2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

career high tov. i dunno about that metric. bpm has a blind spot for westbrook historically.

[bondom34]

It's his lowest to/100 since 2013...

[slick_watts]

It's his lowest to/100 since 2013...

tov%

[bondom34]

It's his lowest to/100 since 2013...

tov%

Which you've always railed against me using.

Adding to that, his on court TO% is down. So even by that measure, which I've been told to not use previously, at a team level he's improved.

[slick_watts]

It's his lowest to/100 since 2013...

tov%

Which you've always railed against me using.

Adding to that, his on court TO% is down. So even by that measure, which I've been told to not use previously, at a team level he's improved.

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

[bondom34]

tov%

Which you've always railed against me using.

Adding to that, his on court TO% is down. So even by that measure, which I've been told to not use previously, at a team level he's improved.

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

TO/100 is a per 100 stat. It's directly measured. His on court TO% is down, his TO/100 down, his assist:to up. His passing has visually been notably better.

[spearsy23]

Which you've always railed against me using.

Adding to that, his on court TO% is down. So even by that measure, which I've been told to not use previously, at a team level he's improved.

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

TO/100 is a per 100 stat. It's directly measured. His on court TO% is down, his TO/100 down, his assist:to up. His passing has visually been notably better.

Handle has been noticeably worse though.

[bondom34]

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

TO/100 is a per 100 stat. It's directly measured. His on court TO% is down, his TO/100 down, his assist:to up. His passing has visually been notably better.

Handle has been noticeably worse though.

At times, to me that's been hit and miss and got better as he's played. His first few games back both times were rough.

[slick_watts]

Which you've always railed against me using.

Adding to that, his on court TO% is down. So even by that measure, which I've been told to not use previously, at a team level he's improved.

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

TO/100 is a per 100 stat. It's directly measured. His on court TO% is down, his TO/100 down, his assist:to up. His passing has visually been notably better.

what the hell is on court to%?

his passing has been visually better? is there anyone here who would agree with that? because i think think it's been starkly worse overall.

his tov% is higher because he's taking fewer shots relative to the turnovers he is committing. tov% is designed to measure turnover propensity relative to a player's own usage. he's turning it over a higher number of times relative to the possessions he is using. i always like this method but it's admittedly a bit contextual.

to/100 is relative to team possessions, obviously. westbrook is using fewer team possessions than before so his to/100 will be lower just as a result of that.

[bondom34]

we had a disagreement about ast%,not tov%, and i didn't rail against you for using it but for characterizing it as functionally similar to tov%, steal%, block% etc. when it's not a per 100 rate statistic at all like the others.

TO/100 is a per 100 stat. It's directly measured. His on court TO% is down, his TO/100 down, his assist:to up. His passing has visually been notably better.

what the hell is on court to%?

his passing has been visually better? is there anyone here who would agree with that? because i think think it's been starkly worse overall.

his tov% is higher because he's taking fewer shots relative to the turnovers he is committing. tov% is designed to measure turnover propensity relative to a player's own usage. he's turning it over a higher number of times relative to the possessions he is using. i always like this method but it's admittedly a bit contextual.

to/100 is relative to team possessions, obviously. westbrook is using fewer team possessions than before so his to/100 will be lower just as a result of that.

Yeah, the passing is better.

And on court TO% is exactly that. The team's TO% when on court, you've used it many many times.

He's got his best assist:TO ratio in years.

[slick_watts]

And on court TO% is exactly that. The team's TO% when on court, you've used it many many times.

lol

[bondom34]

I could pull quotes, but nah. Sure, he sucks. Only likes the white kids, starts fights and can't play anymore. I figured it was a little bad when everyone calls you for it now.

[slick_watts]

I could pull quotes, but nah. Sure, he sucks. Only likes the white kids, starts fights and can't play anymore. I figured it was a little bad when everyone calls you for it now.

[Mattv]

If I was Donovan I would sit Schroder down and make him watch Steve Nash tape.If Schroder would just keep his Dribble alive instead of going up for a contested layup with 3 people guarding him he would be an allstar the passing lanes would be wide open and he already has a really good floater.It wouldnt hurt if he made Westbrook do the same.

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

[bondom34]

Yeah, you the guy being called out for it in the game threads now.

But citing Roberson's defense:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-thunder-are-falling-apart-without-andre-roberson/

it's actually worse than this article states. if you incorporate the games andre roberson missed prior to the rupture, the thunder defense is dead last.

offensively, there's a thing not mentioned here: opponent turnovers. a reduction of opponent turnovers = a reduction in easy points or favorable cross matchups.

with andre roberson playing with the starters, the thunder opponent tov% is 16.4. that wouldn't only be first place among all teams this year by a mile, but also #1 for any 5-man lineup that has played 200 minutes in the last three seasons.

the same group without roberson has an opponent tov% of 11.5, which would be 29th in the league this season. that's a lot of lost opportunities for the offense.

Again offensively at a team level.

it's a great article. this is what i would add.

first is that, while the idea of westbrook + adams + three shooters and an all out spread pnr attack is appealing, it is still inherently limited by westbrook's poor pull-up shooting ability. lowe compared westbrook to harden in this vein and sort of skirts over that difference. i don't see it as such a minor thing. westbrook also runs into a similar problem harden has when building such a team, in that you need one or more of those shooters to be quality defensive wings as well because westbrook isn't going to defend. morey has chris paul now, and a stable of '3&D' wings to flank harden. that's not an easy thing to do.

second, i believe westbrook's influence on the offense is overstated. he's a great offensive player but his flaws relative to harden and the others lowe mentions will always hold him back. i've noted this before, but the thunder offense with westbrook in the game this season being even above league average is entirely predicated on the offensive rebounding of steven adams (and to a lessor extent, others). the thunder are league average or worse at a factor level at eFG, TOV%, and FT/FGA with westbrook in the game this year, but blow the league away on ORB% because adams has turned into moses malone. some will quibble about how much influence westbrook has on ORB% but it's definitely the factor of the four he's least responsible for. by contrast, kemba walker's hornets have a better eFG, FT/FGA and TOV% when he is on the court. i don't think this should be the case if westbrook is as influential as lowe is implying.

Hm.

[slick_watts]

Yeah, you the guy being called out for it in the game threads now.

But citing Roberson's defense:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-thunder-are-falling-apart-without-andre-roberson/

it's actually worse than this article states. if you incorporate the games andre roberson missed prior to the rupture, the thunder defense is dead last.

offensively, there's a thing not mentioned here: opponent turnovers. a reduction of opponent turnovers = a reduction in easy points or favorable cross matchups.

with andre roberson playing with the starters, the thunder opponent tov% is 16.4. that wouldn't only be first place among all teams this year by a mile, but also #1 for any 5-man lineup that has played 200 minutes in the last three seasons.

the same group without roberson has an opponent tov% of 11.5, which would be 29th in the league this season. that's a lot of lost opportunities for the offense.

Again offensively at a team level.

it's a great article. this is what i would add.

first is that, while the idea of westbrook + adams + three shooters and an all out spread pnr attack is appealing, it is still inherently limited by westbrook's poor pull-up shooting ability. lowe compared westbrook to harden in this vein and sort of skirts over that difference. i don't see it as such a minor thing. westbrook also runs into a similar problem harden has when building such a team, in that you need one or more of those shooters to be quality defensive wings as well because westbrook isn't going to defend. morey has chris paul now, and a stable of '3&D' wings to flank harden. that's not an easy thing to do.

second, i believe westbrook's influence on the offense is overstated. he's a great offensive player but his flaws relative to harden and the others lowe mentions will always hold him back. i've noted this before, but the thunder offense with westbrook in the game this season being even above league average is entirely predicated on the offensive rebounding of steven adams (and to a lessor extent, others). the thunder are league average or worse at a factor level at eFG, TOV%, and FT/FGA with westbrook in the game this year, but blow the league away on ORB% because adams has turned into moses malone. some will quibble about how much influence westbrook has on ORB% but it's definitely the factor of the four he's least responsible for. by contrast, kemba walker's hornets have a better eFG, FT/FGA and TOV% when he is on the court. i don't think this should be the case if westbrook is as influential as lowe is implying.

Hm.

i don't see the connection here. do you think i'm denouncing team tov% as a useful metric? of course it is useful, it's one of the four factors!

we have a disconnect with how meaningful team tov% is when evaluating westbrook's play making this season. he is turning it over more relative to the possessions he uses... everything else is just trying to hide from that. my point that andre roberson has a HUGE impact on opponent TOV% and that the offense with rw in last year was mostly predicated on offensive rebounding has nothing to do with this discussion, does it?

pg and adams tov% both reduced from last year and they are using more possessions. grant is low turnovers just like melo was. but regardless of what the team is doing, westbrook's turning it over more than he usually does per play (individual tov%). so, to me, that's an indication he's been worse at ball handling, play making, whatever.

[bondom34]

Yeah, you the guy being called out for it in the game threads now.

But citing Roberson's defense:

it's actually worse than this article states. if you incorporate the games andre roberson missed prior to the rupture, the thunder defense is dead last.

offensively, there's a thing not mentioned here: opponent turnovers. a reduction of opponent turnovers = a reduction in easy points or favorable cross matchups.

with andre roberson playing with the starters, the thunder opponent tov% is 16.4. that wouldn't only be first place among all teams this year by a mile, but also #1 for any 5-man lineup that has played 200 minutes in the last three seasons.

the same group without roberson has an opponent tov% of 11.5, which would be 29th in the league this season. that's a lot of lost opportunities for the offense.

Again offensively at a team level.

it's a great article. this is what i would add.

first is that, while the idea of westbrook + adams + three shooters and an all out spread pnr attack is appealing, it is still inherently limited by westbrook's poor pull-up shooting ability. lowe compared westbrook to harden in this vein and sort of skirts over that difference. i don't see it as such a minor thing. westbrook also runs into a similar problem harden has when building such a team, in that you need one or more of those shooters to be quality defensive wings as well because westbrook isn't going to defend. morey has chris paul now, and a stable of '3&D' wings to flank harden. that's not an easy thing to do.

second, i believe westbrook's influence on the offense is overstated. he's a great offensive player but his flaws relative to harden and the others lowe mentions will always hold him back. i've noted this before, but the thunder offense with westbrook in the game this season being even above league average is entirely predicated on the offensive rebounding of steven adams (and to a lessor extent, others). the thunder are league average or worse at a factor level at eFG, TOV%, and FT/FGA with westbrook in the game this year, but blow the league away on ORB% because adams has turned into moses malone. some will quibble about how much influence westbrook has on ORB% but it's definitely the factor of the four he's least responsible for. by contrast, kemba walker's hornets have a better eFG, FT/FGA and TOV% when he is on the court. i don't think this should be the case if westbrook is as influential as lowe is implying.

Hm.

i don't see the connection here. do you think i'm denouncing team tov% as a useful metric? of course it is useful, it's one of the four factors!

we have a disconnect with how meaningful team tov% is when evaluating westbrook's play making this season. he is turning it over more relative to the possessions he uses... everything else is just trying to hide from that. my point that andre roberson has a HUGE impact on opponent TOV% and that the offense with rw in last year was mostly predicated on offensive rebounding has nothing to do with this discussion, does it?

pg and adams tov% both reduced from last year and they are using more possessions. grant is low turnovers just like melo was. but regardless of what the team is doing, westbrook's turning it over more than he usually does per play (individual tov%). so, to me, that's an indication he's been worse at ball handling, play making, whatever.

Yeah, I'd vehemently disagree. Given his assist:TO ratio is at an all time high, and people are noticing outside of you, and his TO/100 is down, and that TOV% is an "estimate" done by formula. You said it, he's making fewer TOs relative to the amount of shots he's taking. His assists have remained stable. I don't care about his shots, I care about his turnovers. He's visibly making smarter passes.

[slick_watts]

Yeah, I'd vehemently disagree. Given his assist:TO ratio is at an all time high, and people are noticing outside of you, and his TO/100 is down, and that TOV% is an "estimate" done by formula. You said it, he's making fewer TOs relative to the amount of shots he's taking. His assists have remained stable. I don't care about his shots, I care about his turnovers. He's visibly making smarter passes.

but.. he's turning it over more relative to his usage. that's tov%. how can you say he's been a smarter passer if he's turning it over more per opportunity?

AST:TO? is this 2004?

we're not going to agree on this. even watching the games we are not seeing the same thing. are you even watching the games? it doesn't seem like you are based on the game threads.

[bondom34]

Yeah, I'd vehemently disagree. Given his assist:TO ratio is at an all time high, and people are noticing outside of you, and his TO/100 is down, and that TOV% is an "estimate" done by formula. You said it, he's making fewer TOs relative to the amount of shots he's taking. His assists have remained stable. I don't care about his shots, I care about his turnovers. He's visibly making smarter passes.

but.. he's turning it over more relative to his usage. that's tov%. how can you say he's been a smarter passer if he's turning it over more per opportunity?

AST:TO? is this 2004?

we're not going to agree on this. even watching the games we are not seeing the same thing. are you even watching the games? it doesn't seem like you are based on the game threads.

eah, I am when possible. And seems Taylor sees what I do. And by the threads seems nobody sees a lot of what you do with him.

Basically he's turning it over more to you because he's shooting less. When his actual TOs are down, and assists the same.

[slick_watts]

Yeah, I'd vehemently disagree. Given his assist:TO ratio is at an all time high, and people are noticing outside of you, and his TO/100 is down, and that TOV% is an "estimate" done by formula. You said it, he's making fewer TOs relative to the amount of shots he's taking. His assists have remained stable. I don't care about his shots, I care about his turnovers. He's visibly making smarter passes.

but.. he's turning it over more relative to his usage. that's tov%. how can you say he's been a smarter passer if he's turning it over more per opportunity?

AST:TO? is this 2004?

we're not going to agree on this. even watching the games we are not seeing the same thing. are you even watching the games? it doesn't seem like you are based on the game threads.

eah, I am when possible. And seems Taylor sees what I do. And by the threads seems nobody sees a lot of what you do with him.

Basically he's turning it over more to you because he's shooting less. When his actual TOs are down, and assists the same.

yes, he's turning it over relative to the possessions he is using which imo is a reflection of his condition as a play maker / ball handler / etc.

who is taylor? why should i care what taylor thinks?

i've seen a lot of people frustrated with westbrook's passing and ball handling this season in these threads and elsewhere.