(Lock Please) The LeBron James - 22-23 NBA Playoff Thread - (Part 3)

[OhayoKD]

Specifcially sweeping the hawks and forcing the warriors to pull the 73-win death lineup from their sleeve with kyrie and love having minimal involvement. Cavs were a +10 PSRS per sansteere in 2015. By their best possible measures cavs with kyrie and love(without lebron) were a negative defense and a neutral offense.

Only things that tops it is Russell's 69

If you assume that Hawks '15 were really 60W-level team that got swept by -15 net margin, then yeah. LeBron obviously still had a realistic shot for being the best player in a league that year, but Cavs' team success that year was very contextual in my eyes. Obviously, Warriors crumbling under the pressure at the beginning of the finals on its own may be an argument for healthy Cavs' chances in the finals, but Warriors completely controlling the series since g4 makes it very tricky to evaluate.

For a long time in my eyes, 2015 finals have been overrated in these general assessments while 2008 ECSF are really underrated
That's why these two playoff runs are very close to each other on my list. '17, '16, '12, '13, '18, '20, '09 and '14 are higher. Kind of ridiculous that advancing to the finals in age of 22 is like 11th-best playoff run in my eyes, lol.

You don't have to assume any such thing. The PSRS is derived from the hawks srs which always sold them as pretenders(50-something wins).

Disagree on 08. The big difference between 2015 and 2008 is the cavs were actually a solid defense without lebron while the 15 cavs were outright bad. Additionally while the 15 warriors hit a new level, the 2008 celtics didn't really figure out their rotation until the confernece finals.

Lebron's playmaking was also on a completely different level in 2015.

I'd actually argue that 2006 is a better season and postseason than either 2007 or 2008. Scoring title(on better efficiency) is one thing, but the cavs at full-strength played 56-win ball, were a +6.6 offense, and Lebron performed better vs the pistons than he did vs the celtics in a similar situation

[The Master]

You don't have to assume any such thing. The PSRS is derived from the hawks srs which always sold them as pretenders(50-something wins).

Hawks weren't +5 SRS level team in the playoffs. I like such analysis, but not putting (too) much emphasis on it.

I'd actually argue that 2006 is a better season and postseason than either 2007 or 2008. Scoring title(on better efficiency) is one thing, but the cavs at full-strength played 56-win ball, were a +6.6 offense, and Lebron performed better vs the pistons than he did vs the celtics in a similar situation

It wasn't a similar situation: Pistons '06 were -3.1 rDRTG team that got crushed by Heat in the next round, while Celtics were -8.6 rDRTG that won a title (by defeating +6 and +7 SRS teams). Pistons '06 were +6 SRS team and they won G7 in a blowout while Celtics '08 were +9 SRS team and Cavs were down by 1 in the last two minutes in G7 of that game with possession.

I'm always kind of surprised that this series isn't mentioned more often within a popular discourse as LeBron was much closer to eliminate Boston '08 (legit championship team) than Jordan at any point in 85-90 period. Because he had average stats, but that's why I said the more you analyze that series, the more impressive close series against Boston is. This is also very circumstantial as Celtics were slumping in that series etc. but I remember my surprise how great actually LeBron was playing since G3 in comparison to what I remembered about this series from my first viewing.

[The Master]

Btw. I'm more than optimistic about WCF matchup watching level of defense of both Suns/Nuggets if we pass Warriors.

[MyUniBroDavis]

2023 maybe, 2019 nah. Jrue was a big upgrade, brooks(at least according to the data) got much better(though I suspect big factors in the alleged fluctuation is portis in non-giannis minutes and the bucks losing robin/lopez and only having three functional front-court pieces, 70's is free to fact-check me tho). 2019 Bucks were also "competent" defensively. Them being some loaded defensive team is misapplying 2023 stuff backwards

My recollection is the bucks without Giannis outside the games they played their bench were still top 10 on defense, and it’s been like that their whole run

The games AD didn’t play they were 29th.

Middleton/brogdan/lopez/hill/Bledsoe is a stacked 2-6 on defense lol (not in order obviously)

Brogdan missed the second half of the season(and bucks elevated in the playoffs without). And middleton and hill were nuetral. Bledsoe was super good against harden but was inconsistent in the playoffs(bleh vs the raptors).

I also think this set of teammates playing at this level is good defensively without davis if they have a passable backup center.

I also am guessing playing undersized interior threats with a bunch of good interior defenders helps a fair bit

The Lakers interior defense is only good because of AD, the others do some helpside blocks but they aren’t good for the positions they play outside of lebron at times, since you are talking about us playing small forwards up a position, whereas the bucks defense had brook lopez whose tracking rim protection stuff was basically best in the league level

The casts really aren’t comparable, this Lakers cast without AD is probably a below league average defense, and in the games AD missed they were bottom 5, that bucks cast without Giannis was still a top 5 defense in those games he missed and generally have always held up reasonably well when Giannis is out


What AD is doing this playoffs defensively is probably one of the best defensive runs we’ve seen so far, giannis’s aren’t particularly close. Giannis is a helpside shot blocker like JJJ, which isn’t a bad thing, but AD alone has essentially outdone the entire bucks interior system by himself defensively unless you really start overrating our non AD rim protection (which really is nonexistent outside of some chase downs from bron here and there)

[OhayoKD]

You don't have to assume any such thing. The PSRS is derived from the hawks srs which always sold them as pretenders(50-something wins).

Hawks weren't +5 SRS level team in the playoffs. I like such analysis, but not putting (too) much emphasis on it.

I'd actually argue that 2006 is a better season and postseason than either 2007 or 2008. Scoring title(on better efficiency) is one thing, but the cavs at full-strength played 56-win ball, were a +6.6 offense, and Lebron performed better vs the pistons than he did vs the celtics in a similar situation

It wasn't a similar situation: Pistons '06 were -3.1 rDRTG team that got crushed by Heat in the next round, while Celtics were -8.6 rDRTG that won a title (by defeating +6 and +7 SRS teams). Pistons '06 were +6 SRS team and they won G7 in a blowout while Celtics '08 were +9 SRS team and Cavs were down by 1 in the last two minutes in G7 of that game with possession.

I'm always kind of surprised that this series isn't mentioned more often within a popular discourse as LeBron was much closer to eliminate Boston '08 (legit championship team) than Jordan at any point in 85-90 period. Because he had average stats, but that's why I said the more you analyze that series, the more impressive close series against Boston is. This is also very circumstantial as Celtics were slumping in that series etc. but I remember my surprise how great actually LeBron was playing since G3 in comparison to what I remembered about this series from my first viewing.

i don't rate that 08 series as high because alot of that series being close came down to the defense with playoff wallace being very very legit. Am open to being persuaded though. I've seen decent arguments for Lebron being underrated defensively prior to 09.

I can buy the srs being misleading with the hawks, but i think the opposite is true with the bulls and i have the warriors hitting a different gear than they were operating at before the finals. Regardless i think even low-end assessments still puts 2015 as bonkers.

[GSP]

Btw. I'm more than optimistic about WCF matchup watching level of defense of both Suns/Nuggets if we pass Warriors.

Yeah theres no guarding Jokic but no worries outside that

I said a while back the winner of Lakers Warriors is winning the title and ppl are starting to finally realize whats been obvious for weeks now

[MyUniBroDavis]

Btw. I'm more than optimistic about WCF matchup watching level of defense of both Suns/Nuggets if we pass Warriors.

Yeah theres no guarding Jokic but no worries outside that

I said a while back the winner of Lakers Warriors is winning the title and ppl are starting to finally realize whats been obvious for weeks now

I’ve been like, for the most part confident in us the whole year, but denver or the Suns are pretty rough with how brons been lately

[Heej]

Both of those offenses are a lot better than the Warriors' tho

[MyUniBroDavis]

Both of those offenses are a lot better than the Warriors' tho

The warriors defense I’d say is better than either of theirs either too

[rk2023]

Btw. I'm more than optimistic about WCF matchup watching level of defense of both Suns/Nuggets if we pass Warriors.

How come?

[khaltheball]

The Lakers will have to endure a Warriors slant on officiating to win game 4. At best the ft disparity will be balanced due to the whining by fans and media.

That alone will benefit the Warriors because they hack to compensate for their size (or lack of) and they are also a jump shooting team.

The Lakers are an aggressive team that puts pressure on the rim. Any artificial leveling of the calls will be to their detriment.


Home teams tend to get better whistle slightly so it should be ok. Also unless the refs go too crazy one way I think we’ll be fine unless gsw shoot like g2 which I imagine they have one more game in then : g5 mostly likely . I don’t know if that matters nuch Denver seemed to get fairly decent calls vs suns last night with a chance to go up 3-1. I was expecting g3 to be hard fought . Important to note our team is young OUTSUDE Lebron ( AD is 29/30 but ‘old’ ???) but warriors trio who are really the engine are all older n worse then they were . Meanwhile I expect our guys to be recovering faster especially the young guys. If dlo can cook for one more game I think we should be able to take this in 6. Lebron n AD gonna take this g4 I hope as a g7 nearly: win this then you can chill a bit in g5 and close in 6. Jordan piole has been trash but gsw pathway to winning is him going nuckear imo but reaves n Dlo and Schroeder all can cook him to the rim. I’m excited for tonight. I think there’s not too much chemistry among the warriors they needed 38fga curry and 20 rebounds from looney to scrape by Sacramento despite making their all nba cebtre garbage ( AD should had that award but oh well )

My hope is that game four ends up being a swallow the whistle, nobody is getting calls type of game, instead of a Lakers are getting clobbered (but only getting some calls at the rim), while the Warriors are living on touch jump shooting calls (artificial balance) type game.

[Joao Saraiva]

People criticized Ham a lot (and rightfully so) at some point of the season, but the game plan for G3 was fantastic. Taking Davis away from Draymond was actually pretty good, and the defensive scheme worked to perfection.

If the Lakers win tonight I don't think they'll lose a 3-1 lead to be honest.

[khaltheball]

Woops I missed up on the quoting hoping it’s clear I respond from the home teams bit. Pls god/allah let the lakers go up 3-1. In back to back series they were underdogs ( vs gsw even after 1-1 stealing homecourt which was weird ).

[khaltheball]

Also woukd love to remain undefeated at home : our average margin of victory at home is crazy while we always fight on road and don’t roll over

[khaltheball]

Btw. I'm more than optimistic about WCF matchup watching level of defense of both Suns/Nuggets if we pass Warriors.

Yeah theres no guarding Jokic but no worries outside that

I said a while back the winner of Lakers Warriors is winning the title and ppl are starting to finally realize whats been obvious for weeks now

I’ve been like, for the most part confident in us the whole year, but denver or the Suns are pretty rough with how brons been lately

Suns have fuvk all rim pressure yet are getting wide open layups and jokic is nowhere to be seen. Suns are going nuckear from their duo but also they getting east inside looks. I think we will be underdogs again ( very slightly ) if we make it past gsw. But it will be based on homecourt advantage especially vs Denver . Thankfully suns dragging that series out to hoping atleast 7. If we can : tie it up 1-1 and steal homecourt cs those two teams I expect that we’ll become the favourites out west. Neither of those teams look particularly scary either . Boston or Philly are chokers imo and while have more talent 1-10 but less reliable top end guys. That matters and they’ll have homecourt and as a result slight favourites. We played those teams to OT/win/ narrow losses with brick on the roster and I don’t think they got better. Lebron showing me something last two games. If he plays like this I think I finally believe there’s a legit title shot ( despite being underdogs without homecourt every round ). Really need to take car if business tonight . We should get more rebounds and as long as we play physical to the paint and the refs aren’t too dodgy : the warriors are gonna have to shoot over 40% + from three to win . Just shooting 38% average won’t be enough I think we can scrape that win . I wonder why they don’t take more midranges ( yes I know bad maths/analytics but babe had success taking them more ).

[CKRT]

It's pretty funny every time this playoffs that the Lakers have gone up in either series, people are already speculating about how they can win the next round as if this series isn't losable. Warriors could easily take HCA back tonight and take control of the series in Game 5.

[pedrobrazil1000]

assuming Davis will come out flat tonight, im hoping LeBron will come out agressive from the start

[Heej]

Both of those offenses are a lot better than the Warriors' tho

The warriors defense I’d say is better than either of theirs either too

Yea for sure but Jokic and Booker+KD are legitimately unguardable. It's gonna be another worrisome 6 or 7 game slog. And then if the Celtics come out the East, the way they matchup with the Lakers is gonna be even tougher.

The KD Warriors don't count in my eyes, so imo this is looking like the most difficult and grueling slate of opponents LeBron has had since 2012 or 2013

[Ian Scuffling]

assuming Davis will come out flat tonight, im hoping LeBron will come out agressive from the start

I feel ya. I just kind of don't believe it, though. I am the eternal optimist and I really think AD will come out and have a great game.

[RRR3]

You don't have to assume any such thing. The PSRS is derived from the hawks srs which always sold them as pretenders(50-something wins).

Hawks weren't +5 SRS level team in the playoffs. I like such analysis, but not putting (too) much emphasis on it.

I'd actually argue that 2006 is a better season and postseason than either 2007 or 2008. Scoring title(on better efficiency) is one thing, but the cavs at full-strength played 56-win ball, were a +6.6 offense, and Lebron performed better vs the pistons than he did vs the celtics in a similar situation

It wasn't a similar situation: Pistons '06 were -3.1 rDRTG team that got crushed by Heat in the next round, while Celtics were -8.6 rDRTG that won a title (by defeating +6 and +7 SRS teams). Pistons '06 were +6 SRS team and they won G7 in a blowout while Celtics '08 were +9 SRS team and Cavs were down by 1 in the last two minutes in G7 of that game with possession.

I'm always kind of surprised that this series isn't mentioned more often within a popular discourse as LeBron was much closer to eliminate Boston '08 (legit championship team) than Jordan at any point in 85-90 period. Because he had average stats, but that's why I said the more you analyze that series, the more impressive close series against Boston is. This is also very circumstantial as Celtics were slumping in that series etc. but I remember my surprise how great actually LeBron was playing since G3 in comparison to what I remembered about this series from my first viewing.

i don't rate that 08 series as high because alot of that series being close came down to the defense with playoff wallace being very very legit. Am open to being persuaded though. I've seen decent arguments for Lebron being underrated defensively prior to 09.

I can buy the srs being misleading with the hawks, but i think the opposite is true with the bulls and i have the warriors hitting a different gear than they were operating at before the finals. Regardless i think even low-end assessments still puts 2015 as bonkers.

Speaking of the 08 series agains the Celtics crazy that LeBron was 2/18 with 10 turnovers in game 1. That has to easily be the worst he’s ever played. Maybe the worst statline of any superstar ever tbh. Just unfathomable to imagine him that bad. But it was before he hit his prime to be fair.