Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 8

[TorontoBarneys]

Will be interesting to see how he does compared to Cade tonight. He had a great showing vs. Mobley the other night so let's see how he performs next to the #1 pick.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I thought his game against Cleveland was much more intentional than most of the ones I've seen this year. His work in the midrange were within the context of the game, and he was working harder to get deeper position. I was a little annoyed that he choked against Strus, and he did have good passing options when it was clear he couldn't get into his move easily, but in terms of development those are more important shots than just idly dribbling down and pulling up from 2 or executing a practice move against CoJo.

The FTr will climb, eventually. I believe in his 3PT shot eventually becoming decent, although I don't believe he should be taking pull-ups unless he has to. Now that the schedule has turned I think he's just going to feast, especially as we head to the AS selection period.

[DreamTeam09]

He's shooter ng 60% on the left side in the mid range. Becoming his go to move. Almost kawhi esque, just more strength, similar soft touch

[Scase]

I'm confused here, you said :

He shouldn't be taking 50% of his shots from 3, however 10-15% of his 3s are too low. He's only averaging 2.4 threes a game the last 5 games and he actually needs to shoot the 3 more now.

My bad, I just read the wrong column lol.

Did you mean to say FTs? If so, sure I agree he should be trying to get to the line more, but he's not gonna do that parked out at the 3pt line. I've been saying all season, he needs to be working from the mid range and into the post more than the 3 point line. His shot diet is going in the opposite direction if you want him taking more FTs, but you've been also pretty staunch about him having a significant portion of his FGA being from 3, those are very contradictory.

I don't want him to take 35% of his shots from 3 like he was doing earlier, but I would like over 20% though. What you consider a lot and what I consider a lot seems to be different.

Ideally that game against the Heat where he went 9/17 FG, 2/5 3P, 3/5 FT is the sweet spot imo. 23 points on 17 shots.

What I don't want is that Pels game where he took 23 shots, 12 threes, made 2, and it was clear it wasn't anywhere near his night from 3 but he kept chucking.

Lastly, why does it matter if he's not getting to the line more, he stopped shooting as many 3's the last 5 games, and isn't getting to the line, yet he's at basically 61% TS%. He's literally taking more FGA than he did the rest of the season (16.4 vs 18) and he's WAYYYYYY more efficient 60.9% vs 53.6% TS%. That is cause for celebration, it's usually the opposite direction.

These averages are really being carried mostly by his game against the Nets. where he scored 33 points on 18 shots.

Since that game,
it's 20 points on 19 shots,
21 points on 18 shots
18 points on 15 shots
and one of his better games, 24 points on 20 shots.

So really scoring wise 1 great game, 1 ok game and 3 meh games.

He's putting more pressure on the defence than before, he's a much better offensive option now, what reasoning is there to change that shot diet to a much less efficient one? Just to get him more 3PA and FTA? I've asked this before, why are we trying to jam a round peg into a square hole, just cause? It results in nothing but worse performance and likely hits to his confidence for no positive outcome.

Barnes earlier in the year was averaging 6FTs, what happened to that guy? Him getting to the FT line at least 5 times would be a game changer imo.

Also i've plenty acknowledged the middy in other threads, I just want it accentuated with other things like a better FTr and slightly higher 3 point attempts.

Again, don't want him at 35% like he was at earlier. He's capable at about 5 a night imo, 7 on a good day (if he's 3/7 on his 3), 3-4 attempts on a bad one. He just has to know when to let it fly and when it's time to go to the middy if he can't hit a 3 that night.

You've mentioned that you want him to do these things, but you're not saying why, other than our 3PA/M as a team being really low. Why is it on Scottie to do that? Why not say IQ needs to take more, he is a 37%+ shooter and he's only taking 6 3PA/g, why should the guy who can barely scrape 30% from 3 be the one forcing those shots? It makes absolutely no sense, who cares if we shoot/make less 3's than the opposing team, if we win, we win. And if we aren't winning, the solution isn't getting one of the worst players on the team to try and bump those numbers up.

I was making an observation. In order for this thing to work with Barnes, if his 3 point attempts are going to be low, we seriously need to change the starting lineup. Offensively it's too flawed. Yak basically has to go because offensively him and Barnes are redundant.

I'm more looking past this year.

As for your analogy, hopefully he fits the round hole in the future.

It sounds like you want to make him take less efficient shots, just to hit some quota, instead of playing well. I don't understand the reasoning at all.

I just want him to use some good judgement really. If his 3 is on, shoot more, if he's started the game 0-3 then it's probably best to go to the middy/get to the FT line.

Essentially play by ear.

Also the issue with him being a middy specialist mainly is he'd have to be one of the greatest mid range shooters ever to make up for a lack of 3 and a low FTr.

No worries, I figured you miss typed or something lol.

The nets game is definitely doing some heavy lifting, but overall taking a 3 with a 30% chance to go in, or a mid at like 50-57%, it just makes no sense for him to be taking such a heavy diet of 3's. I think 3 a game is the most I'd be comfortable with him on 18FGA.

His most efficient shots this season, by far are his mid range, and at the rim, at 56.7% (likely going to come down) and 76% (likely stays) respectively. Yet those are some of the lowest volume areas out of his entire diet, he's taking the majority (55%+) of his shots from 2 of his 3 worst spots on the floor.

These are the same criticisms I have of RJ, there are shots he is good at, and shots he isn't. We should be putting him a place where he can refine those spots. Scottie has a higher potential to be a better scorer based on his mid range game alone, but coupled with his vision his game is a lot harder to shut down, and he's not restricted to only using 1 hand.

Scottie needs a go to spot/move to be any kind of offensive threat, and IMO that's the mid range. I think we're largely in agreement in everything but the volume of 3's, I just don't see any value in him jacking up 5 a game until he shows he can consistently hit at least 2 a night on a regular basis.

His FTr should go up by nature of him playing closer to the basket, the better his MR game gets, the tighter they will play him, giving him more chances to get to the basket, which then leads to more FTs. Scotties highest FTA games of the season (5 or more, 10 games total) have him at a lower 3pa/g than his lowest FTA games of the season (3 or less, 10 games total), and while this is only 20 games, this is mirrored from last year as well.

In 2023-24
Games with 5 FTA or more (26 total) he averaged 6.8FTA and shot 4.2 3PA.
Games with 4 FTA or less (34 total) he averaged 2.2FTA and shot 5.5 3PA.

Based on his current year averages of 73% and 29% accuracy and you get expected points per attempt of 0.73 and 0.87 for FTs and 3's respectively.

Extrapolate those two splits to an 82 game season and end up with :
6.8/4.2 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 299.63
Total points generated from free throws: 407.05
Total points generated: 706.68

2.2/5.5 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 392.37
Total points generated from free throws: 131.69
Total points generated: 524.06

Which amounts to a difference of 2.2ppg, even if we used his career average rounded up of 31% from 3, he would need to take about 7.5 3PA per game to score more points than in the scenario with 4.2 3PA, and that would also require us assuming that his FTA would remain the same, which it probably wouldn't.

That's a lot of numbers, but the general synopsis is, without Scottie shooting something in the realm top 30 in 3p% in the NBA (5+ attempts per game, 20 or more games played this season), he is generating significantly less PPG than if he shot less 3pa and played closer to the basket.

There is just no realistic scenario for him to ever be more effective shooting from 3, rather than closer with more FTA. This is why I don't like the round hole/square peg idea, he's just so far away from fitting into that hole, that it's detrimental to his overall success.

Hopefully that wasn't confusing lol

[Vampirate]

The nets game is definitely doing some heavy lifting, but overall taking a 3 with a 30% chance to go in, or a mid at like 50-57%, it just makes no sense for him to be taking such a heavy diet of 3's. I think 3 a game is the most I'd be comfortable with him on 18FGA.

As you'll see in the following diagram it's not the amount of threes is the issue, it's where he's taking them. Through 2 Seasons the top of the key is actually his best shooting area. He's taking 41 mid range shots from the left side of the court and 10 mid range shots on the right. He's taking 132 three point shots in total, and only 14 shots from the corner he's shooting from the most on the court.... The top of the key he's at 35-36% this year so that zone isn't the issue (and he started very slow there to begin the season).



He's just been ass at ATB on the left or the right.

Ironically his Pull up 3s statistically are better (they are bad, but last year was worse) What's actually pulling his 3P percentage down is his catch and shoot, last year he was at 38.5%, this year he's at 31% (same volume btw).

Wierdly IQ, Barnes and Gradey's best zone is the top of the key so far statistically (Barnes 35%, Gradey 41% and IQ 50%) I honestly don't get that.

Another odd stat is Barnes has been the better pull up 3 player than Gradey thus far.

Barnes is at 25.5% on 1.9 attempts, Gradey is at 25% on 1.6 attempts.

The difference is Gradey is a 38.2% catch and shoot player on 5.2 attempts, Barnes is a 31% catch and shoot on 3.4 attempts.

If Barnes catch and shoot mirrored last year his 3P% would be 33.9% right now...

His most efficient shots this season, by far are his mid range, and at the rim, at 56.7% (likely going to come down) and 76% (likely stays) respectively. Yet those are some of the lowest volume areas out of his entire diet, he's taking the majority (55%+) of his shots from 2 of his 3 worst spots on the floor.

I don't disagree, but this is only really if he can hold a 50+% from 10-16 feet for the rest of the year, should it drop to .450 for example, that answer changes. I just hope his catch and shoot 3 comes bounces back.

These are the same criticisms I have of RJ, there are shots he is good at, and shots he isn't. We should be putting him a place where he can refine those spots. Scottie has a higher potential to be a better scorer based on his mid range game alone, but coupled with his vision his game is a lot harder to shut down, and he's not restricted to only using 1 hand.

I mean we are actually doing that, RJ seems close to a finished product, not a bad player and could be looked at as a winning player on the correct team (not this one).

The thing you are missing is Barnes was a 38.5% catch and shoot player last year. Please get back to that because he did do it for 60 games. It's not an unreasonable ask.

Scottie needs a go to spot/move to be any kind of offensive threat, and IMO that's the mid range. I think we're largely in agreement in everything but the volume of 3's, I just don't see any value in him jacking up 5 a game until he shows he can consistently hit at least 2 a night on a regular basis.

If his catch and shoot rebounds to last years form you won't be complaining as much. But as for his go to move, he has one imo, just needs to refine it and add onto it because it will get scored.

His FTr should go up by nature of him playing closer to the basket, the better his MR game gets, the tighter they will play him, giving him more chances to get to the basket, which then leads to more FTs. Scotties highest FTA games of the season (5 or more, 10 games total) have him at a lower 3pa/g than his lowest FTA games of the season (3 or less, 10 games total), and while this is only 20 games, this is mirrored from last year as well.

Typically FTr goes up on drives and less on pull ups unless the opposition fears it and you bait them into a FT.

In 2023-24
Games with 5 FTA or more (26 total) he averaged 6.8FTA and shot 4.2 3PA.
Games with 4 FTA or less (34 total) he averaged 2.2FTA and shot 5.5 3PA.

Based on his current year averages of 73% and 29% accuracy and you get expected points per attempt of 0.73 and 0.87 for FTs and 3's respectively.

Extrapolate those two splits to an 82 game season and end up with :
6.8/4.2 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 299.63
Total points generated from free throws: 407.05
Total points generated: 706.68

2.2/5.5 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 392.37
Total points generated from free throws: 131.69
Total points generated: 524.06

Which amounts to a difference of 2.2ppg, even if we used his career average rounded up of 31% from 3, he would need to take about 7.5 3PA per game to score more points than in the scenario with 4.2 3PA, and that would also require us assuming that his FTA would remain the same, which it probably wouldn't.

With all the injuries etc, I think he's really just in a slump, I do not believe he's a 30% 3 point shooter, closer to 33%.

That's a lot of numbers, but the general synopsis is, without Scottie shooting something in the realm top 30 in 3p% in the NBA (5+ attempts per game, 20 or more games played this season), he is generating significantly less PPG than if he shot less 3pa and played closer to the basket.

There is just no realistic scenario for him to ever be more effective shooting from 3, rather than closer with more FTA. This is why I don't like the round hole/square peg idea, he's just so far away from fitting into that hole, that it's detrimental to his overall success.

Hopefully that wasn't confusing lol

Again, 38.5% catch and shoot player last year on similar attempts, just get back to that and he'll look much better. I think he's still in a slump.

[Tom_Foolery]

Package him out.

[tsherkin]

That was not the most impressive performance I've ever seen from Scottie, though he was hardly alone in that regard.

[TorontoBarneys]

That was not the most impressive performance I've ever seen from Scottie, though he was hardly alone in that regard.

His mid-range shot is like the only thing he has going for him offensively at this point. Is he experimenting? It's year 4. This stuff is so bizarre to watch.

[tsherkin]

That was not the most impressive performance I've ever seen from Scottie, though he was hardly alone in that regard.

His mid-range shot is like the only thing he has going for him offensively at this point. Is he experimenting? It's year 4. This stuff is so bizarre to watch.

That's not entirely accurate. He had 6 FTAs, which was an FTr of .429. He had 7 shots in the paint. He was 3/7, which wasn't great, but it also a little atypical for him. 5, 5, 6, 7 and 9 feet, and two inside the RA. 1/3 from 3 other than the heave. Crap first half, then 4/8 in the second half. Obviously smashed it on the boards.

Scottie has limitations. If we're expecting him to be a monster scorer, then we're wasting our time.

He had a rough shooting night, but in the 9 preceding games, it's worth noting that he was shooting 52.8%. He was kind of due for a stinker, and everyone has them from time to time.

[sbsat]

hes most def regressed this year. Brutal

[PhilBlackson]

2nd Option Scott.

[tsherkin]

hes most def regressed this year. Brutal

This also isn't quite true. He's actually showing us a bunch more, but has had a bunch of injuries. And like I said, he's shot well for 9 games. Having a stinker was inevitable, and it's not like the rest of the team was doing anything competent to make his life easier.

[HumbleRen]

I don’t think he’s regressed, he’s improved as a mid range player, his FTR is the same, his rim percentage is better.

The sole difference between this Scottie and last year’s Scottie is his 3’s. The difference between this Scottie and the fringe all nba Scottie we saw last year is his 3’s.

He’s not a strong enough downhill player to make up for his lack of 3’s. His offensive ceiling is capped at this level unless he becomes an adequate shooter from the 3 again.

[tsherkin]

The sole difference between this Scottie and last year’s Scottie is his 3’s. The difference between this Scottie and the fringe all nba Scottie we saw last year is his 3’s.

No, that isn't entirely true. The other difference is that his proportion of shots in the RA has dropped by about 7.5%. And those are shots he's hitting at 75% (73 last year).

The three was helpful, but unfortunately he's actually replaced rim shots with middies, instead of 3s or long 2s, and that's costing him some.

[TimeForChange]

I am happy about this

[Scase]

The nets game is definitely doing some heavy lifting, but overall taking a 3 with a 30% chance to go in, or a mid at like 50-57%, it just makes no sense for him to be taking such a heavy diet of 3's. I think 3 a game is the most I'd be comfortable with him on 18FGA.

As you'll see in the following diagram it's not the amount of threes is the issue, it's where he's taking them. Through 2 Seasons the top of the key is actually his best shooting area. He's taking 41 mid range shots from the left side of the court and 10 mid range shots on the right. He's taking 132 three point shots in total, and only 14 shots from the corner he's shooting from the most on the court.... The top of the key he's at 35-36% this year so that zone isn't the issue (and he started very slow there to begin the season).



He's just been ass at ATB on the left or the right.

Ironically his Pull up 3s statistically are better (they are bad, but last year was worse) What's actually pulling his 3P percentage down is his catch and shoot, last year he was at 38.5%, this year he's at 31% (same volume btw).

Wierdly IQ, Barnes and Gradey's best zone is the top of the key so far statistically (Barnes 35%, Gradey 41% and IQ 50%) I honestly don't get that.

Another odd stat is Barnes has been the better pull up 3 player than Gradey thus far.

Barnes is at 25.5% on 1.9 attempts, Gradey is at 25% on 1.6 attempts.

The difference is Gradey is a 38.2% catch and shoot player on 5.2 attempts, Barnes is a 31% catch and shoot on 3.4 attempts.

If Barnes catch and shoot mirrored last year his 3P% would be 33.9% right now...

His most efficient shots this season, by far are his mid range, and at the rim, at 56.7% (likely going to come down) and 76% (likely stays) respectively. Yet those are some of the lowest volume areas out of his entire diet, he's taking the majority (55%+) of his shots from 2 of his 3 worst spots on the floor.

I don't disagree, but this is only really if he can hold a 50+% from 10-16 feet for the rest of the year, should it drop to .450 for example, that answer changes. I just hope his catch and shoot 3 comes bounces back.

These are the same criticisms I have of RJ, there are shots he is good at, and shots he isn't. We should be putting him a place where he can refine those spots. Scottie has a higher potential to be a better scorer based on his mid range game alone, but coupled with his vision his game is a lot harder to shut down, and he's not restricted to only using 1 hand.

I mean we are actually doing that, RJ seems close to a finished product, not a bad player and could be looked at as a winning player on the correct team (not this one).

The thing you are missing is Barnes was a 38.5% catch and shoot player last year. Please get back to that because he did do it for 60 games. It's not an unreasonable ask.

Scottie needs a go to spot/move to be any kind of offensive threat, and IMO that's the mid range. I think we're largely in agreement in everything but the volume of 3's, I just don't see any value in him jacking up 5 a game until he shows he can consistently hit at least 2 a night on a regular basis.

If his catch and shoot rebounds to last years form you won't be complaining as much. But as for his go to move, he has one imo, just needs to refine it and add onto it because it will get scored.

His FTr should go up by nature of him playing closer to the basket, the better his MR game gets, the tighter they will play him, giving him more chances to get to the basket, which then leads to more FTs. Scotties highest FTA games of the season (5 or more, 10 games total) have him at a lower 3pa/g than his lowest FTA games of the season (3 or less, 10 games total), and while this is only 20 games, this is mirrored from last year as well.

Typically FTr goes up on drives and less on pull ups unless the opposition fears it and you bait them into a FT.

In 2023-24
Games with 5 FTA or more (26 total) he averaged 6.8FTA and shot 4.2 3PA.
Games with 4 FTA or less (34 total) he averaged 2.2FTA and shot 5.5 3PA.

Based on his current year averages of 73% and 29% accuracy and you get expected points per attempt of 0.73 and 0.87 for FTs and 3's respectively.

Extrapolate those two splits to an 82 game season and end up with :
6.8/4.2 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 299.63
Total points generated from free throws: 407.05
Total points generated: 706.68

2.2/5.5 averages
Total points generated from 3-point shots: 392.37
Total points generated from free throws: 131.69
Total points generated: 524.06

Which amounts to a difference of 2.2ppg, even if we used his career average rounded up of 31% from 3, he would need to take about 7.5 3PA per game to score more points than in the scenario with 4.2 3PA, and that would also require us assuming that his FTA would remain the same, which it probably wouldn't.

With all the injuries etc, I think he's really just in a slump, I do not believe he's a 30% 3 point shooter, closer to 33%.

That's a lot of numbers, but the general synopsis is, without Scottie shooting something in the realm top 30 in 3p% in the NBA (5+ attempts per game, 20 or more games played this season), he is generating significantly less PPG than if he shot less 3pa and played closer to the basket.

There is just no realistic scenario for him to ever be more effective shooting from 3, rather than closer with more FTA. This is why I don't like the round hole/square peg idea, he's just so far away from fitting into that hole, that it's detrimental to his overall success.

Hopefully that wasn't confusing lol

Again, 38.5% catch and shoot player last year on similar attempts, just get back to that and he'll look much better. I think he's still in a slump.

Saying "Well if he just shot better here, his percentages would be better" is not a great argument. Like I fully agree, but that doesn't change anything, he isn't so it they aren't.

With all the injuries etc, I think he's really just in a slump, I do not believe he's a 30% 3 point shooter, closer to 33%.

Those numbers were from last season, so there were no injuries. And if you mean in general, well, we have 1 season of 30%, one of 28%, one of 34%, and then the current one of ~29%. If I were a betting man, my money would be on the 30% number and the 34% being an outlier. All that being said, even if he WERE a 33% shooter, thats still 9-10% lower than he would need to be, for him to generate more total points with 3s+FTs, vs him taking less 3's and more FTs based on his shot diet.

As I said, there is no statistically probably outcome, where he becomes either more productive, or more efficient, than him being a lower volume 3pt shooter and playing closer to the basket to generate more FTs. He would need to shoot 3's in the low 40's, or crank up his attempts to unrealistic volumes like 8/g. Neither of those are going to, or should happen.

And he doesn't get better practising his go to moves by shooting more long range shots, even if he were to take every single 3 from his highest success rate location, he is still dramatically below what he would need to be at to be better than the lower diet. There isn't a single stat that points to a greater 3p shot diet being beneficial.

[Scase]

The sole difference between this Scottie and last year’s Scottie is his 3’s. The difference between this Scottie and the fringe all nba Scottie we saw last year is his 3’s.

No, that isn't entirely true. The other difference is that his proportion of shots in the RA has dropped by about 7.5%. And those are shots he's hitting at 75% (73 last year).

The three was helpful, but unfortunately he's actually replaced rim shots with middies, instead of 3s or long 2s, and that's costing him some.

This is one of those "short term pain, long term gain" scenarios I'm, ok with. Ultimately I'd like for his 3Pr to suffer, but him focusing more on the MR to get better at it, is a better road to success for him than keeping up 5+ 3PA and not seeing a lot of improvement.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

[tsherkin]

This is one of those "short term pain, long term gain" scenarios I'm, ok with. Ultimately I'd like for his 3Pr to suffer, but him focusing more on the MR to get better at it, is a better road to success for him than keeping up 5+ 3PA and not seeing a lot of improvement.

We'll see how it goes, for sure. I would like for him to lower his 3PAr and get to the rim a little more, for sure. I do like seeing him working on his mid-range game, particularly since he's been a disaster clown from 3 this season, though he does need to keep developing that shot.

[Scase]

This is one of those "short term pain, long term gain" scenarios I'm, ok with. Ultimately I'd like for his 3Pr to suffer, but him focusing more on the MR to get better at it, is a better road to success for him than keeping up 5+ 3PA and not seeing a lot of improvement.

We'll see how it goes, for sure. I would like for him to lower his 3PAr and get to the rim a little more, for sure. I do like seeing him working on his mid-range game, particularly since he's been a disaster clown from 3 this season, though he does need to keep developing that shot.

Yeah I just think it should be on the back burner, like 3-3.5 attempts a game, his real money maker is gonna be the MR.