Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Dat2U]

Some random thoughts.

The best players I've seen this year thus far were Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker. I thought Walker could have been an end of lottery pick last year, right now he looks like a top 5 choice to me.

Perry Jones really really really intrigues me. He's a five tool prospect based solely upon potential. I don't know what position he plays either. He looks like a much better prospect to me than Harrison Barnes but its still early.

Jared Sullinger looks good, but I want to see him in Big Ten play. I worry about his ability to defend at the next level. Honestly the guy he reminds me the most of is Kevin Love so far.

I liked Jan Vesely last year but haven't paid attention to him recently to offer up much of an opinion yet. I know very little about Enes Kanter or any of the other foreign prospects yet.

If I had to sketch together an early top of lottery grouping I'd say

1. Perry Jones
2. Kyrie Irving
3. Jared Sullinger
4. Kemba Walker
5. Jan Vesely

That will likely change about 1000 times before next June.

[Ed Wood]

That draft sealed the deal for me when I was mulling over instituting the Howland rules when evaluating UCLA prospects. When you have Collison, Russell Westbrook and Holiday and all of them look very blah in your system I am prepared to conclude that your system is not very conductive to effective guard play. And low and beyond Howland's offense is, in fact, ugly; like Peter John Ramos ugly. Any guard on team coached by John Calipari and maybe by Scott Drew also qualify for ugly offense prospect hardship status.

And I definitely agree about Singleton, he looks big enough to be an NBA power forward to me, and that makes him a much more appealing prospect to me. Klay Thompson can really, really shoot but I am not so sure he can really defend, really. Still think he has a definite place in the NBA.

[Rafael122]

That draft sealed the deal for me when I was mulling over instituting the Howland rules when evaluating UCLA prospects. When you have Collison, Russell Westbrook and Holiday and all of them look very blah in your system I am prepared to conclude that your system is not very conductive to effective guard play. And low and beyond Howland's offense is, in fact, ugly; like Peter John Ramos ugly. Any guard on team coached by John Calipari and maybe by Scott Drew also qualify for ugly offense prospect hardship status.

And I definitely agree about Singleton, he looks big enough to be an NBA power forward to me, and that makes him a much more appealing prospect to me. Klay Thompson can really, really shoot but I am not so sure he can really defend, really. Still think he has a definite place in the NBA.

It's kinda like the Hoyas and the princeton offense. Look at Hibbert and Jeff Green, yeah, lottery picks, but they had question marks about their offensive game. Jeff Green is averaging 17 points per game this season and Hibbert is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the top big men in the NBA.

[go'stags]

Gotta be honest, I don't know if Singleton moves well enough to be a first team all defense in the NBA. Everyone loves him though, so I need to watch more before I say for sure.

Haven't seen much of Sullinger, but I am concerned that he gets his sho blocked fairly often.

[Severn Hoos]

Remember all that chatter about the 2009 draft being weak? Turns out the experts were right -- after Blake Griffin there's not a superstar in the bunch. Steph Curry is probably the second best player, but he's a full tier or two down from Griffin. Evans is decent, but appears to be very limited by being a headcase and a chucker. Harden's a role player. Brandon Jennings is pretty good I suppose. Jury is waay out on Rubio...

Thabeet, FLynn, Jordan Hill, Derozan, Terence Willaims, Henderson, Earl Clark, James, Johnson, Teague, BJ Mullens....blech

Easily my best draft in terms of rating prospects. Remember the Harden vs. Curry debates. I remember arguing over the athleticism of both players and screaming how much Harden looked like a 4th or 5th option to me. Doc, CCJ and a few others knew Curry was the real deal all along. DCZards was on the Tyreke bandwagon before everyone else and I quickly jumped on shortly thereafter.

I had Griffin, Rubio, Evans & Curry as my top 4 on draft night. Of course no one knows how Rubio will turn out. I also had Lawson & Blair as top 10 picks. I hated Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams and said B.J. Mullens was bust waiting to happen. DeRozan has disappointed me a little bit. I missed on Jennings & Holiday. I honestly didn't see enough of both to really feel confident about either.

go'stags really nailed the Holiday pick. I remember arguing with him about that and he swore up and down Holiday was going to be a steal when i had serious doubts. I also remember Severn Hoos constantly preaching to us about the talents of Darren Collison and how he'd be great value with a later 1st round pick.

We've got some great talent evaluators on this board.

Dat, you have an awesome memory! Running through the Draft prospects with this board almost makes up for having such a lame team to root for on the floor. And for us, the Draft is more exciting than the actual games.

On the '09 Draft, I'm not surprised by much of what's transpired. Evans is better than I expected, although Zards (and that sick Sac pre-draft workout video) had me convinced by Draft day. Of course, I knew he'd be gone before #5 anyway...

I liked some of what Curry brought, but really never saw him - and still don't - as a starter on a championship team. And now with Wall, I just don't think he'd be a good fit. Was the BPA, but so what - a trade was probably the best thing at the time.

Irony alert - remember how Knick fans were proposing Wilson Chandler for the #5 pick? Remember how we laughed at them? Anyone else want to jump in the DeLorean and talk Ernie into that deal?

And for this year: I said it here about a month ago, when Ed first brought up Singleton, but I am totally sold. I really want to see the Wiz pick up another 1st, just to get this guy. And that top pick has to be Sullinger, IMO. If there was a way to add both of them, the rebuild would be way ahead of schedule. After those two guys, there aren't a whole lot I'm interested in.

[Dat2U]

Does Sullinger defend PFs or Cs at the next level? I think his offensive skill set & rebounding will translate for the most part. I guess a lot will depend on his measurements including his standing reach.

[Ruzious]

Gotta be honest, I don't know if Singleton moves well enough to be a first team all defense in the NBA. Everyone loves him though, so I need to watch more before I say for sure.

Haven't seen much of Sullinger, but I am concerned that he gets his sho blocked fairly often.

I didn't think a whole lot of Singleton last year, but he's a different player - physically and skill-wise this year. He was covering guards sometimes last season, and he's probably too big to do that now. But I think he can effectively guard pretty much every sized forward. Also, his combo of steals and blocks is extremely impressive.

Sullinger - I agree, but same thing with Carlos Boozer - he has trouble shooting over length, but he's still very effective except against the very best defensive bigs - and he's still okay against them. Sullinger will likely have the same defensive cons and pros that Boozer has. He ain't the next Tim Duncan, but there are no Tim Duncans available.

[Ruzious]

DraftExpress has a very positive update on Jonas Valanciunas http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jon ... unas-5622/ from yesterday. Kid turns just 19 next May. He says he's a hair under 6'11 without shoes, has a 7'6 wingspan, and will eventually pack the pounds on his now slight 240 lb frame. He's got extremely high FG and FT percentages and a good rebounding rate. Is supposedly very athletic. He realizes he needs to learn a lot more at both ends. Plays on the low post but made his only 3 point attempt and 86% FT%age seems to indicate he can hit the perimeter J. Seems like there's an awful lot to like about this kid.

[no D in Hibachi]

I've been very intrigued by Jonas Valanciunas since you tipped me off on him a couple months ago, Ruz. From the reports I've read he seems like he has the best traits of Blatche (IQ, awareness) and McGee (length and athleticism). In this draft he appears to be worth the risk as I think most players projected high in the lotto appear to be good players, but not franchise players and maybe not even 2nd tier star players.

[closg00]

Givony's SI article:

Emerging college stars who have radically increased their NBA stock

Kemba Walker, UConn
6-foot-2, Junior, Point Guard

Derrick Williams, Arizona
6-8, Sophomore, Power Forward

Jon Leuer, Wisconsin
6-10, Senior, Small Forward/Power Forward

Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
6-11, Junior, Power Forward/Center

Jordan Hamilton, Texas
6-7, Sophomore, Shooting Guard/Small Forward

Demetri McCamey, Illinois
6-3, Senior, Point Guard
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/b ... z19MPcmBBS

[Dat2U]

So I did a quick breakdown of the lottery, as bad as we appear to be, I think we are looking at a relatively small group of prospects with our pick.

Now considering our needs, we aren't drafting a PG to keep on our roster. As much as I love Kemba Walker and think he'll be an all-star at the next level, it makes zero sense to draft & keep him. So that rules out Kyrie Irving as well. Both are great college players but they aren't John Wall.

The other four positions are up for the debate. There's no elite level SG to speak of around the lottery so that doesn't look like an option either.

So were down to either small forwards, power forwards or centers. Regardless of what we already have with Blatche, McGee, Lewis, Seraphin & Booker we could stand an upgrade at the 3, 4 & 5.

Here's the list of 13 players that we'll be likely looking at in the draft. It's nearly a certainty that one of these 13 will be wearing a Wizards uniform next season.

Your job, if you choose to take it, will be to rank this group in your order of preference:

CE Enes Kanter, 18 yrs old, Kentucky, freshman
CE Jonas Valaciunas, 18 yrs old, Lietuvos Rytas

PF John Henson, 19 yrs old, North Carolina, sophomore
PF/SF Perry Jones, 19 yrs old, Baylor, freshman
PF/SF Terrence Jones, 18 yrs old, Kentucky, freshman
PF Donatas Motiejunas, 20 yrs old, Benetton Treviso
PF Jared Sullinger, 18 yrs old, Ohio State, freshman
PF Mason Plumlee, 20 yrs old, Duke, sophomore
PF/SF Jan Vesely, 20 yrs old, KK Paritzan Belgrade
PF/SF Derrick Williams, 19 yrs old, Arizona, sophomore

SF Harrison Barnes, 18 yrs old, North Carolina, freshman
SF Jordan Hamilton, 20 yrs old, Texas, sophomore
SF Chris Singleton, 21 yrs old, Florida State, junior

Add in anyone you think I might be missing. I considered adding C.J. Leslie & Josh Selby to the list as well.

[Rafael122]

If that's the list, I wouldn't be opposed to trading the pick. That's friggin horrible. Sullinger I've seen play in a few games, but I take what he's done with a grain of salt. He blew up against some team, I think it was IUPUI. Really? Eh.

I'd only trade the pick if its out of the top 5 and if the players on the list Dat provided don't blow up.

[Severn Hoos]

So I did a quick breakdown of the lottery, as bad as we appear to be, I think we are looking at a relatively small group of prospects with our pick.

Here's the list of 13 players that we'll be likely looking at in the draft. It's nearly a certainty that one of these 13 will be wearing a Wizards uniform next season.

Your job, if you choose to take it, will be to rank this group in your order of preference:

Well, I've never been one to back away from a challenge...

I'll have to defer on the Euros - I generally shy away from rating them because not only do I not get the chance to see them live in games, it's hard to gauge the level of competition. To Raffy - OK, so it was IUPUI, at least I have that reference point. With Partizan, Maccabe, FC Barcelona, and dozens of other lesser squads, I don't have that level of comfort. Add in the whole devaluation of stats, politics of sitting young players, and Euroleague is just an entirely different league altogether. (cue Leslie Nielsen, RIP)

So here goes my preference among Dat's players:

1. PF Jared Sullinger, 18 yrs old, Ohio State, freshman

First choice for me, and it's not even close. Not saying I'd necessarily take him #1, as his appropriate value level is probably between 3-5. If the Wiz did get the #1 pick, and were reasonably confident he'd be there at 3 or 4, I'd trade down if possible. But if need be, I'd even take him #1 to be sure we got him. Sullinger & McGee w/ Blatche off the bench is a nice and young (too young) front court.

2. SF Harrison Barnes, 18 yrs old, North Carolina, freshman
3. PF/SF Perry Jones, 19 yrs old, Baylor, freshman

Probably bowing to the pressure of conventional wisdom here, but everyone thinks these guys will be very good, so I'll reluctantly put them in here.

4. PF/SF Terrence Jones, 18 yrs old, Kentucky, freshman
5. PF/SF Derrick Williams, 19 yrs old, Arizona, sophomore

T. Jones can be a force in the League, looking for some consistency from him. D. Williams has been compared to David West. Not a bad comparison, not sure it's what we really need, but a good guy to have in the fold if only because having him could open up some trade opportunities.

6. SF Chris Singleton, 21 yrs old, Florida State, junior

This is way high to be talking about drafting Singleton, but I really like what I've seen from him this year. I've seen him block 3-point shots from guys who never even saw him coming. Seen him end up in a switch isolated against the opposing PG and pick him clean. And for anyone who says he can't guard the perimeter - I'd say that won't be a problem. With his improved shooting (hope he keeps it up), he should have a real good career in a Bowen/Artest type role. If we get stuck in the 6-10 range, I'd look to slide down a few slots and get Singleton.

7. SF Jordan Hamilton, 20 yrs old, Texas, sophomore

For some reason I'm just nervous about him. Don't get me wrong, I'd gladly take him, could be a real nice addition at SF, maybe even a Granger-type player. I just don't see (super)star potential there.

8. PF John Henson, 19 yrs old, North Carolina, sophomore
9. PF Mason Plumlee, 20 yrs old, Duke, sophomore

Since I'm not incorporating the Euros, these guys are kind of by default. I'd definitely rather see a EuroV here, but Henson's a useful player. Could even be a nice platoon guy with McGee. Would rather get more for a mid- to high Lotto pick, though.

Actually - come to think of it, I do have a few guys I'll insert here.

8. SF Tyler Honeycutt, 20 years old, UCLA, sophomore
9. PF Trey Thompkins, 20 years old, Georgia, junior
10. PF Marcus Morris, 21 years old, Kansas, junior

Honeycutt & Morris get program bonus points, particularly given Howland's recent success placing guys in the NBA. None of these guys displaces anyone in the current lineup, though - so it means just adding more bench players. Yawn.

Of course, Kyrie/Kemba/Brandon Knight all will go above most of these guys, but as Dat points out, why draft a PG? I'm not even sure Selby would fit well with Wall.

And the obvious caveat: We haven't made it to Conference play yet. That's when we'll find out what these guys are made of, especially the Freshmen. I expect that Sullinger will do just fine in the the Big 10, showing he can bang with the beefy (but slow) front courts in places like Purdue, Wisconsin, etc. I expect Williams to come back to earth statistically. Don't really expect that much out of P. Jones & Barnes, they each have teammates who will overshadow them. (Can you say, "Marvin Williams"?) T. Jones has the most to benefit from a strong conference & tournament showing, and Hamilton Jordan looks pretty spry for a holdover from the Carter administration.

yep, this is what we have to look forward to gents. Such is the life of the Wizfans...

[Ruzious]

Sev, we are so like-minded on the Wiz targetting Singleton. And I get the feeling he has significant offensive ability that could come out with the right team/teammates/coaching.

Can Derrick Williams play the 3. He's made some 3's. If he can, that makes him a legit top 5er. Otherwise, I don't see him as a top 5 as a PF. His rebounding is only okay. For an undersized guy to project to the 4, I want to see dominating college rebounding numbers.

I'd pass on Henson - he's got talent, but I don't want another skinny big, and he's only 6'9. Plumlee - I'm surprised he hasn't filled out more - he seems to have the frame. He can be a very solid starting NBA PF - as long as he adds some weight.

Kimba Walker - I think you're right not to put him in the top 10 - mainly because UConn players the last decade or so don't seem to develop under Calhoun. Calhoun should have him developing into a PG, and all Walker does is look for his shot. Maybe that's good for Calhoun, but it isn't good for Walker.

[Dat2U]

My ranking thus far:

1. PF/SF Perry Jones, 19 yrs old, Baylor, freshman

With the first pick, you shoot for the moon. P. Jones IMO is the only guy with legit star potential.

2. PF Jared Sullinger, 18 yrs old, Ohio State, freshman

Rock solid frosh. Reminds me a bit of Luis Scola. Will get 18 & 10 but D is a major concern.

3. PF/SF Terrence Jones, 18 yrs old, Kentucky, freshman

Do-it-all type player. Is he more of a 3 or 4?

4. CE Enes Kanter, 18 yrs old, Kentucky, freshman

I like the fact he's skilled with a solid frame. Pre-draft measurements will be key.

5. SF Harrison Barnes, 18 yrs old, North Carolina, freshman

I get that Marvin Williams type vibe with him. That's not a good thing.

6. CE Jonas Valaciunas, 18 yrs old, Lietuvos Rytas

Raw prospect. Andris Biedrins type with better touch?

7. PF/SF Derrick Williams, 19 yrs old, Arizona, sophomore
8. SF Jordan Hamilton, 20 yrs old, Texas, sophomore
9. SF Chris Singleton, 21 yrs old, Florida State, junior
10. PF/SF Jan Vesely, 20 yrs old, KK Paritzan Belgrade
11. PF Donatas Motiejunas, 20 yrs old, Benetton Treviso
12. PF John Henson, 19 yrs old, North Carolina, sophomore
13. PF Mason Plumlee, 20 yrs old, Duke, sophomore

[mhd]

I think Perry Jones is the only guy worth drafting for the Wiz. Everyone else kind of seems redundant with out talent base (although I'd probably take Kanter because he at least fills a need). I wonder what we could trade the pick for (especially to PG needy teams). It would have to be for a legit SF or big/young player signed longterm.

[Rafael122]

I think Perry Jones is the only guy worth drafting for the Wiz. Everyone else kind of seems redundant with out talent base (although I'd probably take Kanter because he at least fills a need). I wonder what we could trade the pick for (especially to PG needy teams). It would have to be for a legit SF or big/young player signed longterm.

This is option B for me, trading the pick. Looking into next year even though we're only in December, I'm assuming Wall/Young/Lewis/Blatche/McGee will be our starting 5. Hinrich, Booker, Seraphin rounds out our bench. I think we need a bruiser at the 5. Maybe the 4.

We have quality starters but not enough depth. Look at the Lakers, their starting 5, and then their bench. They are 2 deep at every position. How many teams in the league can say that? 5?

[Ruzious]

I think Perry Jones is the only guy worth drafting for the Wiz. Everyone else kind of seems redundant with out talent base (although I'd probably take Kanter because he at least fills a need). I wonder what we could trade the pick for (especially to PG needy teams). It would have to be for a legit SF or big/young player signed longterm.

Problem is - there are no legit top 3 pick quality players in this draft. There are a fair amount of quality players, but nobody really stands out as a game-changer. Right now, I'm solidly and definitively... on the fence with Jones and Barnes. The only game I've seen Jones in - he was playing against the best defensive forward in college basketball (Singleton), so maybe I haven't given him a fair shake. This is a draft that things might not really shake out until tournament time.

[rockymac52]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quxsxSe1 ... _embedded#!

I love the way Perry Jones dunks the ball. Almost all of his dunks look the same. He jumps up high in the air, seems to hang there for a second, and then SLAMS the ball down insanely fast and powerful. It's cool to watch haha.

[closg00]

Need More Than a Wall: Five Draft Prospects The Washington Wizards Should Draft

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5331 ... ould-draft