Wonder if we could work our way into this. With Terry not working out and Herro missing the first quarter of the season pretty much Monk would make some sense for us as a bench scorer who could compete for 6MOY. His playmaking has taken a big jump too.
Still feel like we might be trying to offload Terry and whatever else for Derozan after the Kuminga trade is finalized though.
Only way it'll work is if its wiggins going back to gsw.
Theres no reason for the warriors to take rozier and no other heat player has a 20M+ salary. Sending them wiggins would screw over the lakers though, so that might be enough for riles.
MartyConlonJr wrote:Herro's ranking look egregious because he was an All-Star, aka top 24 players in the league.
68 is almost 72 (24 x 3 = 72), like you would choose him in the 6th team of All Stars.
In reality he was never the 24th best player in the league, he beat out Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler for spots who were on the Heat roster at points, and both are/were better players.
A number of injuries or situations prevented better players from making the All-Star game but without looking I assume that would put Herro in the 30's or 40's. Maybe some players were on bad rosters and you have to be near a winning team to usually qualify, putting him maybe lower, but not 68 lower.
His ranking seems to be him paying for the playoff debacle I'd guess, as it really raised questions about him as a top player.
Herro would have been lower if everyone had been considered: Due to their long-term injuries, Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray and Fred VanVleet are not part of this season's rankings.
Herro is an elite shooter, but has no other elite skill. If you're going to compare him to primary ball-handlers with heavy scoring responsibilities, he'd be behind a lot of guys, likely out of the top-20. I don't think there is a strong case to have Herro in the top-50 in the NBA.
One thing that is clear in the rankings is that there is no distinction between role players and primary players, which is how you get Lu Dort and Alex Caruso ahead of guys who have way more responsibility on the basketball court and don't have the luxury of playing off of primary players.
And that's asinine. It's why Patrick Beverly thinks he can have an opinion on Trae Young vis a vis himself
Advanced stats and data-based analytics have given number nerds and wannabe contrarions this idea they have discovered something others haven't yet. This list exemplifies the glorification of the role player and sanctifies "impact" stats while sacrificing common sense.
We've seen a few examples where role players have been "exposed" as being a product of their environment and not these "stars" the analytics claim they are. Non-Detroit Ben Wallace, non-Utah Gobert, Mikal Bridges with the Nets and, to a lesser degree Jrue Holiday, are good examples.
SA37 wrote: Herro would have been lower if everyone had been considered: Due to their long-term injuries, Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray and Fred VanVleet are not part of this season's rankings.
Herro is an elite shooter, but has no other elite skill. If you're going to compare him to primary ball-handlers with heavy scoring responsibilities, he'd be behind a lot of guys, likely out of the top-20. I don't think there is a strong case to have Herro in the top-50 in the NBA.
One thing that is clear in the rankings is that there is no distinction between role players and primary players, which is how you get Lu Dort and Alex Caruso ahead of guys who have way more responsibility on the basketball court and don't have the luxury of playing off of primary players.
And that's asinine. It's why Patrick Beverly thinks he can have an opinion on Trae Young vis a vis himself
Advanced stats and data-based analytics have given number nerds and wannabe contrarions this idea they have discovered something others haven't yet. This list exemplifies the glorification of the role player and sanctifies "impact" stats while sacrificing common sense.
We've seen a few examples where role players have been "exposed" as being a product of their environment and not these "stars" the analytics claim they are. Non-Detroit Ben Wallace, non-Utah Gobert, Mikal Bridges with the Nets and, to a lesser degree Jrue Holiday, are good examples.
VaDe255 wrote: It isn't that he is happy to let others do it, he just can't scale up the volume and stay efficient, at least we're yet to see it. What's he going to do, take 18 middies a game and a few 3s? So he can score 22 ppg?
We've seen it in the Finals vs the Nuggets he was taking 20 FGAs a game and scored 22 ppg, Nuggets were happy to just let him score at 50% TS.
He was most efficient when he was taking 11-13 FGA early once he became a starter and increased his jumper volume every year since and it's been a decline in true shooting efficiency for 5 straight years!
They were fine with Tyler scoring 20 on 17-18 shots a night for years, then they tinkered his shot diet and it led to increased scoring and efficiency. Sometimes it’s that simple, you joke about the midrange but you take a good portion of those and turn them into rim attempts and a slight increase in 3 volume and that alone could do wonders for his efficiency. Add in finding a way to sell contact better and you could get some extra free throws to help as well to go hand in hand in the rim attempts.
Although I do think it’s a lot more of a necessity for your bigs to have good playmaking next to them to get the most out of them, maybe Davion takes a step there with his increased role and not having to guess if he was going to play or not every night like the norm for his career
Asking Bam to just “take more efficient shots” ignores that the opportunities he gets are structurally different from guards/wings. He doesn’t have the handle or burst to blow by anyone but the slowest bigs and even though Spo has been starting him next to Ware, Bam isn’t a modern PF who bends defenses with gravity and shooting.
Bam’s value has always been tied to his versatility, defense, playmaking from the elbows and opportunistic scoring.
The “just shoot more 3s or attack the rim like Tyler” idea doesn’t apply to him because he isn’t a shot creator, he’s a play finisher. Unlike a guard or wing, he can’t just spam PNRs and turn those into layups. Most of his rim touches come through traffic or post-ups, not clean drives.
His 3 point shot is very basic. Tyler, for example, was #1 in miles run per game last year (tied with Maxey, Bridges, Jalen Johnson), constantly relocating for quick release C&S looks, plus he’s significantly improved his pull up game. Bam’s threes can only come off passes from someone else creating the shot, he can’t just scale that up on his own.
The only thing Bam can realistically create for himself is in the midrange, often contested. That’s why he’s best suited as a complementary scorer rather than someone you expect to carry a high volume scoring load.
Excellent breakdown. This is what most of us already know I think. That said, I do think based on the situation of Tyler being out, we are going to try to get Bam to be more of a primary. I know there will be tears, but I genuinely do believe Bam is taking notes from Aja, so maybe this will finally be the year we see real refinement on offense for him.
Actually, glass half full perspective, this is an excellent opportunity for them all.
Bam has his last shot (its year 8, he has had so many) to finally show his stuff on offense Jovi can get some reps as a creator and develop chemistry with Bam Powell can get a feel for Heat offense without Tyler Tyler will have to show he can adjust and fit into whatever groove the others have going while he's out, while still be just as impactful as he was last year
They were fine with Tyler scoring 20 on 17-18 shots a night for years, then they tinkered his shot diet and it led to increased scoring and efficiency. Sometimes it’s that simple, you joke about the midrange but you take a good portion of those and turn them into rim attempts and a slight increase in 3 volume and that alone could do wonders for his efficiency. Add in finding a way to sell contact better and you could get some extra free throws to help as well to go hand in hand in the rim attempts.
Although I do think it’s a lot more of a necessity for your bigs to have good playmaking next to them to get the most out of them, maybe Davion takes a step there with his increased role and not having to guess if he was going to play or not every night like the norm for his career
Asking Bam to just “take more efficient shots” ignores that the opportunities he gets are structurally different from guards/wings. He doesn’t have the handle or burst to blow by anyone but the slowest bigs and even though Spo has been starting him next to Ware, Bam isn’t a modern PF who bends defenses with gravity and shooting.
Bam’s value has always been tied to his versatility, defense, playmaking from the elbows and opportunistic scoring.
The “just shoot more 3s or attack the rim like Tyler” idea doesn’t apply to him because he isn’t a shot creator, he’s a play finisher. Unlike a guard or wing, he can’t just spam PNRs and turn those into layups. Most of his rim touches come through traffic or post-ups, not clean drives.
His 3 point shot is very basic. Tyler, for example, was #1 in miles run per game last year (tied with Maxey, Bridges, Jalen Johnson), constantly relocating for quick release C&S looks, plus he’s significantly improved his pull up game. Bam’s threes can only come off passes from someone else creating the shot, he can’t just scale that up on his own.
The only thing Bam can realistically create for himself is in the midrange, often contested. That’s why he’s best suited as a complementary scorer rather than someone you expect to carry a high volume scoring load.
Excellent breakdown. This is what most of us already know I think. That said, I do think based on the situation of Tyler being out, we are going to try to get Bam to be more of a primary. I know there will be tears, but I genuinely do believe Bam is taking notes from Aja, so maybe this will finally be the year we see real refinement on offense for him.
Actually, glass half full perspective, this is an excellent opportunity for them all.
Bam has his last shot (its year 8, he has had so many) to finally show his stuff on offense Jovi can get some reps as a creator and develop chemistry with Bam Powell can get a feel for Heat offense without Tyler Tyler will have to show he can adjust and fit into whatever groove the others have going while he's out, while still be just as impactful as he was last year
True. This will be on Bam to see if he has it in him to take on a bigger role on offense. If that doesn't work out as planned, then we know his limitations and work around that.
Just for nostalgia purposes. Just found an old plaque in my daughter's drawer that I was cleaning out.
Might of been the last year of 3 on 3 tournaments. I remember we wore all black jerseys with black Sox and the black Barkley's.
I wish I was the type of person who kept my own memorabilia. I kept my daughters accomplishments but not mine. I use to take her around with when I played tournaments or hooped at different parks.
We had a do-si-do alley play that would pist people off. Sometimes pull a gun on us. Lol
Hallstar wrote: And that's asinine. It's why Patrick Beverly thinks he can have an opinion on Trae Young vis a vis himself
Advanced stats and data-based analytics have given number nerds and wannabe contrarions this idea they have discovered something others haven't yet. This list exemplifies the glorification of the role player and sanctifies "impact" stats while sacrificing common sense.
We've seen a few examples where role players have been "exposed" as being a product of their environment and not these "stars" the analytics claim they are. Non-Detroit Ben Wallace, non-Utah Gobert, Mikal Bridges with the Nets and, to a lesser degree Jrue Holiday, are good examples.
Jrue Holiday in what way though lol?
Don't hear much about him these days, do we?
He was a very good player, but some people were talking like he was one of the best guards in the league at one point. Holiday is good as, at best, a 3rd wheel. But really, he's just an elite role player and not on the same level as other stars. Derrick White is starting to get talked up the way Jrue Holiday was at one point. I think White is an excellent player, but he's been "hiding" behind Tatum and Brown, and that absolutely influences the types of opportunities he gets.
What differentiates stars from elite role players like Holiday is their longevity at being peak performers. There is a reason Holiday is "only" a 2-time all-star and never made an all-NBA team.
SA37 wrote: Advanced stats and data-based analytics have given number nerds and wannabe contrarions this idea they have discovered something others haven't yet. This list exemplifies the glorification of the role player and sanctifies "impact" stats while sacrificing common sense.
We've seen a few examples where role players have been "exposed" as being a product of their environment and not these "stars" the analytics claim they are. Non-Detroit Ben Wallace, non-Utah Gobert, Mikal Bridges with the Nets and, to a lesser degree Jrue Holiday, are good examples.
Jrue Holiday in what way though lol?
Don't hear much about him these days, do we?
He was a very good player, but some people were talking like he was one of the best guards in the league at one point. Holiday is good as, at best, a 3rd wheel. But really, he's just an elite role player and not on the same level as other stars. Derrick White is starting to get talked up the way Jrue Holiday was at one point. I think White is an excellent player, but he's been "hiding" behind Tatum and Brown, and that absolutely influences the types of opportunities he gets.
What differentiates stars from elite role players like Holiday is their longevity at being peak performers. There is a reason Holiday is "only" a 2-time all-star and never made an all-NBA team.
I was banging the table for Drew Holiday when he was a Pelican to be an addition to the Heat. Got a lot of slack for it.
SA37 wrote: Advanced stats and data-based analytics have given number nerds and wannabe contrarions this idea they have discovered something others haven't yet. This list exemplifies the glorification of the role player and sanctifies "impact" stats while sacrificing common sense.
We've seen a few examples where role players have been "exposed" as being a product of their environment and not these "stars" the analytics claim they are. Non-Detroit Ben Wallace, non-Utah Gobert, Mikal Bridges with the Nets and, to a lesser degree Jrue Holiday, are good examples.
Jrue Holiday in what way though lol?
Don't hear much about him these days, do we?
He was a very good player, but some people were talking like he was one of the best guards in the league at one point. Holiday is good as, at best, a 3rd wheel. But really, he's just an elite role player and not on the same level as other stars. Derrick White is starting to get talked up the way Jrue Holiday was at one point. I think White is an excellent player, but he's been "hiding" behind Tatum and Brown, and that absolutely influences the types of opportunities he gets.
What differentiates stars from elite role players like Holiday is their longevity at being peak performers. There is a reason Holiday is "only" a 2-time all-star and never made an all-NBA team.
I mean he just got old, he’s been a damn good player for awhile and was a key piece in 2 championships. Peak Holiday is pretty easily better than Tyler if that was the point being made
How good do you have to be to average along the lines of 20-10-5 yearly while being the best defender in the world and a major piece to several deep playoff runs to still be under-appreciated and have people pretend you have no offensive game lol?
He was a very good player, but some people were talking like he was one of the best guards in the league at one point. Holiday is good as, at best, a 3rd wheel. But really, he's just an elite role player and not on the same level as other stars. Derrick White is starting to get talked up the way Jrue Holiday was at one point. I think White is an excellent player, but he's been "hiding" behind Tatum and Brown, and that absolutely influences the types of opportunities he gets.
What differentiates stars from elite role players like Holiday is their longevity at being peak performers. There is a reason Holiday is "only" a 2-time all-star and never made an all-NBA team.
I was banging the table for Drew Holiday when he was a Pelican to be an addition to the Heat. Got a lot of slack for it.
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Same, he would’ve been amazing with Jimmy and Bam. 3 elite defenders that could give you 20 on any night. Jimmys favorite player too I believe he said
3ammy3uck3ts wrote: They were fine with Tyler scoring 20 on 17-18 shots a night for years, then they tinkered his shot diet and it led to increased scoring and efficiency. Sometimes it’s that simple, you joke about the midrange but you take a good portion of those and turn them into rim attempts and a slight increase in 3 volume and that alone could do wonders for his efficiency. Add in finding a way to sell contact better and you could get some extra free throws to help as well to go hand in hand in the rim attempts.
Although I do think it’s a lot more of a necessity for your bigs to have good playmaking next to them to get the most out of them, maybe Davion takes a step there with his increased role and not having to guess if he was going to play or not every night like the norm for his career
Asking Bam to just “take more efficient shots” ignores that the opportunities he gets are structurally different from guards/wings. He doesn’t have the handle or burst to blow by anyone but the slowest bigs and even though Spo has been starting him next to Ware, Bam isn’t a modern PF who bends defenses with gravity and shooting.
Bam’s value has always been tied to his versatility, defense, playmaking from the elbows and opportunistic scoring.
The “just shoot more 3s or attack the rim like Tyler” idea doesn’t apply to him because he isn’t a shot creator, he’s a play finisher. Unlike a guard or wing, he can’t just spam PNRs and turn those into layups. Most of his rim touches come through traffic or post-ups, not clean drives.
His 3 point shot is very basic. Tyler, for example, was #1 in miles run per game last year (tied with Maxey, Bridges, Jalen Johnson), constantly relocating for quick release C&S looks, plus he’s significantly improved his pull up game. Bam’s threes can only come off passes from someone else creating the shot, he can’t just scale that up on his own.
The only thing Bam can realistically create for himself is in the midrange, often contested. That’s why he’s best suited as a complementary scorer rather than someone you expect to carry a high volume scoring load.
He has a very good handle for a big and is quick. Hes been the best or 2nd best iso player on our team (for what it’s worth) for years and is tasked with creating more for himself than majority of the bigs around the league. He can absolutely put his head down and get to the rim as opposed to pulling up from mid range, it’s on him to want to do it and to finish the play. That’s where getting creative in drawing contact will help as well. They don’t have to be blow by layups/dunks, finish over someone if needed or draw a foul. Jab step left and attack right or vice versa, expect contact and finish through it and/or sell it
I agree his 3s are more set shots but although he took 3 a game last year I think we can all agree there was still several times he could’ve gotten up a 3 in the half court and didn’t, just let it fly. It’s a continued development and if he increases the volume while maintaining efficiency that’s when teams will be forced to step out and the gravity comes in place.
5 3s a night at 36% 4 midrange at 45% 7 rim or restricted area attempts at 60% 6 free throws at 77%
That’s 16 shots a night for 22PPG and a 64TS%. I don’t think any of those are outlandish expectations efficiency wise. It would just be building off his 2nd half of the season pretty much by taking higher quality shots where he was already averaging 21 a night on 60TS%
I like your framework but I think the projection has to be scaled back a bit if we want it to line up with Bam’s actual tendencies, the last 3 years have been this:
You made a small mistake on that TS%, which would be ~59% based on the numbers you gave.
I think Bam can get back into the ~35% rim attempt range and I would love to see it. The midrange can maybe go down to ~40% with around 25% of 3s.
Also drawing 6 fouls might be optimistic, but not impossible if he really was aggressive with more rim attacks. It would be fantastic though if Bam could do 22 PPG on 59% TS.
Personally I just think it’ll be more of the same with him hovering around the 55–58% TS mark, but I’d love to see him fix his shot selection. Just seems very difficult, especially with Herro out to start the year, who despite all the narratives was responsible for a lot of those Ware/Bam lobs.
VaDe255 wrote: Asking Bam to just “take more efficient shots” ignores that the opportunities he gets are structurally different from guards/wings. He doesn’t have the handle or burst to blow by anyone but the slowest bigs and even though Spo has been starting him next to Ware, Bam isn’t a modern PF who bends defenses with gravity and shooting.
Bam’s value has always been tied to his versatility, defense, playmaking from the elbows and opportunistic scoring.
The “just shoot more 3s or attack the rim like Tyler” idea doesn’t apply to him because he isn’t a shot creator, he’s a play finisher. Unlike a guard or wing, he can’t just spam PNRs and turn those into layups. Most of his rim touches come through traffic or post-ups, not clean drives.
His 3 point shot is very basic. Tyler, for example, was #1 in miles run per game last year (tied with Maxey, Bridges, Jalen Johnson), constantly relocating for quick release C&S looks, plus he’s significantly improved his pull up game. Bam’s threes can only come off passes from someone else creating the shot, he can’t just scale that up on his own.
The only thing Bam can realistically create for himself is in the midrange, often contested. That’s why he’s best suited as a complementary scorer rather than someone you expect to carry a high volume scoring load.
He has a very good handle for a big and is quick. Hes been the best or 2nd best iso player on our team (for what it’s worth) for years and is tasked with creating more for himself than majority of the bigs around the league. He can absolutely put his head down and get to the rim as opposed to pulling up from mid range, it’s on him to want to do it and to finish the play. That’s where getting creative in drawing contact will help as well. They don’t have to be blow by layups/dunks, finish over someone if needed or draw a foul. Jab step left and attack right or vice versa, expect contact and finish through it and/or sell it
I agree his 3s are more set shots but although he took 3 a game last year I think we can all agree there was still several times he could’ve gotten up a 3 in the half court and didn’t, just let it fly. It’s a continued development and if he increases the volume while maintaining efficiency that’s when teams will be forced to step out and the gravity comes in place.
5 3s a night at 36% 4 midrange at 45% 7 rim or restricted area attempts at 60% 6 free throws at 77%
That’s 16 shots a night for 22PPG and a 64TS%. I don’t think any of those are outlandish expectations efficiency wise. It would just be building off his 2nd half of the season pretty much by taking higher quality shots where he was already averaging 21 a night on 60TS%
I like your framework but I think the projection has to be scaled back a bit if we want it to line up with Bam’s actual tendencies, the last 3 years have been this:
You made a small mistake on that TS%, which would be ~59% based on the numbers you gave.
I think Bam can get back into the ~35% rim attempt range and I would love to see it. The midrange can maybe go down to ~40% with around 25% of 3s.
Also drawing 6 fouls might be optimistic, but not impossible if he really was aggressive with more rim attacks. It would be fantastic though if Bam could do 22 PPG on 59% TS.
Personally I just think it’ll be more of the same with him hovering around the 55–58% TS mark, but I’d love to see him fix his shot selection. Just seems very difficult, especially with Herro out to start the year, who despite all the narratives was responsible for a lot of those Ware/Bam lobs.
I see now, not sure where my error was I probably forgot a parenthesis somewhere.
Time will tell, I’m definitely ready to get this season going and see if we switched things up (with Bam as we discussed but also the team as a whole) and how we perform this year without all the Jimmy drama weighing us down and causing distractions. Get the brutal stretch to start the season out of the way and we “should” be able to have some really solid runs after.
