntilikina over Ball, Tatum and Smith? My question to everyone is why would we draft Jackson when we have Warren, Bender and Dudley? Getting a guy like Jackson is going to prohibit Bender from developing being that JJ seems to be a bit more ready and would surely get Benders PT.

Jackson is a SF/SG. Bender is a 4 and a sometimes 5 to come. Suns need defense anywhere, everywhere on the court.

I've voiced a ton about my concerns with Ball already. He does some things fantastically. He does other things rather poorly if grading on a "top 10" curve. And some things I'd expect to see from a point guard he seems to simply opt out of attempting altogether.

Tatum doesn't fill a need...creates a log jam if anything. He's going to be very good, TJ Warren good. It'll be difficult for him to move the Suns build story forward considering the bricks already in place.

I like Smith, but do have questions about his BBIQ and defensive want-with-all. Knee injury is a small negative.

Ntilikina is tall- 6'5", very long armed and only 18.7 yo. Probably still growing, and has tremendous potential as a perimeter defender. The Suns need defense, badly. He plays very smart already. A pass first point guard. Again...defense. Yeah, I have Frank unusually high, but he just checks off more boxes for me than Ball or Smith at the PG position. Have I mention defense yet?

[sunsbum]

My question to everyone is why would we draft Jackson when we have Warren, Bender and Dudley? Getting a guy like Jackson is going to prohibit Bender from developing being that JJ seems to be a bit more ready and would surely get Benders PT.

Bender is a PF, and probably with more strength can play even C in the next future.

He is 7'1 and the league is playing faster than ever. I do not think he is gonna play SF, he is agile but not THAT agile.

Dudley is a stretch PF, he is not playing SF anymore. And he is gonna play just an small role coming from the bench and a mentoring role,....probably not even on the rotation next season.

He is not a factor about who are we gonna select in the draft.

I guess you're right, I didn't realize they played him at center so much. I went back and watched some highlight reals and he was playing SF - 10% PF - 40% C - 50%.

[Christine-In-AZ]

Another problem I have is this statement "Zero offensive game besides long threes, layups and dunks" Uhh what? 73% 2pt shots and 41% 3's more than enough to work with coming out of college. Again, I'm not sure why he cant improve his midrange game, even if its adding a floater.

Yes he shot a high percentage on 2pt shots, but he only attempted about 30 the entire regular season outside the rim and inside the arc...and only one pull up jumper going to his right. One.

Read on Twitter

Again, this mid-range "gap" is a pretty big concern I have in his game, but I also have him 8th on my board, so...

[sunsbum]

Another problem I have is this statement "Zero offensive game besides long threes, layups and dunks" Uhh what? 73% 2pt shots and 41% 3's more than enough to work with coming out of college. Again, I'm not sure why he cant improve his midrange game, even if its adding a floater.

Yes he shot a high percentage on 2pt shots, but he only attempted about 30 the entire regular season outside the rim and inside the arc...and only one pull up jumper going to his right. One.

Read on Twitter

Again, this mid-range "gap" is a pretty big concern I have in his game, but I also have him 8th on my board, so...

Yea, I know he doesn't take midrange jumpers and that was why his 2pt % was as high as it is which is why I suggested adding a midrange floater instead of his awkward pops off a screen. I know he doesn't like much contact as well so a Joe Johnson/Tony Parker teardrop floater would be deadly for him. I understand peoples concern, I just don't think hes going to be the same exact player he is when he gets drafted as he will be 2 or 3 years down the line. Look how much better the team has been with Ulis slinging passes to everyone.

[SC923]

My guess at McDonough's top 6: Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Fox, Isaac, Tatum.

It's as good a guess as any but I doubt that Fox is even in Ryan's top 15. He's certainly not in mine. My guess, I think his top 6 would look more like Jackson, Ball, Fultz, Tatum, Isaac and Markkanen unless Jackson flunks out when we do our due diligence in which case Miles Bridges moves into play. Unfortunately we'll probably never know although that's one tell-all book I'd actually read. I'd love to know the truth about the annual draft boards that we spend so much time speculating about.

I cant see us taking another 4 in Lauri, let alone one who streches the floor and cant protect the rim

[Christine-In-AZ]

Yea, I know he doesn't take midrange jumpers and that was why his 2pt % was as high as it is which is why I suggested adding a midrange floater instead of his awkward pops off a screen. I know he doesn't like much contact as well so a Joe Johnson/Tony Parker teardrop floater would be deadly for him. I understand peoples concern, I just don't think hes going to be the same exact player he is when he gets drafted as he will be 2 or 3 years down the line. Look how much better the team has been with Ulis slinging passes to everyone.

I totally agree with you that he will evolve when he gets to the NBA, and it wouldn't shock me if he turns into quite the PG...and the Suns do have the right parts to enable him at pulling it off. Still, I'll be scared if the Suns pick him. You mention Ulis as an analogue, but what Ulis does in terms of passing is very different than what I've seen from Ball. Tyler at least probes the defense, gets in the lane with his dribble to try and create openings for assists. Maybe I just missed the games where Ball did the probing, use your handle, draw the defense PG thing, but I never saw it.

Just to finish the mid-range shooting thing- Ball shot 343 FGs, 35.9% at the rim, 56.6% beyond the arc, 7.6% mid-range. His percentage on 2 pt jumpers was 46.2%
http://hoop-math.com/UCLA2017.php

[bhawk]

2017 is the year of the Point Guard. Fultz, Ball, Smith, Fox and Frank. 5 deep and they are arguably as talented as any point guard drafted in the last 10 years.

2018 is the year of the BIG. Porter, Ayton, Bamba, Carter, Robert Williams, McCoy and even Mitchell Robinson looked good in the McDonalds game.

It is pretty clear that McD is going either Point Guard or SF giving Chriss and Bender another year to develop. If those 2 don't develop (the jury is still out)... then we will be having this SAME tanking conversation 12 months from now about the depth of the 2018 BIGS.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

[sunsbum]

Yea, I know he doesn't take midrange jumpers and that was why his 2pt % was as high as it is which is why I suggested adding a midrange floater instead of his awkward pops off a screen. I know he doesn't like much contact as well so a Joe Johnson/Tony Parker teardrop floater would be deadly for him. I understand peoples concern, I just don't think hes going to be the same exact player he is when he gets drafted as he will be 2 or 3 years down the line. Look how much better the team has been with Ulis slinging passes to everyone.

I totally agree with you that he will evolve when he gets to the NBA, and it wouldn't shock me if he turns into quite the PG...and the Suns do have the right parts to enable him at pulling it off. Still, I'll be scared if the Suns pick him. You mention Ulis as an analogue, but what Ulis does in terms of passing is very different than what I've seen from Ball. Tyler at least probes the defense, gets in the lane with his dribble to try and create openings for assists. Maybe I just missed the games where Ball did the probing, use your handle, draw the defense PG thing, but I never saw it.

Just to finish the mid-range shooting thing- Ball shot 343 FGs, 35.9% at the rim, 56.6% beyond the arc, 7.6% mid-range. His percentage on 2 pt jumpers was 46.2%
http://hoop-math.com/UCLA2017.php

You are right about Ulis, and I would guess when some pick and roll plays need to be ran you will see Booker handle that duty while Ball would slide to the 2 for the moment(s) as we've seen from Tyler.

[sunsbum]

Also, I was watching a bit of Jayson Tatum highlights and it hit me who his game reminds me of. Paul Pierce. Anyone see that?
Edit: just looked up their comparisons per 40 in college and they are eerily similar except PP shot worse from the field and 3pt when he was a freshman. I'd link the stats but I don't really know how w/o making it look like a word finder puzzle.

[RaisingArizona]

My guess at McDonough's top 6: Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Fox, Isaac, Tatum.

It's as good a guess as any but I doubt that Fox is even in Ryan's top 15. He's certainly not in mine. My guess, I think his top 6 would look more like Jackson, Ball, Fultz, Tatum, Isaac and Markkanen unless Jackson flunks out when we do our due diligence in which case Miles Bridges moves into play. Unfortunately we'll probably never know although that's one tell-all book I'd actually read. I'd love to know the truth about the annual draft boards that we spend so much time speculating about.

I cant see us taking another 4 in Lauri, let alone one who streches the floor and cant protect the rim

This.

[Zelaznyrules]

My guess at McDonough's top 6: Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Fox, Isaac, Tatum.

It's as good a guess as any but I doubt that Fox is even in Ryan's top 15. He's certainly not in mine. My guess, I think his top 6 would look more like Jackson, Ball, Fultz, Tatum, Isaac and Markkanen unless Jackson flunks out when we do our due diligence in which case Miles Bridges moves into play. Unfortunately we'll probably never know although that's one tell-all book I'd actually read. I'd love to know the truth about the annual draft boards that we spend so much time speculating about.

I cant see us taking another 4 in Lauri, let alone one who streches the floor and cant protect the rim

That certainly seems to be the consensus around here and you guys may well be right. And you're clearly right in that Markkanen is never going to be much of a rim protector, he has, at best, average arm length for his size and he's mostly nailed to the floor. But I do believe he'll be a pretty good defender on the block, something I have small hopes for when it comes to Bender or Chriss. And like I said, those two guys can help cover Lauri's deficiencies at the rim. I just think he's going to be a very special player in so many other areas that Ryan will be hard pressed to pass on him if our top prospects are gone. Isaac, IMO, is at least as much a risk as Lauri and while he's far more athletic, I don't see his ceiling being any higher than that of the Finn.

[Walt_Uoob]

Here's a wacky idea to get Josh Jackson and our PG of the future without having to make a trade: draft Josh Jackson and groom him to play point! There are probably reasons this is a stupid idea, but the fact that Giannis, Ben Simmons, and even Stanley Johnson have all been tried or talked about as PGs makes me wonder if Jackson and his court vision and ability to guard multiple positions could similarly break the mold. To those of you who know much more than I do, is that just totally wrong-headed?

[Zelaznyrules]

Here's a wacky idea to get Josh Jackson and our PG of the future without having to make a trade: draft Josh Jackson and groom him to play point! There are probably reasons this is a stupid idea, but the fact that Giannis, Ben Simmons, and even Stanley Johnson have all been tried or talked about as PGs makes me wonder if Jackson and his court vision and ability to guard multiple positions could similarly break the mold. To those of you who know much more than I do, is that just totally wrong-headed?

It might work if he can become a consistent threat from the 3. Even if it doesn't, those kind of skills would probably take a lot of the pressure off of Ulis or whoever is running the offense just as Grant Hill did for Barbosa and Dragic 7 or 8 years ago. I don't think it's a bad thing at all to have PG type skills at the 1, 2 and 3. Even Bender brings some of those skills to the game.