Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[dice]

On a the surface, that makes perfect sense. But that’s not really how pricing generally works. It tends to be more cost driven….unfortunately.

inflation is 3%. are the costs of putting on a game really anticipated to be up anywhere close to 10%?

Inflation is at 3%? According to who? The government? Which has lied about everything for over 50 years. The CPI is worthless. It has been manipulated beyond recognition. For more accurate data try "Shadow Stats". Real inflation, measuring the things you actually have to buy, like food, insurance, health care, etc. is at least 10%. Our auto insurance rose 17% last year and we haven't had an accident in 20 years. We just renewed our home owners insurance. Up just under 24% year over year. We're running $2 Trillion Dollar deficits. That's what is causing inflation. And it's far higher than 3%.

good grief

if deficits caused inflation, we wouldn't have had 40 years of low inflation WHILE THE DEBT WAS SKYROCKETING. in fact, inflation came way DOWN under reagan as he kickstarted the era of large deficits. inflation skyrocketed in the late '70s/early '80s despite level deficits. there is simply not a big correlation

so the government is lying and financial institutions are just silently going along with it? 30 yr mortgage rates are around 7% and lenders need to turn a profit over a long period of time. they are obviously banking on (pardon the pun) long-term inflation being substantially lower than the rate they are charging



the long con?

food and energy costs have officially increased less than 3% from a year ago. that jives with my experience. only eggs are way up, and that's obviously temporary. my rent went up 4-5%. i work for the state of IL (union) and my salary went up commensurate with official inflation #s. was my union conned? i don't feel like i'm losing ground



have wages actually gone up LESS than inflation over the decades? why are there not a lot more homeless people? hard to fudge wage data. so when did this fudging of inflation begin?

while many things are way up, electronics prices, for example, are way down from right before the pandemic started

[ThisGuyFawkes]

On a the surface, that makes perfect sense. But that’s not really how pricing generally works. It tends to be more cost driven….unfortunately.

inflation is 3%. are the costs of putting on a game really anticipated to be up anywhere close to 10%?

Inflation is at 3%? According to who? The government? Which has lied about everything for over 50 years. The CPI is worthless. It has been manipulated beyond recognition. For more accurate data try "Shadow Stats". Real inflation, measuring the things you actually have to buy, like food, insurance, health care, etc. is at least 10%. Our auto insurance rose 17% last year and we haven't had an accident in 20 years. We just renewed our home owners insurance. Up just under 24% year over year. We're running $2 Trillion Dollar deficits. That's what is causing inflation. And it's far higher than 3%.

Not to derail the thread, but our deficit isn't what's causing inflation. During COVID, Chinese factories (our main labor/supplies source) shut down and the cost of shipping increased 3-fold worldwide. Inflation has slowed since then, but prices aren't going to go back to pre-2020 levels. That's not how inflation works.

Corporations, such as healthcare and insurance, are making record profits year-over-year while squeezing the middle and lower class. They increase prices because they can, and we're forced to pay them because we can't go without healthcare or insurance. Meanwhile our government is subsidizing pharmaceutical companies while Americans pay more for drugs than any other wealthy nation.

Basically Corporations run our government and I see it getting much worse over the next few years.

Mods, feel free to delete this post if necessary.

[TheEndIsNigh]

On a the surface, that makes perfect sense. But that’s not really how pricing generally works. It tends to be more cost driven….unfortunately.

inflation is 3%. are the costs of putting on a game really anticipated to be up anywhere close to 10%?

Inflation is at 3%? According to who? The government? Which has lied about everything for over 50 years. The CPI is worthless. It has been manipulated beyond recognition. For more accurate data try "Shadow Stats". Real inflation, measuring the things you actually have to buy, like food, insurance, health care, etc. is at least 10%. Our auto insurance rose 17% last year and we haven't had an accident in 20 years. We just renewed our home owners insurance. Up just under 24% year over year. We're running $2 Trillion Dollar deficits. That's what is causing inflation. And it's far higher than 3%.

You just had to go there, huh?

[Almost Retired]

inflation is 3%. are the costs of putting on a game really anticipated to be up anywhere close to 10%?

Inflation is at 3%? According to who? The government? Which has lied about everything for over 50 years. The CPI is worthless. It has been manipulated beyond recognition. For more accurate data try "Shadow Stats". Real inflation, measuring the things you actually have to buy, like food, insurance, health care, etc. is at least 10%. Our auto insurance rose 17% last year and we haven't had an accident in 20 years. We just renewed our home owners insurance. Up just under 24% year over year. We're running $2 Trillion Dollar deficits. That's what is causing inflation. And it's far higher than 3%.

You just had to go there, huh?

Sorry. But real inflation is much higher than 3%. I buy beef. I buy eggs. I buy produce. All are up far more than 3%. Maybe computers are cheaper but I buy one of those every 6-8 years, not every week. And younger relatives complain about the high cost of rent or house prices being unreachable. That doesn't affect me personally but for the young people just starting out the cost of housing is up way more than 3%. I feel bad for the young people today. Housing costs are crippling them.

[Dresden]

Inflation is at 3%? According to who? The government? Which has lied about everything for over 50 years. The CPI is worthless. It has been manipulated beyond recognition. For more accurate data try "Shadow Stats". Real inflation, measuring the things you actually have to buy, like food, insurance, health care, etc. is at least 10%. Our auto insurance rose 17% last year and we haven't had an accident in 20 years. We just renewed our home owners insurance. Up just under 24% year over year. We're running $2 Trillion Dollar deficits. That's what is causing inflation. And it's far higher than 3%.

You just had to go there, huh?

Sorry. But real inflation is much higher than 3%. I buy beef. I buy eggs. I buy produce. All are up far more than 3%. Maybe computers are cheaper but I buy one of those every 6-8 years, not every week. And younger relatives complain about the high cost of rent or house prices being unreachable. That doesn't affect me personally but for the young people just starting out the cost of housing is up way more than 3%. I feel bad for the young people today. Housing costs are crippling them.

I think that overall, there is a housing shortage in the US, which drives up the price of buying a home or renting. I know where I live, the SF Bay Region, housing costs are astronomical, which in part must be offset by employers who have to pay higher salaries if they want to retain workers, which in turn makes everything more expensive.

[Almost Retired]

You just had to go there, huh?

Sorry. But real inflation is much higher than 3%. I buy beef. I buy eggs. I buy produce. All are up far more than 3%. Maybe computers are cheaper but I buy one of those every 6-8 years, not every week. And younger relatives complain about the high cost of rent or house prices being unreachable. That doesn't affect me personally but for the young people just starting out the cost of housing is up way more than 3%. I feel bad for the young people today. Housing costs are crippling them.

I think that overall, there is a housing shortage in the US, which drives up the price of buying a home or renting. I know where I live, the SF Bay Region, housing costs are astronomical, which in part must be offset by employers who have to pay higher salaries if they want to retain workers, which in turn makes everything more expensive.

I don't know how you folks can live with those housing prices unless you're a Silicon Valley Venture capitalist. My nephew lives in San Diego. They bought a 1000 square foot house built in 1924, 2 small bedrooms and one bath, and they paid $900 K. I know the weather is nice and all, but that's a big nut every month for not a lot of space.

[Almost Retired]

Several recent mock drafts now have us picking Armond Membou from Missouri at #10. I did not watch any Mizzou games, but he played right tackle. Do they think he can switch over the left side? And he's a little short to play OT. Only 6' 3". Maybe they are thinking of moving him inside? Anyone have an opinion on Membou? If the plan is to move him inside I'd prefer Tyler Booker myself.

[TheEndIsNigh]

I believe most of the 1st round graded tackles are projected to move inside to guard.

[Peelboy]

wasn't one of the worst O-lines. caleb holds the ball too long. agree on jenkins, though, and i think re-signing him is very unlikely

PFN o-line rankings:

17) Chicago Bears
Regular-Season Grade: 76.7 (C)

It has been exceptionally unfair that the Chicago Bears’ offensive woes were largely blamed on the offensive line. Sure, a 17th-placed ranking isn’t good, but it’s not horrendous. They had some bad outings, as did most offensive lines, but that doesn’t mean they are the main reason for Caleb Williams’ struggles as a rookie.

The Bears’ OL was asked to block for the fourth-longest time of any unit this season (3.09 seconds). That contributes heavily to a 10.7% sack rate (last in the NFL) because their 35.4% pressure rate is up to 18th. We see that replicated whether it’s against the blitz or not, suggesting it might be a general problem in Williams’ game.

Chicago also ranks 15th in PBWR, which is respectable. Similarly, the run-blocking numbers are fairly solid (0.91 RBYBC/rush, 15th), so it’s ambitious to blame the offensive line for this season’s collapse.

8) Washington Commanders
Regular-Season Grade: 83.5 (B)
Regular Season + Postseason Grade: 81.1 (B-; 7th)

On the season as a whole, the Commanders’ offensive line did a good job in pass protection, given just how long Jayden Daniels holds the ball (3.01 seconds; seventh). Whether it’s in the face of the blitz or not, he’s in the top 10 for both in time to throw (or be sacked).

Therefore, while the pressure numbers don’t look elite (34.4%), in the context of the time they are blocking, they’re respectable. That is reflected in a top-10 ranking in PBWR entering Week 18.

In the run game, the Commanders’ RBs only averaged 0.89 YBC/rush, but ESPN ranks Washington’s line as the second-best in RBWR.

The Commanders’ offensive line did not perform well in the NFC Championship Game (D+). They finished with two of the worst four performances in run blocking, with 0.53 RBYBC/rush against the Eagles’ front four. We feared this might be the case after Washington struggled in the Wild Card round, but their bounce back against Detroit offered some hope.

The pass-blocking numbers look fine on the surface, with a 34.5% pressure rate and a 5.8% sack rate. However, Daniels consistently got the ball in under three seconds, suggesting their quarterback helped salvage those numbers with his play.

The main concern came against the blitz, where they allowed a 57.1% pressure rate. Daniels did well in escaping pressure and getting the ball out, which means Washington’s line didn’t give up a sack against the blitz.

The Bears rank 24th in the PFF offensive line rankings.

"While Chicago’s offensive line failed to reach the potential many saw in it in the preseason, the unit was better than many people gave it credit for. Four of the Bears’ five projected starters earned PFF overall grades above 70.0, and all five topped 65.0. However, injuries and Caleb Williams’ pocket movement and awareness did the group no favors, resulting in the line allowing the most sacks in the NFL (37).

The Bears may have surrendered the most sacks in the league, but they were “only” the 12th-worst offensive line in PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating (84.1). The unit allowed 180 total pressures on 682 pass plays."

I agree Caleb holds the ball, although from watching, that really became more of an issue later in the year, and based on my armchair coach read, was substantially due to dropping eyes at the snap to watch for the rush up the middle. Which was a massive issue for most of the season.

I don't quibble too much with the PFF ranking of 24th, I'd have assumed somewhere near the bottom and in the bottom quarter of OLs would qualify. No clue how PFN is getting 17, that's inconsistent with what I saw (and apparently what PFF saw). I do note that PFN says "Intriguingly, this unit posted four games with a grade of B- or above, and three of its five wins came in those games. All three came before their bye week, though, and they only posted one game above a C+ after Week 7, when their schedule got significantly harder." So seems consistent with looking good when playing weak competition but bad against better teams.

All of which to me still says by far the priority for the offseason is a significant retool of the O Line. It's been a particular area of deficit under Poles (although he tried with Nate Davis it was a massive fail). And while it's armchair again, I could distinctly notice that as the season went one, Caleb regressed in keeping his head up, and it happened as the interior of the O Line got repeatedly bulldozed.

Happy to agree to disagree, but I would target 1-2 starter caliber OL in FA and 1-2 in the draft. I would similarly target the DL and don't disagree with your choices there. But if I had to choose, I'd 1000% pick OL over DL to give Caleb his best shot (and Johnson).

agree w/ a lot of that. to be clear, i did a simulation of an offseason using perceived probabilities and a random number generator.
i was not providing my preferred acquisitions. just a weirdly fun intellectual exercise that takes a few hours. if the final results stimulate a little discussion, great. anyway...i've done several of them last year and this, and i've never looked at the final results and said "man, i'd like that to happen." odds are, most everybody's gonna be less than thrilled at what actually goes down

for example, jenkins re-signing for over 15 mil a year (1 yr. fully guaranteed) was a distinct outlier scenario. he is expected to get 10-15 mil a year. and it's very unlikely to be in chicago. i personally wouldn't mind keeping him, but not at 17 mil

Ah I see.
I personally would love Tevin back. When healthy he’s really good, and has the nasty I want in OL. But he’s rarely healthy. So short deal, and need to stack behind him. But if they got say Dalman, then I’d love a cheaper Zeitler from Det, and resign Tevin. Then, can grab an OT and a G in the draft, even if both are 2ds, and resign Pryor. Rook backs up or beats out Braxton, and rook/pryor there to replace Tevin if/when hurt. And I’d get another depth C later, maybe the short kid who’s supposedly awesome but like 5’10”.

[molepharmer]

Several recent mock drafts now have us picking Armond Membou from Missouri at #10. I did not watch any Mizzou games, but he played right tackle. Do they think he can switch over the left side? And he's a little short to play OT. Only 6' 3". Maybe they are thinking of moving him inside? Anyone have an opinion on Membou? If the plan is to move him inside I'd prefer Tyler Booker myself.

Being a Mizzou alum I watched them most of this year. Can't say I paid much attention to the line play, but then the QB, B Cook, seemed to rarely get pressured. I saw some recent tibit about Membou suggesting he was excellent in not allowing pressures despite facing guys like M Williams, J Pierce, J Walker, Scourton, etc. Have heard he is expected to move inside in the pros.

[Dresden]

Sorry. But real inflation is much higher than 3%. I buy beef. I buy eggs. I buy produce. All are up far more than 3%. Maybe computers are cheaper but I buy one of those every 6-8 years, not every week. And younger relatives complain about the high cost of rent or house prices being unreachable. That doesn't affect me personally but for the young people just starting out the cost of housing is up way more than 3%. I feel bad for the young people today. Housing costs are crippling them.

I think that overall, there is a housing shortage in the US, which drives up the price of buying a home or renting. I know where I live, the SF Bay Region, housing costs are astronomical, which in part must be offset by employers who have to pay higher salaries if they want to retain workers, which in turn makes everything more expensive.

I don't know how you folks can live with those housing prices unless you're a Silicon Valley Venture capitalist. My nephew lives in San Diego. They bought a 1000 square foot house built in 1924, 2 small bedrooms and one bath, and they paid $900 K. I know the weather is nice and all, but that's a big nut every month for not a lot of space.

I'll tell you how a lot of us manage in two words: rent control.

[nomorezorro]

Several recent mock drafts now have us picking Armond Membou from Missouri at #10. I did not watch any Mizzou games, but he played right tackle. Do they think he can switch over the left side? And he's a little short to play OT. Only 6' 3". Maybe they are thinking of moving him inside? Anyone have an opinion on Membou? If the plan is to move him inside I'd prefer Tyler Booker myself.

decent amount of speculation that he'd shift inside in the nfl, but nothing definitive - i feel like people are more open to him sticking at tackle than most of the other prospective OT->OG converts. i've also read he's approaching his draft prep to stick at tackle — i dunno if that means much since it's the higher-value position and most prospects would want to be seen as an OT, but he's at least not at the level of a guy like grey zabel who has basically openly accepted that he's gonna move inside.

i was doing some research the other day on whether he could switch to the left side, and i couldn't find anyone saying anything on that either way. i did discover that he apparently didn't even play LT at the high school level, though, so that would have me lean toward it being unlikely that he plays there for the first time in the pros

[biggestbullsfan]

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[Almost Retired]

I don't think this is a strong year for Offensive tackles. Even the top ones have some question marks. Our two tackles are serviceable. We could use a swing tackle but I don't think using #10 to get one would get us a dominant player. With the middle of our offensive line being our bigger immediate concern I am starting to come around to the idea of using #10 to get Tyler Booker. He's the Trey Smith of the future at 1/4 of the cost during his rookie deal. I've watched some of his highlights a few times. He dominates. He pancakes people. His lower body is massive and he holds his ground even against tough defensive lines. If we draft Booker, sign Will Fries and Drew Dalman, and draft Grey Zabel in the 2nd round all of a sudden we have a more than respectable O-Line without breaking the bank on Trey Smith. Using a #10 pick on a guard hasn't been a popular approach in the past but to me Booker looks like a future All-Pro. I can't say the same about Will Campbell, Kelvin Banks or any of the other Offensive tackles in this draft.

[biggestbullsfan]

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I blame Waldron because this was one of the worst signings Poles has made. I’d put this over Claypool and Davis. Those moves you can justify. We didn’t need to pay top dollar for a TE2 just to basically bench Kmet.

[biggestbullsfan]

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Not a huge fan of this move. He was cheap and worked well as a DE3/4 or can move inside. We gotta really fill in the DE room asap.

[El Ridda]

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Not a huge fan of this move. He was cheap and worked well as a DE3/4 or can move inside. We gotta really fill in the DE room asap.

I agree. I liked Walker last year, but maybe just settling for mediocracy.

Are they going to do the same with Bates???? Would save another 4 million I believe, but Poles seems to have a weird attachment to him.

[biggestbullsfan]

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This guy looks like a teenager. Insane hire.

Also, hiring your coach before your GM is a choice lol

[biggestbullsfan]

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Not a huge fan of this move. He was cheap and worked well as a DE3/4 or can move inside. We gotta really fill in the DE room asap.

I agree. I liked Walker last year, but maybe just settling for mediocracy.

Are they going to do the same with Bates???? Would save another 4 million I believe, but Poles seems to have a weird attachment to him.

New DC. He probably wants to bring in his own guys at that price. Maybe a Chase Young or something. And draft the trenches heavy.

[Jeffster81]

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This guy looks like a teenager. Insane hire.

Also, hiring your coach before your GM is a choice lol

Eff you Jacksonville. I wanted the draft picks, you morons.