Did Zach Lowe identify some convincing points for being low on Raptors?

[Jadoogar]

Lowe has always been a pretty bad analyst. I don't know why people like him.

lol yes, everyone that is negative on the Raptors is a bad analyst. Only Kendrick Perkins is a good analyst.

Ingram has played 65 games once in his career
Barnes didn't improve at all last year.
Poeltl isn't a great fit for the roster
The team is still light on shooting, the bench is mostly unproven.

There are valid reasons for pessimism.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Poeltl was an asset before that contract. Maybe he's still movable.

[tsherkin]

Ingram has played 65 games once in his career
Barnes didn't improve at all last year.
Poeltl isn't a great fit for the roster
The team is still light on shooting, the bench is mostly unproven.

There are valid reasons for pessimism.

Yes, BI's health is a concern. Yes, deploying Scottie in a very badly-matched role was an issue for is while we were tanking, though that seems less likely to happen this year.

Poeltl is a fine fit. Our problems are bigger than him not being a 3pt spammer at the 5.

The bench is indeed unproven and we're light on shooting, but we're also getting two quality volume 3pt shooters either back or inbound, so that one's less of a concern.

I dunno, man. There's two avenues of approach here. We could be pessimistic, but we've had a bunch of crappy tanking seasons now, and we have a recent title, so why not just look for reasons to enjoy until and unless the team shows us otherwise?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

It's year six of a re-build, the architect just got booted. I've tuned out the glowing projections at this point.

[tsherkin]

It's year six of a re-build, the architect just got booted. I've tuned out the glowing projections at this point.

Doesn't have to be a glowing projection. Most people who are on the optimistic side of this team are thinking low/mid 40s, and then wondering what the team will do to try and get us beyond that.

[JB7]

Yeah, to guys on their team. Very few teams are taking on money this year. Most are shedding. It's a buyer's market if you have money left.

Long term it won't be a problem. Teams that are shedding will add again. Their options to get better are 1) risky RFA market 2) UFA market (quick, name the best UFAs available in the next 2 off-seasons) 3) Trade for one of these overpriced max deals 4) Trade for good but not great players on reasonable deals.

The players that will truly get squeezed are the Chris Boucher, George Niang-types. Those will fall off dramatically. The Raptors shouldn't be criticized for handing out money unless they give Ochai a big extension.

Trading for BI at least, at this point. It dun look good. Not only the over pay, but the pick. You can say that about a few of our contracts now though. They looked OK two years ago, but they don't fit the landscape going forward.

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Long term it won't be a problem. Teams that are shedding will add again. Their options to get better are 1) risky RFA market 2) UFA market (quick, name the best UFAs available in the next 2 off-seasons) 3) Trade for one of these overpriced max deals 4) Trade for good but not great players on reasonable deals.

The players that will truly get squeezed are the Chris Boucher, George Niang-types. Those will fall off dramatically. The Raptors shouldn't be criticized for handing out money unless they give Ochai a big extension.

Trading for BI at least, at this point. It dun look good. Not only the over pay, but the pick. You can say that about a few of our contracts now though. They looked OK two years ago, but they don't fit the landscape going forward.

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

Fair market value for BI is around what? 28M, maybe 30M. It's an L.

[ontnut]

Raptors have no business being the 8th highest payroll in the NBA

That's what you get when you have no value contracts on the books and giving RFA IQ $32M for 5 years is indefensible. If Bobby Webster is responsible for the payroll mess, then I hope he doesn't get the top job.

Indefensible? When Fox just got $25m MORE AAV, and is almost 2 years older? IQ's per-36 stats seem to be better overall than Fox's too.
IQ definitely needs a prove it season now, but to say it's indefensible when even in a down year, it looked like good value compared to the Fox extension....

[Godaddycurse]

Trading for BI at least, at this point. It dun look good. Not only the over pay, but the pick. You can say that about a few of our contracts now though. They looked OK two years ago, but they don't fit the landscape going forward.

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

Fair market value for BI is around what? 28M, maybe 30M. It's an L.

stop living in 2022 and get used to the new cap figures

[ontnut]

Poeltl was an asset before that contract. Maybe he's still movable.

Ayton's making like $34m next season when considering the buyout + new contract. That's kinda crazy.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

We threw in a pick for the option to pay 40M. We got hosed.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

Fair market value for BI is around what? 28M, maybe 30M. It's an L.

stop living in 2022 and get used to the new cap figures

Would we be worse if we kept the pick and gave Giddey 28-30M. Probably not.

[ontnut]

Trading for BI at least, at this point. It dun look good. Not only the over pay, but the pick. You can say that about a few of our contracts now though. They looked OK two years ago, but they don't fit the landscape going forward.

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

Fair market value for BI is around what? 28M, maybe 30M. It's an L.

$26.5-$28m puts him in Wiggins, Vassell, Rozier, Simons range.
$30m is like CJ McCollum, Porzingis (both expiring).
Poole is $33m, Grant $34m, Jru $35m.
Ingram's market value is above all these guys. C'mon now.

[Jadoogar]

Ingram has played 65 games once in his career
Barnes didn't improve at all last year.
Poeltl isn't a great fit for the roster
The team is still light on shooting, the bench is mostly unproven.

There are valid reasons for pessimism.

Yes, BI's health is a concern. Yes, deploying Scottie in a very badly-matched role was an issue for is while we were tanking, though that seems less likely to happen this year.

Poeltl is a fine fit. Our problems are bigger than him not being a 3pt spammer at the 5.

The bench is indeed unproven and we're light on shooting, but we're also getting two quality volume 3pt shooters either back or inbound, so that one's less of a concern.

I dunno, man. There's two avenues of approach here. We could be pessimistic, but we've had a bunch of crappy tanking seasons now, and we have a recent title, so why not just look for reasons to enjoy until and unless the team shows us otherwise?

it's fine to be optimistic but to call Zach Lowe, one of the most informed analysts in the media, stupid for being fairly pessimistic is just blind homerism.

[tsherkin]

it's fine to be optimistic but to call Zach Lowe, one of the most informed analysts in the media, stupid for being fairly pessimistic is just blind homerism.

Unclear why you are quoting me to talk about that remark, because that wasn't me.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

For those complaining about the IQ or BI deals, just look at the deal Fox got. 4 year extension. 30% of the cap and growing. In a year, IQ & BI deals will look like bargains.

Fair market value for BI is around what? 28M, maybe 30M. It's an L.

$26.5-$28m puts him in Wiggins, Vassell, Rozier, Simons range.
$30m is like CJ McCollum, Porzingis (both expiring).
Poole is $33m, Grant $34m, Jru $35m.
Ingram's market value is above all these guys. C'mon now.

He under performed his last contract, right?

[Jadoogar]

it's fine to be optimistic but to call Zach Lowe, one of the most informed analysts in the media, stupid for being fairly pessimistic is just blind homerism.

Unclear why you are quoting me to talk about that remark, because that wasn't me.

the person i responded to was

[tsherkin]

it's fine to be optimistic but to call Zach Lowe, one of the most informed analysts in the media, stupid for being fairly pessimistic is just blind homerism.

Unclear why you are quoting me to talk about that remark, because that wasn't me.

the person i responded to was

Then why did you quote me and not them? Just curious.

Yes, calling Lowe stupid is a little ridiculous, of course.

[Jadoogar]

Unclear why you are quoting me to talk about that remark, because that wasn't me.

the person i responded to was

Then why did you quote me and not them? Just curious.

Yes, calling Lowe stupid is a little ridiculous, of course.

lol go back to the first post you replied to of mine. I was talking to someone else.

[tsherkin]

lol go back to the first post you replied to of mine. I was talking to someone else.

Right, but that comment has nothing to do with anything I was saying.

Anyway. There's space for pessimism. There's space for optimism. Pessimism eventually gets super, super exhausting. Optimism, as long as it isn't ridiculous, is less exhausting. We've been dwelling in the negative about this team for years. We need to move onto a different vibe, otherwise it just grows totally toxic. I don't think anyone is deluding themselves into thinking this is a contender, or that there aren't many barriers to us becoming a top-tier team, but we have to start SOMEwhere.