Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

PG like Booker openly coming out and saying the gameplan defensively is to pack the paint and do what they can to slow down Bam and cut the rim off from him. Several teams just coming out and saying this is their gameplan when they face us, now we have to find a counter with Bam. This is good for his growth

[MettaWorldPanda]

I won’t take much convincing lol

Herro and Martin for Bogi, Burks, and Sasser might not be the worst idea tbh.

I'd probably do it just because I'm SO done with Herro, and I like all of Bogi Sasser and Burks.

BUT, getting a main piece in Bojan who is 35YO is..not good long term.

We need in prime Jerami Grant in our life, then call up Bouyea and Alondes. Get some **** athleticism in here.


We have 75 Mil$ invested in 3 guards that can't defend in Herro, Duncan and Rozier,
and we 5 Mil$ invest in all our PFs. Jovic low rookie deal, HighSmith minimum, Martin isn't even a real PF.

How TF does this make ANY sense from a roster construction side?

You keep mentioning Jerami Grant but i don’t see a path to trade for him. It’s one thing to discuss what looks good for our team on paper and another to discuss a realistic path at a trade that fits with our business dealings(Klutch-Cronin) our trade pieces, and future cap. Herro to a third team is not going to suffice. Trading Herro for Bogi, Burks, and Sasser is because the team is looking to compete in the short term but also free up money for next year and beyond because of potential cap problems. Even swapping Grant’s contract for Herro evenly doesn’t help that problem. Just gives you want to see on paper but not considering everything else.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

The inability to get over a 105 is crazy to me lmao! Duncan has a 121 as a starter on a good sample size, might be a good idea to give him more run (I wish as a starter) to improve the offense.

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

The inability to get over a 105 is crazy to me lmao! Duncan has a 121 as a starter on a good sample size, might be a good idea to give him more run (I wish as a starter) to improve the offense.

His numbers are aggregated to these stats already, they haven't moved the needle overall. Just because you can give us 121 as a starter and nothing from the bench spells that your only way of being a fit to this team is if your gravity is tied to the starters, your value lessens if we cannot count on you outside of being a starter. Its a bad build this team overall is just lacking flexibility, everyone is a kind of nitch players that can't be used in different ways only very specific, it forces our lineups to be really stringent and when live ball is happening, you can see it just doesn't work when it calls for some on the spot changes.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Sixers are finished imo. Bucks looks weak. Cavs and Knicks look very good but we’ll see if it translates to the playoffs. Celtics are the Celtics.

I’m not too worried about any of these teams if we can just upgrade the roster some at the deadline

[AirP.]

He’s talking to the Knicks not too us. The relationship strain with Knicks is no where near what happened between Riley and Paul. I believe the Knicks are in talks about trading for Brogdon and apparently there was a little bit of an agent rivalry going on between the two that there trying to look past. Lebron is not coming here

I'm not a LeBron fan although I do understand he's probably the 2nd best NBA player of all time. It just seems a little odd for a report of Riley in California (although its been mentioned he has a place out there) and now the meeting with Leon Rose. May not mean anything but it could possibly be 2 data points at an interesting time knowing the history of the parties.

Riley is in LA plenty so hard to draw any conclusions on that. And what does Klutch meeting with Leon have to do with us? Knicks hate us just as much

To put pressure on LA to make a trade this deadline hence the timing of the possible meeting(s). LeBron can opt out so if he can create an illusion of possible destinations outside of New York he could force the Laker's hand on trades. It's what Lebron does time after time, hence the normally short contracts, to basically make franchises cater to him or possibly lose him.

Could also be putting out feelers on team's interest in drafting/acquiring Bronny who Lebron wants to play with, if someone takes him before the Lakers can (or if the Lakers decide not to go get him in a draft day trade) he might have the ability to get to that team while not losing too much money.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

The inability to get over a 105 is crazy to me lmao! Duncan has a 121 as a starter on a good sample size, might be a good idea to give him more run (I wish as a starter) to improve the offense.

His numbers are aggregated to these stats already, they haven't moved the needle overall. Just because you can give us 121 as a starter and nothing from the bench spells that your only way of being a fit to this team is if your gravity is tied to the starters, your value lessens if we cannot count on you outside of being a starter. Its a bad build this team overall is just lacking flexibility, everyone is a kind of nitch players that can't be used in different ways only very specific, it forces our lineups to be really stringent and when live ball is happening, you can see it just doesn't work when it calls for some on the spot changes.

You play your best lineups, it’s really that simple at this point. If your biggest weakness has been offense and Herro who takes a massive bulk of the offense has a 105 ORTG but Duncan who just plays off others and plays his role exactly as he should has a 121 ORTG then we’ll, it’s really a no brainer.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I almost wonder if someone like KO would shake free in the buyout market if no one ends up trying to trade for him.

Could save the Jazz a few million and free up some run for their younger guys while giving KO the opportunity to sign with a contender

Jazz have no reason to buy him out as the team has been very competitive. Report came out is they have a good amount of suitors and rightfully so since they are not many 7 foot bigs with his skill set. His contract is only 12 million so easy to trade for.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

Sixers are finished imo. Bucks looks weak. Cavs and Knicks look very good but we’ll see if it translates to the playoffs. Celtics are the Celtics.

I’m not too worried about any of these teams if we can just upgrade the roster some at the deadline

I think Celtics with additions of KP we have no answers for on our team currently. Knicks this year will out grind our team as currently constructed. Bucks look weak but to expect Jimmy to mimic last years play is asking for a lot, I think well be seeing him do this less and less moving forward, we need to have other players be able to fill those gaps, currently we don't. Outside of that I think Cavs, Pacers, Orlando are all team we should handle. This includes Philly without Embiid, hell even with him I still favor us, since we know how to play him in the playoffs. Celtics, Knicks 100% beat us in the Eastern playoffs, Milwaukee is 50/50% for me.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I almost wonder if someone like KO would shake free in the buyout market if no one ends up trying to trade for him.

Could save the Jazz a few million and free up some run for their younger guys while giving KO the opportunity to sign with a contender

Jazz have no reason to buy him out as the team has been very competitive. Report came out is they have a good amount of suitors and rightfully so since they are not many 7 foot bigs with his skill set. His contract is only 12 million so easy to trade for.

We’ll see what happens, someone has like 75 hours to trade for him.

If not he should be a buyout candidate, despite being competitive they’re a 2 game losing streak from being the 12th seed (which they should want) and it could work out well for both parties.

[IceColdCubano]

The inability to get over a 105 is crazy to me lmao! Duncan has a 121 as a starter on a good sample size, might be a good idea to give him more run (I wish as a starter) to improve the offense.

His numbers are aggregated to these stats already, they haven't moved the needle overall. Just because you can give us 121 as a starter and nothing from the bench spells that your only way of being a fit to this team is if your gravity is tied to the starters, your value lessens if we cannot count on you outside of being a starter. Its a bad build this team overall is just lacking flexibility, everyone is a kind of nitch players that can't be used in different ways only very specific, it forces our lineups to be really stringent and when live ball is happening, you can see it just doesn't work when it calls for some on the spot changes.

You play your best lineups, it’s really that simple at this point. If your biggest weakness has been offense and Herro who takes a massive bulk of the offense has a 105 ORTG but Duncan who just plays off others and plays his role exactly as he should has a 121 ORTG then we’ll, it’s really a no brainer.

For the fans who are looking at hard stats and have these discussions it makes all the sense in the world. FO and coaching deal with a lot of variables, roles, expectations, Ownership, Player Agents, future value of player, etc outside of just move this here and test it out. They may just be unwilling to do this, also its not guaranteed that Duncan will revert to this 121 Offensive rating player we had earlier in the year, he has gone through these very long stretches of terrible play from one day to the next, and we lots of data on that.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

This our build for now folks until the end of this season, where we may or may not go out and make a serious change.

Looking at this report and you would think the Heat are trying everything damn possible to get our from under either Herro or Duncan's salary by the deadline. I'm glad you posted this because I feel like there are some who have no idea or care to look into the ramifications of our salary cap situation. It's important to educate

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Sixers are finished imo. Bucks looks weak. Cavs and Knicks look very good but we’ll see if it translates to the playoffs. Celtics are the Celtics.

I’m not too worried about any of these teams if we can just upgrade the roster some at the deadline

I think Celtics with additions of KP we have no answers for on our team currently. Knicks this year will out grind our team as currently constructed. Bucks look weak but to expect Jimmy to mimic last years play is asking for a lot, I think well be seeing him do this less and less moving forward, we need to have other players be able to fill those gaps, currently we don't. Outside of that I think Cavs, Pacers, Orlando are all team we should handle. This includes Philly without Embiid, hell even with him I still favor us, since we know how to play him in the playoffs. Celtics, Knicks 100% beat us in the Eastern playoffs, Milwaukee is 50/50% for me.

Perfect time to upgrade! I wish we would’ve went all in for Beal AND KP this summer, we’d be looking a lot better right now as both of those guys are perfect fits.

We have an answer for KP, but do you want Bam on him or Tatum? We need another piece in here that can play high level defense imo and put him on Tatum or Brown, Jimmy on the other, and Bam on KP. KP for his career has shot 15-34 (44%) against Bam, he’s scored 5 points total on him in 2 games this season.

For comparison Bam has shot 25-47 (53%)for his career against KP, 11-21 this season for 28 points.

Looking at this seasons stats against the Celtics he seems to be spread out mainly guarding KP Tatum and Brown with a little bit against Jrue and White. Tatum Brown Jrue and White are shooting a combined 4-14 (29%) against him. Add KP to that and it’s 6-18 (33%)

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

If this team comes out 2-3 out of those next 5 games, they would be right back to same spot they were after the 7 game losing streak. The hope is you come out 4-1 here at all cost to have a chance as turning the season around.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

His numbers are aggregated to these stats already, they haven't moved the needle overall. Just because you can give us 121 as a starter and nothing from the bench spells that your only way of being a fit to this team is if your gravity is tied to the starters, your value lessens if we cannot count on you outside of being a starter. Its a bad build this team overall is just lacking flexibility, everyone is a kind of nitch players that can't be used in different ways only very specific, it forces our lineups to be really stringent and when live ball is happening, you can see it just doesn't work when it calls for some on the spot changes.

You play your best lineups, it’s really that simple at this point. If your biggest weakness has been offense and Herro who takes a massive bulk of the offense has a 105 ORTG but Duncan who just plays off others and plays his role exactly as he should has a 121 ORTG then we’ll, it’s really a no brainer.

For the fans who are looking at hard stats and have these discussions it makes all the sense in the world. FO and coaching deal with a lot of variables, roles, expectations, Ownership, Player Agents, future value of player, etc outside of just move this here and test it out. They may just be unwilling to do this, also its not guaranteed that Duncan will revert to this 121 Offensive rating player we had earlier in the year, he has gone through these very long stretches of terrible play from one day to the next, and we lots of data on that.

So the main goal isn’t winning if those other variables outweigh everything else

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

If this team comes out 2-3 out of those next 5 games, they would be right back to same spot they were after the 7 game losing streak. The hope is you come out 4-1 here at all cost to have a chance as turning the season around.

4-1 would be nice but I don’t see it unfortunately

[MettaWorldPanda]

Also keep in mind with buyout players

2023-24 Luxury Tax Totals
Denotes the Heat current standing in terms of the luxury tax threshold. Teams that spend over the threshold pay fines (estimated below).
TYPE TOTALS
2023 NBA Luxury Tax Threshold $165,294,000
Total Taxable Salaries $173,787,841
Current Luxury Tax Space $-8,493,841
Est. Luxury Tax Bill $13,614,224

If they Heat sign anybody right now it's basically going to cost them double the amount of what they pay in hard salary because of the tax. We are only 1.787 million away from getting below the 2nd apron. That's one Dru Smith salary dump away. We are not going to add right now unless we make a trade that gets us more under the 1st apron.

Salary cap: $136 million
Luxury tax: $165 million
First apron: $172 million
Second apron: $182.5 million

What are the penalties for the first apron?
The first apron hits when a team's payroll exceeds $172 million. At this point, the following restrictions are triggered:

Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade if that player keeps them above the apron
Teams cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the $12.2 million midlevel exception
Salary matching in trades must be within 110 percent, rather than 125 percent for teams not above the apron


What are the penalties for the second apron?
All of the penalties for the first apron apply to the second apron as well, which is triggered when a team's salary exceeds $182.5 million. For the 2023-24 season, one additional penalty is added when crossing the second apron:

No access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception
Starting at the end of the 2023-24 season, even more restrictions will be added to the second apron. These include:

Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
Teams cannot include cash in a trade
Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons
These penalties are much more stringent than under the old CBA. Previously, owners with deep pockets could go well into the luxury tax as long as they were willing to pay. Now, teams who enter the second apron will have difficulty adding any sort of new talent via trades or free agent acquisitions.

[IceColdCubano]

Read on Twitter

If this team comes out 2-3 out of those next 5 games, they would be right back to same spot they were after the 7 game losing streak. The hope is you come out 4-1 here at all cost to have a chance as turning the season around.

4-1 would be nice but I don’t see it unfortunately

There are 2 games left prior to the trade deadline expiring, I think they need to win both for FO to look at this team as a viable contender for them to use up some assets for a trade and make another swing. If they loss the next 2 I think they call this build and just wait and see what they do in the playoffs if they make it. The build ends, after this season, losing is actually going to make them shy away from making another trade, because it proves to them it just won't be enough to make a difference at losing more assets.